1993/2008년 북한 인구센서스

홍성국(Hong, Song-Kuk) 북한학회 2010 북한학보 Vol.35 No.1

북한 체제하에서 실시된 인구센서스는 감시와 통제 분위기 때문에 현실을 충분히 설명하지 못하고 있다. 더욱이 정치적으로 작성된 조사보고서는 분석 상 혼선을 야기하고 있다. 그 대표적인 사례로 성비 불균형 문제를 들 수 있다. 특히 20~24세 연령층의 성비는 북한발표 성비가 실제 성비보다 33.1%나 낮은 상태에 있다. 양년도 북한의 인구센서스를 비교해 보면, 기간 중 구조 변동은 특히 식량난에서 비롯되고 있다. 연령별로는 경제난의 영향으로 5세 미만의 영유아들과 20대의 연령층에서 인구감소가 두드러졌다. 15세 미만 인구의 구성비가 급감한데 반해 65세 이상 인구의 그것은 현저하게 높아졌다. 1993년에 전체 인구에 차지하는 15세 미만 인구의 구성비는 27.0%를 차지하였으나 2008년에는 23.2%로 크게 떨어졌다. 이것은 물론 1990년대 후반 식량난이 극심해지면서 영양 부족으로 유소년 사망률이 높아졌기 때문이다. 이와는 대조적으로 전체 인구 가운데 65세 이상 인구의 비중이 크게 높아졌다. 그러나 북한노인층의 증가는 식량사정이 양호했던 일부 특수계층 노인들의 증가한 것으로 보이며 따라서 북한사회의 일반적인 고령화 현상이라고 보기 어렵다. 지역별로는 북한당국의 통제로 지역주민 인구의 자연증가에 영향을 많이 받고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 지역 이동은 남포시 인구와 개성 인구를 다른 지역으로 분산 배치하는 과정에서 발생하였다. North Korea population census does not offer us sufficient population data and informations, and makes us difficult to analyse it. Why? It is a good reason that North Korea people may habitually come in obedience to the census because they are always conscious of its government control and watch 1n comparison with the two population censuses, North Korea' s economic difficulties resulted in the variation of population structure during 1993~2008. By age, infant(1ess than 5 years old) and twenties owing to the severe difficulties has conspicuously decreased at the same time. On the contrary, 65 years old and over, who has viability less than other age groups, increased in spite of severe food shortage. However, this can not implicate enough that North Korea is changing gradually into an aging society. The aged increasing, mostly belonged to special families class and so could have mostly receive good supplies from the government in spite of food shortage. This is not general trend in population . The movement of population between regions is hardly found through censuses. That makes us explain that North Korea' s authorities has carried out strictly policy not to move between regions. Accordingly, this betrays that the freedom of dwelling and moving is lack in North Korea.

