한중일에 있어 교역조건과 투자관계에 대한 비교 분석

김완중 ( Wan Joong Kim ),박천일 ( Chun Il Park ) 한중사회과학학회 2012 한중사회과학연구 Vol.10 No.4

This study shows that according to cointegration test, there is a long run equilibrium relation between the terms of trade and investment in Korea, China, and Japan. Analysis based on vector error correction model(VECM) shows that the terms of trade significantly affects investment in the three countries in the long run. However it is found that the direction and magnitude of the effect are different in the countries. While the deterioration of terms of trade gives rise to decrease of investment in Korea and Japan, it does increase in China. Also, the magnitude of the effect is different in the countries; the turn from the biggest to the smallest is Korea, China, and Japan. It seems to be related to openness of the economies. In addition, while the volatility of terms of trade has significantly negative effect on investment of China in the long run, it does not significantly impact on investment of Korea and Japan.

지역경제블록이 한국 수출입에 미치는 영향: 패널중력모형 분석

김완중 ( Wan Joong Kim ) 한국국제경제학회 2005 국제경제연구 Vol.11 No.2

한국의 대중국 해외직접투자의 수출유발 효과

김완중(Kim, Wan Joong) 영남대학교 중국연구센터 2016 중국과 중국학 Vol.- No.27

한국의 대세계 수출에서 IT 비중은 점차 조금씩 하락하고 있으며, 대세계 ODI에서 IT 산업의 ODI 비중 역시 연도별 기복을 보이기는 하나 점차 축소되고 있다. 대세계 수출 및 ODI에서 IT의 비중 축소와 대조적으로 대중국 수출과 ODI에서 IT 비중은 높게 유지되고 있다. 한국의 중국에 대한 수출 의존도는 지속적으로 확대되고 있으며, 그러한 의존도 심화는 IT 산업의 수출에 의해 주도되고 있다. 이러한 교역구조에서 IT산업의 대중국 수출 변화는 한국경제에 큰 영향을 주게 된다. 이러한 맥락에서 IT 산업에 있어서 한국의 대중국 수출결정요인을 정확히 이해하는 것은 국내 기업 및 정부의 정책 수립에 있어서 매우 중요하다 할 수 있다. 그동안 한국의 대중국 수출은 중국에 진출한 국내기업들의 한국으로부터의 중간재 및 자본재 수입과 깊은 관계가 있는 것으로 알려져 왔다. 본 연구는 IT 산업에 있어서 대중국 수출결정요인을 분석하였는바, 분석결과에 따르면 IT산업에 있어서의 대중국 수출은 직접투자 보다는 중국 위안화의 대미 달러환율과 중국의 경제성장에 의해 상대적으로 더 많은 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 한편 IT산업에 있어서의 한국의 대중국 수출은 한국 전체의 대중국 ODI에 의해서는 긍정적인 영향을 받는 것으로 분석되었으나, IT 산업 자체의 대중국 ODI에 의해서는 통계적으로 유의한 영향을 받지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 중국에 대한 IT산업의 ODI 확대가 최종재의 수출대체와 중간재 및 자본재의 수출유발효과를 동시에 가지고 있어 두 효과가 상쇄되면서 나타난 것으로 이해할 수 있다. 반면 IT가 아닌 여타 대부분 산업들의 대중국 ODI는 IT 수출에 긍정적인 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났는데 이는 여타 산업들의 대중국 ODI 과정에서 국내 IT제품에 대한 수요가 유발되고 있다는 것을 보여주는 것이라 할 수 있다. IT industry is the Korean main industry in production and exports. The industry is also core industry in Korean exports to China. The dependence on China in exports of IT industry is getting larger over time. This paper investigates the determinants of Korean exports to China, especially the role of oversea direct investment(ODI) in IT exports. The results shows that China’s income and yuan exchange rates to US dollar are key determinants of Korean IT exports to China. It also shows that although ODI to China in IT industry does not have significant impact on Korean IT exports to China, Korean total ODI to China does. In addition, Korean ODI to China in other industry rather than IT industry plays a positive role in IT exports to China. The result can be explained by inter-industry dependence in production; forward linkage effect. Especially Korean ODI to China in some industries such as other manufacturing industry, chemical industry, electrical equipment industry has more significant and positive impact on Korean IT export to China than others. Also, it is found that the impact of ODI on IT exports to China is smaller than the impact of Chinese GDP, yuan exchange rates, and IT prices.

