A Multi-Agent Simulation for the Electricity Spot Market

Hyungna Oh 한국지능정보시스템학회 2003 한국지능정보시스템학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.- No.-

A multi-agent system designed to represent newly deregulated electricity markets in the USA is aimed at testing the capability of the multi-agent model to replicate the observed price behavior in the wholesale market and developing a smart business intelligence which quickly change in market environments. Simulation results show that the optimum offer strategy is to withhole expensive generating units and submit relatively low offers when demand is low, regardless of firm size; the optimum offer strategy during a period of high demand is either to withhold capacity or speculate for a large firm, while it is to be a price taker for a small firm; all in all, the offer pattern observed in the market is close to the optimum strategy. From the firm's perspective, the demand-side participation as well as the intense competition dramatically reduces the chance of high excess profit.

Optimal Regulation for Production with Multiple Externalities

( Hyungna Oh ),( Jaeuk Ju ) 한국환경경제학회, 한국자원경제학회 ( 구 한국환경경제학회 ) 2015 한국환경경제학회 학술발표논문집 Vol.2015 No.하계

Since many individual production activities release more than one pollutants, policy outcomes of one regulation often complement or contradict those of another regulation. Considering this, an integrated approach to dealing with multiple negative externalities was developed. However, in practice regulating pollutants at a time (i.e., an Ala Carte regulation-approach) rather than an integrated approach is a common regulatory model and, as a result, the inefficiency of regulation arises. The inefficiency even increases as individual environmental policy is implemented with uncoordinated agenda. This paper employs a dynamic game model and explores the issue of optimal regulation for multiple production externalities. In the model, corrective tax rates for two externalities represent the level of regulation. According to findings of our analytical model, regulation level under a comprehensive approach, which simultaneously determines tax rates in year 1, is consistent with Pigouvian rate. Meanwhile, regulation level under an non-integrated approach, which introduce two regulations sequentially, one in year 1 and the other in year 2, deviates from the optimal level: the earlier regulation in year 1 is higher and the latter one in year 2 is lower than those of a comprehensive one. To avoid distortions associated with the sub-optimal level of regulation, our model discourages a use of excessive forward-looking when the level of regulation is made sequentially.

Citizens’ Distrust in Government and Project Implementation in the Public Sector

( Hyungna Oh ),( Jong Ho Hong ) 한국환경경제학회, 한국자원경제학회 ( 구 한국환경경제학회 ) 2014 한국환경경제학회 학술발표논문집 Vol.2014 No.하계

Using survey data, this paper shows that citizens’ subjective trust in either government itself or its capacity to complete an announced goal can largely influence their willingness-to-pay for a public project administered by the government. Given that distrust toward government prevails in most advanced economies, this outcome raises concerns that distrust can be a plague in implementing public projects administered by the government.

저탄소 성장모델, 중진국 덫의 대안이 될 수 있는가?

오형나 ( Hyungna Oh ) 한국환경경제학회, 한국자원경제학회 ( 구 한국환경경제학회 ) 2013 한국환경경제학회 학술발표논문집 Vol.2013 No.하계

디지털 전환의 기후효과: 현황과 전망

오형나 ( Hyungna Oh ),홍종호 ( Jong Ho Hong ) 한국경제학회 2022 한국경제포럼 Vol.14 No.4

디지털 전환과 그린 전환이 메가 트랜드로 자리잡으면서 디지털 전환이 기후변화에 미치는 영향에 대한 관심이 커지고 있다. ICT 기술을 통해 에너지 수요를 대체하거나 효율적으로 사용함으로써 기후변화를 완화할 수 있을 것이라는 기대가 있는 반면, ICT 제품과 서비스가 제조, 사용 또는 폐기 과정에서 다량의 에너지, 특히 전기를 소비하며 그 결과 온실가스 배출과 e-폐기물량이 증가할 것이라는 우려 또한 존재한다. 이 논문은 2013-2019년 기업활동조사 와 에너지총조사 자료를 사용하여 한국의 제조업 부문을 중심으로 ICT 기술이 제조업 부문에서 전력을 포함한 에너지 소비와 온실가스 배출량에 어떤 영향을 미치는지에 대한 실증분석을 시도했다. 분석 결과 다른 조건이 동일한 경우 제조업 부문에서 ICT 기술이 활용된다면 전력 소비가 증가할 수 있지만 다른 에너지 소비가 줄어들면서 결과적으로는 총에너지 소비를 줄이는 긍정적 효과가 이미 나타나고 있다는 점을 발견했다. 그러나 ICT 활용으로 온실가스 배출량이 감소하지는 않는 것으로 분석되었는데, 이는 현재 전력의 탄소집약도가 전체 에너지의 탄소집약도 보다 높기 때문이다. 이러한 분석 결과는 발전 부문의 탈탄소화가 이루어지지 않은 가운데 디지털 전환이 추진된다면 디지털 전환은 그린 전환을 방해할 수 있다는 점을 시사한다. The digital transition has been transforming the nature of energy and resource use in the production process. Existing literature have presented different views on the digital transition’s impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Some have welcomed the wave of digitalization with the expectation that ICT technologies will contribute to climate mitigation by improving the efficiency of energy and resource use in the production sector. Others, on the contrary, have shown concern that the resulting surge in electricity consumption, water use and e-waste generation in digital sectors will do more bad than good in regards to GHG emissions. With the present study, we investigate how ICT technologies affect energy consumption and GHG emissions in the manufacturing sector. Two datasets, the Survey of Business Activities (2013-2019) and the National Energy Total Information System (2013-2019) are employed in the empirical exercise of this study. Estimation outcomes suggest that utilizing ICT technologies in the manufacturing sector will help reduce overall energy consumption and energy intensity, implying that the twin deals (Digital New Deal and Green New Deal) are complementary. However, this positive synergy effect of digitalization in green transformation was not found within electricity consumption, the dominant fuel of digital technologies, as its carbon intensity is higher than that of most other fuels. As a result, the digital transition will show an exigent need to green electricity production.

