"Glocalized" Decomposition from Adequate Currency Management in the Way Ahead for Korea, China, and Japan

Myoung Shik Choi(최명식) 한국무역학회 2009 한국무역학회 세미나 및 토론회 Vol.2009 No.2

The relationship between regional monetary coordination and adequate currency controls is still unexplored. However, there are reasons to believe that monetary coordination may affect major currency risks in the local regions and that aggregating foreign reserves may be misleading. We provide supportive evidences for central banks' policies or exchange rate regimes in terms of major currency risks. Our first model introduces the fundamental and non-fundamental channels in the floats. We find that macro-fundamental risks are substantively related with macro-fundamental variables and fundamental influences such as standard traders. In contrast, non-fundamental risks seemingly have a substantive relationship with non-fundamentals and non-fundamental influences such as noise traders with no full rationality and no truly efficient market. Hence, Korea, China and Japan and China together would view these pieces of evidence as preliminary support for their regional currency coordination. Furthermore, our second model acknowledges the regional risk sharing size under the floating and pegging regimes. We find that a floating supporter such as the central bank could increase regional exchange risk pooling, and that a pegging supporter was significantly more effective with regard to sharing regional risks, as we had anticipated. Especially, a single currency pegging would be a best alternative to the economy shared among Korea, Japan and China.

기축통화와 통화위험의 변화에 관한 연구

최명식(Myoung-Shik Choi) 한국관세학회 2007 관세학회지 Vol.8 No.3

Focusing on the recent experience this study investigates the currency risks of major and minor currencies for a detailed description of international settlement currencies. In the light of this, we build our analytical model and present an outline alternative approach. The testing results indicate that the currency risks of major currencies are significantly reduced more than those of minor currencies as we expect. These results are also true of the Korean won.

Efficient Foreign Exchange Rate Market and Persistently Varying Risk Premium

Myoung Shik Choi(최명식) 한국관세학회 2004 관세학회지 Vol.5 No.3

Japanese yen has been fluctuating over time. Japan currency market appears to be inefficient. For finding the causes and effects on the inefficiency, this paper investigates the foreign exchange markets of spot exchange rates and forward contracts of Japanese currency against U.S. dollar on the time series domain. Efficient market tests indicate that the forward rate is a biased estimator of its future spot ratefor the sample period. Moreover, risk premium tests explain that the risk premium is persistently changing over time causing inefficient market. In addition, we find the forward premium has a predictive power for the risk premium. In a final remark, this paper is highly motivated by setting up the characteristics of the risk premium to cause the inefficiency in thecash and forward markets.

What are the appropriate rolled-over series for futures prices : Currency futures contracts?

Myoung-Shik Choi(최명식) 한국관세학회 2004 관세학회지 Vol.5 No.1

In the foreign currency markets, risk-averse agents might adopt the exchange-traded currency futures contracts as hedging instruments to minimize the currency variation risk. For the particular lengthy horizon of hedging duration, these hedgers might prefer linking the nearest contracts series into a lengthy single series. This indicates that these hedgers should use an appropriate rolling-over method for splicing various futures contracts without any problem. For finding an appropriate rolling-over tool, this paper deciphers the linking method of Geiss (1995) and tests his linking index of the futures series. This testing result concludes that his linking method might be appropriate or inappropriate. This implies that if a refutable theoretical hypothesis is developed, his linking tool will be powerful.

A Study on the Effects of Multinational Production on Global and Domestic Value Chains Following Trade Restructuring and Corresponding International Economic Policies

최명식 ( Myoung Shik Choi ),이헌대 ( Hun Dae Lee ) 대외경제정책연구원 2020 Working Papers Vol.22 No.2

