판별분석을 이용한 도시재생뉴딜사업장 예비평가분석 연구

방두완(Doo-Won Bang),한승욱(Seoung-Uk Han),권혁신(Hyuck-Shin Kwon) 한국주택학회 2021 주택연구 Vol.29 No.4

본 연구에서는 도시재생 사업장 100곳(우수 29곳, 미흡 71곳)을 대상으로 판별분석을 실시하였다. 분석결과 우수와 미흡 사업장에 대한 세부사업, 거버넌스, 가점 변수의 평균 차이는 통계적으로 유의적인 것으로 분석되었다. 단계별 선택법을 이용해서 최종 판별함수를 분석한 결과 세부사업, 거버넌스 변수가 최종 판별함수로 선정되었다. 판별점수와 집단 간의 관련성 정도를 나타내는 정준 상관관계(canonical correlation) 분석결과는 0.906으로 나타나 본 연구에서 제안한 판별함수의 판별력이 매우 우수한 것으로 분석되었다. 결론적으로 본 연구에서 제안한 판별함수를 이용하면, 도시재생 사업장 효율적 관리를 위한 기초 평가자료로 활용할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. 추가적으로 판별분석의 기준항목을 조정하고 종료된 도시재생사업의 평가결과를 점수화한 후, 판별분석 기법을 적용하면 사전 사업성 평가단계에서 우수 도시재생사업장을 예비평가할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. 하지만 사업장 수가 부족하여 광역시나 도 등의 지역별 특성을 고려한 판별함수를 제안하지 못하였다. 따라서 향후 충분한 도시재생 사업장 자료가 확보되면, 지역별 특성을 고려한 추가 연구가 필요하다고 보여진다. In this study, we proposed a method to classify urban regeneration projects into excellent and poor projects. To this end, we used the evaluation data for each detailed item under the urban regeneration projects, and estimated a discriminant function that could help us pre-classify projects as excellent or poor. We examined a total of 100 projects (29 excellent projects and 71 poor projects). After analyzing the discriminant function, detailed projects and governance variables were selected as the final discriminant function. Moreover, the result of the canonical correlation analysis, which indicates the degree of relevance between discriminant scores and groups, was 0.906, showing that the power of the discriminant function proposed in this study was very good. The financial data of construction companies, project feasibility evaluation data, and promotion results of existing similar projects were evaluated. Then, if we would apply the discriminant analysis method by using the scores at the pre-project feasibility evaluation stage, we would expect that the method could identify excellent projects and good constructors in advance.

한국 모기지시장의 채무불이행 및 조기상환 분석

방두완 ( Doo Won Bang ),박세운 ( Sae Woon Park ),박연우 ( Yun Woo Park ) 한국금융연구원 2010 금융연구 Vol.24 No.4