사상성 조류매트 공법을 이용한 농어촌 소하천수의 영양염류 제거특성에 관한 연구

김완중(Wan Joong Kim),김영철(Young Chul Kim) 한국물환경학회 2000 한국물환경학회지 Vol.16 No.3

In this paper, roles and functions of filamentous algae were studied when they were applied for treating rural stream water having relatively low concentrations of nutrients and organics. It was found that predominant species of algae was Spirogyra sp. As these algae grew, it was found that they formed porous, thick and gelatinous mat like a sponge, so that they were not lost into the effluent, which is a main advantage of this algae mat system. Excessive loss of algal particles from oxidation ponds and other modified pond systems has been recognized as one of the most troublesome operational problems. Dissolved oxygen of this system was saturated more than 200 % and pH increased to 10 due to the photosynthetic activity, which are equivalent to normal levels of dissolved oxygen and pH characterized by high rate algal ponds. It was found out that 85 - 95 % of T-N and T-P removal efficiency was obtained within four days of hydraulic residence time. In addition, filamentous algae mat system produced effluent with a very lower level of nutrients than aquatic plant ponds using water hyacinth and reed. Meanwhile, organic matters (COD_(cr)) was not significantly reduced, since the initial concentration was very low.

동남아에 대한 한,중,일의 생산공정별 수출구조와 경쟁관계: 중국의 한,일수출 구축효과를 중심으로

김완중 ( Wan Joong Kim ) 한국동남아학회 2010 동남아시아연구 Vol.20 No.3

One of main findings of the competitiveness relation is rapid increase of Chinese influence on the southeast Asian market. While Japanese market share is decreasing, Chinese market share is continuously increasing in the market. It is the same regardless of types of production phases. Analysis based on gravity model shows that in general Chinese exports is crowding out Korean and Japanese export to the market. The magnitude of the effects on Korean exports is larger than on Japanese exports. Also, It is found that the directions of the effect of Chinese exports on Korean and Japanese exports are different by production phrases. For all processed goods, increase of Chinese exports decreases both Korean and Japanese exports to the market. However, for some final goods such as transport equipment and food & beverages for household, Chinese exports is increasing Korean and Japanese exports to the market.

한국의 대(對)동남아 수출과 수출결정요인의 장기적 균형관계 분석

김완중 ( Wan Joong Kim ) 한국동남아학회 2014 동남아시아연구 Vol.24 No.4

This paper shows that overall Korean exports to southeast Asian countries have long-run equilibrium relationship with its determinants such as trading partners` real GDP, real exchange rates, Korean FDI to those countries, and Korean production capacity. The results are consistent to the international trade theories. According to the results, Korean exports to those countries increases in the long-run as their real GDP, real exchange rates, Korean FDI to those countries, and Korean production capacity increases. The empirical results also show that estimated coefficients of the export determinants are not common for all interesting trading partners. To say, elasticities such as income elasticities and exchange rates elasticities of Korean exports to those countries are different for each trading partner. It seems that heterogeneous coefficients of export determinants reflect the differences in industrial structure and final demand structure of trading partners.

한국 고도성장기 농촌지역 소득증가 요인: 1970년대 농가소득과 농촌새마을운동 관계를 중심으로

김완중 ( Kim Wan Joong ) 경희대학교 사회과학연구원 2017 社會科學硏究 Vol.43 No.3

본 연구는 농촌새마을운동이 가장 활발했던 1970년대 농가의 소득구조를 살펴보고, 소득증대 요인을 분석함으로써 새마을운동이 농가소득에 미친 효과를 실증적으로 평가하고자 한다. 즉 농촌새마을운동이 당시 농가의 소득증대에 얼마나 직접적으로 관계가 있는지를 파악하고자 했다. 분석결과, 농외소득증대를 목적으로 한 다양한 새마을운동 사업에도 불구하고 당시 농가소득은 농업소득에 의해 주도되었던 것으로 확인되었다. 또한 당시 농가 소득에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 벼 수매 등 다양한 요인들을 분석한 결과, 농업소득증대의 상당부분은 벼 수매 정책에 기인했으며, 농외소득의 많은 부분 역시 새마을운동과 직접적으로 관계가 없는 각종 보조금 등에 의존했던 것으로 분석되었다. 특히 이농에 따른 농가수 감소 역시 농가당 소득증대와 깊은 관계가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 새마을운동을 통해 농가소득증대를 강조하고 이를 위해 많은 사업을 추진했음에도 불구하고 70년대 농가소득증대의 상당부분은 새마을운동과 직접적으로 관계없는 요인들에 의해서 주도되었다. This study evaluates the income improvement of Korean rural households in the period of 1970s when the Saemaul Undong was the most active. In the period, although the government’s active policy to increase non-farming income such as Saemaul-factory worker’s income and by-job income in rural area, most part of rural households’ income came from farming income. Based on analysis of income decomposition and income effect of government’s rice purchasing, it is found that the farming income improvement was mainly due to agriculture policy such as government’s direct rice purchasing from farmer at the high price. Also, considerable portion of non-farming income came from subsidy and wage obtained from factories surrounding urban area. To say, non-farming income like farming income mainly came from factors which are not related to Saemaul Undong. On the other hand, income improvement per rural household is explained in considerable portion by increase of immigration from rural to urban. In sum, considerable portion of real income improvement per household in the rural area was due to factors that was not directly related with Saemaul Undong.

