황해 동부 연안의 홀로세 해수면 변화: 대리기록과 관측자료를 통한 재검토

이은일,장태수 한국지구과학회 2015 한국지구과학회지 Vol.36 No.6

In order to understand the Holocene sea level changes in the eastern Yellow Sea, the west coast of Korea, and to compare the rates of sea level rise in each period of time, the geological proxy records for pre-instrumental era and measurement data for the present day were combined and analysed. The sea level in the Yellow Sea rose fast with a rate of about 10 mm/yr during the early Holocene, and decelerated down to 1 mm/yr since the mid to late Holocene. The rising rates of sea level in the 20th century were slightly higher than those in the late Holocene. The present-day rates of sea level rise, known as the 'rapid' rise, are in fact much lower or similar, compared to the early to mid Holocene sea levels in the study area. Recent tide-gauge data show that sea level rise in the eastern Yellow Sea has been accelerating toward the 21st century. These rising trends coincide well with global rising patterns in sea level. Additionally, the present-day rising trends of sea level in this study are correlated with increased rates of carbon dioxide concentrations and sea surface temperatures, further indicating a signal to global warming associated with the human effect. Thus, the sea level changes induced by current global warming observed in the eastern Yellow Sea and world's oceans can be considered as 'Anthropocene' sea level changes. The changes in sea level are based on instrumental measurements such as tide-gauges and satellite altimetry, meaning the instrumental era. The Holocene changes in sea level can thus be reconstructed from geological proxy records, whereas the Anthropocene sea-level changes can be solely based on instrumental measurements. 황해 동부 해안의 홀로세 해수면 변동 특성을 이해하고 시기 별 상승추세를 비교하기 위하여 지질학적 대리기록과 기기관측 자료를 통합하여 분석하였다. 홀로세 동안 황해의 해수면은 초기에 약 10 mm/yr의 속도로 빠르게 상승하고 중기를 거쳐 후기로 갈수록 해수면 상승률은 1 mm/yr정도로 둔화되며, 20세기 해수면은 홀로세 후기보다 다소 빠르게 상승하였다. 빠른 상승으로 알려진 현재 해수면 상승률은 홀로세 초기와 중기의 상승추세와 비교할 때 사실은 훨씬 낮거나 비슷하게 나타난다. 최근 조위계 자료는 황해 해수면이 21세기로 갈수록 상승률이 높아지고 있음을 나타낸다. 이러한 상승 추세는 전 지구적 해수면 변화와 일치한다. 추가적으로, 연구지역에서 현재의 해수면 상승 추세는 이산화탄소 농도와 해수표층온도의 증가율과 대비되며, 이는 인간활동에 수반된 지구온난화의 신호이다. 그러므로 황해 동부와 전세계의 해양에서 관찰되는 현 지구온난화에 의해 야기된 해수면 변화를 ‘인류세’ 해수면 변화라고 제안한다. 이 해수면변화는 조위계와 인공위성 고도계 같은 기기관측을 기반으로 하며, 계측시대를 의미한다. 이와 같이, 황해의 홀로세 해수면 변동은 대리기록으로, ‘인류세’ 해수면은 기기관측을 기반으로 한다.

국내 연안역에서의 해수면의 시간적⋅공간적 변화 분석

양수현,안태용,황규남 (사)한국연안방재학회 2022 한국연안방재학회지 Vol.9 No.3

In this study, the temporal and spatial changes of sea level in Korean coastal zone were analyzed. First, the error value of 1 hour tide data provided by the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency was excluded through preprocessing, the analysis of sea level change was performed by considering long period components through low-pass filtering. Using low-pass filtering data, the monthly mean sea level was calculated and the temporal changes of sea level were verified by data fitting using linear fit and multidimensional smoothing spline. The results of linear fit show that the tide tends to rise at most stations. And the results of multidimensional smoothing spline fit show that the increase and decrease of sea level is repeated every year. Although the amounts of change vary every year, sea levels have been repeated seasonally, with sea levels rising in summer and falling in winter. Also, Hovmöller diagram was prepared for the change of sea level in each east, west, and south coast, and the temporal and spatial changes of sea level were analyzed. Compared to the past, recent sea level changes increased in all points. Especially, in the west coast, the sea level increased more in the south (Mokpo) area than in the north (Yeongjong Bridge), and the south (Mokpo) area of the west coast could be a vulnerable area due to the rise in sea level.

