이변량 가뭄빈도해석을 위한 Bayesian Copula 모델 개발

김진영,김진국,조영현,권현한,Kim, Jin-Young,Kim, Jin-Guk,Cho, Young-Hyun,Kwon, Hyun-Han 한국수자원학회 2017 한국수자원학회논문집 Vol.50 No.11

Copula 함수 기반의 모형들은 가뭄빈도해석 및 수문시계열분석 등 수문학적 모델링을 위해 다각적으로 활용되고 있다. 그러나 기존 연구에서는 Copula 함수 및 주변확률분포 매개변수에 대한 불확실성을 정량적으로 평가할 수 있는 모형의 개발 사례는 국내외적으로 미진한 실정이다. 이러한 점에서 본 연구에서는 기존 Copula 모형에 Bayesian 기법을 도입하여 매개변수의 불확실성을 평가할 수 있는 이변량 가뭄빈도해석 기법을 개발하였다. 본 연구에서는 우선적으로 모의자료를 대상으로 모형의 적합성을 평가하였으며, 모형 적용결과 가정한 매개변수를 정확하게 재추정하는 것을 확인할 수 있다. 최종적으로 기 개발된 Bayesian Copula 함수 기반의 이변량 가뭄빈도해석 모형을 한강유역에 적용하여 최근 2013~2015년에 가뭄 사상을 평가하였다. 서울, 경기 및 강원 지역에서 특히 가뭄이 심한 것으로 나타났으며, 대부분의 지역에서 결합재현기간이 100년을 상회하는 것으로 평가되었다. 본 연구를 통해 제안된 모형의 검증과정과 도출된 결과를 기준으로 판단해보면 가뭄자료의 분포특성 및 자료간의 상관성을 효과적으로 재현하는데 유리할 뿐만 아니라 매개변수의 불확실성을 평가할 수 있는 장점을 확인할 수 있었다. The copula-based models have been successfully applied to hydrological modeling including drought frequency analysis and time series modeling. However, uncertainty estimation associated with the parameters of these model is not often properly addressed. In these context, the main purposes of this study are to develop the Bayesian inference scheme for bivariate copula functions. The main applications considered are two-fold: First, this study developed and tested an approach to copula model parameter estimation within a Bayesian framework for drought frequency analysis. The proposed modeling scheme was shown to correctly estimate model parameters and detect the underlying dependence structure of the assumed copula functions in the synthetic dataset. The model was then used to estimate the joint return period of the recent 2013~2015 drought events in the Han River watershed. The joint return period of the drought duration and drought severity was above 100 years for many of stations. The results obtained in the validation process showed that the proposed model could effectively reproduce the underlying distribution of observed extreme rainfalls as well as explicitly account for parameter uncertainty in the bivariate drought frequency analysis.

의료업종의 작업위험요인에 대한 실태조사 결과

김진영,김영미,김대성,임흥재,김중호,강성규,Kim, Jin-Young,Kim, Yeong-Mee,Kim, Day-Sung,Im, Heung-Jae,Kim, Jeung-Ho,Kang, Seong-Kyu 대한인간공학회 2007 大韓人間工學會誌 Vol.26 No.3

The purposes of this research are to survey work-related risk factors of musculoskeletal disorders(MSDs) in various departments and tasks at general hospitals in non-manufacturing sectors, and to use basic data derived from the survey results in preventing work-related MSDs in hospital workers. Investigation started in March of 2006 and continued for 6 months in 220 general hospitals at Seoul, Incheon, Kyeongi, and Kangwon area. Investigators visited and interviewed workers in hospitals to identify the presence of tasks of musculoskeletal burden, the investigation results of ergonomic risk factors required by the Occupational Safety and Health Law, statistical analysis from questionnaire for musculoskeletal symptoms, and major departments and tasks that have such risk factors. Twenty-seven percents of hospitals finished the investigation of ergonomic risk factors, and 69% did not do the investigation while remained 4% did not have such factors in their hospitals. The rank order of major departments that had such musculoskeletal burdens was kitchen rooms of 143, managing departments/computer rooms/dispensaries of 137, physical treatment rooms of 109, nursing departments of 96, radiological and clinical laboratories of 63. Eighteen hospitals that did not hold legal duties by the section 148 of labor minister decree practiced prevention programs of MSDs according to the labor-management cooperation. Nursing departments ranked in the first place for the numbers of musculoskeletal symptoms of 438. Managing departments/computer rooms/dispensaries, kitchen rooms, and medical treatment departments held 127, 52 and 45 symptoms, respectively. The magnitude order of physical symptom areas followed shoulder of 185, backs and waist of 166, hand wrists of 120, necks of 110, and legs/feet of 106. The departments and jobs that had major work-related ergonomic risks were patient transporting, central supplying, patient nursing (moving patients into wheel-chairs, changing of patient posture and sheet alteration), manual transporting, operation, and managing/computer departments.

