부산지역 관광산업 및 관광수요의 특성: 지역산업연관표와 패널자료 분석을 중심으로

차경수,박민수 관광경영학회 2019 관광경영연구 Vol.87 No.-

This study attempts to investigate the main features of tourism industry and tourism demand in Busan and to draw useful policy implications. The analysis from the regional input-output table shows that the tourism industry in Busan plays a major role in the regional economy. However, it is more sensitive to economic conditions than the tourism industry of other regions. Therefore, industrial policies tries to make some industries a buffer industry for tourism industry, to alleviate the direct effect of business cycle fluctuations on the local economy. On the other hand, the estimation result of panel data displays that the variables such as income level, relative price, tourist facilitates and social infrastructures are statistically significant in the short run, in explaining the tourism demand of foreigners. However, in the long run, it turns out that influx of new tourists due to good reputation and social infrastructure affecting tourism environment are the most important factors. Thus, it is crucial to increase the investment in infrastructure and to improve the image of Busan to increase the number of foreign tourists in the long run. Finally, since this study uses the regional input-output table in 2013, it has a limitation in reflecting the more recent relation between the industries. Also, due to the lack of data in the tourism sector, more elaborate analysis related to the tourism demand of domestic residences for Busan was not made. Thus, for the future research, more systematic data construction and analytic skills are needed.

패널자료를 이용한 지구별ㆍ업종별 수산업협동조합의 수익에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석

김철현 ( Cheol-hyun Kim ),남종오 ( Jong-oh Nam ) 한국수산경영학회 2020 수산경영론집 Vol.51 No.1

The purpose of this paper is to analyze factors affecting the net income of regional and industrial fisheries cooperatives in South Korea using panel data. This paper utilizes linear or GLS regression models such as pooled OLS model, fixed effects model, and random effects model to estimate affecting factors of the net income of regional and industrial fisheries cooperatives. After reviewing various tests, we eventually select random effects model. The results, based on panel data between 2013 and 2018 year and 64 fisheries cooperatives, indicate that capital and area dummy variables have positive effects and employment has negative effect on the net income of regional and industrial fisheries cooperatives as predicted. However, debt are opposite with our predictions. Specifically, it turns out that debt has positive effect on the net income of regional and industrial fisheries cooperatives although it has been increased. Additionally, this paper shows that the member of confreres does not show any significant effect on the net income of regional and industrial fisheries cooperatives in South Korea. This study is significant in that it analyzes the major factors influencing changes in the net income that have not been conducted recently for the fisheries cooperatives by region and industry.

지역 축제의 고용 효과에 관한 실증 분석

김영덕 한국자료분석학회 2019 Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society Vol.21 No.6

본 논문에서는 지역 재화의 수요함수와 생산함수를 이용하여 지역축제가 수요의 변동요인으로 작용하는 구조적 모형을 도출하고, 지역패널자료를 이용하여 지역축제가 지역 고용에 미치는 영향을 실증적으로 분석하였다. 이러한 실증분석을 통해 다음과 같은 결과를 얻을 수 있었다. 첫째, 지역축제와 관련한 변수는 수요 변동요인을 통한 고용효과가 유의적으로 작동하지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 즉, 지역축제횟수, 지역축제일수, 지역축제 예산 및 지역축제 누적횟수 등 지역축제변수로 고려한 모든 변수들은 지역 고용을 증대시키는데 유의적인 영향을 가지지지 않는 것으로 추정되었다. 둘째, 지역축제변수 이외의 수요변동요인으로 고려한 관광호텔 연숙박객수의 경우에는 지역 고용에 대해서 유의적인 양(+)의 계수가 추정되었다. 이를 종합하면 2000년대 들어 지역축제는 지역 고용을 활성화하는데 성과를 거두지 못하였음을 알 수 있었다. 그러나 관광호텔 누적숙박객수의 경우 긍정적인 고용효과가 있는 것으로 비추어볼 때, 지역축제가 지향해야할 시사점은 다음과 같이 생각할 수 있다. 지역축제가 고용에 긍정적인 영향을 주기 위해서는 축제를 통한 방문관광객수를 늘이고 가능한 한 숙박을 하면서 머물 수 있는 동기나 유인을 제공하는 방향으로 지역축제의 내용과 질적 향상이 이루어지는 것이 바람직할 것으로 보인다. In this paper, we derive a structural model in which local festival acts as a variable of demand shift, and empirically analyze the effect of local festivals on regional employment using regional panel data. Through the empirical analysis, the following results are obtained. First, the variables related to regional festivals show that employment effects through demand fluctuations do not work significantly. In other words, all variables considered as local festival variables, such as the number of festivals, the number of festival days, the budget for local festivals, and the cumulative number of festivals, are estimated to have no significant effect on the change in regional employment. Second, in the case of the number of lodgings of tourist hotels considering the demand shifts other than local festival variables, a significant positive coefficient is estimated for regional employment. Taken together, local festivals have not succeeded in increasing regional employment. In order for local festivals to have a positive impact on employment, it would be desirable to improve the content and quality of local festivals to increase the number of tourists visited through festivals and to stay as long as possible.

