Impacts and Countermeasures of Climate Change on Food Supply

Kim Chang-gil,Jeong Hak-kyun,Han Suk-ho,Kim Jeong-seung,Moon Dong-hyun 한국농촌경제연구원 2013 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

Climate change has become a megatrend that will lead to significant changes in future society. Korean and overseas agencies specializing in climate forecasts predict that average global temperatures will continue to rise. While climate change may potentially have certain positive impacts for crop yields, the overall impact is predicted to be negative for environment and food security. In this context, our study aims to suggest a plan for systematically establishing a stable food supply system in Korea in respose to climate change. Various analytical models were employed, including: a response analysis based on questionnaire for farmers, panel-based analysis of the causes of pests and diseases in rice production, a random-effects model for panel data of extreme weather impact, and an analysis of food supply effects using the Simulation Model for Climate-Agriculture Relations (SIMCAR) integrated model in conjunction with the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES) model of the Korea Agricultural Simulation Model (KASMO). An analysis was made of major grain yields by means of the KREI-KASMO. This revealed reduced yields and area in comparison with the baseline in 2050, resulting in a reduction of rice production by 17.8%p in the RCP8.5 scenario, and reduction of soybean by 21.2%p and reduction of barley by 13.7%p in the A2 scenario. Self-sufficiency ratio of major grains in 2050 drawn from the SIMCAR revealed that the climate change scenario for rice showed 55.0% to be reduced by 18.3% in comparison with the baseline. It is predicted that selfsufficiency ratio in rice will drop to 50% which means a half of consumed rice should be imported. Key tasks for building a stable food supply system to cope with climate change were developed based on the domestic production capacity, the buffering capacity to climate change, import capacity from other countries, and policy performance capacity with reference to the empirical analysis. First, the suggested key tasks for improving the domestic production capacity include developing and disseminating adaptation technology, conserving farmland and expanding arable land, practicing climate-smart agriculture by using fusion technology, and modernizing infrastructure for agriculture. Second, key tasks for improving buffering capacity to climate change are improving resilience and biodiversity, building a risk management system, and further improving storage of food in Korea and other countries. Third, major tasks for improving the import capacity from other countries are constructing overseas food bases, effectively using the international grain market, and enhancing international cooperation with relevant countries. Finally, key tasks for improving policy performance capacity are refining and applying the climate change impact analysis model with respect to policies, expanding investments in research and development, building a vulnerability assessment system, enhancing education and training, and installing Climate Change Response Center for Agriculture (tentative). In this study, several key challenges were presented in the four different areas related to building a stable food supply system which can help overcome the challenges of climate change. It is expected that the nature of the policies that need to be prioritized and promoted, given the constraints of budget, organization and information will be addressed in future research. Also, in order for the solutions for key challenges to work properly in the field such that policy outcomes will be maximized, a consortium of research bodies in the related fields of agriculture, agricultural meteorology and agricultural economics should be created. As preparation for specific action programs. Furthermore, follow-up studies should be conducted to verify the expenses required for developing reliable climate change impact assessment models and the effectiveness of the enforced policies. Such fie

대표농도경로 (RCP) 시나리오에 따른 회야강 유역의 미래 유출 및 유사 변화 분석

황창수(Hwang, Chang Su),최철웅(Choi, Chul Uong),최지선(Choi, Ji Sun) 대한공간정보학회 2014 대한공간정보학회지 Vol.22 No.3