The purpose of this study is to investigate the default and the prepayment behaviors in the Korean mortgage markets. In particular, we examine the factors that play major roles in determining default and prepayment, investigate the seasoning effect in the default and the prepayment, and explore whether there is any difference between Seoul (hot housing market) and Pusan (cold housing market). We use 145,782 mortgage loans, which KHFC (Korea Housing Finance Corporation) securitized from January 2004 to December 2007. Of these there are 21,069 mortgage loans originated in Seoul and 12,503 mortgage loans in Pusan. The KHFC mortgages in the sample have the maximum maturity of 20 years and the maximum LTV of 70%. The average LTV of the overall sample is 60.3%; the average LTV is 57.8% in Seoul while the average LTV is 60.9% in Pusan. The initial loan amount is KRW 74 million in the overall sample, KRW 111 million in Seoul and KRW 66 million in Pusan. The prepayment penalties of KHFC mortgages are 2% if prepayment occurs within 1 year, 1.5% within 3 years and 1% within 5 years. We use 90 days arrears as the proxy for loan default consistent with the Basel II. Contrary to our expectation that the default rate in the regional market as such Pusan would be higher than that in Seoul, which experienced a sharp price run-up during the study period, we find that the default rate in Seoul is higher and the difference is statistically significant. During the study period of 2004~2007 the cumulative default rate is 0.78% in the overall markets, 1.40% Seoul and 1,10% in Pusan. We find that the default is higher, lower the credit rating, lower the past house price increase, higher the mark-to-market loan-to-value ratio (MLTV), and higher the DTI. The self-employed borrowers show a lower default rate. These findings are consistent with economic theories and findings reported in other markets. We find little difference in the factors that influence the mortgage default between Seoul and Pusan. The prepayment rate rises as the mortgage rate drops below the contract mortgage rate. It rises right after the 12 months and 36 months of loan age to coincide with the reduction in the prepayment penalty. The prepayment rate is higher, higher the MLTV and higher the mortgage balance. We find little difference in the factors that influence the mortgage prepayment between Seoul and Pusan. During the study period, the prepayment rate is 20.06% in the overall markets, 20.55% in Seoul and 17.73% in Pusan. From the CDR(conditional default rate) and the CPR(conditional prepayment rate) we estimate using the Kaplan-Meier product limit method, we find that the seasoning effect exists in the Korean mortgage markets as in the US mortgage markets. Therefore, using the US benchmark default model (SDA) and the US benchmark prepayment model (PSA) the estimated CDR is approximately 50~100% SDA in the overall markets and in Seoul and 50~150% SDA in Pusan while the estimated CPR is approximately 150~250% PSA in the overall markets and Seoul and 100~200% PSA. The estimated CDR and CPR statistical models, which express the CDR and CPR as a function of the age of the mortgage loan respectively, provide a valuable benchmark for practitioners. Financial institutions carrying a significant amount of mortgage loan assets would find the estimated default model useful for the credit risk management while the estimated prepayment model provides useful information for the duration management of the mortgage loan assets and the MBS that are based on these assets.

FAVAR를 이용한 지역별 아파트 경기지수 전이효과 분석

방두완(Doo-Won Bang),권혁신(Hyuck-Shin Kwon),김명현(Myeong-Hyeon Kim) 한국주택학회 2019 주택연구 Vol.27 No.3

구는 FAVAR 모형을 이용하여 지역별 아파트 경기지수를 작성하고, 아파트 경기지 수의 적정성을 검증하고, 작성된 아파트 경기지수를 이용하여 지역별 아파트 경기의 전이 효과를 분석하였다. 실증분석결과, FAVAR 모형을 이용하여 작성한 전국아파트 경기지수와 통계청에서 발표 하는 경기동행지수 순환변동과 유사한 움직임을 보이며, 특히 2008년 금융위기와 그 이후의 경제 충격을 전국 아파트 경기지수가 잘 트레이싱(tracing)하는 것으로 분석되었으며, 전국 아파트 경기지수는 경기동행 순환변동을 약 4-5개월 정도 선행하는 것으로 나타났다. 지역별 아파트 경기지수 분석결과, 2008년 세계금융위기의 영향을 공통적으로 받은 것을 확인되었지만, 금융위기 이후에는 지역별 아파트 경기지수가 차이를 보이는 것으로 분석되었다. 이러한 결과는 중앙정부에서 시행한 부동산 정책에 대한 효과가 지역별로 다르게 나타날 수 있다는 것이며, 이는 부동산 정책을 시행할 때, 지역별 특성과 영향을 고려해야 함을 시사하는 것이다. 지역별 경기지수 전이효과를 종합하면, 아파트 경기지수는 서울과 수도권이 상호 영향을 주고 받으며, 부산에도 상당한 영향을 미치는 것을 확인할 수 있지만, 부산에서 서울과 수도권에 미치는 영향은 상대적으로 미미하다고 할 수 있다. We used the FAVAR model in order to estimate the regional apartment business cycles. We also analyzed the regional spillover effects by using the methodology suggested by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012). Based on this analysis, a similarity was found between the national apartment business cycle and the coincident composite index. In addition, the national apartment business cycle can be traced back to the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent economic shocks. The national apartment business cycle also led the coincident composite index by about 4-5 months. The analysis of the regional apartment business cycles showed that the regional apartment business cycles were commonly affected by the 2008 global financial crisis. However, the regional apartment business cycles varied after the financial crisis. These results indicate that the real estate policies of the government should be differentiated by region. Moreover, there is a difference between the economic environment of each region. We conclude that when implementing real estate policies, regional characteristics and impacts need to be considered. The analysis result of the transition effect of regional economic indexes showed that the apartment business cycles have a significant influence on both Busan and Seoul. However, Busan has a relatively small impact on Seoul and the metropolitan area.We estimate that the variation in Seoul’s apartment business cycle is only about 0.291 due to the change within Seoul, and that 0.709 of the transition effect is explained by the change in the other regions. Meanwhile, the transfer effect of Incheon to the other regions was 0.819.