우리나라의 대중국 수출 영향요인 분석 : 중국 31개 지역에 대하여

백은미(Eun-Mi Baek) 한국통상정보학회 2007 통상정보연구 Vol.9 No.4

The purpose of this paper is to study on export factor of Korean into China by 31 Province and City. Using the panel data on Korean export factor in China for the years 1998-2005, we examined the factors determinants of import in China(by region)from Korean firms. This study based on Gravity Model to extend and fixed & random effect Model. The result of analysis is as follows : The effect of significant on Import from Korean is FDI from Korea, export into world, import from world, population in region. But per GRDP, consumption, FDI into world variable is statistically insignificant. Also coastal region variable is not a clear.

SMEs’ Productivity in the Mexican Regions: A Spatial Panel Data Approach, 1999-2014

Roldán Andrés-Rosales,문남권,Luis Quintana-Romero,Miguel Ángel Mendoza-González 한국외국어대학교 중남미연구소 2019 중남미연구 Vol.38 No.3

In this paper, we analyze the importance of private capital in small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in determining the growth of manufacturing productivity and regional development in Mexico. Given SMEs’ current central role in employment, output, and wages, we focus on their productivity and competitiveness by studying regional concentration and spillover effects. We use spatial panel data and a spatial Durbin model to find the direct and indirect effects of capital that depend on the size of the enterprise; we also use information from the economic census and the spatial weight matrices. The results suggest that productivity is boosted by the private capital of SMEs. This study allows us to identify the advantages within each region as well as their strengths and weaknesses according to each productive structure.

An empirical analysis on the housing prices in the Pearl River Delta Economic Region of China

WANGPENG,강명구 서울시립대학교 도시과학연구원 2014 도시과학국제저널 Vol.18 No.1

As the region with the fastest and highest level of economic growth in China, the instabilityof the Pearl River Delta Economic Region’s (PRDER) housing prices has alwaysbeen a social focus. In order to make housing price stabilization policies effective, moreresearch is required about China’s housing market mechanism and the influential factorsof housing prices. China used to be a socialist economy since 1949. Deng Xiaoping beganChina’s economic reform and introduced market principles in 1978. Since then China’shousing had undergone transition from socialist system to market economy. After 1998,China had housing market economy. This paper aims to understand the housing pricebehaviour of newly transformed housing market economy of China by analysing theinfluential factors of China’s housing prices compared to that of conventional marketeconomy. This study established a fixed-effect model of panel data and conducts empiricalanalysis on the influential factors of housing prices in nine cities in the PRDER byadopting the least squares dummy variable method. Because access to China’s housingmarkets data is extremely limited, collecting reliable and consistent housing marketdata at city level was the biggest challenge in this research. We successfully compiledlocal housing market data at city level including housing sales price index of the ninecities, number of resident (registered and non-registered-but-long-stay residents), GDPper capita, residential sales area, annual investment on housing development land purchasingcost, and so forth. The analysis confirms that China’s housing market follows amarket mechanism. Demand is the major driver of housing prices, housing supply tendsto lower the housing prices, and land cost is positively correlated with housing prices. Since cities grow with continuing urbanization and industrialization, housing supplypolicy seems required to effectively stabilize the housing price.

Empirical likelihood for spatial dynamic panel data models

Li Yinghua,Qin Yongsong 한국통계학회 2022 Journal of the Korean Statistical Society Vol.51 No.2

Spatial dynamic panel data (SDPD) models have received great attention in economics in recent 10 years. Existing approaches for the estimation and test of SDPD models are quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) approach and generalized method of moments (GMM). In this article, we introduce the empirical likelihood (EL) method to the statistical inference for SDPD models. The EL ratio statistics are constructed for the parameters of spatial dynamic panel data models. It is shown that the limiting distributions of the empirical likelihood ratio statistics are chi-squared distributions, which are used to construct confdence regions for the parameters of the models. Simulation results show that the EL based confdence regions outperform the normal approximation based confdence regions.

