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        • A Multi-Agent Simulation for the Electricity Spot Market

          Hyungna,Oh 한국지능정보시스템학회 2003 한국지능정보시스템학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.- No.-

          A multi-agent system designed to represent newly deregulated electricity markets in the USA is aimed at testing the capability of the multi-agent model to replicate the observed price behavior in the wholesale market and developing a smart business intelligence which quickly change in market environments. Simulation results show that the optimum offer strategy is to withhole expensive generating units and submit relatively low offers when demand is low, regardless of firm size; the optimum offer strategy during a period of high demand is either to withhold capacity or speculate for a large firm, while it is to be a price taker for a small firm; all in all, the offer pattern observed in the market is close to the optimum strategy. From the firm's perspective, the demand-side participation as well as the intense competition dramatically reduces the chance of high excess profit.

        • Citizens' Distrust in Government and Project Implementation in the Public Sector

          ( Hyungna Oh ), ( Jong Ho Hong ) 한국환경경제학회, 한국자원경제학회 ( 구 한국환경경제학회 ) 2014 한국환경경제학회 학술발표논문집 Vol.2014 No.하계

          Using survey data, this paper shows that citizens' subjective trust in either government itself or its capacity to complete an announced goal can largely influence their willingness-to-pay for a public project administered by the government. Given that distrust toward government prevails in most advanced economies, this outcome raises concerns that distrust can be a plague in implementing public projects administered by the government.

        • Optimal Regulation for Production with Multiple Externalities

          ( Hyungna Oh ), ( Jaeuk Ju ) 한국환경경제학회, 한국자원경제학회 ( 구 한국환경경제학회 ) 2015 한국환경경제학회 학술발표논문집 Vol.2015 No.하계

          Since many individual production activities release more than one pollutants, policy outcomes of one regulation often complement or contradict those of another regulation. Considering this, an integrated approach to dealing with multiple negative externalities was developed. However, in practice regulating pollutants at a time (i.e., an Ala Carte regulation-approach) rather than an integrated approach is a common regulatory model and, as a result, the inefficiency of regulation arises. The inefficiency even increases as individual environmental policy is implemented with uncoordinated agenda. This paper employs a dynamic game model and explores the issue of optimal regulation for multiple production externalities. In the model, corrective tax rates for two externalities represent the level of regulation. According to findings of our analytical model, regulation level under a comprehensive approach, which simultaneously determines tax rates in year 1, is consistent with Pigouvian rate. Meanwhile, regulation level under an non-integrated approach, which introduce two regulations sequentially, one in year 1 and the other in year 2, deviates from the optimal level: the earlier regulation in year 1 is higher and the latter one in year 2 is lower than those of a comprehensive one. To avoid distortions associated with the sub-optimal level of regulation, our model discourages a use of excessive forward-looking when the level of regulation is made sequentially.

        • Optimal Regulation for Production with Multiple Externalities

          오형나(Hyungna Oh), 주재욱(Jaeuk Ju) 한국재정학회 2016 한국재정학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2016 No.-

          '스콜라' 이용 시 소속기관이 구독 중이 아닌 경우, 오후 4시부터 익일 오전 7시까지 원문보기가 가능합니다.

          Since many individual production activities release more than one pollutants, policy outcomes of one regulation often complement or contradict those of another regulation. Considering this, anintegrated approach to dealing with multiple negative externalities was developed. In practice, however, regulating pollutants separately at a time rather than anintegrated approach is a common regulatory model and, as a result, the inefficiency of regulation arises. The inefficiency even increases as individual environmental policy is implemented with uncoordinated agenda. This paper employs a game theoretic model and explores the issue of optimal regulation for multiple production externalities. In the model, corrective tax rates for two externalities represent the level of regulation. According to findings of our analytical model, regulation level under a comprehensive approach, which simultaneously determines tax rates in year 1, is consistent with Pigouvian rate. Meanwhile, regulation level under a separate approach, which introduce two regulations sequentially, one in the first year and the other in the second year, deviates from the optimal level: the earlier regulation in the first year is higher and the latter one in the second year is lower than that of a comprehensive one. To avoid distortions associated with the sub-optimal level of regulation, our model discourages a use of excessive forward-looking when the level of regulation is made sequentially.