아파트 청약률과 초기분양률 차이발생 원인에 관한 연구

권혁신(Hyuck Shin Kwon),방두완(Doo Won Bang) 한국주택학회 2015 주택연구 Vol.23 No.3

아파트 청약률이 실제 초기분양률과 어느 정도 관련성을 가진지는 아파트 공급자 및 금융기관에 중요한 이슈라고 할 수 있으며 본 연구에서는 선행연구에서 다루지 않았던 청약률과 초기분양률의 비교분석을 실시하였으며 아파트 청약률과 초기분양률의 차이를 발생시키는 요인을 분석하였다. 실증분석결과 아파트단지규모, 기존아파트가격대비 분양가비율, 대중교통이용 가능성, 교육환경, 전세가증가율, 아파트 입주물량, 지역별 경제활동 인구수, 매수우위지수, 주택담보대출금리, 주가지수 등이 청약률과 초기분양률에 각각 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 이와 함께 본 연구에서는 요인분석과 함께 주택시장 순환주기 즉, 주택가격 상승기와 조정기에 청약률과 초기분양률의 차이에 영향을 미치는 지를 분석하였는데 주택가격상승기와 조정기에 따라 청약률과 초기분양률에 미치는 영향은 다른 것으로 분석되었다. 또한 본 연구에서는 주택시장의 주요 정책변수가 청약률과 초기분양률의 차이에 미치는 영향을 LTV, DTI, 취등록세 효과 등으로 구분하여 분석하였다. LTV 정책의 영향을 분석한 결과 LTV는 규제가 발표되는 당월에 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었는데 그 이유는 분양자들이 LTV 이벤트에 민감하게 반영하여 분양 유무를 결정하기 때문으로 보인다. 반면 DTI 정책의 영향은 예상과 다르게 큰 영향을 미치지 못하는 것으로 분석되었다. 취등록세 상승, 하락 정책은 LTV나 DTI와는 다르게 경기 조정기에 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었는데 이러한 본 연구의 결과는 취등록세 효과에 대한 기존의 상반된 연구결과들을 포괄하는 내용으로 해석할 수 있다. 마지막으로 본 연구는 주택거래 규제완화 측면에서 분양권 전매와 청약제도가 청약률과 초기분양률 차이에 미치는 영향을 분석하였는데, 분양권 전매제도 이벤트는 청약률과 초기분양률에 영향을 미치지 못하는 것으로 분석되었지만 청약제도는 청약률과 초기분양률에 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. This study examined the relation between new apartment subscription rate and initial pre-sale contract rate, the two important data sets for both apartment developers and financial institutions. To be more specific, it looked at how much of applicants for apartment purchase right actually signed the pre-sale contract by comparing the two data sets. For an empirical analysis, this study used the average difference of 17.05 percentage point between new apartment subscription rate and initial pre-sale contract rate as the dependent variable to analyze the factors affecting the dependent variable. In addition, it looked at how housing market cycle and government policy events (regulations on LTV, DTI, acquisition/registration taxes, resale of purchase right, new apartment subscription system) have effects on the dependent variable. The analysis showed that variables affecting the difference include the size of apartment complex, the ratio of pre-selling price to existing apartment price, the availability of public transportation, educational environment, the increase rate of Jeonse (full deposit) price, the supply of new apartment units, working population by region, buyer superiority index, mortgage interest rate, etc. The analysis of housing price cycle indicated that its effect on the difference varies depending on the phase of the cycle ranging from the price increase period to price adjustment period. Next the analysis on policy events (regulations on LTV, DTI, acquisition/registration taxes) revealed that LTV had a noticeable effect on the difference in the month when the regulation was announced while DTI showed no significant effect. Moreover, the increase or decrease of acquisition/registration taxes turned out to have little impact during upward trend in housing price, but have some effect during the adjustment period. As to the regulation on the resale of purchase right and any change in new apartment subscription system, the former showed no meaningful effect on the difference while the latter did have some statistical effect. We finally conclude that policy events have effects on the difference between new apartment subscription rate and initial pre-sale contract rate.