미관찰 지역 특성을 고려한 내국인 국제선 항공수요 추정 모형

유정훈(YU, Jeong Whon),최정윤(CHOI, Jung Yoon) 대한교통학회 2018 대한교통학회지 Vol.- No.-

지속적으로 증가하는 국제선 항공수요에 대웅하기 위해 지방 광역권에도 새로운 공항 건설 및 기존 공항 확장 계획이 이루어지고 있다. 그러나 기존 항공수요예측은 우리나라 전체 항공수요 또는 주요 도시 간의 항공수요에 대해서 수행되어 왔으며, 지방의 고유 특성을 고려한 지역별 항공수요예측은 많이 이루어지지 않았다. 본 연구에서는 영남권 국제선 항공수요를 대상으로 하였고, 현실적으로 관측하기 어려운 지방 광역권의 고유 특성을 반영할 수 있는 패널 자료를 활용한 fixed-effects model을 최적 모형으로 제안하였다. 모형 검증결과를 살펴보면 패널 자료 분석은 시계열 특성을 가지는 몇 개의 거시 사회경제지표만을 사용한 모형에서 다루기 어려운 허구적 회귀와 미관찰 이질성을 효과적으로 처리하고 있음을 알 수 있다. 다양한 통계적 검증과 적합성 평가를 통해서 본 연구에서 제안한 fixed-effects model이 다른 계량경제 모형들에 비해서 영남권 국제선 수요예측에 있어서 우수함을 증명하였다. In order to meet the ever-increasing demand for international air travel, several plans are underway to open new airports and expand existing provincial airports. However, existing air demand forecasts have been based on the total air demand in Korea or the air demand among major cities. There is not much forecast of regional air demand considering local characteristics. In this study, the outbound air travel demand in the southeastern region of Korea was analyzed and the fixed-effects model using panel data was proposed as an optimal model that can reflect the inherent characteristics of metropolitan areas which are difficult to observe in reality. The results of model validation show that panel data analysis effectively addresses the spurious regression and unobserved heterogeneity that are difficult to handle in a model using only a few macroeconomic indicators with time series characteristics. Various statistical validation and conformance tests suggest that the fixed-effects model proposed in this study is superior to other econometric models in predicting demand for international demand in the southeastern region.

고령자 노동과 삶의 만족도의 관계: 지역별 비교를 중심으로

권혁창 ( Hyeokchang Kwon ),홍다영 ( Dayoung Hong ) 사단법인 아시아문화학술원 2021 인문사회 21 Vol.12 No.3

본 연구의 목적은 한국 고령자 노동과 삶의 만족도의 관계를 지역을 중심으로 검토하는 것이다. 한국복지패널 7차 년도(2012)에 65-74세 1,262명을 12차 년도(2017)까지 추적 조사한 자료를 활용하여 패널분석방법으로 분석하였다. 연구의 분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 고령자의 삶의 만족도에 영향을 미치는 인구 사회학적 변인, 신체 건강 변인, 정신건강 변인, 경제적 변인, 제도 변인을 통제했을 때, 고령자 노동과 삶의 만족도는 정적인 관계로 나타났다. 그러나 추가로 지역을 통제했을 때, 고령자 노동과 삶의 만족도 관계는 유의미하지 않았다. 둘째, 지역을 대도시, 중소도시, 농촌으로 나누어 분석한 결과 지역별로 고령자 노동은 삶의 만족도에 각기 다른 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 연구 결과를 바탕으로 본 연구는 고령자 고용정책은 지역 특성을 반영하여 적용되어야 함을 제언하였다. The purpose of this study is to examines the relationship between the work for the elderly in Korea and their life satisfaction, focusing on the region. Using the 7-12 wave of Korea Welfare Panels, 65-74 year-olds are analyzed by panel data analysis method. The results of the analyses are as follows: First, when the social demographic factors, physical and mental health, economic factors, and the institutional factors are controlled for, the life satisfaction level of the elderly and their works are significantly and positively associated. However, when further local control was controlled for, the relationship between the elderly work and life satisfaction is not statistically significant. Second, the analyses in large cities, small cities and rural areas shows that the elderly work has different effects on their life satisfaction by regions. This study suggests that the employment policy for the elderly should be applied reflecting the regional characteristics.

The Impact of Gyeongbu High Speed Rail Construction on Regional Economic Growth

김현우,이두헌,박희성 대한토목학회 2013 KSCE JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING Vol.17 No.6

The Gyeongbu High Speed Rail (KTX) was constructed with the aim to improve people's quality of life and for the growth of regional economies. However, contrary to expectations, there are discussions of economy being focused on metropolitan areas due to the Straw Effect. In this paper, the influence of large-scaled land development projects on local economy was analyzed through the case of KTX project. For this purpose, an empirical analysis model, which utilizes neoclassical model of economic growth and the panel data of 16 cities and provinces from 1999 to 2008 was used to make the analysis through the generalized least square method. As a result, the developed neoclassical model of economic growth proved to be useful in explaining local economic growth in Korea,and large-scale land development projects such as the KTX was found to cause negative effects on local economic growth. From this,it seems problematic to assume the construction of High Speed Rail (hereafter HSR) to be beneficial to the economy of the corresponding regions. The results should prove to be an important resource for policies regarding more efficient and balanced land development projects in the future.