젊은 여성의 수지에 발생한 평활근종: 증례 보고

김진영,권오진,노지현,Kim, Jin Young,Kwon, Oh Jin,No, Ji Hyun 대한근골격종양학회 2013 대한골관절종양학회지 Vol.19 No.1

평활근종은 평활근에서 기원하여 서서히 진행하는 양성, 고립성의 종양이다. 발생 장소는 평활근을 포함하는 자궁, 식도, 하지, 소화관 기질, 흉막 등이며, 수부를 포함한 상지에서 발생하는 경우는 매우 드문 것으로 알려져 있다. 본 증례에서는 저자들이 경험한 젊은 여성의 우측 제 4 수지에서 발생한 고형성 평활근종 1예를 보고하고자 한다. Leiomyoma is a benign solitary tumor which is originated from a smooth muscle cell and grows slowly. It is most commonly found in the uterus and can develop anywhere that smooth muscle is present, including esophagus, lower extremity, stroma of GI tract, and pleura. However, the occurrence of leiomyoma in the hand is so uncommon. We present one case of solid type leiomyoma found in the right $4^{th}$ finger of a young woman.

세립분 함유량 및 투기고에 따른 준설토의 자중압밀 특성

김진영,김혜린,장정민,이성열,정운기,진영식,정효진,백원진,강권수,고남영,Kim, Jin-Young,Kim, Hye-Rin,Jang, Jung-Min,Lee, Sung-Yeol,Jeong, Wun-Gie,Jin, Young-Sik,Jeong, Hyo-Jin,Baek, Won-Jin,Kang, Kwon-Soo,Goh, Nam-Young 한국농공학회 2016 한국농공학회논문집 Vol.58 No.6

In this paper, analyzes the characteristics of self-weight consolidation on the dredged clay according to the fines content and falling height. Research was performed with the dredged clay sampled by Sae-mangeum field site. Classification of fines content was performed by sieve analysis test. After adjusting the fine content, self-weight consolidation tests were carried out focussing on the variation of fines content and falling heights. From the test results of the self-weight consolidation test, samples with high fines content had reached sedimentation completion more later than ones with less fine content samples. In other words, the start of self-weight consolidation was slowing down with increasing of fines content. Also, from the test results of calculating the coefficient of sedimentation consolidation, the coefficient value were increased with the fines content increases. In addition, the change of sedimentation ratio and volume ratio showed more higher changed value as the fine content increases. Thus, it is important to consider the fines content when estimate the settlement time of dredged soil in field dredge work.

GC/MS를 이용한 모발 중 메스암페타민 및 암페타민 분석의 측정불확도 평가

김진영,김종상,김민경,이재일,서용준,인문교,Kim, Jin-Young,Kim, Jong-Sang,Kim, Min-Kyoung,Lee, Jae-Il,Suh, Yong-Jun,In, Moon-kyo 대한약학회 2007 약학회지 Vol.51 No.3

Recently estimating the uncertainty of an analytical result has become an essential part of quantitative analysis. This study describes the uncertainty of the measurement for the determination of methamphetamine and its major metabolite amphetamine in human hair, The method consists of washing, drying, weighing, incubation and extraction with methanolic HCI solution, clean-up, trifluoroacetyl derivatization, and qualification/quantification of residues by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). Traceability of measurement was established through traceable standards and calibrated volumetric equipment and measuring instruments. Measurement uncertainty associated with each analyte in real samples was estimated using quality control (QC) data. The main source of combined standard uncertainty comprised two components, which are uncertainties associated with calibration linearity and variations in QC, while those associated with preparation of analytical standards and sample weighing were not so important considering the degree of contribution. Relative combined standard uncertainties associated with the described method ranged for individual analytes from 4.99 to5.03%.

