산업연관분석의 중간투입유발에 대한 해석 연구

심상열,김윤경 한국은행 2016 經濟分析 Vol.22 No.3

Many studies recognize the simple multiplier to be important for the estimation of direct and indirect effects, i.e., total effects. The usual analysis of total effects uses the final demand as a source of generating them, where all sectors’ total input requirements of each product are added to be equivalent to the sum of all sectors’ direct inputs of the said product. On the contrary, it is not quite common to utilize total effects of the gross output representing production activity. Depending on business projects and objectives of the research, however, the gross output needs to be considered as a generating source instead of the final demand. This study clarifies the concept and the correct usage of total input requirements, which helps avoid potential confusion about total effects derived from the final demand, the gross output or the output of a specific industry. The results of this study shows that Sancho (2012) derives the right multiplier for total input requirements of the gross output in view of the basic structures of the input-output model. Sancho’s multiplier is consistent with total input requirements calculated under the condition of equality between total inputs (or production) and total demand. It also includes all the necessary and sufficient inputs, directly and indirectly, to produce one unit of a specific commodity. This study proposes an exogenous industry method to derive Sancho’s multiplier where all the input demand of a specific industry is treated as exogenous constants. In the exogenous model, however, the source of generating total requirements should include the final demand and the derived input demand for the commodity produced in the exogenous industry. 유발효과를 추정하는 많은 연구들이 유발계수를 이용하면서 유발계수를 중요하게 인식하고 있다. 최종수요의 유발효과분석은 유발원인자로 최종수요를 사용하며, 여기에서 추정한 제품별 중간투입유발 총액은 산업별로 투입된 제품별 중간재 직접 투입 총액과 동일하다. 최종수요의 유발과는 달리 생산활동인 총부분산출(gross output)의 유발은 일반적으로 사용하지 않는다. 그러나 분석 대상이나 목적에 따라서는 최종수요의 유발효과가 아니라, 총부분산출의 생산유발효과를 고려해야 할 때가 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 중간투입유발의 개념을 검토하고, 최종수요, 총부분산출, 특정 산업 산출액의 중간투입유발 개념을 비교하였다. 연구 결과에 따르면 총부분산출을 고려할 때에는 산업연관표의 투입액(산출액)은 총수요액과 동일해야 하고, 특정 제품을 생산하기 위하여 직접적으로 투입되는 중간재의 연쇄적 생산구조를 고려하고 있다는 점에 근거하여 Sancho (2012)가 도출한 유발계수를 이용하는 것이 적합하다. 그리고 특정산업의 외생화방법으로 총부분산출의 중간투입유발계수를 도출하는 방법의 하나로서 특정 산업의 모든 중간투입을 최종수요로 외생화하는 방법을 제안하였다. 유발액과 유발원인자의 관계를 검토하여 총부분산출의 중간투입유발액을 산정할 때에 유발원인자는 해당부문의 최종수요와 자기 중간투입유발액을 합한 값이어야 한다.