본 연구는 미래 기후변화 및 토지피복변화가 유역 내 유출량과 유사량의 거동에 가져올 영향을 분석하는데 목적이 있다. 기상자료는 IPCC 5차 평가보고서를 위해 새롭게 논의된 RCP 시나리오 중 서로 상반되는 4.5 및 8.5 시나리오의 기후전망 (2011~2100년) 이 사용되었으며, 토지피복지도는 RCP 4.5 및 8.5 시나리오의 사회ㆍ경제 스토리라인과 로지스틱 회귀모형 (LR)을 이용하여 개발 된 모델에 의해 구축되었다. 기후변화만 고려한 경우, 토지피복변화만 고려한 경우, 기후변화 및 토지피복변화 모두 고려한 경우의 세 가지 시나리오를 설정하고, 각 시나리오에 따른 유출량 및 유사량을 모의한 결과 계절적으로 매우 명확한 변화를 나타내었다. 기후변화는 봄과 겨울에 유출량을 증가시키고 여름과 가을에 유출량을 감소시키는 것으로 나타났으며, 유사량 역시 유출량과 동일한 변화의 양상을 보였다. 토지피복변화는 유출량을 증가시키는 반면 유사량은 감소시키며, 이는 도시화로 인한 불투수 면적의 증가에 의한 것으로 판단된다. 토지피복변화는 기후변화에 비해 유출량에 적은 영향을 끼치나, 기후변화에 의해 초래된 유출량 문제를 더욱 극대화 시킬 수 있다. 따라서 지속적인 수자원 관리를 위하여 기후변화의 잠재적 영향을 파악하고, 토지피복변화에 따른 적절한 수자원 대응 정책 마련이 필요할 것으로 판단된다. This study is analyze future climate and land cover change affects behaviors for amount of streamflow and sediment discharge within basin. We used the climate forecast data in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 (2011-2100) which is opposite view for each other among RCP scenarios that are discussed for 5th report for IPCC. Land cover map built based on a socialㆍeconomic storyline in RCP 4.5/8.5 using Logistic Regression model. In this study we set three scenarios: one scenario for climate change only, one for land cover change only, one for Last both climate change and land cover change. It simulated amount of streamflow and sediment discharge and the result showed a very definite change in the seasonal variation both of them. For climate change, spring and winter increased the amount of streamflow while summer and fall decreased them. Sediment showed the same pattern of change steamflow. Land cover change increases the amount of streamflow while it decreases the amount of sediment discharge, which is believed to be caused by increase of impervious Surface due to urbanization. Although land cover change less affects the amount of streamflow than climate change, it may maximize problems related to the amount of streamflow caused by climate change. Therefore, it"s required to address potential influence from climate change for effective water resource management and prepare suitable measurement for water resource.

SIMPLE LIFE (CHANG UCCHIN MUSEUM OF ART)

Yujin Chang 글로벌지식마케팅경영학회 2014 Global Marketing Conference Vol.2014 No.7

Chang Ucchin Museum of Art (CMA) is established by the financial support of the National Government in tribute to the memory of work and spirit of Ucchin Chang who is one of the most distinguished artists in the period of the modern Korean art history. CMA aims at exhibit, research his work and data that contributes to the following young generations for advancement of Korean modern art. Chang Ucchin Musem of Art admires the spirit of Ucchin Chang that pursuits an ideal inner world. CMA studies Korean Contemporary Art through the special exhibition by the next generation artist whose work is related to the spirit of Ucchin Chang. In addtion, CMA sets the goal for becoming a civic art museum to breathe with public and the community closely through various exhibitions, educational programs and art studio that nurtures the next generation artist. The architecture of Chang Ucchin Museum of Art is regarded as another art work that starts from the fundamental concept of house rooms where the spirit is born and grown, the space where the rooms gathers altogether like in a Korean traditional house – Hanok and – that embraces the surroundings around it. In Chang’s paintings, in general, the most appearing and very familiar objects on can-vas, such as child, bird, animal, tree and sun&moon are indeed, always with us and all harmonizes together like a natural and rural landscape living in our mind without any disturb. The art works, people, nature around the Art Museum are also the ‘neighbor’ and they create in terms of a new ‘space-relationship’ in Chang Ucchin Art Museum. The architecture designed by Chae-Pereira (Songhee Chae, Laurent Pereira) after he got inspired from imagination of Chang’s painting and won KimSwooGeun Architect Prize of 2014 (most renowned Architect Price in Korea)with it recently.