주택수요정책이 신규아파트 미분양률에 미친 효과 연구

권혁신 ( Hyuck Shin Kwon ),방두완 ( Doo Won Bang ) 한국부동산분석학회 2016 不動産學硏究 Vol.22 No.2

While the Korean government has implemented various housing policies to achieve the goal of a stable real estate market, not sufficient assessment was made on policy measures. In particular, not many studies assessed the impact of the housing policies on new apartments as it is difficult to access sales rate data. This paper examines the effects of housing demand-side policies implemented to stabilize the housing market following the 2008 global financial crisis on new apartment sales by analyzing new apartment unsold rates, and draws policy implications. We analyze at various housing policies which may have some effects on unsold rates of new apartment, and find that eased regulations on LTV cap, resale of purchase right, and transfer tax have had not sufficient effect on unsold rates of new apartments. When all policy events are combined, their explanatory power is a mere 2.2%. However, when individual policy event was analyzed for its impact on unsold rates, the relaxed regulation on purchase right resale has shown the biggest impact with the explanatory power of 83.5%.

KSP･ODA제도를 활용한 주택선분양제도와 주택분양보증제도 공유방안 모색

권혁신(Kwon, Hyuck Shin),방두완(Bang, Doo Won) 대한부동산학회 2016 大韓不動産學會誌 Vol.34 No.2

The housing pre-sale system permits the sale of housing which is not built yet. Under this system, housing developers can get necessary funds directly from buyers, while home buyers pay the purchase price in installments according to the progress of housing construction. In practice, however, construction is often halted due to developers’ bankruptcy and other problems that prevent the transfer of housing ownership to home buyers. Therefore, housing guarantee scheme in Korea was introduced to adopt policy measures to protect home buyers who signed pre-sale contracts. Each government of Vietnam, Malaysia, Kazakstan and Indonesia etc, has tried to increase its housing supply through pre-sale system. but is in need of safeguards for home buyers such as Korea’s. To solve this issues, we need to share practical and useful Korea’s experience of Korea regarding housing guarantee with other countries through KSP and ODA. To this end, it is necessary to reinforce policy consulting to developing countries and to assist policy recommendations by enhancing technical cooperation and equity investment among ODA measures. 금융제도(financial system)가 발달하지 못하여 주택건설 자금 조달이 어려운 저개발 국가의 경우 선분양제를 통해 주택공급자가 주택수요자로부터 공사 자금을 직접 조달할수 있도록 하는 것이 주택공급을 위해 효과적이다. 그러나 선분양제는 건설사에게 자금조달 및 미분양 리스크를 감소시켜주는 장점이 있으나, 수요자는 건설사 부도위험･공사지연 등의 위험에 노출되게 된다. 이를 해결하기 위하여 한국은 HUG 설립 및 주택분양보증제도를 도입하였으며, 이를 통해 외환위기와 글로벌 금융위기 기간 동안 주택수분양자를 보호하고, 주택시장 및 국가경제의 안전판 역할을 수행하며 그 제도의 필요성을 증명하였다. 현재 개도국 역시 선분양제도를 운영하고 있지만 수분양자를 보호하기 위한 장치는 미흡하여, 한국식의 주택분양제도를 도입하려고 노력하고 있다. 이를 지원하기 위해 KSP(Knowledge Sharing Program)와 ODA(Official Development Assistance)제도를 활용하여 개도국에 실질적인 공헌을 할 수 있는 방안의 검토가 필요하다. 구체적으로 KSP의 정책컨설팅을 강화하고, ODA형태 중 기술협력을 통해 보증기관 운영을 위한 노하우 및 전문지식을 전수와 보증기관 설립지원을 위한 주식출자 방안 검토가 필요하다.

