시계열 모형을 이용한 해외건설 수주 전망

김운중,Kim, Woon Joong 한국건설관리학회 2018 건설관리 : 한국건설관리학회 학회지 Vol.19 No.2

2010년 이후 한국 해외건설 수주가 극적 변동을 보임에 따라, 이에 대한 원인과 대응방안을 모색하고자 한다. 한국 해외건설은 2010년 716억불을 정점으로 2011년에서 2014년까지 연평균 638억불을 기록하였다. 하지만, 2014년 하반기부터 시작된 국제유가 하락으로 2015년 461억불을, 2016년 282억불, 2017년 290억불의 수주에 그쳤다. 국제 유가 하락과 더불어, 세계 경제 저성장 지속과 우리 기업의 EPC 수주 역량 한계점 봉착 등으로 불확실성이 과거 어느 때보다 증가하고 있다. 이와 같은 불확실한 해외건설시장 상황 속에서 적절한 대응방안을 모색하고, 많은 가능성과 글로벌 경쟁력을 갖추고 있는 해외건설산업을 국가수 출전략산업으로 육성 발전시키기 위하여, 세계건설시장과 해외건설시장의 발주 및 수주 구조와 그 변화추세를 분석하고, 향후 해외건설 수주 규모를 예측함으로써 해외건설산업의 건전한 육성 및 발전을 위한 정책 방향을 제시하고자 한다. Since 2010, Korea's overseas construction orders have seen dramatic fluctuations. I propose causes and remedies for the industry as a whole. Orders have recorded an annual average of $63.8 billion dollars from 2011 to 2014, reaching its highest at $71.6 billion dollars(2010) which marked the peak of Korea's overseas construction. However, due to a decline in international oil prices, starting in the last half of 2014, Korea's overseas construction orders have followed suit recording $46.1 billion dollar in 2014, $28.2 billion dollars in 2016, and $29.0 billion dollars in 2017. Facing uncertainty in Korea's overseas construction market, caused by continued slow growth of the global economy, Korean EPC contractors are at a critical point in regards to their award-winning capabilities. Together with declining oil prices, the challenges have never been bigger. To mitigate the challenges, I would suggest policy direction as a way to grow and develop the overseas construction industry. Proper counterplans are needed to foster Korea's overseas construction industry. Forecasting total order amount for overseas construction projects is essencial. Analyzing contract award & tender structure and its changing trends in both overseas and world construction markets should also be included. Korea has great potential and global competitiveness. These measures will serve to enhance Korea's overall export strategy in uncertain overseas markets and global economy.

감수곡선을 이용한 탱크 모형과 매개변수 자동보정에 의한 유출 예측

김운중(Kim Woon Joong),김민환(Kim Min Hwan),전일권(Ceon Ir Kweon) 대한토목학회 2002 대한토목학회논문집 B Vol.22 No.6B

수문모형(HMS)과 GIS자료를 이용한 오원천 유역의 유출량 산정에 관한 연구

김운중 ( Woon Joong Kim ),정남선 ( Nam Sun Jung ),김경수 ( Gyung Soo Kim ) 대한지질공학회 2000 지질공학 Vol.10 No.3

간헐포기소화의 비용 평가

김운중(Kim Woon Joong),김성홍(Kim Seong Hong),김희준(Kim Hee Jun) 대한토목학회 2006 대한토목학회논문집 B Vol.26 No.1B

간헐포기방식의 슬러지 소화 기술에 대한 비용을 분석하였다. 포기비율은 간헐포기소화의 가장 중요한 설계인자이며, 포기비율에 따라 시설비와 동력비가 달라진다. 목표 SS 제거율을 35%로 설정하고, 철근콘크리트형식의 SBR 간헐포기소화조를 설계하였으며, 이로부터 시설비와 동력비를 산출하였다. 비용 평가는 할인율과 경제성장율을 고려하는 현재가치로 환산하는 방법을 사용하였다. 포기비율이 낮은 경우는 시설비가 높지만 동력비는 적게 소요되며, 포기비율이 높으면 반대로 시설비는 낮지만 동력비는 증가한다. 초기시설비는 호기성 소화가 간헐포기소화보다 더 저렴하다. 그러나, 총비용면에서 내용연수 약 10년 이상의 운전에서는 간헐포기소화가 호기성 소화보다 더 유리하다. 특히, 내용연수가 길수록 최적 포기비율은 낮아지며, 내용연수가 45년 정도일 때 최적포기비율은 0.3 정도이고, 이 경우 총비용은 호기성소화의 64% 수준이다. Cost estimation of an intermittent aerobic digestion technology was carried out in this study. Aeration ratio is one of the most important design factors and it affects installation and power consumption cost. For the purpose, digestion efficiency was fixed at 35% of SS reduction and the reactor type was assumed a 2-chamber sequencing batch reactor (SBR). Installation cost and power consumption cost were evaluated and converted in terms of present value that could reflect the rate of discount and the rate of economic growth. The lower aeration ratio needs higher installation cost but lower power consumption cost. From the point of only installation cost, conventional aerobic digestion is cheaper than intermittent aerobic digestion. But intermittent aerobic digestion is better economical for more than 10 years of estimated service life. The optimal aeration ratio was dependent on the service life and it was lower as the estimated service life increased. For the 45 years as the service life, the optimal aeration ratio was estimated 0.3 and the total cost was 64% of the conventional aerobic digestion.