한국 물류산업의 효율성과 생산성: 비모수적 기법과 모수적 기법의 적용

김창범 ( Chang Beom Kim ) 한국해운물류학회(구 한국해운학회) 2015 해운물류연구 Vol.31 No.3

본고는 우리나라 물류산업에 대해 DEA기법을 적용하여 효율성과 생산성을 분석하고, 패널 SFA기법과 패널 Tobit모형을 적용하여 규모의 수익 패턴과 효율성의 결정요인을 분석하였다. 첫째, CCR기준 초효율성과 SBM기준 초효율성 분석 결과 육상운송업이 가장 비효율적이며, 수상운송업이 가장 효율적인 것으로 나타났다. 또한 업종별로는 외항화물운송업이 가장 효율적이며, 도시철도운송업이 가장 비효율적인 것으로 나타났다. 또한 SFA기법을 적용한 결과 생산의 노동탄력성과 자본탄력성이 1에 근접하여 규모의 수익불변 특징을 보여주었다. 둘째, 패널 Tobit분석 결과 1인당 생산성 향상은 효율성에 긍정적인 영향을 미쳤으며, 1인당 자본량과 평균비용 증가는 효율성에 부정적인 영향을 미쳤다. 셋째, DEA/Window 기법으로 효율성의 동태적 안정성 여부를 살펴본 결과, 도선업이 가장 불안정적이며 도시철도운송업이 가장 안정적이었다. 넷째, Malmquist 생산성 분석을 통해 생산성 증가와 감소의 가장 큰 요인은 각각 기술진보와 기술퇴보로 분석되었다. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the efficiency and productivity of 40 logistics industries in Korea using a variety of method: super CCR, super SBM, DEA window analysis, and the Malmquist productivity index. The super efficiency model is a method for selecting the most efficient of all efficient decision making units (DMUs). The super SBM (slack-based measure of super-efficiency) model was introduced as an alternative method to calculating the super efficiency score without considering the slacks of input variables and output variables. Using these models, the most efficient DMU has a value greater than one. The Malmquist productivity index has many attractive features. For one thing, it decomposes the result into a technical efficiency change index and frontier change index, allowing the productivity change to be attributed to either changes in technical efficiency or changes in technology(i.e., technological progress in the industry), or both. The total factor productivity change is the product of technical efficiency change and technological change. Technical efficiency change can be decomposed into pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency change. Window analysis is one of methods used to verify productivity change over time and works on the principle of moving averages. DEA window analysis is used to measure efficiency in cross-sectional and time variant data. Thus, it is useful for detecting performance trends for a DMU over time. Each DMU is treated as a different industry in a different period, which allows for increasing the number of data points. In other words, each DMU in a different period is treated as if it were an independent DMU but remains comparable in the same window. The advantage of DEA window analysis is that the performance of an industry in a given period can be compared to itself and to other industries over time. The empirical results are as follows: First, by both the super CCR efficiency and super SBM efficiency methods, inefficiency of land transport and water transport was indicated as 67-74% and 30-44% respectively. These results indicate that land is the most inefficient form of transport, whereas water transport is the most efficient. The annual efficiency values revealed that the degree of inefficiency has increased since 2011. Also, detailed results for sectors show that ocean shipping is the most efficient way to transport cargo, whereas urban rail transport is the most inefficient. Second, tobit panel analysis showed that labor productivity has positive impact on efficiency, whereas average cost has negative impact on efficiency. Third, the DEA window analysis results calculated using LDP values and standard deviations show that ferry transport is the most stable, whereas urban railway transport is the most unstable. Fourth, Malmquist productivity index results show that productivity improved 1.6% on average, with technological progress being the major factor decreasing productivity. These results indicate that it is necessary to expand the logistics market to increase the efficiency of the industry. To do so, many efforts must be made to global leadership in logistics enterprises, invest on global logistics infrastructure, increase research and development, and expand the future use of new technologies.

