http://chineseinput.net/에서 pinyin(병음)방식으로 중국어를 변환할 수 있습니다.
변환된 중국어를 복사하여 사용하시면 됩니다.
북서태평양에서 열대 저기압 발생빈도의 십년간 변동 특성
최기선,김백조,이성로,박종길,Choi. Ki-Seon,Kim. Baek-Jo,Lee. Seong-Lo,Park. Jong-Kil 한국방재학회 2009 한국방재학회논문집 Vol.9 No.6
본 연구에서는 북서태평양상의 기후학적 평균 열대 저기압 발생 자료를 이용하여 이 해역의 북서구역과 남동구역에서의 열대 저기압 발생빈도의 시간변화에서 십년간 변동성을 보이고 반대 위상으로 존재함을 밝혔다. 열대 저기압 발생빈도는 북서구역에서 1980년대 중반 이후부터 최근까지(1986-2005) 증가하는 반면에, 남동구역에서 1951년부터 1970년대 초반(1951-1970)까지 높게 나타났다. 1986-2005년과 1951-1970년 사이의 차이점을 분석한 결과는 다음과 같다. i) 연직바람시어와 해수면 온도의 경우, 1986-2005년 동안에는 북서구역에서, 1951-1970년의 기간에는 남동구역에서 음의 연직시어와 양의 해수면 온도 아노말리를 나타내고 있었다. ii) 열대 저기압 이동빈도를 분석해 본 결과, 북서구역에서 발생한 열대 저기압들 중에서 1986~2005년 동안에는 주로 남중국해에 영향을 주는 빈도가 높았던 반면, 1951-1970년 동안에는 필리핀 동쪽 해상으로부터 동중국해를 지나 한국 및 일본을 통과하는 빈도가 높았다. 남동구역에서 발생한 열대 저기압들의 경우에 대략 <TEX>$150^{\circ}E$</TEX>를 기준으로 이동빈도의 공간분포가 동서로 나눠질 수 있다. 1951-1970년 동안의 열대 저기압들은 150oE의 서쪽에서, 1986-2005년 동안의 열대 저기압들은 <TEX>$150^{\circ}E$</TEX>의 동쪽에서 주로 이동하는 특성을 보였다. 특히, 1951-1970년 동안에 발생한 열대 저기압들은 필리핀의 동쪽 해상으로부터 남중국해 및 남중국 방향으로 이동하는 빈도가 높았다. iii) 두 기간 사이에 열대 저기압 이동빈도의 이러한 차이는 500 hPa 아노말리 기압패턴에 그 원인이 있다. 특히 1951-1970년 동안에는 동아시아 대륙에 저기압성 순환의 아노말리가 형성되어 필리핀 동쪽해상으로부터 동아시아 해안을 따라 남풍 아노말리가 강화되었다. 이 남풍 아노말리는 열대 저기압이 필리핀 동쪽해상으로부터 동아시아 해안을 따라 이동하기 쉽게 하는 지향류의 역할을 하였다. This study has found that there is a reverse phase with interdecadal variation in temporal variations of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency (TCGF) between Northwest sector and Southeast sector, based on climatological mean tropical cyclone genesis location over the western North Pacific. The TCGF in the Northwest sector has been increased since the mid 1980s (1986-2005), while TCGF in the Southeast sector was higher until the early 1970s (1951-1970). The analysis of a difference between 1986-2005 and 1951-1970 showed results as follows: i) Through the analysis of vertical wind shear (VWS) and sea surface temperature (SST), less VWS and higher SST in the former (latter) period was located in the Northwest (Southeast) sector. ii) In the analysis of TC passage frequency (TCPF), TCs occurred in the Northwest sector frequently passed from east sea of the Philippines, through East China Sea, to Korea and Japan in the latter period, while TCs in the former period frequently has a lot of influences on South China Sea (SCS). In the case of TCs occurred in the Southeast sector, TCs in the west (east), based on <TEX>$150^{\circ}E$</TEX> had a high passage frequency in the latter (former) period. In particular, TCs during the latter period frequently moved toward from the east sea of the Philippines to SCS and southern China. iii) This difference of TCPF between the two periods was characterized by 500 hPa anomalous pressure pattern. Particularly, anomalous cyclonic circulation strengthened over the East Asian continent caused anomalous southerlies along the East Asian coast line from the east sea of the Philippines to be predominate. These anomalous winds served as steering flows that TC can easily move toward same regions.
최기선 ( Ki Seon Choi ),김백조 ( Baek Jo Kim ),이성로 ( Seong Lo Lee ),김호경 ( Ho Kyung Kim ),이지선 ( Ji Sun Lee ) 한국환경과학회 2009 한국환경과학회지 Vol.18 No.10
In this paper, changes in the intensity (e.g., central pressure and maximum sustained wind speed) of Tropical Cyclone (TC) in summer in the regions located at 30 °N in East Asia from 1988 to 1991 were found. The intensity of TC from 1991 to 2007 was much higher than that of TC from 1965 to 1988. The reason for this was that the frequency of TCs passing China from 1991 to 2007 was much lower than that of TCs from 1965-1988 because a northeasterly wind caused by high-pressure circulation in East Asia got severer along the East Asian coast. Instead, TCs moved from the eastern region of the Tropical West Pacific to Korea and Japan mainly after passing the East China Sea due to the low-pressure circulation strengthened in the subtropical waters of East Asia. In addition, low Vertical Wind Shear (VWS) was created along the mid-latitude regions of East Asia and the main path of TCs from 1991 to 2007. Most of the regions in the Northwestern Pacific showed higher Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from 1991 to 2007, and had a good environment where TCs were able to maintain a higher intensity on the mid-latitude. In particular, a low sensible heat flux occurred due to high snow depth in East Asia in the spring of 1991 to 2007. Accordingly, the lower layer of East Asia showed high-pressure circulation, and the sea surrounding East Asia showed low-pressure circulation. Thus, the typical west-high, east-low pattern of winter atmospheric pressure was shown. The possibility of snowfall in East Asia in spring to be used as a factor for predicting the summer intensity of TC in the mid-latitude regions of East Asia was insinuated. The characteristics of TC in a low-latitude region were the same in Korea. The latest intensity of TCs got higher, and the landing location of TCs gradually changed from the west coast to the south coast.
연구논문 : 북서태평양에서 여름철 태풍활동에 대한 북태평양 진동의 영향
최기선 ( Ki Seon Choi ),이경미 ( Kyung Mi Lee ),김정윤 ( Jeoung Yun Kim ),박철홍 ( Cheol Hong Park ) 한국환경과학회 2015 한국환경과학회지 Vol.24 No.3
This study analyzed the change in tropical cyclone (TC) activity according to the fluctuation in July-to-September average North Pacific Oscillation index (NPOI) and its underlying large-scale environment during the last 37 years from 1977 to 2013. For this purpose, seven years with highest index NPOI value (positive NPOI phase) and another seven years with lowest NPOI index value (negative NPOI phase) among the 37 years were selected as sample after excluding the ENSO years. During the positive NPOI phase, TCs were created in the east of tropical and subtropical western North Pacific and moved to the west from the Philippines toward the southern region in China or toward far eastern sea of Japan. Meanwhile, during the negative NPOI phase, TCs tended to proceed to the north toward Korea or Japan passing East China Sea from the eastern sea of the Philippines. As a result, also in the TC recurvature, TCs in positive NPOI phase showed a tendency of recurving toward more eastern direction compared to TCs in negative NPOI phase. Hence, TC intensity was stronger in negative NPOI phase which allowed more time for obtaining energy from the ocean.