연구논문 : 제조업과 서비스 부문 기후 리스크 측정

오형나 ( Hyungna Oh ) 한국환경경제학회·한국자원경제학회(구 한국환경경제학회) 2015 자원·환경경제연구 Vol.24 No.3

지구 온난화와 그에 따라 발생빈도가 늘어난 이상기온 현상으로 인해 제조업과 서비스 업종에서 감당해야 할 기후위험 역시 증가하는 추세에 있다. 본 연구는 Pardo et al. (2002)이 이용한 간단한 실증모델 추정을 통해 품목별 기후리스크를 측정한다. 실증분석의 결과, 제조업 품목의 26.7%, 서비스 업종의 27.9%가 날씨여건에 따라 판매량이나 경영성과에 유의미한 변화를 경험하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. Given the presence of global warming, the economic impact of climate changes on output sales has been discussed in the literature, but rarely with empirical evidences. In this present study, a simple log-model was employed to identify the economic impacts of weather changes in manufacturing and service sectors in Korea. For this empirical exercise, weather variables including the CDD (cooling degree days) and HDD (heating degree days) were computed using the Korea``s meteorological records covering the period 1970-2012. According to estimation results, 26.7% (144 over 539) and 27.9% (64 over 229) of the manufacturing and service sectors, respectively, are found to be weather-sensitive.

Optimal Regulation for Production with Multiple Externalities

오형나(Hyungna Oh),주재욱(Jaeuk Ju) 한국재정학회 2016 한국재정학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2016 No.-

Since many individual production activities release more than one pollutants, policy outcomes of one regulation often complement or contradict those of another regulation. Considering this, anintegrated approach to dealing with multiple negative externalities was developed. In practice, however, regulating pollutants separately at a time rather than anintegrated approach is a common regulatory model and, as a result, the inefficiency of regulation arises. The inefficiency even increases as individual environmental policy is implemented with uncoordinated agenda. This paper employs a game theoretic model and explores the issue of optimal regulation for multiple production externalities. In the model, corrective tax rates for two externalities represent the level of regulation. According to findings of our analytical model, regulation level under a comprehensive approach, which simultaneously determines tax rates in year 1, is consistent with Pigouvian rate. Meanwhile, regulation level under a separate approach, which introduce two regulations sequentially, one in the first year and the other in the second year, deviates from the optimal level: the earlier regulation in the first year is higher and the latter one in the second year is lower than that of a comprehensive one. To avoid distortions associated with the sub-optimal level of regulation, our model discourages a use of excessive forward-looking when the level of regulation is made sequentially.

