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한국도시규모분포의 확율논적 연구 : 사이모 모형의 비판적 고찰
권정화 서울대학교 지리교육과 1988 地理敎育論集 Vol.20 No.1
This study analyzes the relationship between city-size distribution and urban growth, and tests the validity of the Simon model of the urban system in Korea during the 1960-1985 period. In urban system analysis it would seem to follow that specification of all three elements-hierarchy, nodality and circulation-are mandatory. An examination of city-size distributions is a useful starting point for a study of an urban system, because the nodality may be considered as a spatial expression of the hierarchy, and the city-size distribution generally reflects the interaction within the urban system. Although the urban systems in a nation have different historical contexts and physiographical conditions, their city-size distribution in general reveal some regularity. Since F. Auerbach discovered this fact, many researchers have attempted to explain this regularity. But we still have no satisfing explanation on it. Nevertheless national and urban planning practices in many countries have rest its theoretical base on the rank-size rule. Many researchers suggest that it is not the characteristics of the phenomena themselves that may yield an explanation of the fit but the stochastic characteristic of their growth. Among the stochastic models, the Simon model is regarded as the most plausible one. The study compares a simulated distribution of the Simon model with an expected distribution of it, and with the actual distribution. The study finds that each of the results of three patterns of distribution are different. Simulated distribution closely approximates to its expected distribution only when the total urban population size is very large. Also, then the results is similiar to rank-size rule. Thus it may be argued that the Simon model generalizes the rank-size rule, but it has limit to explain the individual patterns of city-size distribution. This study proposes a new interpretation of city size distributions using the Simon models. An urban system evolves through emergence (Lukermann's terminology), in which an urban system controls itself with the changing environment. Through this process, a system adopts new elements and transforms old elements. In urban system growth, rapid growth cities can be seen as what is adopted by the system, while the cities, which decline or stay, can be seen as what loses its importance in system. This may be interpreted by applying the Pred's theory. Large urban centers with initial advantages grow continously, while medium or small size cities grow in selective process. The city-size distribution in Korea deviates considerably from the linear relationship in the 1960's, when urban growth concentrated in such large metropolitan areas as Seoul. Since the 1970's, however, newly born cities and individual cities have grown more rapidly than other cities in the same size class, and consequently the city-size distribution gradually have approximated a linear form. Since growth rates of medium or small size cities vary considerably differences of cities within the same size class in the initial stage will be gradually larger with the passing of time. So city-size distribution tends to approximate a straight line in double logarithmic graphs, but the slope of regression line need not be 1.0. The study found that the regularity of city-size distributions may be the statistical expression of the urban system in evolving process. The growth of an urban system is affected by its network development of spatial economy, and the features of spatial economy are different in each and every country. Therefore it is the illogical proposition in its theoretical ground that the rank-size rule is the optimal spatial economy. The phenomena in which geographers are interested has probablistic characteristics in many instances. It is valuable for geographers to evaluate the importance of probablistic explanation rather than interests in elegance of stochastic techniques in their studies.
권정화 大韓神經精神醫學會 1992 신경정신의학 Vol.31 No.5
This article examined the commonly used laboratory markers of excessive alcohol consumers (elevated MCV, GGTP, ASAT and ALAT values) in 94 alcoholic men and 50 psychotic men admitted to Seoul Municipal Mental Hospital. The results were as follows; 1) The alcoholics(n=94) had significantly higher levels of MCV, GGTP, ASAT and ALAT than the nonalcoholics(n=50). 2) The alcoholics had significantly higher percentages of the abnormal elevated values of MCV, GGTP, ASAT and ALAT than the nonalcoholics. 3) GGTP was the most sensitive marker of excessive alcohol consumption being positive in 81% of alcoholics. As compared to it, MCV, ASAT and ALAT were far less sensitive (42%, 37% and 29% respectively). 4) The sensitivities of laboratory markers of excessive alcohol consumption were improved by using various combinations of MCV, GGTP, ASAT, and ALAT(range of percentage 85∼88%). 5) Age-related differences in laboratory markers were not apparent. Therefore it can be concluded that the laboratory markers are useful in the detection of excessive alcohol consumers and the diagnosis of alcohol-related health problem.