미국 의회 리더십의 성격에 관한 고찰 -하원의장의 정치적 권한과 역할을 중심으로-

조성대 ( Sung Dai Cho ) 한국선거학회 2011 선거연구 Vol.1 No.1

"조정자(moderator) 대 지도자(leader)" 혹은 "전환기적 지도자(transformational leader) 대 충실한 대리인(faithful agent)"이라는 대조는 의회 리더십 연구에 다음과 같은 질문을 던지게 한다. 첫째, 헌법과 의회 규칙은 의회 지도자의 제도적 권한을 어떻게 규정하고 있으며, 그러한 규정은 ``조정자 대 다수당 지도자``라는 의회 리더십 성격에 관한 이론적 논쟁과 어떻게 연결되는가를 파악해볼 필요가 있다. 둘째, ``과연 어떤 사람이 의회 리더십으로 선출되어 왔는가``와 ``어떤 리더가 어떤 정치적 역할을 담당해왔는가``는 주제는 의회 리더십 이해의 핵심적인 요소이다. 셋째, ``의회 리더십 연구를 통해 과연 우리는 무엇을 배울 수 있는가`` 이다. 이 글은 위의 세 가지 문제를 미국 의회의 하원의장의 리더십을 중심으로 고찰한다. As implied by "moderator vs. leader" or "transformational leader vs faithful agent," the study of congressional leadership needs theoretical and empirical answers about the following questions. First, it needs to be answered for what political rights and roles are provided by the Constitution or other political institutions and how they are connected to ``moderator vs. leader`` controversies. Second, it is also important to understand ``how leaders are selected under what circumstances`` and ``what political roles are provided by them.`` Lastly, we also want to get practical lessons from those studies. With the case study on the US Congressional leadership, particualry, the Speaker of the House, this paper tries to answer above three questions.

2008년 미국 대통령선거 후보결정 요인에 관한 연구

조성대(Cho Sung Dai) 21세기정치학회 2010 21세기 정치학회보 Vol.20 No.1

This paper aims to find factors which affected the electoral competition between Barack Obama and John McCain in the 2008 American presidential race. Particularly, this paper endeavors to explain how variables such as party identification, retrospective & prospective judgement, and candidate quality are linked to the final candidate selection. This paper also seeks to weigh relative importance of those variables through the logistic regression analysis. Using the 2008 ANES data, This paper finds that the retrospective evaluation on the economic performance of Bush administration, and the prospective judgement on Iraqi War and healthcare were the most critical issues. Further, regarding candidate traits, the leadership and virtue which are traditionally attached to the Republican party were more important than the competence and compassion in which the Democratic party has the more strength.

지방선거와 정당참여

조성대(Cho Sung Dai) 21세기정치학회 2003 21세기 정치학회보 Vol.13 No.1

The issue of party involvement in local elections depends on its political role in compositions and activities of local government. Until recent, however, the negative views on party involvement in local elections have prevailed due to moral hazards produced in the illegal nomination and campaign process. Some critics, therefore, argue that exclusion of party label in local elections will enhance autonomy of local government with strengthening its administrative status. However, the self-governance in local or provincial levels can not be confined to administrative domain. It is also a political domain, which authoritatively distributes values. In this vein, this paper examines the issue of party involvement in local electoral process, with regards to relationship between party competition under regionalism and productive capacity of local assembly. Particularly, the structure of party politics lies at the heart of this paper. That is, this paper investigates how productive capacity of local assemblies is influenced by partisan elements such as partisanship of provincial governors and mayors, the presence of independently elected members, and monopoly rate of assembly seats by regional parties. The empirical results tell us that when party competition rate is high, then the production capacity of local assembly increases, while the opposite results come out, if assembly seats are monopolized by certain regional parties. In other words, this paper finds that legislation and government-checking activities carried out by local assemblies are increased where parties are highly competitive in local political process. This result gives an important implication to party nomination system in the local campaign process. That is, we may be wrong if we try to find an alternative through normative or moral prescriptions against ill effects of party politics in local areas. Rather, this paper implies that in order to recover political normality, the regionally based party structure should be dissolved through serious efforts from both politicians and electorate.