투입산출 구조분해를 이용한 지역별 산업구조와 생산성의 연계성 분석

김의준,이유진,장재원,최은진 한국지역학회 2011 지역연구 Vol.27 No.4

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between regional industrial structure and the productivity growth. For this purpose, this paper uses three structural decomposition methods to analyse regional industry differences in 2005 Multiregional Input-Output table such as push-pull analysis, Q-analysis, and output decomposition analysis. This paper finds that the forward and backward effects of service sectors are substantially strong in Seoul Metropolitan, Kangwon and Jeju area in terms of Push-Pull analysis and Q-analysis. In addition, the output decomposition analysis shows that the above three regions could lead to high levels of technological innovation in the service sectors. However, the result cannot confirm any causality between the service intensive growth and the productivity level for Baumol's paradox in Korea. 본 연구의 목적은 투입산출 구조분해를 이용하여 지역별 산업구조와 생산성 증대효과에 대한 연계성을 분석하는 것이다. 2005년도 지역 산업연관표의 압출-흡입 분석(Push-Pull Analysis)과 Q-분석을 통해 지역 간 산업구조의 차이를 규명하고, 생산량 변화 분해 분석(Output Decomposition Analysis)을 통해 지역별 생산성의 차이를 분석하였다. 압출-흡입 분석에 있어서는 수도권, 강원권 및 제주권의 서비스업 연계효과가 높은 값을 나타냈다. 또한, 수도권, 강원권, 제주권의 서비스업 전방연계효과가 높게 나타나고, 강원권, 제주권은 후방연계효과에서도 높은 값을 나타냈다. 마지막으로 서비스화와 생산성 변화 간의 연관관계를 살펴보기 위해 전 산업의 기술 수준에 따른 생산량 순위를 살펴본 결과, 지역의 서비스화와 전체 산업의 생산량 순위는 일치하지 않아 결과적으로 국내에서는 보몰의 역설이 성립하지 않는 것으로 나타났다.

Revisiting the Role of Imported Inputs in Asian Economies

이우철 한국무역학회 2023 Journal of Korea trade Vol.27 No.5

Purpose – Global production chains and their impacts on economic growth have drawn extensive attention from researchers. Close relationships among global production chains, export and economic growth have been illuminated, as evidenced by the fast and stable economic growth of East Asian economies. These economies perform various roles within global production chains using offshoring, in which the impact of import on domestic gross output is as strong as that of export. The impact of import on economic growth would depend on whether imported inputs substitute or complement domestic inputs production, which is likely to vary according to individual countries' functions within global production chains. The economic growth of concerned countries would also be diverse. However, little attention has been paid to the impact brought by imports compared to its significance. Design/methodology – The principal methodology used in this paper is structural decomposition analysis (SDA), widely chosen to elucidate the impact of various factors on domestic gross output using input-output tables. This paper extracts trade data of six Asian economies from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) 2016 release that covers 43 countries for the period 2000-2014. The extracted data is then categorised into 37 sectors. First, this paper calculates the Feenstra-Hanson Offshoring Index (OSI) of each country. It then applies SDA to measure the changes in each economy's gross output, export, import input coefficients, and domestic input coefficients. Finally, after taking the first difference from pooled time-series data, it estimates the correlations between imported input coefficients and OSI using the ordinary least square (OLS) method. Findings – The main findings of this paper can be summarised as follows. Firstly, all six countries have increasingly engaged in global production chains, as evidenced by the growing size of OSI. Secondly, there are negative correlations in five countries except Japan, with sectoral differences. Thirdly, changes in import input coefficients are not negative in all six countries, indicating that offshoring does not necessarily substitute for domestic inputs production but does complement it and, therefore, fosters their economic growth. This is observed in China, Indonesia, Korea and Taiwan. Offshoring has led to an increase in the use of imported inputs, which has, in turn, stimulated domestic inputs production in these countries. Originality/value – While existing studies focus on the role of export in evaluating the impact of participating global production chains, this paper explicitly examines the unexplored impact of import on domestic gross output by considering both the substitution and the complementary effect, using the WIOD. The findings of this paper suggest that Asian economies have achieved fast and stable economic growth not only through successful export management but also through effective import management within global production chains. This paper recommends that the Korean government and enterprises carefully choose offshoring strategies to minimise disruption to domestic production chains or foster them.