ASEAN 역내경제협력 효과 분석: 역내교역을 중심으로

김완중 ( Wan Joong Kim ) 한국동남아학회 2009 동남아시아연구 Vol.19 No.3

인도네시아의 교역조건과 투자 관계

김완중(Wan Joong Kim) 한국아시아학회 2014 아시아연구 Vol.17 No.1

인도네시아 경제의 특징은 자원의존적 경제구조를 가지고 있다는 것이다. 본 연구에서는 자원의존적 경제인 인도네시아에서 교역조건 개선이 투자에 긍정적인 영향을 미쳤는지의 여부를 ARDL모형을 이용하여 분석한다. 1980-2010년 시계열자료를 분석한 결과, 인도네시아에 있어서 교역조건개선은 장기와 단기에 있어서 모두 투자에 긍정적인 영향을 주지 못하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 수출재가 노동집약재인 경우 교역조건의 개선은 투자를 증가시키기 보다는 감소시킬 수 있다는 마추야마(Matsuyama 1988) 이론, 자원의존적인 국가에 있어서 교역조건의 개선은 경제에 부정적인 영향을 줄수 있다는 지대이론, 그리고 ‘네덜란드병(Dutch desease)’ 가설 등과 관련이 있는 것으로 보인다. As well known, Indonesia is a resource-dependent country. In this paper, It is tested that improvement of terms-of-trade positively affects the economy. Based on ARDL analysis, I found that terms-of-trade could not improve investment(fixed capital formation) of the country in the short run and in the long run. Those results can be understood in some economic theories such as Matsuyama`s theory(1988), rent-seeking theory, and hypothesis of ``Dutch desease``. On the other hand, it is found that economic growth is a major determinant of Indonesian investment.

중국수출의 한국과 일본수출에 대한 파급효과

김완중 ( Wan Joong Kim ) 한중사회과학학회 2009 한중사회과학연구 Vol.7 No.2

In this paper, impacts of Chinese export volume on Korean and Japanes export volume are analyzed based on vector autoregression (VAR) model. It is found that although statistical significance of impulse response function (IRF) is not strong, the increase of Chinse export volume to United States has positive impact on Korean export volume to the market. But IRFs of Japanese export volume are sensitive depending on the number of lags included in the estimation equation. Japanese export volume responds positively to the shock in the case of one lag, but does negatively to three quarters from the period of the shock in the case of 6 lags. I investigate the effect of Chinese total exports increase on Korean and Japanese exports to China. I found that the two countries` cumulative IRF are positive to the shock. The results are consistent to the previous research results such as Eichengreen et al.(2004). I also estimate the effect of Chinese total export volume on Korean and Japanese total export volume. Although the statistical significance is not strong, the IRFs of Korean export volume to the shock are positive regardless of the number of lags included in the model. Contrast to Korean case, Japanese export volume responses to the shock depend on the number of lags. Including one lag in the model, Japanese export volume responds positively over all periods and the statistical significance of the IRFs is strong. On the other hand, in the model with 6 lags, IRFs of Japanese exports are negative by 6 quarters after the shock. So the results are not so clear in the case of Japanese case. Analysis of variance decomposition of Korean and Japanese export volume shows that yuan is more important than Chinese export volume and GDP in explaining Korean export changes over all periods in the one lag model, and in the short run in the 6 lags model. On the other hand, although yuan is more important than Chinese export volume in explaining Japanese export volume in the one lag model, the latter is more important than the former in the 6 lags model. It is also found that the relative importance of Chinese exports in explaining two countries` export changes is greater in Japanese case than Korean case.