정치이벤트, 정당지지도, 그리고 17대 총선

조성대(Cho Sung Dai) 21세기정치학회 2004 21세기 정치학회보 Vol.14 No.3

This paper aims to answer two research questions. The first question is about how much influence the Presidential impeachment issue and several political events thereafter had on party supports and electoral choices in the last 17th general election. The second is about explanatory power of personal vote on electoral gains of the opposite candidates, particularly around the National Capital region. The empirical findings from the aggregate data tell us, first, the Presidential impeachment issue and other campaign events combined with regionalism played a key role in party supports and vote choices of the Korean electorate, and in result brought electoral dynamics to the Korean party politics. Nonetheless, the regression analysis shows that personal quality and competitive power of the opposite candidates did affect in their garnering personal votes.

미국 연방제의 역사적 변화에 관한 연구: 위압적 연방주의의 등장과 미래

조성대 ( Sung Dai Cho ) 비교민주주의연구센터(비교민주주의학회) 2010 비교민주주의연구 Vol.6 No.2

이 글은 분리되었지만 권력을 공유한다는 이중주권의 연방제의 성격이 중앙집중의 구심력과 탈중앙의 원심력 간의 상호작용에 의해 결정된다는 이론틀 아래 1990년대 이후 미국 연방주의의 성격 변화를 고찰한다. 특히, 1990년대 이후 위압적 연방주의의 등장과 변화 가능성을 부시 행정부와 오바마 행정부 기간을 통해 주요 정책들을 사례로 평가한다. 분석 결과는 부시 행정부 기간에는 위임과 선점 이주의 위압적 연방주의가 강화되었고 연방정부도 억제자의 역할이 강조되었던 반면, 오바마 행정부에서는 협력적 연방주의와 위압적 연방주의가 혼성된 형태로 진행되고 있음을 보여준다. This paper aims to review the historical changes in American federalism on the basis of a hypothesis that the status of federalism is mainly determined by a dynamic interaction between centripetal nationalization and centripetal localization forces. Particularly, this paper examines the rise of coercive federalism since the 1990s and its prospect during the Bush and Obama administration. The empirical results show that federalism during the Bush administration mainly features coercive traits with overuse of mandates and total preemption, while it reveals a inflection toward a hybrid system of cooperative and coercive measures during the current Obama administration.

2016년 미국 대선의 예비선거: 제도, 과정, 결과 및 함의

조성대 ( Cho Sung Dai ) 한국의회발전연구회 2016 의정연구 Vol.22 No.3

이 글은 2016년 미국 대선의 예비선거를 과정, 제도, 과정, 결과로 나누어 설명하고자 한다. 첫째, 예비선거의 역사적 기원을 짧게 살펴본 후 제도의 내용을 대의원 할당 규칙, 경선의 유형 및 대의원 배분 규칙을 중심으로 설명한다. 둘째, 경선의 과정을 세 가지 특징-아웃사이더 현상, 정책 쟁점, 경합전당대회-을 중심으로 설명한다. 마지막으로 본선의 서막을 알리는 전당대회의 모습을 묘사한다. 결론에서는 미국 예비선거가 한국 정치에 지니는 함의를 짧게 토론한다. This paper aims to explain the institutions, process, and results of the 2016 American Presidential Primary. First, it traces its historical origin briefly and outlines in detail its institutional structure in terms of the rules of delegates allocation to the states, the types of caucus and primary, and the rules for delegate pledging. Second, it explains the process of the 2016 primary through its three outstanding features-outsider phenomenon, policy issues, and contested convention. Lastly, it reports the political mood surrounding the two parties` national convention. In conclusion part, the brief discussion of implication to the Korean politics is presented.