북한의 GNI 분배구조와 주민의 소비생활수준

홍성국(Hong Song-Kuk),윤홍석 북한연구소 2009 북한학보 Vol.34 No.1

한국은행은 2007년 현재 북한의 1인당 GNI가 1,152달러로 추정하였다. 이러한 추정결과는 중국의 1/2 수준이며 인도네시아와 필리핀의 77~78%에 이르는 규모이다. 그리고 베트남, 몽골, 예멘, 파키스탄 등에 비해서는 1.4~1.6배 정도에 이를 정도로 높은 규모이다. 이러한 단순비교를 통해 북한 GNI 추정결과는 북한의 어려운 경제 현실과 동떨어진 것이 아니냐는 의문이 제기되고 있다. 특히 외부 경제지원에 의존하고 있는 북한경제 현실에 비추어 볼 때, 북한 GNI는 너무 높게 평가되었다는 비판까지 나오고 있다. 그러나 이러한 의문이나 비판은 북한의 왜곡된 분배 및 지출구조를 간과한데서 비롯된 측면이 강하다. 북한의 국민소득은 군사비, 축적, 소비 등 크게 3개의 구성요소로 분배되고 지출된다. 이는 북한경제체제가 중앙집권적이면서 정치군사우선적인 속성이 강한 특이한 사회주의체제이기때문이다. 북한의 군사비는 GNI의 27~32% 수준이고 축적은 48~51% 수준이며 나머지 20~22% 만이 소비부문으로 분배·지출되어지고 있다. 이와 같이 북한경제의 분배 및 지출은 투자부문 비중이 20~30%, 소비부문 비중이 60~80%를 차지하고 있는 자본주의 국가들의 분배구조와는 아주 대조적인 특징을 갖는다. 따라서 북한 GNI는 생산적 측면에서는 상대적으로 높은 것처럼 보이지만, 이것이 북한주민생활 수준을 반영하는 것은 아니다. 분배 및 지출 측면에서 GNI의 대부분은 군사비 및 축적으로 분배·지출되고 북한주민에게 돌아가는 몫은 GNI의 20~22%에 불과하다는 것을 주목할 필요가 있다. 북한주민은 1인당 소비는 200달러(월 20달러 내외)의 아주 낮은 수준에 머물러 있다. 한국은행이 추정한 북한 GNI는 주민이 한계적 상황에서 겨우겨우 생활을 영위해나가고 있음을 말해준다. As of 2007, GNI per capita of North Korean economy is estimated at 1,152 dollars by the Bank of Korea. In comparison with the GNIs per capita of other countries, The estimation amounts to about 1/2 of China's, 77~78% of Indonesia's and the Philippines's in GNI per capita, but 1.4~1.6 times higher than that of Vietnam, Mongolia, Yemen, and Pakistan in Asia. Accordingly, it gives rise to critical opinions that the estimation may be overestimated because North Korea has been faced with economic difficulties and cannot help depending on foreign countries for the supply of foods. But these criticisms may be caused by overlooking the fact that North Korean economy is structurally distorted in the distribution composition of its national income. In terms of distribution of North Korea's national income, it is largely composed of three elements, military expenditure, accumulation, consumption, owing to its peculiar socialism system which takes precedence of politicalmilitary field. North Korea has annually distributed large military expenditure and accumulation(75~83% of GNI), and small consumption(only 20~22% of GNI). North Korea's distribution or expenditure is quite in contrast to the other capitalist countries in the world which roughly distribute and expend investment 20~30%, consumption 60~80% of their national incomes. In conclusion, North Korea's GNI by product approach cannot explain the level of people's consumption directly. But the GNI by distribution or expenditure approach, always occupies a high portion for large military expenditure and accumulation instead of only a small portion for people's consumption. North Korean consumption per capita lies low down about 200 dollars per year(20 dollars per month)

위장관 ( 胃腸管 ) : 조기 대장암

김진복(Jin Pok Kim),송인성(In Sung Song),최규완(Kyoo Wan Choi),최병인(Byung Ihn Choi),박재갑(Jae Gahb Park),김영우(Young Woo Kim),김용일(Yong Il Kim),정현채(Hyun Chae Jung),홍성국(Song Cook Hong),이건욱(Kuhn Uk Lee),최국진(Kuk Jin Ch 대한소화기학회 1990 대한소화기학회지 Vol.22 No.3

N/A To increase the survival rate of colorectal cancer, which represents 6% of all malignancies in Korea, early diagnosis is most important. We analyzed the 31 cases of early colorectal cancer who were admitted to Department of Surgery, Seoul National University Hospital from January 1970 to December 1989. The results were follows; 1) The incidence of early colorectal cancer among surgically treated colorectal cancer was 1.9% (31 cases out of 1615 cases). 2) The common symptoms were anal bleeding (81%), constipation (41%), and small caliber stool (26%). 3) The 17 cases out of 18 cases (95%) which were located within 12cm from anal verge were palpated as mass by digital examination, and 24 cases out of 27 cases (82%) were detected as mass by colon study, and 25 cases out of 28 cases (90%) were diagnosed as malignancy by sigmoidoscopic biopsy. 4) In early colorectal cancer with polyp remnant, 8 cases out of 27 cases (30%) were confined to mucosa and 18 cases out of 27 cases (70%) were confined to submucosa. In early colorectal cancer without polyp remnant all 4 cases (100%) were confined to submucosa. 5) In early colorectal cancer with polyp remnant, histologic type of polyp were tubular polyp in 9 cases (33%), villotubular polyp in 6 cases (22%), and villous polyp in 12 cases (45%). 6) The size of tumor were 1.4 cm (1 case), from 1 cm to 2 cm (5 cases), from 2 cm to 4 cm (14 cases) from 4 cm to 6 cm (5 cases), 7 cm (1 case), 8 cm (2 cases) and 13 cm (1 case). 7) Thirteen patients were operated more than 5 years ago and two of them died. One died of pulmonary metastasis of cervix cancer, and the other of unknown cause. 8) Eighteen patients were operated during recent 5 years and one of them died of chronic renal failure.