Sea-Level Trend at the Korean Coast

Cho, Kwangwoo 한국환경과학회 2002 한국환경과학회지 Vol.11 No.11

Based on the tide gauge data from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) collected at 23 locations in the Korean coast, the long-term sea-level trend was computed using a simple linear regression fit over the recorded length of the monthly mean sea-level data. The computed sea-level trend was also corrected for the vertical land movement due to post glacial rebound(PGR) using the ICE-4G(VM2) model output^12). It was found that the PGR-corrected sea-level trend near Korea was 2.310 ± 2.220 mm/yr, which is higher than the global average at 1.0~20.mm/yr, as assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)^1). The regional distribution of the long-term sea-level trend near Korea revealed that the South Sea had the largest sea-level rise followed by the West Sea and East Sea, respectively, supporting the result of the previous study by Seo et al.^7) However, due to the relatively short record period and large spatial variability, the sea-level trend from the tide gauge data for the Korea coast could be biased with a steric sea-level rise by global warming during the 20th century.

고김해만을 둘러싼 해수면변동 재고

천선행(Cheon, Seon-haeng) 부산고고학회 2010 고고광장 Vol.- No.6

신석기시대 해수면 변동연구는 김해 수가리패총에서 확인된 패각마모층에서부터 비롯된다. 그러나 패각마모층 형성과 관련된 성인의 검증과정이 충분하지 못하고, 고김해만 주변에서 해발고도가 7m까지 상승하였다는 결과도 부족하기 때문에, 그대로 받아들이기 어렵다. 본고에서는 먼저 해수면 변동양상을 엿볼 수 있는 현상을 열거하고 그 한계점을 정리하였다. 이러한 자연과학적 방법의 활용가능성과 한계점을 인식하고, 고김해만을 둘러싼 해수면변동 연구성과를 재정리하여, 신석기시대 해수면 변동양상을 추정해보았다. 다만, 본고에서 해수면 변동은 고고학적으로 혹은 자연과학적 방법으로 측정된 연대측정결과가 있는 시점에서만 복원이 가능하고, 대부분의 연구가 6000B.P.전후와 4300B.P.(4100B.P.)전후, 4000B.P.이후에 집중된다. 그리고 최근에 증가된 자료를 종합하여, 각 시점별 해수면 높이 범위 폭을 설정하였다. 그 결과, 수가리패총이 위치하는 낙동강 삼각주평야의 6000B.P.전후에 해수면은 -1.3~1.153m에 존재하였을 것으로 추정하였다. 이후 5000B.P.까지는 해수면이 소폭 진동하면서 어느 정도 안정화 되었을 것으로 생각된다. 4300B.P.(4100B.P.)에 해수면은 -0.4~2m사이에 존재하였을 가능성이 많다. 4000B.P.이후 해수면이 약간 하강하였을 것으로 추정되나 양호한 자료가 확인된바 없어 더 이상의 검토는 어렵다. 삼한시대 이후 해수면이 다시 상승하는데, 예안리유적 부근에서 사주가 형성되고, 율하-관동리유적에서 잔교시설이 확인되는 것으로 보아 해수면은 2.6m에 이르렀다가 이후 기수역화가 진행된다고 판단된다. 앞으로의 자료증가에 따라, 각 시점별로 제시한 해수면 범위 폭은 더욱 좁아질 것으로 기대한다. The study on sea-level changes in Neolithic age started from confirming Layers of abraded shells found at Sugari shell-midden. But, It is not acceptable that way because there isn’t enough inspection to clear the source of forming abraded shells, and the evidence is not enough that the sea-level rose up to 7m around Paleo-Gimhae bay. In this paper, I tried to re-examinate the existing studies on sea-level changes of Gokimhae bay, and then presumed the change process of sea-level in Neolithic period. But The sea-level can be reconstructed at the point of time being results of C14 dating, so that most of studies are concentrated at about 6000B.P., 4300B.P.(4100B.P.) and after 4000B.P.. Using these studies and lately added Archaeological materials, I tried to make a settlement of the range of Sea-level at each point of time studied and measured. As a result, It is supposed that the sea-level around 6000B.P. was in the range of -1.3~1.153m in the Nakdong River delta located at Sugari shell-midden. after then until 5000B.P., It is thought that the sea-level had become calm swinging in narrow limits. About 4300B.P.(4100B.P.), The sea-level must have existed in -0.4~2m. Since 4000B.P., The sealevel showed a little falling down, but It is difficult to give a more investigation for no more good data. It is presumed that the sea-level rose up to 2.6m again and before long became brackish water after Three-Han period, through a sandbar was made adjoining Yeanri site and a landing pier facility has found in Yulha-Gwandongri site. The range of sea-level at each time suggested above is going to be narrow according to an increase in data.