제주지방(濟州地方)의 확률강우강도식(確率降雨强度式) 유도(誘導)

김철순,임병대,김운중,표영평,Kim, Chul Soon,Rim, Byung Dae,Kim, Woon Joong,Pyo, Yong Pyoung 대한토목학회 1993 대한토목학회논문집 Vol.13 No.2

강우현상은 지역별로 그 특성이 다르고, 장기간을 관측하여 보면 강우특성도 전에 비해서 많이 변화하므로 보다 정확한 배수계획의 수립이나 수공구조물계획을 위해서는 그 지역의 최근의 관측자료까지 포함한 강우특성을 연구하여 적용하는 것이 바람직하다. 따라서 제주지방의 주요 우량관측소(제주시, 서귀포, 성산포)의 최근 20년간(年間)의 자기우량기록지에서 연최대(年最大) 강우량만을 골라서 우량지속기간별로 실측우량을 발췌하였으며, 강우강도식은 일반적으로 많이 사용하고 있는 Talbot형(型), Sherman형(型), Japanese형(型)에다 새로운 Semi-log형(型)을 추가해서 제주지방의 지역별 최적확률 강우강도식을 유도해 본 결과 제주시는 확률년이 3년(年)~5년(年)에는 Japanese형(型), 그 외는 Talbot형(型)이고, 서귀포는 Sherman형(型), 성산포는 Talbot형(型)으로 나타났다. It is desirable to utilize the result after studying the rainfall characteristics including the latest observation data in the districts for the sake of establishment of the more accurate plans for drainage or plans for hydraulic stuctures because the rainfall phenomena are different in their characteristics by regional groups and if we make a meteorological observation for a long period of time, the rainfall characteristics also change a great deal as compared with the preceding years. Therefore, we selected only the annual maximum rainfall from the self-recording rain gauge of the main rainfall observation station (Cheju, Sogwipo, Songsanpo) in the Cheju districts in the last twenty years, extracted the rainfall by actual measurement by the rainfall duration, and induced the optimal probable rainfall-intensity formulas by regional groups in the Cheju districts, taking advantage of the rainfall formulas being in wide use in general, that is, Talbot type, Sherman type, Japanese type, and new Semi-log type. As the result, the return periods at Cheju station appeared to be three years to five years and the optimal probable rainfall-intensity formula at Cheju station, Japanese type and outside the city, Talbot type; Sogwipo, Sherman type; Songsanpo, Talbot type respectively.

Batch-Type 원자층 증착 방법으로 형성한 실리콘 질화막의 특성

김혁,이주현,한창희,김운중,이연승,이원준,나사균,Kim, Hyuk,Lee, Ju-Hyun,Han, Chang-Hee,Kim, Woon-Joong,Lee, Yeon-Seung,Lee, Won-Jun,Na, Sa-Kyun 한국진공학회 2003 Applied Science and Convergence Technology Vol.12 No.4