연구논문 : 통화량에 의한 환율변동에 대한 소고: 메이저통화와 비메이저통화

최명식 ( Myoung Shik Choi ) 아시아문화학술원 2015 인문사회 21 Vol.6 No.1

세계경제에서 주요 국가들이 경기를 부양하여 성장을 지속하기 위해 통화량을 증가시키고 선진국의 막대한 자금이 개도국으로 유입되어 개도국의 성장을 촉진한다. 그런데 환율이 국내외 통화량의 경제적 비교우위에 따라 결정되므로 메이저 통화가 비메이저 통화와 상이하게 움직일 수 있다. 본 논문은 통화의 대외가치와 통화량과의 관계를 통해 이러한 차이를 경험적으로 분석하였다. 2000년 이후를 분석한 결과, 첫째, 메이저통화의 경우 환율의 균형으로부터 장기 이탈현상이 초과 외환보유고와 초과 통화량과 정의 관계로 나타났다. 대체로 초과 외환보유고가 1% 늘어나면 유로-달러화 환율이 0.62% 불균형 되지만 초과 통화량이 1% 증가하면환율 불균형은 1.24%로 늘어난다. 둘째, 비메이저통화의 경우에 환율의 장기 이탈현상이 초과 외환보유고와 음의 관계이고 초과 통화량과 정의 관계를 나타냈다. 그리고 위안화가 메이저통화로서의 위상이 두드러졌다. 셋째, 원화의 경우 환율의 장기 이탈현상이 초과 외환보유고와 초과 통화량과 음의 관계를 보였다. 초과 외환보유고가 1% 늘어나면 원-달러화 환율의 불균형이 1.06%감소하고 초과 통화량이 1% 증가하면 환율 불균형은 0.88% 줄어든다. 넷째, 미국 달러화의 경우 환율의 장기 이탈현상이 소규모 외환보유고의 초과와부의 관계이지만 초과 통화량과는 양의 관련성을 나타내었다. This article would like to explain the currency exchange gap between major and non-major currencies. Our estimation results confirm that the misalignments of foreign exchange rates are influenced by the net growth of money stocks from the long-term desired level and the net growth of foreign reserves stockpiles from the desired one since 2000. First, the misalignments in the exchange rates for majors have positive relationships with both the excess reserves and money. This indicates that a decrease in the excess international reserves and excess money stocks might lead to the exchange rate stabilization in the equilibrium. Second, the misalignments in the exchange rates for non-majors have negative relationships with the excess foreign reserves and positive relationships with excess money. Exceptionally, the misalignment of the won-dollar rate is adjusted by both -1.06% of the excess foreign reserves and -0.88% of the excess money. Third, the other currency exchanges against the US dollar seem to have negative relationships with the excess foreign reserves in the US and positive relationships with the excess money stock in the US dollar with some exceptions.

Challenge on Foreign Reserve Currencies

Myoung Shik Choi(최명식) 한국무역학회 2008 무역학자 전국대회 발표논문집 Vol.2008 No.8

It might be difficult for non-major countries to find a theoretical rule for an optimal currency composition in usable reserves. For taking advantage of a suitable currency allocation, this paper suggests an appropriate tool to combat the currency share risk in reserves as based upon international payment and tradable, reserves, assets and liabilities, and other fundamentals. Selection of a weight portfolio of major reserve currencies is determined by the combination of six categories and forty-two fundamentals of an individual country. Empirical result supports that our method can be more effective in reducing the risk from holding five major reserve currencies than the rule using the IMF average for twelve out of fourteen countries.

외환보유고의 국제통화 비중에 대한 소고

최명식 ( Choi,Myoung Shik ) 아시아문화학술원 2016 인문사회 21 Vol.7 No.5

본 연구는 한 나라가 보유한 외환보유고의 국제통화 묶음에 대해 조사하였다. 외환보유고를 구성한 국제통화의 비중에 따른 환위험이 메이저 통화를 보유한 국가와 보유하지 못한 국가 간에 차이가 존재할 수 있다는 관점에서 국제통화 비중과 환위험의 관계를 분석하였다. 특히, 외환보유고에서 국제통화 비중을 결정해주는 기준이 없는 상황에서 IMF가 권유한 기준을 근거로 국가별로 발생할 수 있는 환위험의 크기를 실증분석 결과를 토대로 비교해보았다. 그 결과 IMF의 기준은 환위험을 더 효과적으로 감소시키도록 조정될 필요가 있었다. 향후의 연구는 이를 통대로 환위험 등 모든 경제상황을 고려하여 최적의 국제통화 비중을 결정해주는 기준모형을 구현해야 할 것이다. This study examines the international currency diversification in reserve holdings, providing a hedging evidence for major and non-major countries. We`d like investigate the relationship between foreign exchange reserves and foreign exchange risk due to an inconsistent treatment of currency allocation in foreign reserves. Our testing results represent that IMF`s recommended rule for international currency share in reserves should be more effective in reducing the risk. Furthermore, an optimal model for international currency share needs to be developed.