Spatial and Seasonal Variations of Sea Level in the Red Sea, 1958-2001

Riyad Manasrah,H.M. Hasanean,Saber Al-Rousan 한국해양과학기술원 2009 Ocean science journal Vol.44 No.3

The present study investigated the variability of monthly mean sea level data and discussed its relation with climatic events in the Red Sea during 1958-2001. The data were obtained from Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA), for three different locations (north, central and south) in the Red Sea. Spatial and temporal variability as well as trends and periodicity of sea level time series records in the three locations was investigated using One-way ANOVA test, weighted running mean filter and autocorrelation spectral analysis. Results revealed that mean sea level in the northern Red Sea was permanently lower than its central and southern parts. Moreover, the mean sea level during winter and spring in the three locations was significantly higher than summer and autumn seasons. Increasing and decreasing of sea level trends with respect to time were also observed. Inter-decadal variations in sea level including a fairly regular quasi 2.5-2.7 year oscillation in all seasons were detected, although its amplitude varied among different cycles. Studying the cyclicity in the hydroclimatic record can resolve some of the complexities of the hydroclimate system. The sign of Quasi Biennial Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation and sunspots events may have an important influence in sea level variations of the Red Sea.

지역 평균해수면을 고려한 태안지역의 해수면 상승에 따른 침수 취약성 평가

김장수,장동호 건국대학교 기후연구소 2013 기후연구 Vol.8 No.3

In analyzing the inundation area attributed to the sea level brought about by climate change, previous researchers derived a different inundation area from the actual one by applying a uniform sea level rise without taking into account the regional mean sea level. This study has attempted to analyze the inundation area by devising a sea-level rise scenario that considers the regional mean sea level of the study area. In addition, a comparative analysis was conducted on the area of inundation vulnerabilities between the sea level rise scenario that takes into account the regional mean sea level and one that does not. As a result of study, an error between the actual mean sea level and topographic elevation was corrected by using the height of the tide observation data of the area. Next, a total of nine scenarios on the sea level rise of the Taean region (SLR-T 1.1~SLR-T 3.3) were devised using the IPCC SRES scenario, RCP 8.5 scenario, height of the tide data and storm surge height, among others. Finally, the results showed that the inundation area by scenario was at least 4.17km2(SLR-T 1.1) up to 168.41km2(SLR-T 3.3), which was about 45% less than that of the scenario devised without considering the mean sea level that reflects the regional differences. In other words, results of the analysis on the inundation area using conventional methods turned out to be wider than that of the actual inundation area.

앙상블 경험적 모드 분해법을 사용한 태평양의 지역별 해수면 변화 분석

차상철,문재홍 한국해양과학기술원 2019 Ocean and Polar Research Vol.41 No.3

Natural variability associated with a variety of large-scale climate modes causes regional differences in sea level rise (SLR), which is particularly remarkable in the Pacific Ocean. Because the superposition of the natural variability and the background anthropogenic trend in sea level can potentially threaten to inundate low-lying and heavily populated coastal regions, it is important to quantify sea level variability associated with internal climate variability and understand their interaction when projecting future SLR impacts. This study seeks to identify the dominant modes of sea level variability in the tropical Pacific and quantify how these modes contribute to regional sea level changes, particularly on the two strong El Niño events that occurred in the winter of 1997/1998 and 2015/2016. To do so, an adaptive data analysis approach, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), was undertaken with regard to two datasets of altimetry-based and in situ-based steric sea levels. Using this EEMD analysis, we identified distinct internal modes associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) varying from 1.5 to 7 years and low-frequency variability with a period of ~12 years that were clearly distinct from the secular trend. The ENSO-scale frequencies strongly impact on an east-west dipole of sea levels across the tropical Pacific, while the low-frequency (i.e., decadal) mode is predominant in the North Pacific with a horseshoe shape connecting tropical and extratropical sea levels. Of particular interest is that the low-frequency mode resulted in different responses in regional SLR to ENSO events. The low-frequency mode contributed to a sharp increase (decrease) of sea level in the eastern (western) tropical Pacific in the 2015/2016 El Niño but made a negative contribution to the sea level signals in the 1997/1998 El Niño. This indicates that the SLR signals of the ENSO can be amplified or depressed at times of transition in the low-frequency mode in the tropical Pacific.

