환율변동성이 수출에 미치는 효과분석 : The Case of Korean Export to the U.S. during the Market Average Exchange Rate System of 1990's

현성민,조성일 대진대학교 2000 大眞論叢 Vol.8 No.-

The purpose of this paper is to show the empirical evidence that the exchange rate volatility risk on export could be positive. GARCH(1,l) process, known to be superior method t o any other measures, is used to generate a measure of volatility risk. Exchange rate volatility risk measured by GARCH(1,l) process must be stationary so that volatility risk cannot be included in export equation with any other I(1) variables. Johansen multivariate cointegration test is applied to investigate if there exists a cointegration vector between export volume index, relative price, and the U.S. industrial production index. We can come to conclude that there is at least 1 cointegration vector between three I(1) variables. So the long-run equilibrium export equation is estimated. In the long-run, the relative price has a inelastic negative effects, while the U.S. industrial production has a elastic positive effects on Korean export to the U.S. At the next step, 1st differenced three variables, which are transformed to I(0) stationary, and volatility risk, which is measured GARCH(1.1) process, make up ECM of short-run adjustment dynamics. In the short-run adjustment, exchange rate volatility risk has a statistically significant positive effect on various period lags. This empirical evidence seems to be explained by the real option model and/or the moral hazard phenomenon of Korean exporting firms.

자동차세 부과ㆍ징수절차의 합리적인 개선방안에 관한 연구

현성민,유태현 동아시아경제사회연구회 2006 동아시아경제사회연구 Vol.1 No.2

建設 및 觀光部門에 대한 對北 投資進出方案

玄成珉 대진대학교 1996 大眞論叢 Vol.4 No.-

The economic gap between North and South Korea is so great that any dramatic rapprochement is unlikely in the short run. Nevertheless, changing internal and external environments are putting considerable pressure on both Korea to open up to each other. Therefore, considering North-South economic cooperation and unification in the near future, it is meaningful to find a possible way of cooperation and mutual investment. In particular, investments in construction and tourist sectors in North Korea have quite worthy to investigate in that they will be able to induce North Korea to open the door and advance the day of reunification. So, this study suggests a way to make inroad to North Korean market of South Korean companies, predicting the demands of North Korea for construction and tourist sectors and finding the possibility of investment in these sectors.

情報와 銀行의 與信運用에 관한 硏究

현성민 대진대학교 1998 大眞論叢 Vol.6 No.-

Credit rationing is a condition of loan markets in which the lender supply of funds is less than borrower demand at the quoted contract terms. Moral hazard and adverse selection as much more general features of loan markets are the source of credit rationing when there is asymmetrical information. The moral hazard feature arises because individual borrowers choose to operate risker projects at higher loan rates. The adverse selection feature arises become unprofitable at higher loan rates, causing the remaining pool of loan applicants to become risker. Thus, while higher loan rates increase the lender's expected revenue for all borrowers. Given that the risk character of individual borrowers and projects cannot be identified a priori, it may be optimal policy for the lender to set the loan rate below the market-clearing level and to ration credit. For rationing to exist on a continuing basis in loan markets, therefore, the interest rate must be maintained below the market-cleaning level by special factors.

상대적 교란, 상대가격변동성과 인플레이션율간의 관계에 대한 실증분석

현성민 대진대학교 1995 大眞論叢 Vol.3 No.-

Analytic contributions in the imperfect information market-clearing framework have shown how uncertainty about inflation can reduce the efficiency of the price system and how relative price variablity is likely to be greater when there are unanticipated changes in the price level. Such analyses, combined with the assumption the high inflation rates are also more uncertain, provide a rationalization for the view that inflation may itself be a factor explaining the poor performance of industrial economies after 1973. In this paper I investigate the empirical realtions between relative shocks, relative price variability, and inflation in Korea for the 1975-1990 perids. Three conclusions are supported by findings of this paper. First, there are positive relations between relative price variability and the rate of inflation in Korea for the periods. Second, the association between relative price variability and inflation is dominated by relative shocks like food and energy shocks. Third, from a welfare economics viewpoint, inflation and relative price variability affect negatively the real GNP.