위장관 ( 胃腸管 ) : 고유근층 대장암의 임상적 고찰

김진복(Jin Pok Kim),송인성(In Sung Song),최규완(Kyoo Wan Choi),최병인(Byung Ihn Choi),박재갑(Jae Gahb Park),김용일(Yong Il Kim),김영우(Young Woo Kim),정현채(Hyun Chae Jung),홍성국(Song Cook Hong),이건욱(Kuhn Uk Lee),최국진(Kuk Jin Ch 대한소화기학회 1991 대한소화기학회지 Vol.23 No.2

N/A If detected in early stage and appropriate treatment ensued immediately, the cure rate of colorectal cancer would be increased. But, the proportion of early colorectal cancer in Seoul National Uneversity Hospital was only 1.9% of operated cases. We reviewed the medical records of 192 patients underwent curative resection for proper muscle (PM) colorectal cancer between 1970 and 1989 retrospectively speculating that these lesions are more advanced than early colorectal cancer but earlier than advanced colorectal cancer. Follow-up information for survival data was available for 151 patients (93%) among 163 patients between 1980 and 1989. The results for the PM colorectal cancer are followings. 1) The proportion was not increasing. Mean proportion between 1970 and 1989 was 12%. 2) The tumor smaller than 2 cm occupied 10% of PM colorectal cancer comparing to 0.86% in total colorectal cancer in the same duration. 3) Node negative lesion comprised 77% comparing to 52%. in total colorectal cancer. 4) Five year survival rate was 84% overall (n=163, 1980-1989), 88% in node negative group (n= 125), 69% in node positive group (n =38) (p value<0.05). 5) The overall recurrence rate was 13.5%(26/192). The recurrence rate as to tumor size was 6.7% in the group which had the lesion smaller than 2 cm, 11% in the group with 2 to 5 cm, 199. in the group larger than 5 cm. Node negative group had recurrence rate of 9.5% (14/148), on the contrary, 27% in node positive group (12/44). 6) In node negative group, the subgroup with the lesion smaller than 2 cm had no recurrence and had 92%: five year survival rate but, the subgroup with larger than 2 cm had 10%: recurrence rate and 85%, five year survival rate. As a conclusion, PM colorectal cancer without lymph node metastasis and smaller than 2 cm size had no recurrence and survived well above 90%. And it is reasonable to consider the possibility of systemic spread even in lymph node negative PM colorectal cancer if the trmor size exceeds 2 cm.

위장관 ( 胃腸管 ) : 위석에 대한 임상적 고찰

김진복(Jin Pok Kim),박재갑(Jae Gahb Park),홍성국(Song Cook Hong),이건욱(Kuhn Uk Lee),박진우(Jin Woo Park),권오중(Oh Joong Kwon),최국진(Kuk Jing Choe) 대한소화기학회 1991 대한소화기학회지 Vol.23 No.1

N/A Twenty seven cases of bezoars from 1980 to 1990 were analyzed clinically. The results were as follows; 1) Male to female ratio was l.7 : l. 2) There were 26 cases of phytobezoars and 1 case of trichobezoar. 3) The bezoars were prevalent in the 4th decade and in the autumn & winter. 4) The durations of symptom from onset to admission to hospital were mostly within 2 weeks. 5) The common symptoms and signs were aMominal pain, tenderness, constipation, nausea and vomiting. 6) Of the 27 cases, 15 cases were diagnosed as bezoar preoperatively, so diagnotic rate of bezoar was 56%. 7) The locations of bezoars were predominant in the stomach (44%) and ileum (37%). 8) The complications of bezoars were intestinal obstruction (59%), mechanical mucosal ulceration (37%), bowel perforation (4%) and postoperative wound infection (7%). 9) The operative treatments were done in the 24 cases (16 cases-enterotomy & bezoar extraction, 8 cases-resection & anastomosis).

직장암에 있어서 EEA 봉합기 및 수기문합을 시행한 저위 전방 절제술에 대한 고찰

최재운(Jae Won Choi),윤여규(Yeo Kyu Youn),홍성국(Song Kuk Hong),최국진(Kuk Jin Choe) 대한외과학회 1989 Annals of Surgical Treatment and Research Vol.37 No.1