도시재생뉴딜사업의 사전사업성 평가제도 도입 가능성 연구

한승욱(Han, Seoung-Uk),방두완(Bang, Doo-Won),권혁신(Kwon, Hyuck-Shin) 한국도시부동산학회(구.도시정책학회) 2021 도시부동산연구 Vol.12 No.3

We would like to provide policy directions to strengthen financial efficiency and to secure stability in operation and management after urban regeneration facilities were established. To this end, we reviewed the current evaluation system of Urban Regeneration New Deal projects and checked similar systems implemented by other central government agencies. The preliminary feasibility evaluation index was divided into demand, benefit, cost estimation index, and policy analysis index. In conclusion, through a preliminary feasibility evaluation study, local governments or local communities should measure relatively accurate local demand in the planning stage before project application, and we can expect to change practices of financial management that local governments rely on financial aids of the central government. At the same time, it is possible to secure fairness in the selection, and it is expected to have a policy effect that can prioritize projects with high economic and regional ripple effects.

도시재생사업의 공공성과 지속가능성에 관한 연구

권혁신(Kwon, Hyuck Shin),방두완(Bang, Doo Won) 인천발전연구원 2021 도시연구 Vol.- No.19

본 연구는 이론적 고찰을 통해 정의된 공공성과 지속가능성에 기초하여 실제 도시재생 사례를 평가하고, 도시재생 관련 제도적·정책적 환경 속에서 도시재생사업의 공공성과 지속가능성을 향상할 수 있는 실현 가능한 방안을 분석하였다. 이를 위해 천안시와 청주시 사례 분석을 통하여, 도시재생사업의 공공성과 지속가능성을 확보하기 위한 중요요인을 분석하였다. 구체적으로 공공성은 절차적 공공성, 내용적 공공성, 주체적 공공성 측면에서, 지속가능성은 거버넌스, 산업유산의 문화화, 복합용도의 활용, 경제적 효과 측면에서 분석하였다. 결론적으로 도시재생사업의 공공성 및 지속성을 성공적으로 정착시키기 위해서는 먼저 감독 및 모니터링 체계를 구축할 필요성이 있으며, 모니터링을 법제화하고, 지역 금융전문가를 필수적으로 참여시킬 필요가 있다. 그리고 도시재생사업의 공공성과 지속가능성 정착을 위해서는 도시재생 기금을 광역시 단위로 조성하고, 지역사업장 단위로 운용하여 도시재생사업을 추진할 필요성이 있다. We evaluated urban regeneration projects based on the publicness and sustainability defined through theoretical examination and have sought to find feasible ways to improve these factors. To this end, we analyzed two successful projects of urban regeneration, Cheonansi and Cheongju-si, and identified important factors for securing the publicness and sustainability of urban regeneration projects. Specifically, we analyzed publicness in terms of procedural, content, and the main agent publicness, and examined sustainability through aspects of governance, enculturation of industrial heritage, mixeduse development, and economic effects. In conclusion, to successfully establish the publicness a nd sustainability of urban regeneration projects, it is necessary to first establish a supervisory and monitoring system, legalize monitoring, and involve local financial experts. To promote urban regeneration projects, there is a need to raise urban regeneration funds in metropolitan units and run them on a regional basis.