초기 성인기 내현적 자기애와 외로움의 관계: 적대감과 분노표현 방식의 매개효과

현성민,정남운 학습자중심교과교육학회 2021 학습자중심교과교육연구 Vol.21 No.11

Objectives This study was aimed to examine the structural relationship between covert narcissistic tendency, loneliness, and the mediating effects of anger expression and hostility. Methods For this purpose, 500 single female and male aged from 20 to 34 participated in this study in November 2015. The data was collected through online panel survey. Results To analyze the collected data, correlation analysis and the structural equation modeling was employed to examine the model fit and the mediating effect by SPSS 20.0 and AMOS 20.0. Conclusions The result has implied loneliness could be vulnerable to people with covert narcissistic tendency, and that it might seem they strengthen or weaken loneliness through anger, which is easier emotion to accept. As they suppress their anger, this would result in increased loneliness. By expressing the anger, one could partly alleviate the perceived loneliness. However, in this case, anger expression might alleviate loneliness for a while but would eventually restrict the quality and quantity of interpersonal relationship. For future studies, the introduction of a new variable would be necessary to intervene the dysfunctional anger expression for those with covert narcissistic tendency 목적 본 연구는 초기 성인기의 내현적 자기애와 외로움의 구조적 관계를 파악하고, 분노표현방식의 매개효과를 검증하는 데 목적이있다. 방법 이를 위해 2015년 11월 20~34세 성인 미혼 남녀 500명을 대상으로 온라인 패널 설문조사 방식으로 자료를 수집하였다. 결과 수집된 자료는 SPSS 20.0과 AMOS 20.0을 사용하여 변인 간 상관관계를 파악하고, 구조방정식 모형으로 매개모형의 적합도를, 부스트랩(bootstrap) 절차에 따라 매개효과를 검증하였다. 결론 내현적 자기애 성향자에게 외로움은 분노와 같이 보다 용인하기 쉬운 감정을 통해 대체되는 것처럼 보인다. 분노를 억제할수록외로움이 커지는 데 비해, 분노표출은 외로움에 대한 지각을 완화 시켰다. 하지만 분노표출은 일시적으로 외로움에 대한 지각을 감소시키지만, 대인관계 질과 양을 모두 제약하는 결과를 가져올 수 있다. 연구 결과를 바탕으로 내현적 자기애 성향자의 역기능적인 분노표현방식을 중재할 수 있도록 시사점을 제언하였다.

지방세 체납세 징수 효율화 방안

현성민 ( Seong Min Hyun ) 한국재정정책학회 2013 財政政策論集 Vol.15 No.2

본 연구는 지방세 분야를 대상으로 체납의 원인과 문제점을 분석하고, 그 분석 결과에 근거하여 지방세 체납징수 효율성을 도모할 수 있는 합리적인 대안을 모색하여 제시하고자 하였다. 체납된 지방세를 효율적으로 징수하기 위해서는 첫째, 지방세 체납 처벌 규정을 내실화한다. 구체적으로 관허사업 제한 제도 실효성 확보, 출국금지 기준의 강화, 고액·상습체납자 명단공개 대상의 확대, 자동차세 징수촉탁제의 개선 등을 들 수 있다. 둘째, 지방세 체납징수 시스템을 체계적으로 구축하는 것이다. 체납자 담세능력 파악 강화, 체납 담당 조직의 확대, 체납 담당 인력의 충원, 체납 담당자의 전문성 제고, 체납 관리방식의 개선 등을 들 수 있다. 셋째, 체납징수 업무를 민간에 위탁하는 방안을 고려해 볼 수 있다. 그러나 이 방안은 지방 자치단체의 지방세 체납징수를 보조하는 방식으로 이루어져야 할 것이다. This study analyzes the causes and problems of local taxes in arrears. On that basis, this paper suggests some rational alternatives about how to efficiently collect local taxes in arrears. The alternatives are as follows; First, the local government needs to reinforce penalty regulations for default on local taxes. Some examples of these regulations are securing a realistic and effective system on limiting government-licensed business, enhancing the standards prohibiting departure, and opening to the pubic the list of taxpayers who habitually get in arrears or have defaulted large sums of local taxes. Second, the systematic construction by local governments of a system of collecting local taxes in arrears is necessary - for example, understanding well the taxpaying ability of the defaulters, enlargement of tax delinquency responsibility organizations and supplement of the personnel, enhancing the professionalism of the person in charge of tax arrearage, and improving tax delinquency management methods. Finally, the local government needs to consider delegating the collection of local taxes in arrears to the private sector. However, this method must be realized in such a way that the private sector provides assistance to local governments.