차세대 반도체 및 디스플레이 소자에 적용되는 실리콘 질화막은 정확한 두께 제어와 우수한 물성을 필요로 한다. 본 연구에서는 우수한 특성의 실리콘 질화막을 형성하기 위해 Si 원료물질로 $SiC1_4$, N 원료물질로 $NH_3$을 사용하고 $500^{\circ}C$에서 $600^{\circ}C$ 온도구간에서 batch-type 장비를 이용하여 원자층 증착 방법으로 박막을 형성하고 증착된 박막의 특성을 살펴보았다. Batch-type 장비를 사용한 박막의 증착은 표면반응에 의한 균일한 원자층 증착임을 확인하였으며, 증착 cycle의 횟수를 조절하여 원하는 두께의 박막을 형성할 수 있었다. 원자층 증착된 박막의 조성, 굴절률 및 습식각 속도를 기존의 저압화학증착 방법에 의해 증착된 박막과 비교한 결과, 원자층 증착 방법을 사용하여 기존의 방법보다 증착온도를 $250^{\circ}C$ 이상 낮추면서도 유사한 물성을 가진 박막을 형성할 수 있음을 확인하였다. Pyridine을 촉매로 첨가하여 원자층 증착한 박막의 경우에는 증착속도를 50% 가량 향상시킬 수 있었으나 박막의 구조가 불안정하여 쉽게 산화되므로 반도체나 디스플레이 소자 제조에 적용하기에는 부적절한 것으로 판단된다. Precise thickness control and excellent properties of silicon nitride thin films are essential for the next-generation semiconductor and display devices. In this study, silicon nitride thin films were deposited by batch-type atomic layer deposition (ALD) method using $SiC1_4$ and $NH_3$ as the precursors at temperatures ranging from 500 to $600^{\circ}C$. Thin film deposition using a batch-type ALD reactor was a layer-by-layer atomic growth by self-limiting surface reactions, and the thickness of the deposited film can be controlled by the number of deposition cycles. The silicon nitride thin films deposited by ALD method exhibited composition, refractive index and wet etch rate similar with those of the thin films deposited by low-pressure chemical vapor deposition method at $760^{\circ}C$. The addition of pyridine mixed with precursors increased deposition rate by 50%, however, the films deposited with pyridine was readily oxidized owing to its unstable structure, which is unsuitable for the application to semiconductor or display devices.

섬진댐 유역의 계측 홍수수문곡선 잡음제거 관한 연구

김민환 ( Min-hwan Kim ),전일권 ( Ir-kweon Ceon ),김운중 ( Woon-joong Kim ) 한국환경기술학회 2015 한국환경기술학회지 Vol.16 No.6

유역의 강우-유출 특성을 파악할 수 있다면 신뢰성 있는 홍수관리대책을 수립할 수 있다. 계측 홍수 수문곡선은 그 유역의 강우-유출 특성을 파악하는데 중요한 자료로 활용될 수 있다. 그러나 계측 홍수 수문곡선은 대부분 진동성분인 잡음을 포함하고 있어 이의 제거가 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 섬진댐 지점에서 계측하고 있는 홍수수문곡선의 최적 잡음제거 방안을 도출하고자 한다. 이를 위하여 이동평균법(MAM; moving average method)을 개선한 가중이동평균법(WMAM; weight moving average method)과 KRE(kernel regression estimator) 방법을 제안하고 이의 적용성을 검증한다. 검증 방법은 제안한 방법으로 산정한 수문곡선과 계측 홍수수문곡선간의 평균제곱근오차(RMSE), 첨두유량, 첨두유량 발생시각 등을 비교 분석한다. 본 연구 결과 섬진댐 지점에서 계측한 홍수수문곡선의 잡음 제거는 KRE 방법이 MAM 이나 WMAM 방법보다 양호한 결과를 획득할 수 있다. 본 연구에서 제안한 KRE 방법은 섬진댐 계측 홍수수문곡선의 잡음 제거에 적합한 방법으로 판단되며 실무에 적용성이 높을 것으로 기대된다. We can establish reliable flood administration countermeasure if can grasp rainfall-runoff characteristics of basin. The observed flood hydrograph can be utilized to important data grasping rainfall-runoff characteristics of the basin. But, observed flood hydrograph includes noize that is most oscillating component and need this noise rejection. The purpose of this study is drawing flood hydrograph`s most suitable noise rejection method that is measuring at sumjindam site. The proposed WMAM(weight moving average method) and KRE(kernel regression estimator) method to improve MAM(moving average method) for this and verify adaptability of these method. This analyzes RMSE(root mean square error) between hydrograph and observed flood hydrograph, peak flow, peak flow occurrence time that is calculated by method to propose. In this study, noise rejection of observed flood hydrograph of sumjindam site by the KRE method than MAM or WMAM method, witch can acquired better result. KRE method to propose in this study is judged by suitable method to sumjindam site observed flood hydrograph`s noise rejection, adaptability is expected to be high to practical field.