Bayesian 기반 Multi-Segmented 곡선식을 활용한 수위-유량 곡선의 불확실성 분석

김진영,김진국,이재철,권현한,Kim, Jin-Young,Kim, Jin-Guk,Lee, Jae Chul,Kwon, Hyun-Han 한국수자원학회 2016 한국수자원학회논문집 Vol.49 No.3

수위-유량 관계곡선(rating curve)은 수위표에서 관측된 수위 및 유량을 이용하여 만들어진 회귀분석식을 의미하며, 하천의 수위를 유량으로 환산하는 방법으로 일반적으로 활용되고 있다. 그러나 수위-유량 관계곡선식에서 저수위와 고수위와 분리 및 매개변수 추정에 있어 불확실성을 고려한 해석은 이루어지지 않고 있다. 이러한 이유로 본 연구에서는 수위-유량 관계곡선식에서 매개변수 추정 및 저 고수위 분리시 발생하는 문제점을 개선하기 위해 Bayesian 기법을 도입하였으며, 수위-유량 관계곡선식의 매개변수의 추정과 더불어 불확실성을 정량화 하는데 목적을 두었다. 이와 더불어 Bayesian 모형 기반 Multi-Segmented 수위-유량 관계곡선(Bayesian M-S)을 활용하여 저 고수위를 분리할 수 있는 새로운 수위-유량 관계곡선을 개발하고 기존 수위-유량 관계곡선과 비교 분석을 실시하였다. 그 결과 본 연구에서 개발한 Bayesian M-S 기법이 기존 수위-유량 관계곡선식 보다 개선된 결과를 도출할 수 있었으며, 수위-유량 관계곡선식의 신뢰구간을 제시하는데 유리한 것을 확인할 수 있었다. A Rating curve is a regression equation of discharge versus stage for a given point on a stream where the stream discharge is measured across the stream channel with a stage and discharge measurement. The curve is generally used to calculate discharge based on the stage. However, the existing approach showed problems in terms of estimating uncertainty associated with regression parameters including the separation parameter for low and high flow. In this regard, this study aimed to develop a new method for the aforementioned problems based on Bayesian approach, which can better estimate the parameter and its uncertainty. In addition, this study used a Bayesian Multi-Segmented (Bayesian M-S) model which is provided a comparison between the existing and proposed scheme. The proposed model showed better results for the parameter estimation than the existing approach, and provided better performance in terms of estimating uncertainty range.

조선전기의 여계문학(女戒文學)과 충암 김정 부인의 절행(節行)

김진영(Kim, Jin-young) 충남대학교 충청문화연구소 2016 충청문화연구 Vol.17 No.-

This thesis is studied about Kim-jeong’s wife, Song’s dying in defense of her chastity and its meaning. First, women’s enlightenment and their literature during the early days of the Joseon Dynasty are examined, and reviewed Mrs song"s background of dying in defense of her chastity and remaining faithful to her husband. Then the meaning of Mrs song"s dying in defense of her chastity is considered synthetically. So far, discussed things are summarized as follows First, it is examined women’s enlightenment and their literature during the early days of the Joseon Dynasty. In the early of the Joseon Dynasty, the rulers that believed in Confucianism strengthened governmental management philosophy with new ideology. So the order of confucian and order of men and women are strengthened newly. So this the woman"s economic rights are much intimidated, and wearing thin remarriage. Woman are recognized not a person of the protection but the object of the ownership, and that is educated very hard. Second, it is considered Mrs song"s background of dying in defense of her chastity and its fact. Mrs song was very different from others in that day. She grew a man of high repute home, and got married a great house. Besides her husband made his entrance into office, so was required to behavior of that image. Because the noble family that both her parents" home and her husband"s home are seek ideology of Neo-Confucianism, and her husband is a politician who puts stress on just and great cause, justify of serving but a single husband is strengtened. Mrs song"s dying in defense of her chastity is summarized growth and development, dying in defense of her chastity and result. That is the birth of noble family, having a good manners with a confucian education, her husband"s dying for great cause and her dying in defense of her chastity. Third, it is considered about a meaning of Mrs song"s behavior. Mrs song"s behavior deeply affected and handed down domestically and socially. First, Mrs song"s dying in defense of her chastity is taken the lead national ethics as a woman of the gentry. And Mrs song"s dying in defense of her chastity is improved an honor to her family. Especially she made her husband to a loyalist, and made herself a virtuous woman, so raised the family"s honor. And then Mrs song"s dying in defense of her chastity is reported a historical literature, so it became an example to woman of the gentry or her family. It is entirely possible that Mrs song"s dying in defense of her chastity is quite similar to women’s enlightenment literature of those days.

Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cyclaminis에 의한 시클라멘 시들음병 발생 및 저항성 품종 선발

김진영,김홍기,홍순성,김진원,박경열,Kim, Jin-Young,Kim, Hong-Gi,Hong, Sun-Sung,Kim, Jin-Won,Park, Kyeong-Yeol 한국식물병리학회 2003 식물병연구 Vol.9 No.2

2001년 8월에서 2002년 7월까지 경기도내 주요 시설하우스 재배지에서 시클라멘 시들음병 발생을 조사한 결과 전지역에서 발생이 확인되었으며, 김포에서는 발병주율이 42.7%까지 되었다. 시들음병 발생은 관행적인 지상관수방법보다 저면관수에서 발생이 더 심하였다. 발병된 시클라멘 잎은 황화되고 병이 진전되면 고사하였으며 구근에서는 갈변 증상이 관찰되었다. 갈변된 구근 조직에서 병원균을 분리하여 fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cyclaminis로 동정하였다. 발병지 상토를 수거하여 시클라멘을 이식했을 때 100% 발병하였다. 저항성 품종 선발에서는 'Matis red', 'Schubert', 'Victoria', 'Chopin'의 4품종만이 저항성 품종으로 검정 되었을 뿐 대부분의 품종이 감수성이었다. 시들음병 방제약제 선발 결과 방제 효과는 비교적 낮았으나 병원균 접종 전 약제처리시 베노밀 수화제와 후루 디옥소닐 액상수화제의예방 효과가 인정되었다. 그리고 병을 Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cyclaminis에 의한 시클라멘 시들음병으로 명명할 것을 제안한다. A wilt disease of commercial cyclamen (Cyclamen persicum) which grown in greenhouse was found in Gyeo-nggi province of Korea during the period from August, 2001 to July, 2002. The disease incidence was up to 42.7% in Kimpo, Gyeonggi province. The disease was more severe in ebb and flow irrigation system than con-ventional overhead flooding\'s. The wilted cyclamen plants showed the chlorosis of leaves and followed by the death. The vascular tissues of the infected basal stem and bulb were discolored with black streaks. The casual fungus was identified to be Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cyclaminis on the basis of mycological characteristics. Effect of infected soil showed 100% infection rate when the cyclamen plants were grown in potting with infested soil. Examine resistant cultivar showed ‘Matis red’, ‘Schubert’, ‘Victoria’ and ‘Chopin’ were the resistant cultivars but most of cultivars were susceptible to Fusarium wilt. The control effect of chemicals for cyclamen wilt was not much efficient to curative effects even though. Benomyl WP and Fludioxonil SC on the Fusarium wilt had only preventive effects by soil drenching in the pot before inoculation of F. oxysporum. This is the first report on the fusarium wilt of cyclamen caused by F. oxysporum f. sp. cyclaminis in Korea.

고전소설 작가의 익명성과 향유층의 문예적 대응

김진영(Kim, Jin­young) 한국언어문학회 2017 한국언어문학 Vol.100 No.-

This thesis studied about the anonymity of Korean classic novel writer and literary respondence of consumers. The cause of anonymity is looked shortly, and its actual condition is examined. Based on this, literary respondence due to anonymity is examined. In conclusion, it is as in the following.First, a cause of anonymity is studied. There are few eminent author’s work in Korean. Because majority of the works were distributed by an anonymous author. The reason for this can be found in caste system and the neo­Confucian. First, fallen aristocrats played an active part as a writer. However, the fact that the aristocrats wrote novels could not be revealed. Likewise, lower class were also unable to reveal the fact that they wrote a social criticism novel. Due to neo­Confucian, novels were treated as a menial thing so there were many an anonymous authors. On the aspect of history and morality, novels were target of eradication. Secondly, real condition of anonymity is studied. Most of the Korean novels were distributed by anonymous writers. These anonymous writings were first embodied by the intellectual class. Such writers are as in the following. To begin with, there are highbrow of a lower writers class and illiterate class. The highbrow took charge of recording tales. The illiterate class played a part in refining literature of oral tradition into documentary literature. Nextly, there are the two types of aristocrats, proletariat and bourgeoisie. The proletariat were a fallen man, professional writer for a living. The bourgeoisie worked as a writer for promoting literature desire. Third, a literary response of anonymity is studied. Only works without writer were distributed, so Korean novel had no copyright. So the consumers treated Korean novel as not as an individual work but as a cooperated works. Furthermore, a consumer could adapt a novel following one’s taste. People adapted a novel following the ideology of the community. The novel can be used as a tool for enhancing ideology of the community. Throughout the Joseon Dynasty, the neo­Confucian was forced to everyone, so that was a main subject of the novels. On the other hand, there was also a democratic awareness against the vested interests in the novels. The lower class embodied the novel while sharing the ideology.