연합정치의 비교정치적 맥락과 한국적 적용

조성대(Cho, Sung Dai),홍재우(Hong, Jae Woo) 역사비평사 2012 역사비평 Vol.- No.98

This paper investigates the institutional context of coalition politics under presidentialism, which had been known to be a rare pair of institutional choices. As a proposed remedy for Linz’s “perils of presidentialism” the coalition politics rather increases political stability and governability under presidentialism. Thus, coalition politics should be an applicable solution for the problems of Korean presidential politics. Given these new theoretical and empirical findings in political science, we suggest some institutional reforms promoting coalition politics: reducing presidential unilateral power and reforming electoral systems to proportional representation in parliamentary election and run-off in presidential election. The paper also examines the history of coalition politics in presidential elections since democratization in 1987. Finally, we suggest strategic road map to achieve an electoral coalition among the opposition parties for coming 2012 national assembly and presidential elections.

코끼리는 생각하지마?

조성대(Cho Sung Dai) 21세기정치학회 2012 21세기 정치학회보 Vol.22 No.1

This paper aims to provide empirical evidences to the theory of trait ownership and trait trespassing hypothesis. The theory of trait ownership says that the US political parties has owned certain traits which has been transformed from their historical issue ownership. And it has strongly influenced voters' perception of two parties' candidates in terms of their personal quality. The trait trespassing hypothesis says that if a certain candidate arms him(her)self with traits that has been traditionally under rival party's ownership, then it gives him(her) an electoral advantage. From the empirical analysis from the 1984 to 2008 U.S. presidential election cases, this paper finds the following two observations. First, since the 1980s, the Republican party has had its trait ownership in strong leadership and morality area, while the Democratic party did it in competence and empathy area. And this pattern has strongly influenced the voters' candidate evaluation through their partisan bias. Second, with exception of the 1996 presidential election case, all cases under empirical analysis show the stark contrast between the strong leadership and empathy variables as a weapon of trait trespassing for the Democratic and Republican candidates, respectively. In sum, findings in this paper suggest that candidate traits are not a mere short-term factor which has an idiosyncratic character, and that they need a universal treatment for the regular and lasting effects on candidate evaluation and vote choice.

퇴장(Exit)과 항의(Voice)의 선택

조성대(Cho Sung Dai) 21세기정치학회 2000 21세기 정치학회보 Vol.10 No.1

1960년대 이후 시행된 10차례의 미국 대통령선거 중 제3당 후보의 심각한 도전이 이루어진 선거는 4차례나 된다. 이러한 제3당 후보에 의한 도전은 투표자의 선택에 대해 중요한 이론적ㆍ경험적 문제를 제기한다. 어떤 요인들이 투표자들로 하여금 전통적인 민주-공화의 양당제도로부터 이탈해 제3의 선택을 하게끔 만드는가? 어떤 제3당 후보들은 상대적으로 강한 지지를 받으며 또 다른 이들은 그렇지 못한가? 허쉬만의ㆍ퇴장, 항의 그리고 충성ㆍ의 이론적 틀을 이용, 이 글은 위의 질문에 대답하고자 한다. 유권자들의 제3당 후보에 대한 지지를 “퇴장”행위로, 그리고 양대 정당의 후보에 대한 투표자의 선택을 “항의”행위로 정의한 후, 이들은 투표자들을 퇴장과 항의로 이끄는 요인들에 대한 분석을 목표로 한다. 특히, 이 글은 제3당 후보선택에 관한 기존의 이론, 즉 현존하는 양당제도에 대한 시민들의 불만이-예를 들면, 정책이슈들에 대한 소외, 매력적이지 못한 양당 후보, 등-제3당 운동의 실질적 근거가 된다는 “저항투표”이론에 대한 보충을 시도한다. 하나의 대안으로 이 글은 제3당 후보의 현존 정치제도 대체할 수 있는 능력, 즉 대체성(substitutability)과 그에 대한 이론을 제기하며, 이 대체성이야 말로 양대정당에 대한 유권자들의 불만과 함께 투표자들의 퇴장행위를 설명하는 중요한 변수임을 로지스틱 회귀분석을 통하여 경험적으로 밝힌다.

균열구조와 정당체계

조성대(Cho Sung-dai) 서강대학교 현대정치연구소 2008 현대정치연구 Vol.1 No.1