울산 세죽유적 일대에서 확인되는 해수면 상승흔적과 그 성격에 대하여

이동주 한국신석기학회 2013 한국신석기연구 Vol.- No.26

This study has examined that the signs of rising sea levels and those aspects after the last ice age represented by the Late Paleolithic era, while passing through a rapid process of global warming to the current level in the beginning through the relics of Ulsan Sejuk and nearby Hwang Seong-Dong. Ulsan Sejuk relics could be called much attention because it consisted of the relics in the early Neolithic period mostly, as well as located below sea level, unlike the height of the point with 18tannin removal facilities which were directly related to sea level and checked the shape of a belt along the coast. However, the order of the story in Sejuk relics was leaving a lot of review about the order of the story and those aspects of it because redeposited pattern was confirmed and up as disturbance. Recently a research of the remains Hwang Seong-Dong A and B branches, located near Sejuk relics, was able to identify the aspect of that time more specifically through the layers were compared to each other in sequence. At first, as a result of analyzing pottery from three places including Sejuk remains could be distinguished in chronological order between the ages of six stages,seasonally all the steps corresponded to the initial stages or the early stages. The second half of Sejuk remains, two and three steps corresponded to the end groups of Earthenware Bowl with Raised Pattern and have checked some common features with the early stage of Hwang Seong-Dong A and B branches, steps 4 and 5 appeared only at the branches focusing on Earthenware Bowl with Pinched and Young Seon-Dong type Earthenware Bowl with Press Taking Pattern, the last six steps as the late stages of Earthenware Bowl with Press Taking Pattern was identified only Hwang Seong-Dong branch B. This attempt was based on the analysis of the layers, Neolithic cultural layers were compared to the height and the order shown in the drawing for each report on the basis of the current sea level. As a result, the timing of sea level rising affecting Sejuk remains has largely confirmed, the first was by 5,700 BP that sea levels was to reach the point about -50cm at that time, the second was the step Ⅶ layer of Hwang Seong-Dong point B that it was checked to reach the point about -20cm at that time, that period was estimated between 5,100 BP. Therefore, the tannin removal facilities of Sejuk remains had formed this 2nd sea level rising period and could be viewed as representing the sea level of that time. The cultural changes of this period were identified that Earthenware Bowl with Raised Pattern of the early stages declined before and after the 1st sea level rising period, converted to the aspects of new Earthenware Bowl with Pinched and Young Seon-Dong type Earthenware Bowl with Press Taking Pattern. In this 2nd sea level rising period the tradition of Earthenware Bowl with Raised Pattern had completely destroyed and then Young Seon-Dong type Earthenware Bowl with Press Taking Pattern had made up the center of that period. Through this, not only the nature of the layers of remains and artifacts excavated at the shell mound of the coastal areas could be more clearly, but the chronological order of Neolithic culture, appeared on the West Coast shell mound site with extreme tidal difference, could be explained the reason not exceeding BP 5,700.

전지구 해양-해빙결합모형과 SRES A1B 시나리오 기반 동아시아 해수면 미래 변화 전망

김민우(Minwoo Kim),김철호(Cheol-Ho Kim),장찬주(Chan Joo Jang) 한국연안방재학회 2021 한국연안방재학회지 Vol.8 No.4

To project the future sea level rise in the East Asian Seas due to global warming, regional sea level variations are downscaled from three climate system models (GFDL-CM2.1, ECHAM5/MPI-OM, MIROC3.2(hires)) using a global ocean-sea ice coupled model with non-Boussinesq approximation. Based on the SRES A1B Scenario, the projected ensemble mean sea level rise (rate of rise) for the East Sea, Yellow Sea and East China Sea from 1995 to 2050 is 15.60cm (2.84mm/year), 16.49cm (3.0mm/year) and 16.43cm (2.99mm/year), respectively. With the inclusion of the future change of land ice melting and land water storage, the mean sea level rise (rate of rise) increases to 33.55cm (6.10mm/year) for the East Sea, and 34.38~34.44cm (6.25~6.26mm/year) for the Yellow and East China Seas. The present non-Boussinesq ocean model experiment shows that the future sea level rise in the East Sea is mainly due to the steric component changes by heat content increase. On the other hand, the future sea level rise in the Yellow and East China Seas appears to be mainly associated with the non-steric component change by water mass convergence.