        • KCI등재

          연구논문 : 제조업과 서비스 부문 기후 리스크 측정

          오형나 ( Hyungna Oh ) 한국환경경제학회·한국자원경제학회(구 한국환경경제학회) 2015 자원·환경경제연구 Vol.24 No.3

          지구 온난화와 그에 따라 발생빈도가 늘어난 이상기온 현상으로 인해 제조업과 서비스 업종에서 감당해야 할 기후위험 역시 증가하는 추세에 있다. 본 연구는 Pardo et al. (2002)이 이용한 간단한 실증모델 추정을 통해 품목별 기후리스크를 측정한다. 실증분석의 결과, 제조업 품목의 26.7%, 서비스 업종의 27.9%가 날씨여건에 따라 판매량이나 경영성과에 유의미한 변화를 경험하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. Given the presence of global warming, the economic impact of climate changes on output sales has been discussed in the literature, but rarely with empirical evidences. In this present study, a simple log-model was employed to identify the economic impacts of weather changes in manufacturing and service sectors in Korea. For this empirical exercise, weather variables including the CDD (cooling degree days) and HDD (heating degree days) were computed using the Korea``s meteorological records covering the period 1970-2012. According to estimation results, 26.7% (144 over 539) and 27.9% (64 over 229) of the manufacturing and service sectors, respectively, are found to be weather-sensitive.

        • KCI등재

          지불거부응답의 판별

          오형나,OH,,Hyungna 한국개발연구원 2012 韓國 開發 硏究 Vol.34 No.1

          조건부가치측정법(contingent valuation method)은 비시장재의 경제적 가치를 추정하는 방법의 하나로, 공공사업의 경제적 편익을 계산하는 데 이용되어 왔다. 지불거부응답(protest responses)은 본인의 선호와 상관없이 설문과정에서 공공사업에 대해 단 1원도 지불할 의사가 없다고 응답하는 행동으로, 전체 CVM 응답의 25% 정도를 차지한다. 본 연구는 평가 대상이 된 공공재의 가치 추정에 있어 지불거부응답 행동에 의한 편의(bias)를 최소화하기 위해, 자신의 선호에 의해 지불의사액이 '0'이라고 답한 응답으로부터 지불거부응답을 판별해 내는 문항(protest response filtering items)과 그 미시적 근거를 제시한다. 이를 위해 본 논문은 선호에 기반한 지불의사액을 '잠재적 지불의사액(implicit willingness-to-pay)'이라고 정의함으로써 설문과정에서 선호체계 이외에 다양한 요인이 작용하여 결정된 '구술된 지불의사액(stated willingness-to-pay)'과 구분하였다. 한편, 한국개발연구원(KDI)에서 주관한 20여 건의 CVM 데이터를 이용한 실증분석 결과에 의하면, 지불거부응답은 무작위가 아닌 응답자의 사회 경제적 특징에 의해 체계적으로 발생한다. 이는 지불거부응답을 공공재의 경제적 가치 추정에서 제외시킬 때 선택편의(selectivity bias)가 발생할 수 있음을 의미한다. This study analyzes ways to detect protest responses (hereafter, PR zero-bid) in the contingent valuation method (CVM). In order to distinguish PR zero-bids from true zero-bids (non-PR zero bids), this study adopts the concept of the implicit willingness to pay employing the Hicksian compensating surplus and the Taylor's 1st order approximation. When a respondent proposes a zero-bid (i.e., WTP=0) and chooses a PR filtering item to indicate that her implicit WTP is not necessary zero, her response is identified as a PR zero bid. PR filtering items falling into the PR zero bids category include the uncertainty of information, distrust in the government and project achievement, disagreement to project plans, discontent with the fairness of public works and their payment method and animosity against the CVM itself. The empirical analysis shows that PR zero bids take place systematically in particular respondent groups: respondents who have never used similar facilities before nor plans to use the facility provided by the public project, the employed, and low income groups. In conclusion, the study suggests that a CVM questionnaire needs to be designed carefully to minimize problems associated with PR zero bids and the potential risks of having sample selection bias should be concerned.