중국경제의 내수변화가 한국 경제성장에 미치는 영향 분석

김성순 ( Kim Seong Suhn ),최명식 ( Choi Myoung Shik ),김인지 ( Jin Renzhi ) 경남대학교 산업경영연구소 2018 지역산업연구 Vol.41 No.3

중국은 성장속도의 둔화와 함께 그에 맞는 적절한 경제구조 변화를 시도하고 있다. 투자에서 소비가 주도하는 내수로, 글로벌 가치사슬의 하단에서 상단으로, 제조업에서 서비스 중심으로의 산업구조의 전환을 추진하고 있다. 중국의 내수시장 확대 변화에 따라 국내 최종수요가 성장하고 그 최종수요 및 수입생산의 구성 변화가 한국의 경제성장에 상당한 영향을 미치고 있다. 글로벌 금융위기 이후는 이전에 비해 중국 최종소비의 한국에 대한 영향력이 급감했다. 실질GDP는 0.52%에서 0.24%로, 제조업은 0.76%에서 0.44%, 서비스업은 0.48%에서 0.19%로 대폭 감소했다. 중국이 성장정체와 경기부양, 수출대체 내수중심 산업화, 서비스산업 확대와 산업 고도화, 국내 완결형 산업화로 변화되는 가운데 한국의 대중수출이 감소하고 있으므로 내수용, 서비스, 첨단산업 수출로의 전환이 필요하다. 중국 내수시장의 변화가 한국의 성장에 미치는 영향을 분석하여 한국의 수출확대를 위한 시사점을 모색하기 위해 수행된 본 연구에서 향후에는 글로벌 가치사슬의 학대를 반영한 부가가치에 기초하여 수출입 및 무역수지를 측정할 필요가 있다. This paper examines the impacts of China’s new economy on Korea’s growth. We investigate the effects of China's recent structural changes accommodating the slowing economic growth on the Korea's growth and industry by using the long-run equilibrium approach. We find that the impacts of China's final consumption on the Korea’s growth have significantly declined since the financial crisis. Also, Korea’s exports to China has decreased. These results are a recent result of China’s demand creation by slowing growth, domestic demand-led-industrialization to substitute exports, and increase in service industry. This suggests that Korea needs to be switched into exports to China for domestic consumption, service, and high-tech industry. Future research should investigate these effects by using value-added trade required to set policies from a global value chain perspective.

국제무역과 해외직접투자의 피이드백 경제효과 분석

이헌대(Hun-Dae Lee),최명식(Myoung-Shik Choi) 한국무역연구원 2020 무역연구 Vol.16 No.2

Purpose– This study examines the interrelationships between foreign direct investment, international trade, and economic growth, with a particular focus on expanded global value chains since the 1990s. Design/methodology/approach– This study investigates the feedback effects between foreign direct investment and international trade on economic growth in G7 countries and South Korea by using the annual time series data between 1990 and 2018. Empirically, we perform the tests of unit roots, causal relation and cointegration. Findings–Foreign direct investment is a causal factor affecting international trade in G7 countries and Korea while trade is a causal factor influencing foreign direct investment in the US, France, Canada, and Korea, indicating a feedback relationship between net foreign direct investments and net exports. In particular, we find that a negative feedback increases the real income in the US and Korea, while a positive feedback increases the real income in France and Canada. Research implications or Originality– The results confirm that economic growth could be driven by the feedback effects between foreign direct investment and international trade.