건설업체의 재무건전성모형 추정과 건설업의 스트레스 테스트

박연우 ( Yun Woo Park ),방두완 ( Doo Won Bang ) 한국부동산분석학회 2011 不動産學硏究 Vol.17 No.3

We examine the influence of the macro variables on the financial soundness of the construction industry. We estimate the financial soundness model with three macro variables, namely, the change in house price, interest rates and the change in GDP as explanatory variables using the panel data of the listed as well as the unlisted construction firms in Korea for the 2000-2009 period. We find that the house price and the GDP have a positive influence, while interest rates have a negative influence, on the financial soundness of the construction firms. Next, we estimate the impact of two macro shocks in the form of a house price drop and an interest rate increase on the probability of financial distress in the construction industry. We find that unlisted firms are more vulnerable to the housing market and interest rate stresses than listed firms showing that loans to the smaller firms without access to the capital markets have a greater credit risk suggesting that the financial institutions which have lent to the unlisted firms face a greater credit loss.

평가기반 아파트가격지수에서의 비대칭 평활화 현상에 관한 연구

박연우(Yun-Woo Park),방두완(Doo-Won Bang) 한국주택학회 2011 주택연구 Vol.19 No.2

본 연구에서는 대표적인 평가기반 아파트가격지수인 국민은행 아파트가격지수의 평활화 현상(smoothing)을 국토해양부가 공표하고 있는 실거래가격으로 만든 반복매매지수(repeat sales index)를 사용하여 조사하였다. 실증분석결과를 요약하면 평가기반 아파트가격지수는 상승시장보다는 하락시장에서 평활화가 큰 것으로 나타났다. 상승시장에서는 평가기반 아파트가격지수는 실거래 아파트가격지수를 상대적으로 빨리 추적하고 하락시장에서는 상대적으로 천천히 추적하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 평가기반 아파트가격지수의 변동성도 실거래 아파트가격지수의 변동성에 비해 상승시장보다는 하락시장에서 더욱 작은 것으로 분석되었다. 새로운 거래가격이 평가에 반영되는 정도는 하락시장에서는 20%, 상승시장에서는 45% 정도인 것으로 나타났다. 평가기반 아파트가격지수의 측정오차(measurement errors)모형의 분석결과 하락기에 확대되는 평가기반 아파트가격지수의 평활화 현상은 지속되는 경향이 강하다는 것을 확인하였다. 평가기반 아파트가격지수의 평활화현상이 아파트가격 상승기보다 하락기에 더 큰 것은 적은 거래량의 영향도 있지만 하락기 고유의 영향도 있음을 확인하였다. 본 연구의 결과를 전체적으로 요약한다면 평가기반 아파트가격지수는 상승시장보다는 하락시장에서 평활화 효과가 크게 나타나는 것으로 분석되었다. We investigate the smoothing phenomenon in the Kookmin Bank apartment price index, the most widely used appraisal based apartment price index in Korea using a repeat sales index based on the transaction data published by the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs. In summary, we find that there is a greater degree of smoothing in the appraisal based apartment price index during the up market than the down market, that is, the appraisal based apartment price index tracks the sales price based index relatively slowly during the down market while it tracks the sales price based index relatively fast during the up market. The volatility in the sales price based index is far greater than the volatility in the appraisal based price index during the down market, but not during the up market. Only about one quarter of the new sale prices are priced in the appraisal during the down market while the new sale prices account for almost half of the appraisal based apartment price index during the up market. We also show that during the down market the appraisal based apartment price index reduces the gap from the sales price based index in subsequent periods only limitedly so that the smoothing during the down market tends to be persistent. We find that the transaction volume, which is a measure of information in sale prices, has a negative influence on the gap between the appraisal based apartment price index and the sales price based index. However, even when we control for the volume effect, the down market effect is still present suggesting that the asymmetrical smoothing between the down market and the up market is caused not only by the information effect of volume but also by other factors present in the down market. Our findings are generally consistent with the asymmetrical smoothing hypothesis where the smoothing in the appraisal based apartment price index is greater during the down market than during the up market.