An Input-Output Analysis on the Economic Effect of the Korean First Medium-term Logistics Plan (2001-2005)

박명섭,윤재호 한국무역상무학회 2008 貿易商務硏究 Vol.40 No.-

This study introduces the adoption of the logistics industry by the Korean government as a threshold of overcoming economic difficulties. The core contents of the National Logistics Plans (2001-2020) which contain the basic principles of the logistics policies of the Korean government and its aim to be an‘Excellent Nation of Logistics’is introduced. The economic effect of the logistics policies implemented between 2001 and 2005, (the period of the first Medium-term Logistics Plan according to the National Logistics Plans (2001-2020) set up by the Korean government at the end of 2000) is estimated through input-output analysis. The input-output analysis result is as follows: the total output effect is 8,856 billion won of which indirect output effect is 3,982.9 billion won; indirect output effect comes mainly from real estate and business services, non-metal products, metal products, electrical and electronics products, finance and insurance, wholesale and retail, petroleum and coal; the total amount of value-added effect is 3,376 billion won and total import effect is 726 billion won. Employment effect including self-employed and unpaid family supporters with paid laborers is 79,203.7 people of which paid laborers comprise 67,547.7 people.

부동산 산업의 경제적 파급효과와 충격반응 분석

서진호,진창하 한국부동산연구원 2023 부동산연구 Vol.33 No.3

This study examines the effect of the real estate industry on other industries as input and output resources. We define the real estate industry based on the two- and three-digit industry classification system as the recent real estate industry expands into other interdisciplinary business sectors. We also aggregate the sub-sector of the real estate–related industry into the broad real estate–related industry. We analyze input–out tables to find the spillover effect and value chain to other related industries by utilizing a total of 17 annual industry input–output tables from the Bank of Korea. This study also extends the spillover effect of the real estate industry along with a fluctuation of macroeconomic conditions. We find that the magnitude of the economic effect of the real estate industry on other industries is large when we classify the real estate industry into the two-digit industry classification system except for the analysis of the additive value impact. We also examine the impulse response analysis (IRA) by utilizing vector autoregression analysis. IRA indicates that macroeconomic variables affect the real estate industry and drive the same directional spillover effect on other industries. Our analysis segregates the national input–output analysis into the regional input–output analysis to identify the economic effect of real estate market fluctuation of the Seoul Metropolitan Area on other regions.

An Analysis of Sectoral GHG Emission Intensity from Energy Use in Korea

Chung Whan-Sam(정환삼),Susumu Tohno(東野達),Shim Sang-Yul(심상렬) 한국기술혁신학회 2008 기술혁신학회지 Vol.11 No.2

2006년 우리나라의 에너지 사용은 총수입액(28%), 해외의존(97%), 온실가스배출(83%-year 2004)의 비중을 차지하고 있어, 경제나 환경 정책에서 매우 중요한 산업분야이다. 그러나 현실적으로 국내 에너지사용에 따른 온실가스 배출 추계는 산업별 사용량에 국제기구가 권고한 계수를 곱해 사용하는 수준에 머물고 있다. 이러한 수준으로는 post Kyoto Protocol을 통한 개도국의 참여를 강제하려는 새로운 패러다임에 대응할 논리와 정책을 바르게 수립할 수 없다. 본 연구는 한국은행이 발간한 2000년 산업연관표를 기반으로 이형단위 산업연관표를 작성하고, 이를 통해 경제 구성 부문별로 에너지 사용에 따른 온실가스 배출 특성을 분석하였다. 분석은 네 가지 측면에서 이루어졌으며, 이는 섹터별 온실가스 배출 밀도 추정, 각 그룹에서 온실가스 배출을 야기한 연료원별 기여도 측정, 산업별 배출계수의 산정, 그리고 국가 총배출량 추정이다. 여기서 추정한 배출량은 온실가스 배출에 관한 국가 공식 통계치와 비교 검증하였다. 연구 접근법은 에너지의 직접사용 과정에서 배출되는 온실가스의 양 뿐만 아니라 배출을 유발하는 간접원인까지도 분석하고 있어, 최근 확산되고 있는 전과정분석(Life Cycle Analysis) 개념에 적합한 모형이다. 이 모형은 향후 온실가스 저감 정책 수립의 중요한 기반이 될 것으로 기대한다. In 2006, the share of energy in Korea amounted to 28% from the total import, 97% from overseas dependency, and 83% for the national Greenhouse Gas(GHG) emission in 2004. Thus, from the aspects of economical and environmental policies, an energy analysis is very important, for the industry to cope with the imminent pressure for climate change. However, the estimation of GHG gas emissions due to an energy use is still done in a primitive way, whereby each industry's usage is multiplied by coefficients recommended from international organizations in Korea. At this level, it is impossible to formulate the prevailing logic and policies in face of a new paradigm that seeks to force participation of developing countries through so called post-Kyoto Protocol. In this study, a hybrid energy input-output(E-IO) analysis is conducted on the basis of the input-output(IO) table of 2000 issued by the Bank of Korea in 2003. Furthermore, according to economic sectors, emission of the GHG relative to an energy use is characterized. The analysis is accomplished from four points of view as follows: 1) estimating the GHG emission intensity by 96 sectors, 2) measuring the contribution ratio to GHG emissions by 14 energy sources, 3) calculating the emission factor of 3 GHG compounds, and 4) estimating the total amount of national GHG emission. The total amount estimated in this study is compared with a national official statistical number. The approach could be an appropriate model for the recently spreading concept of a Life Cycle Analysis as it analyzes not only a direct GHG emission from a direct energy use but also an associated emission from an indirect use. We expect this model can provide a form for the basis of a future GHG reduction policy making.