Projections of summertime ozone concentration over East Asia under multiple IPCC SRES emission scenarios

Lee, Jae-Bum,Cha, Jun-Seok,Hong, Sung-Chul,Choi, Jin-Young,Myoung, Ji-Su,Park, Rokjin J.,Woo, Jung-Hun,Ho, Changhoi,Han, Jin-Seok,Song, Chang-Keun Elsevier 2015 Atmospheric environment Vol.106 No.-

<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>We have developed the Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System (ICAMS) through the one-way nesting of global–regional models to examine the changes in the surface ozone concentrations over East Asia under future climate scenarios. Model simulations have been conducted for the present period of 1996–2005 to evaluate the performance of ICAMS. The simulated surface ozone concentrations reproduced the observed monthly mean concentrations at sites in East Asia with high R<SUP>2</SUP> values (0.4–0.9), indicating a successful simulation to capture both spatial and temporal variability. We then performed several model simulations with the six IPCC SRES scenarios (A2, A1B, A1FI, A1T, B1, and B2) for the next three periods, 2016–2025 (the 2020s), 2046–2055 (the 2050s), and 2091–2100 (the 2090s). The model results show that the projected changes of the annual daily mean maximum eight-hour (DM8H) surface ozone concentrations in summertime for East Asia are in the range of 2–8 ppb, −3 to 8 ppb, and −7 to 9 ppb for the 2020s, the 2050s, and the 2090s, respectively, and are primarily determined based on the emission changes of NO<SUB>x</SUB> and NMVOC. The maximum increases in the annual DM8H surface ozone and high-ozone events occur in the 2020s for all scenarios except for A2, implying that the air quality over East Asia is likely to get worse in the near future period (the 2020s) than in the far future periods (the 2050s and the 2090s). The changes in the future environment based on IPCC SRES scenarios would also influence the change in the occurrences of high-concentrations events more greatly than that of the annual DM8H surface ozone concentrations. Sensitivity simulations show that the emissions increase is the key factor in determining future regional surface ozone concentrations in the case of a developing country, China, whereas a developed country, Japan would be influenced more greatly by effects of the regional climate change than the increase in emissions.</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> Change in ozone level is determined by the combination of NO<SUB>x</SUB> and NMVOC emissions. </LI> <LI> Ozone level over East Asia would get worse in the near future (the 2020s) than far future. </LI> <LI> A high-concentration event generally increases and more frequently occurs in the future. </LI> <LI> Change in ozone air quality in a developing country depends more on emissions change. </LI> <LI> Change in ozone air quality in a developed country depends more on climate change. </LI> </UL> </P>

Image Contrast Enhancement by Illumination Change Detection

Bayanmunkh Odgerel(바잉뭉흐 어드게렐),Chang Hoon Lee(이창훈) 한국지능시스템학회 2014 한국지능시스템학회논문지 Vol.24 No.2