        • KCI등재

          EU-ETS 배출권가격 결정요인 분석: 과잉할당량을 중심으로

          홍이슬 ( Leesle Hong ), 오형나 ( Hyungna Oh ), 홍종호 ( Jong Ho Hong ) 한국경제학회 2016 經濟學硏究 Vol.64 No.3

          본 연구에서는 대표적 탄소시장인 유럽 배출권시장에서 가격하락요인으로 지목되어 온 배출권 과잉할당을 포함하여 배출권가격 결정요인을 분석하였다. 유럽배출권가격 결정요인에 관한 연구 중 과잉할당량을 계량분석 모형에 포함한 사례는 아직까지 없었다. 본 연구는 과잉할당량이 배출권가격에 미치는 영향에 대한실증분석 필요성을 바탕으로 거래제 단계 내 차입효과 모의변수와 함께 과잉할당량을 직접 계산하여 설명변수에 포함하였다. 과잉할당량은 문헌에서 논의된 방식에 따라 기준시나리오를 산정한 후 이를 실제 할당량과 비교하여 계산하였다. 분석 결과, 본 연구의 주요 변수인 과잉할당량과 주가지수, 전력스프레드, 주가지수와 전력스프레드의 상호작용항, 유가, 극한 기온이 유의한 수준의 영향을 미치는것으로 나타났다. Although the ``over-allocation`` of allowances in EU-ETS has been noted as a major cause of carbon price crash in phase I, few studies have analyzed quantitatively the issue of over-allocation in the formation of carbon prices. In this study, we employ new variables such as over-allocation and intra-phase borrowing in our regression model along with other price determinants. Based on the literature, the amount of over-allocation was calculated by comparing the cap to Business-as-Usual emissions. The over-allocation, stock price index, clean dark/spark spread, the interaction term of stock price index and clean dark/spark spread, oil price, and extreme weathers are found to be statistically significant.

        • SSCISCOPUSKCI등재

          Cross-Border Spillover Effect of Particulate Matter Pollution between China and Korea

          ( Hyemin Park ), ( Wonhyuk Lim ), ( Hyungna Oh ) 한국경제학회 2020 The Korean Economic Review Vol.36 No.1

          Given its adverse health effects, particulate matter (PM) pollution has become a critical public policy issue in Northeast Asia. As concerns about PM pollution increase, so does the interest in identifying its origins, including transboundary pollutant sources. Employing the daily average PM10 concentration level data from Beijing, Shanghai, and Seoul in 2014- 2016, we estimate the direction and extent of the spillover effect of the PM10 density between China and Korea. Estimation outcomes suggest that the PM10 density levels in Beijing and Shanghai are Granger causes of the PM density in Seoul, but not vice versa. That is, the PM 10 density in Seoul increased by 0.13 and 0.133 ppm in response to the 1 ppm increase in the PM10 density in Beijing and Shanghai on the previous day, respectively. The cross-border spillover effect from Beijing decreased by 0.076 ppm from May to October when the air flow hindered the PM10 sources generated in Beijing from reaching Seoul.

        • KCI등재

          Why Are Peak Loads Observed during Winter Months in Korea?

          KIM,,JEE,YOUNG,OH,,HYUNGNA,CHOI,,KYUNG-MEE Korea Development Institute 2019 KDI 政策硏究 Vol.41 No.1

          Since 2009, electricity consumption has developed a unique seasonal pattern in South Korea. Winter loads have sharply increased, and they eventually exceeded summer peaks. This trend reversal distinguishes these load patterns from those in the USA and the EU, where annual peaks are observed during the summer months. Using Levene's test, we show statistical evidence of a rise in temperature but a decrease in variance over time regardless of the season. Despite the overall increase in the temperature, regardless of the season there should be another cause of the increased demand for electricity in winter. With the present study using data from 1991 to 2012, we provide empirical evidence that relatively low electricity prices regulated by the government have contributed significantly to the rapid upward change in electricity consumption, specifically during the winter months in the commercial sector in Korea.

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