산업연관 승수효과를 통한 부문별 성장 잠재력 분석: IO모형과 OO모형을 통한 비교분석을 중심으로

김호언 국토연구원 2009 국토연구 Vol.63 No.-

Gim and Kim(2008b, 2009)에 의해 개발된 산출⋅산출(OO)모형은 투입․산출(IO)모형이 갖는 부문 사이의 연속적 연결과 과대추정의 문제를 동시에 해결하기 위하여 개발되어진 것이다. 또한 OO모형과 OO표는 IO모형과 IO표에 대한 대안적인 연구 방법을 제시하고 있다. 예를 들면 외생적 최종수요 변화에 대한 파급효과분석을 위해서는 전통적인 IO모형을, 외생적(혹은 내생적) 산출물 변화에 의한 각종 유발효과 등의 분석을 위해서는 새롭게 개발된 OO모형을 활용하면 된다. 본 논문의 연구 목적은 다음과 같다. 첫째, IO모형과 OO모형의 성격과 특성을 상호 대비하는 데 있다. 둘째, IO모형과 OO모형을 통한 부문별 성장 잠재력을 비교분석 하고자 한다. 성장 잠재력을 설명하는 지표는 투입계수행렬과 산출계수행렬, 전․후방연관효과, 각종 승수효과 등을 토대로 분석하고자 한다. 개별 부문의 값에 의한 부문분류는 상위(혹은 하위) 10%에 해당되는 부문은 높은 성장 잠재력(혹은 높은 성장 애로)이 있는 부문으로 규정하였다. Recently, Gim and Kim(2008b) verified that there is no consecutive connection between the output requirements matrix for final demand and the total output and that there are some limits to counting the economic impacts of the initial change of output. Therefore, we newly developed the Output-Output(OO) model and compiled the Output-Output table to solve the consecutive connection and overestimation problems naturally on the basis of the output requirements matrix for output . Based on the results and research findings in the literature of Output-Output Economics, the specific objectives of this paper can be summarized as follows. (1) We perform a comparative analysis between the IO and OO models in structure and characteristics to choose the best fitting model which coincide with the research themes. (2) We compute good indicators of growth(or impact) potential by sectors through interindustry multiplier and linkage effects originally developed by the author in the raw data of 2007 Output-Output Tables. The major findings from the empirical analysis are followed below. The growth potential sectors, which account for the top 30% of the standard normal distribution(SND), judged by sectoral multipliers for output, employment and income are petroleum and coal products, basic metals, and transport equipment, etc. in the IO model. As for the OO model, the only high growth potential sector, which account for the top 10% of the SND, is petroleum and coal products sector.