시·공간 강우변동을 고려한 설계홍수량과 배수갑문 규모 결정 : 해남 간척지구를 중심으로

김운중,민병무 圓光大學校 環境建設硏究所 2000 環境建設論文集 Vol.9 No.-

The purpose of this study was to investigate the propriety of the design flood and drainage sluice gate sizes of Haenam Sand Reclamation Project, which was designed in 1982, considering variation of rainfall size with spatial and time varying. This project area is located in southwest sea-shore of Korea, where their precipitation gauge network is not denser than any other area of Korea and the fluctuation of rainfall with respect to space is greatest in Korea. And also, this area is lain adjacent to Mokpo city whose precipitation gauge records was implemented in that project design. This rarity of precipitation gauge network may cause significant mistakes in calculating design rainfall and flood sizes. In order to consider the variation of rainfall the annual maximum 2-day rainfall series of 1907∼1999 of Mokpo precipitation guage as well as of 1972∼1999 of Haenam precipitation guage were collected and analyzed. In evaluating design flood and sluice gate sizes the same methods of rainfall frequency analysis, calculation of frequency flood size, inundation analysis, and sluice gate capability analysis, which were applied in original design of that project, were adapted in order to compare under the same condition and consider the variation of rainfall only. In addition, the sensitivity analysis of the triangular unit hydrograph method, which has been applied to calculate flood hydrograph for the most part of land reclamationdesign in Korea, with respect to runoff curve number(CN) and time of concentration which are dominant parameters in this method. And the results of sluice gate size of this study were compared with original design size and that size from experimental formula so as to examine the appropriateness of experimental sluice gate size formula. The result showed that in the case of considering spatial rainfall variation the design rainfall and peak flood sizes were underestimated as 1.67 and 1.84 times of this study respectively. On the other hand, in the case of considering rainfall variation with time both of the design rainfall and peak flood size were overestimated as 1.02 times of this study. From these result we can infer that there was no significant rainfall fluctuation with time in southwest costal area of Korea but this area has outstanding rainfall fluctuation according to space, therefore one must consider the spatial rainfall variation in their hydrological according to space, therefore one must consider the spatial rainfall variation in their hydrological design about southwest area of Korea.

대청댐 유역의 호우 거동 특성에 관한 연구

김운중,고창옥 朝鮮大學校 建設技術硏究所 2002 建設技術硏究 Vol.22 No.1

The storm movement influences the shape of the runoff hydro-graph. The recent development of distributed and semi-distributed model for the conversion of rainfall in to runoff has renewed the interest in problems related to moving storms. One of these is the determination of the speed and direction of storm movement from field data. The speed and direction of movement of rainfall patterns, assumed constant during and given storm, can be derived data sets comprised of the coordinates (x. y) of a number of the recorded hyetographs. Since rainfall hyetographs at different stations are not identical, it is necessary to select some easily identified feature of the hyetograph as a basis for determining the time of arrival of rainfall at the various gauges. In this study, the analysis technique based on the corrected three stations method. The method takes data from a network of continuously recording rain-gauges and is based on minimizing the sum of the squared deviations between the observed arrival times T for the rain-gauges and values t computed by the equation of the inclined plane. In the method, the value were taken by three values of times of arrival for each station and for each storm. The three features used for the definition of arrival times are T_(c) the time to the centroid of the hyetograph, T_(m), the time to the median (50%) of the hyetograph, and T_(p) the time of highest rainfall intensity. The modern rainfall input should be based on the recognition of rainfall kinematics and it should contain the movement parameters. The, parameters must be extracted from the rainfall data or taken from other phenomena such as wind movement at high altitude. It is estimated for the speed and direction of the moving storm in the Daechong dam catchment. The relationship between storm and high-altitude wind, movement parameters is estimated. The results show that the relationship between the direction of storm S_(d) and the direction of wind W_(d) is S_(d)= 22.558 + 0.919. W_(d) and the relationship between the speed of wind W_(s) and the speed of storm S_(s) is S_(s)=6.526 + 0.612. W_(s).

QUAL2E 모형을 통한 탐진강 유역의 수질예측에 관한 연구

김운중,김영균 朝鮮大學校 建設技術硏究所 2003 建設技術硏究 Vol.23 No.1

In recent years, the river management is being more and more important because water quality become worse and water demand increase. So, there are many points which is demanded as followings : Water supplement of food quality, plan for a water quality preservation, water quality purity and river management. Especially, important of river management is focus on to pretect the river which is more clean and natural. Tamjin Dam has been under constructing for the purpose of efficient using of water because there is need of water supply to the adjacent Tamjin river basin whose living standard is developed. The purpose of this study is to prospect of the influences to the water quality and the change of the qater quality of Tamjin river in future, after completion of the dam construction in 2003. In this study, the reason why we decide the place which is from the dam, now under construction, to down stream as a target region is to prospect to the water condition as the dam is constructed and to make an alternative method to improve the water condition. QUAL2E is chosen because it has the good reputation for the reliability of test of water puality in the world. 2011 was selected as a target year This study prospected the management for water quality on dam reservoir, the water quality of river by release discharge and the change of the water quality according to decreasing of contaminations which is made by basic environmental facilities.