영상처리를 통한 이동 물체 인식과 화질 개선 등의 연구에서 조명 변화가 성능에 큰 영향을 미치기 때문에 조명 변환에 대한 대응은 컴퓨터 비전 응용 분야에서의 중요한 관심사 중 하나이다. 조명 변화를 감지할 수 있게 되면 변화가 있는 시점에서부터 적절한 개선 알고리즘을 적용함으로써 인식률 향상 및 화질 개선 효과를 증대시킬 수 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 급격한 조명 변화를 감지함에 있어 실시간성을 얻기 위하여 지역 정보를 이요하고 퍼지 논리를 도입하여 이를 효과적으로 감지하는 방법을 제안한다. 급격한 조명 변화를 감지하는 효과적인 방법으로 모서리 영역과 가운데 영역에 대한 각각의 히스토그램의 평균과 편차, 그리고 변화 추이를 반영하기 위하여 이전 프레임의 각 영역에 대한 히스토그램의 평균과 편차와의 변화량을 입력으로 급격한 조명 변화가 있을 때 입력 값의 변화 패턴을 퍼지 규칙으로 만들어 조명 변화를 감지 하도록 하였다. 또한 움직이는 물체에 가려 발생하는 변화와 구별하기 위하여 전체 영역에 대한 평균과 편차 변화량을 도입하여 논리적으로 추론하여 차이를 구별할 수 있도록 하였고 점진적으로 조명이 변화하는 것을 감지할 수 있도록 하였다. 다양한 테스트 데이터에 대해 객관적인 정확도 측정 기법을 이용하여 민감도와 특이도를 계산하여 제안한 방법의 효용성을 보였다. 적응형 뉴로-퍼지 추론시스템을 도입하여 대비제한 적응 히스토그램 평활화 (CLAHE)의 매개 변수를 자동으로 선택할 수 있는 방법을 제안하여 급격한 조명의 변화를 감지한 결과를 바탕으로 화질을 개선할 수 있음을 보였다. There are many image processing based algorithms and applications that fail when illumination change occurs. Therefore, the illumination change has to be detected then the illumination change occurred images need to be enhanced in order to keep the appropriate algorithm processing in a reality. In this paper, a new method for detecting illumination changes efficiently in a real time by using local region information and fuzzy logic is introduced. The effective way for detecting illumination changes in lighting area and the edge of the area was selected to analyze the mean and variance of the histogram of each area and to reflect the changing trends on previous frame’s mean and variance for each area of the histogram. The ways are used as an input. The changes of mean and variance make different patterns when illumination change occurs. Fuzzy rules were defined based on the patterns of the input for detecting illumination changes. Proposed method was tested with different dataset through the evaluation metrics; in particular, the specificity, recall and precision showed high rates. An automatic parameter selection method was proposed for contrast limited adaptive histogram equalization method by using entropy of image through adaptive neural fuzzy inference system. The results showed that the contrast of images could be enhanced. The proposed algorithm is robust to detect global illumination change ,and it is also computationally efficient in real applications.

대학생의 성교육 효과측정을 위한 기초 연구

장순복,최연순,강희선,박소미,Chang, Soon-Bok,Choi, Yun-Soon,Kang, Hee-Sun,Park, So-Mi 대한간호협회 1997 대한간호 Vol.36 No.2

This study was performed to provide preliminary data for the development of a useful instrument to measure the effect of sex education. The study was conducted with the voluntary participation of 155 college students enrolled in the course "Sexuality and Relationship" at Y university in Seoul. At the end of that course, they were asked to write freely about the change they had experienced on sexuality. All meaningful statements were elicited and classified into 7 categories; "Change of Knowledge", "Enlightenment", "Change of Attitude on Sexuality", "Buildup of Ability", "Buildup of. Identity", "Change of Emotion", "Change of Behavior:' There were significant changes in the areas of knowledge(28. 6%), enlightenment(27.4%), and attitudes(20.3%) about sexuality among these 7 categories. The Change of Knowledge category consists of 3 areas: "concretion of knowledge", "increase of information", and "correction of misunderstanding." In the category of Enlightenment, total 12 areas are included: "sex role", "erception of lack of knowledge", "importance of family", "life plan", "parent role", "value of life", "equality", "sexual autonomy", "importance of sexuality", "freedom of sexuality", "perception of sexual problem", and "meaning of love." The Attitude Change category consists of 8 areas. These are "being natural", "being progressive", "being sensitive", "being truthful", "being expressive", "being cautious", "being responsible", and "being confident". The category of Buildup of Ability includes 4 areas: "problem solving", "sex education", "relationship", and "communication". The category of Buildup of Identity includes "sexual identity", and "value of sexuality". The Emotional Change category includes 3 areas: "positive feeling", "negative feeling", and "breaking from negative feeling on sexuality". The Behavior Change category includes "sex-related behavioral change". In conclusion, up to now most researches on sex education effect measures only changes of knowledge, attitude, and behavior. But we believe the changes in "Enlightenment", "Buildup of Ability", "Buildup of Identity", "Change of Emotion", should be included in addition to knowledge, attitude, and behavior in the development of an instrument to measure the sex education effects. And the effect of sex education should measure the degree of learning of autonomy, enlightenment, and ability of behavior and so on rather than studying the simple changes in sexuality.enment", "Buildup of Ability", "Buildup of Identity", "Change of Emotion", should be included in addition to knowledge, attitude, and behavior in the development of an instrument to measure the sex education effects. And the effect of sex education should measure the degree of learning of autonomy, enlightenment, and ability of behavior and so on rather than studying the simple changes in sexuality.ng the simple changes in sexuality.