지불거부응답의 판별

오형나,OH, Hyungna 한국개발연구원 2012 韓國 開發 硏究 Vol.34 No.1

조건부가치측정법(contingent valuation method)은 비시장재의 경제적 가치를 추정하는 방법의 하나로, 공공사업의 경제적 편익을 계산하는 데 이용되어 왔다. 지불거부응답(protest responses)은 본인의 선호와 상관없이 설문과정에서 공공사업에 대해 단 1원도 지불할 의사가 없다고 응답하는 행동으로, 전체 CVM 응답의 25% 정도를 차지한다. 본 연구는 평가 대상이 된 공공재의 가치 추정에 있어 지불거부응답 행동에 의한 편의(bias)를 최소화하기 위해, 자신의 선호에 의해 지불의사액이 '0'이라고 답한 응답으로부터 지불거부응답을 판별해 내는 문항(protest response filtering items)과 그 미시적 근거를 제시한다. 이를 위해 본 논문은 선호에 기반한 지불의사액을 '잠재적 지불의사액(implicit willingness-to-pay)'이라고 정의함으로써 설문과정에서 선호체계 이외에 다양한 요인이 작용하여 결정된 '구술된 지불의사액(stated willingness-to-pay)'과 구분하였다. 한편, 한국개발연구원(KDI)에서 주관한 20여 건의 CVM 데이터를 이용한 실증분석 결과에 의하면, 지불거부응답은 무작위가 아닌 응답자의 사회 경제적 특징에 의해 체계적으로 발생한다. 이는 지불거부응답을 공공재의 경제적 가치 추정에서 제외시킬 때 선택편의(selectivity bias)가 발생할 수 있음을 의미한다. This study analyzes ways to detect protest responses (hereafter, PR zero-bid) in the contingent valuation method (CVM). In order to distinguish PR zero-bids from true zero-bids (non-PR zero bids), this study adopts the concept of the implicit willingness to pay employing the Hicksian compensating surplus and the Taylor's 1st order approximation. When a respondent proposes a zero-bid (i.e., WTP=0) and chooses a PR filtering item to indicate that her implicit WTP is not necessary zero, her response is identified as a PR zero bid. PR filtering items falling into the PR zero bids category include the uncertainty of information, distrust in the government and project achievement, disagreement to project plans, discontent with the fairness of public works and their payment method and animosity against the CVM itself. The empirical analysis shows that PR zero bids take place systematically in particular respondent groups: respondents who have never used similar facilities before nor plans to use the facility provided by the public project, the employed, and low income groups. In conclusion, the study suggests that a CVM questionnaire needs to be designed carefully to minimize problems associated with PR zero bids and the potential risks of having sample selection bias should be concerned.

Why Are Peak Loads Observed during Winter Months in Korea?

KIM, JEE YOUNG,OH, HYUNGNA,CHOI, KYUNG-MEE Korea Development Institute 2019 KDI Journal of Economic Policy (KDI JEP) Vol.41 No.1

Since 2009, electricity consumption has developed a unique seasonal pattern in South Korea. Winter loads have sharply increased, and they eventually exceeded summer peaks. This trend reversal distinguishes these load patterns from those in the USA and the EU, where annual peaks are observed during the summer months. Using Levene's test, we show statistical evidence of a rise in temperature but a decrease in variance over time regardless of the season. Despite the overall increase in the temperature, regardless of the season there should be another cause of the increased demand for electricity in winter. With the present study using data from 1991 to 2012, we provide empirical evidence that relatively low electricity prices regulated by the government have contributed significantly to the rapid upward change in electricity consumption, specifically during the winter months in the commercial sector in Korea.

EU-ETS 배출권가격 결정요인 분석: 과잉할당량을 중심으로

홍이슬 ( Leesle Hong ),오형나 ( Hyungna Oh ),홍종호 ( Jong Ho Hong ) 한국경제학회 2016 經濟學硏究 Vol.64 No.3

본 연구에서는 대표적 탄소시장인 유럽 배출권시장에서 가격하락요인으로 지목되어 온 배출권 과잉할당을 포함하여 배출권가격 결정요인을 분석하였다. 유럽배출권가격 결정요인에 관한 연구 중 과잉할당량을 계량분석 모형에 포함한 사례는 아직까지 없었다. 본 연구는 과잉할당량이 배출권가격에 미치는 영향에 대한실증분석 필요성을 바탕으로 거래제 단계 내 차입효과 모의변수와 함께 과잉할당량을 직접 계산하여 설명변수에 포함하였다. 과잉할당량은 문헌에서 논의된 방식에 따라 기준시나리오를 산정한 후 이를 실제 할당량과 비교하여 계산하였다. 분석 결과, 본 연구의 주요 변수인 과잉할당량과 주가지수, 전력스프레드, 주가지수와 전력스프레드의 상호작용항, 유가, 극한 기온이 유의한 수준의 영향을 미치는것으로 나타났다. Although the ``over-allocation`` of allowances in EU-ETS has been noted as a major cause of carbon price crash in phase I, few studies have analyzed quantitatively the issue of over-allocation in the formation of carbon prices. In this study, we employ new variables such as over-allocation and intra-phase borrowing in our regression model along with other price determinants. Based on the literature, the amount of over-allocation was calculated by comparing the cap to Business-as-Usual emissions. The over-allocation, stock price index, clean dark/spark spread, the interaction term of stock price index and clean dark/spark spread, oil price, and extreme weathers are found to be statistically significant.