서울시 조정교부금제도 개선방안에 관한 연구

현성민 ( Seong Min Hyun ),유태현 ( Tae Hyun Yoo ) 한국재정정책학회 2008 財政政策論集 Vol.10 No.1

외국인직접투자 유입이 지역경제성장과 소득불평등에 미치는 영향

현성민 ( Seong-min Hyun ),권선희 ( Sun Hee Kwon ) 한국재정정책학회 2017 財政政策論集 Vol.19 No.2

세계경제의 글로벌화 추세에 맞춰 외국인직접투자(FDI)의 적극적 유치를 통한 개방화 정책이 시행되고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 FDI 유입이 각 지역의 경제성장과 소득불평등에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위하여 국내 16개 시도로 구분하여 실증 분석하였다. 그 결과, FDI 유입이 지역경제성장과 소득불평등 완화에 긍정적인 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다. 이를 통해 지방자치단체에서는 기술과 인력향상에 기여할 수 있는 FDI 유치정책으로 경제성장과 더불어 각 지역의 소득분배의 조화를 이룰 수 있는 방안을 모색해야 할 것이다. In the globalization trend of the global economy, the openness policy is being implemented through aggressive inducement of foreign direct investment(FDI). The study analyzed the impact of FDI on regional economic growth and income inequality, and divided it into 16 regions. As a result, FDI inflows have shown a positive effect on regional economic growth and the easing of income inequality. In this way, the local autonomous governments should seek ways to balance the distribution of income in each region along with the economic growth policies, with policies to attract FDI that can contribute to the improvement of technology and manpower.

정부 재정지출의 국민경제 파급효과

현성민 ( Seong Min Hyun ),정군오 ( Kun Oh Jung ),임응순 ( Eung Soon Lim ) 한국재정정책학회 2014 財政政策論集 Vol.16 No.2

재정지출은 정부에서 대내외 경제여건의 변화에 따라 거시경제 목표 달성을 위하여 사용하는 하나의 정책도구 이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 재정지출이 국민경 제에 미치는 파급효과를 분석하였다. 이를 위하여 2000년부터 2009년까지의 산 업연관표를 바탕으로 산업연관분석을 실시하였다. 구체적으로 수요유도형 모형을 이용하여 생산유발효과, 부가가치유발효과 그리고 취업유발효과를 분석하였다. 이를 바탕으로 국민계정에서 제공하는 일반정부 총지출 자료를 사용하여 재 정지출에서 큰 비중을 차지하고 있는 교육, 국방, 보건, 사회복지 분야에 대한 국민경제적 파급효과를 분석하였다. Government expenditure is a kind of tools of the policy which can be used by the government to achieve the macro economic goal following the interior and exterior economic conditions. Therefore this study attempts to analyse national economic effects of government expenditure. The inter-industry table from 2000 to 2009 is used for this Inter-industry analysis. In detail, this study analyses the production-inducing effect, the value added inducing effect and the employ-inducing effect using the demand-drive model. We also analyses the economic effects of education, defense, health and social welfare which take a large part of the government expenditure using the general government total expenditure data from national account.