해수면 상승과 국가성 : ILC 논의의 의의 및 한계를 중심으로

임예준 대한국제법학회 2022 國際法學會論叢 Vol.67 No.4

Sea-level rise is a pressing concern of the international community as a whole. In 2018, the UN International Law Commission (‘ILC’) included the topic of ‘Sea-level rise in relation to international law’ in its long-term program of work. The syllabus for the topic suggested three issues as sub-topics to be examined concerning the legal implications of sea-level rise: the law of the sea, statehood, and the protection of persons affected by sea-level rise. In 2019, the ILC decided to include the topic in its program of work and established an open-ended Study Group. In 2021 the Study Group discussed the first sub-topic of the law of the sea, and in 2022, issues relating to statehood and the protection of persons affected by sea-level rise were discussed. This article examines the discussion of the ILC Study Group on the sub-topic of statehood, focusing on the significance of this discussion and the limitations of the ILC in dealing with statehood. Statehood in relation to sea-level rise is an issue that deserves considerable caution. The consequences of sea-level rise for statehood are an existential matter of sovereign States and are related to the foundational aspect of international law. However, discussion of the issue is prima facie limited in that there is no generally accepted notion of ‘State’ and in that the ‘continuative elements’ for statehood are not addressed in international law. Since there is no record of situations where the territory of a State has been completely submerged or rendered uninhabitable, discussion of the issue is challenging for the ILC in terms of its materials and methodology, to deal with a purely speculative scenario lacking State practice. Moreover, the nature of the issue means it is easier to trigger policy-oriented options than to deal with the legal dimension. This fundamentally raises the question of the role to be played by the ILC, which is established to promote the progressive development of international law and its codification. This article examines the background and assumptions of the discussion and explores the issues related to statehood based on the second issues paper presented by the Co-Chairs and the Report of the Study Group. It further explores the significance, limitations, and challenges of discussions on the sub-topic of statehood, focusing on the role of the ILC. 해수면 상승은 국제공동체가 지대한 관심을 두는 주제이다. 2018년 유엔 국제법위원회(UN International Law Commission, 이하 ‘ILC’)는 ‘국제법 관련 해수면 상승(Sea-level rise in relation to international law)’을 장기작업주제로 채택하고, 해수면 상승의 법적 함의를 다루기 위해, 해양법, 국가성, 해수면 상승으로 인해 영향을 받는 사람의 보호를 세부 주제로 제시하였다. 2019년 ILC는 ‘국제법 관련 해수면 상승’을 새로운 작업주제로 채택하고 스터디그룹을 구성하였다. 2021년에는 첫 번째 해양법 주제를 다뤘으며, 2022년에는 국가성과 해수면 상승으로 인해 영향을 받는 사람의 보호 두 개의 주제를 다루었다. 이 글은 2022년 ILC가 다룬 세부 주제 중 하나인 ‘국가성’에 대한 논의를 살펴보고, 이 주제에 대한 ILC 논의의 의의 및 한계를 살펴보는 것을 목적으로 한다. 해수면 상승과 국가성은 신중한 접근이 필요한 주제이다. 해수면 상승이 국가성에 미치는 영향은 그 자체로 주권국의 실존에 관한 중대한 문제이며, 국제법 주체에 관한 논의로서 국제법의 근간과도 연결된다. 그러나 이 주제는 ‘국가’에 대해 보편적으로 합의된 정의 및 국제법상 국가의 ‘존속요건’에 대한 확인이 없는 상태에서 기존 법리 및 법적 체계 내에서 논의될 수 있는 영역의 한계가 있다. 또한, 국가실행이 없는 상태에서 추정적 시나리오를 다루어야 한다는 점은 ILC 논의의 재료와 방법론 측면에서 도전이 되고 있다. 나아가 쟁점의 성격상 법적 함의의 도출보다는 정책적 결론으로 빠지기 쉽다. 이는 국제법의 점진적 발전과 성문법전화를 위해 설립된 ILC의 역할에 관한 질문으로 이어진다. 이러한 문제의식을 바탕으로, 이 글은 먼저 논의의 배경 및 전제를 조망하고, 공동의장이 제출한 두 번째 쟁점 보고서 및 스터디그룹 논의를 거쳐 채택된 보고서를 중심으로 해수면 상승과 국가성 관련 주요 쟁점을 살펴보았다. 이를 바탕으로 ILC가 국가성 쟁점을 다룰 수 있는 논의 범위가 어디까지이며, 어떠한 결과물을 도출해 낼 수 있을지, 향후 과제는 무엇인지에 대해 고찰하였다.