An Input-Output Analysis on the Economic Effect of the Korean First Medium-term Logistics Plan (2001-2005)

Pak.Myong Sop,Yoon.Jae Ho 한국무역상무학회 2008 貿易商務硏究 Vol.40 No.-

This study introduces the adoption of the logistics industry by the Korean government as a threshold of overcoming economic difficulties. The core contents of the National Logistics Plans (2001-2020) which contain the basic principles of the logistics policies of the Korean government and its aim to be an 'Excellent Nation of Logistics' is introduced. The economic effect of the logistics policies implemented between 2001 and 2005, (the period of the first medium-term Logistics plan according to the National Logistics Plans (2001-2020) set up by the Korean government at the end of 2000) is estimated through input-output analysis. The input-output analysis result is as follows: the total output effect is 8,856 billion won of which indirect output effect is 3,982.9 billion won; indirect output effect comes mainly from real estate and business services, non-metal products, metal products, electrical and electronics products, non-metal products, metal products, electrical and electronics products, finance and insurance, wholesale and retail, petroleum and coal; the total amount of value-added effect is 3,376 billion won and total import effect is 726 billion won. Employment effect including self-emploted and unpaid family supporters with paid laborers is 79,203.7 people of which paid laborerscomprise 67,547.7 people.

투입산출 분석을 통한 한국 물류산업의 투입구조와 생산유발효과 변화추이 연구

정도영,박재운 국회입법조사처 2010 입법과 정책 Vol.2 No.1

The objective of this study is to analyze the structural change of input and production-induced effects in the Korean Logistics industry by using Input- Output Analysis. The result of analysis can be summarized as follows. First of all, the ratio of the domestic intermediate input and material input of Logistics industry is gradually decreasing year by year. Especially, the ratio of import intermediate input is increasing. Second, the ratio of indirect intermediate input is much more than direct intermediate. The ratio of the indirect intermediate input from manufacturing sector is increasing, too. Third, the most part of the production-induced effects in Korean Logistics industry are attributed to export demand. Fourth, the coefficient of production-induced is gradually decreasing year by year since 1985. 본 연구는 한국 물류산업의 투입구조 및 생산유발효과의 변화추이를 분석한 것이다. 분석결과는 첫째, 물류산업에서는 국산중간투입재 및 물적투입 비중이 낮아지고 있다. 특히 수입중간재의 투입비중이 확대되었다. 둘째, 직접중간투입액의 비중보다 간접중간투입액의 비중이 높다. 이 중 제조업으로부터의 간접투입액의 비중이 확대되고 있다. 셋째, 물류산업에 있어서의 생산유발은 상당부분 수출수요에 의해 유발되고 있으며 생산유발액은 1985년 이래로 증가하고 있다. 넷째, 생산유발계수는 1995년을 정점으로 추세적으로 낮아지고 있는데 이는 수입중간재 투입비중의 상승에 기인하는 것이다.

산업연관표를 활용한 물류산업의경제적 파급효과 변화분석

김도훈,우엔,하헌구 한국물류과학기술학회 2023 물류과학기술연구 Vol.4 No.2

In this study, the logistics industry, which is gradually increasing in scale, is analyzed using input-output analysis as one of the leading industries driving the development of the national economy. Each transportation service in the input-output table is classified into passenger and freight sectors based on production values, and the Input-Output table is restructured into 20 industries. The analysis covers a period from 2000 to 2019, utilizing five-year interval Input-Output tables over approximately 20 years. The study presents the analysis results on the production-induced effects, value-added effects, forward linkage effects, backward linkage effects, and supply constraints of the logistics industry. This study observed that the production-induced and value-added effects of railway freight transportation services decreased over time while those of parcel services increased. The logistics industry exhibited lower forward linkage effects compared to backward linkage effects. Based on these analytical results, the study provides a foundation for future planning for each logistics industry and offers insights into the development of the logistics industry.