유한요소법을 이용한 나이티놀 와이어 스텐트의 전산모사 실험 데이터 검증

김진영,정원균,전동민,신일균,김한기,신동오,김상호,서태석,Kim, Jin-Young,Jung, Won-Gyun,Jeon, Dong-Min,Shin, Il-Gyun,Kim, Han-Ki,Shin, Dong-Oh,Kim, Sang-Ho,Suh, Tae-Suk 한국의학물리학회 2009 의학물리 Vol.20 No.3

최근 스텐트 시술의 수학적인 분석은 스텐트의 위치와 기계적인 반응을 측정하는 여러 가지 툴이 개발됨에 따라 발전하고 있다. 그러나 기존의 연구의 경우, 전산모사 실험을 통해 여러 요소에 따른 변형 정도 및 응력 분포, 팽창력 등과 같은 성능평가에 대한 연구가 주류를 이루며 전산모사 실험을 통한 응력 분포 및 변형 정도에 대한 소프트웨어의 검증은 거의 없는 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 만능재료 시험기를 이용한 실험을 통해 얻은 결과와 전산모사 실험 결과의 유의성 검증을 통해 해당 전산 모사용 소프트웨어를 통한 전산모사 실험 결과에 신뢰성을 부여하였다. 또한 이를 토대로 전산모사 실험을 통해 스텐트 피막 유무에 따른 스텐트의 응력분포를 분석하고자 하였다. 본 연구에서는 전산모사 실험 데이터와 실제 인장 시험 데이터를 통한 유의성 검증을 하고자 하였다. 스텐트의 연결 부분에 대해 유한요소 해석법을 적용하여 전산모사 실험을 수행한 결과, 178.93 MPa의 최대응력으로 인장시험 결과인 184.23 MPa와 거의 유사한 값을 가졌으며, 이를 통해 인장시험 결과와 전산모사 결과가 유의성을 가짐을 검증할 수 있었다. 또한 피막 유무에 따른 스텐트의 전산모사 실험을 통해 피막에서는 접촉부, 나이티놀에서는 연결부에서 최대 응력이 발생함을 알 수 있었다. 그리고 피막이 있는 경우에는 피막의 장력으로 인해 연결부분에서 형상을 유지하고 있으나 피막이 없는 경우에는 이격 및 교차부에서 슬립이 발생함을 알 수 있었다. 이러한 결과들을 통해 스텐트 설계 초기에 있어 해당 전산모사용 소프트웨어를 통해 해석을 수행하여 그에 따른 해석 결과를 설계에 반영함으로써 설계 변경을 최소화할 수 있고, 이에 따라 양질의 설계 품질 확보가 가능할 것으로 사료된다. Recently, the mathematical analysis of stent simulation has been improved, with the help of development of various tool which measure mechanical property and location of stent in artery. The most crucial part of the stent modeling is how to design ideal stent and to evaluate the interaction between stent and artery. While there has been great deal of researches on the evaluation of the expansion, stress distribution, deformation of the stent in terms of the various parameters, few verification through computer simulation has been performed about deformation and stress distribution of the stent. In this study, we have produced the corresponding results between experimental test using Universal Testing Machine and computer simulation for the ideal model of stent. Also, we have analyzed and compared stress distribution of stent in the cases of that with membrane and that without membrane. The results of this study would provide minimum change of plan and good quality for ideal stent replacing damaged artery through the analysis using computer simulation in the early stage of stent design.