干支와 遅氣에 關한 硏究

尹暢烈,朴賛国 慶熙大學校韓醫科大學韓醫學硏究所 1987 慶熙韓醫大論文集 Vol.10 No.-

Brain Topological Correlates of Motor Performance Changes After Repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation

Park, Chang-hyun,Chang, Won Hyuk,Yoo, Woo-Kyoung,Shin, Yong-Il,Kim, Sung Tae,Kim, Yun-Hee Mary Ann Liebert 2014 Brain connectivity Vol.4 No.4

<P>Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) influences the brain temporally beyond the stimulation period and spatially beyond the stimulation site. Application of rTMS over the primary motor cortex (M1) has been shown to lead to plastic changes in interregional connectivity over the motor system as well as alterations in motor performance. With a sequential combination of rTMS over the M1 and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we sought changes in the topology of brain networks and specifically the association of brain topological changes with motor performance changes. In a sham-controlled parallel group experimental design, real or sham rTMS was administered to each of the 15 healthy subjects without prior motor-related dysfunctions, over the right M1 at a high frequency of 10 Hz. Before and after the intervention, fMRI data were acquired during a sequential finger motor task using the left, nondominant hand. Changes in the topology of brain networks were assessed in terms of global and local efficiency, which measures the efficiency in transporting information at global and local scales, respectively, provided by graph-theoretical analysis. Greater motor performance changes toward improvements after real rTMS were shown in individuals who exhibited more increases in global efficiency and more decreases in local efficiency. The enhancement of motor performance after rTMS is supposed to be associated with brain topological changes, such that global information exchange is facilitated, while local information exchange is restricted.</P>

Future distributions of warm‐adapted evergreen trees, <i>Neolitsea sericea</i> and <i>Camellia japonica</i> under climate change: ensemble forecasts and predictive uncertainty

Koo, Kyung Ah,Park, Seon Uk,Hong, Seungbum,Jang, Inyoung,Seo, Changwan Springer Japan 2018 Ecological research Vol.33 No.2

<P><B>Abstract</B></P><P>The prediction of the climate change effect on plant distribution has become a primary research field for conservation practices and planning. The present research predicted future distributions of warm‐adapted evergreen trees, <I>Neolitsea sericea</I> (Blume) Koidz. and <I>Camellia japonica</I> L., under climate change in the Korean Peninsula (KP) using an ensemble approach and quantified the predictive uncertainty. For these purposes, we used nine modeling algorithms and the pre‐evaluation weighted ensemble method in modelling the current distributions of those evergreen trees; furthermore, we predicted their future distributions under 20 climate change scenarios and averaged the future predictions for ensemble forecasts. The results suggest that both species would expand to the northern part of KP under climate changes; however, the spatial pattern and rate of expansions would be different. <I>C. japonica</I> showed a faster expansion than <I>N. sericea</I>. While <I>C. japonica</I> showed both inland and northward expansions under climate change, <I>N. sericea</I> was mostly distributed in coastal areas. In addition, the highly suitable habitats of <I>N. sericea</I> and <I>C. japonica</I> will decline or shift to the north under climate change. This may indicate that climate change will degrade habitat suitability of those species within the distribution boundary and may restrict their continuous range expansions under further climate changes. Considering the lack of research on the climate‐related range shifts of plants in Asia including KP, the present study provides fundamental and practical knowledge for a better understanding of climate‐related vegetation changes in Asia as well as in KP.</P>