[論文] Economic Feasibility of Reverse Mortage Annuity for the Elderly Housing Welfare

조덕호(Deokho Cho),마승렬(Seungryul Ma) 한국주택학회 2004 주택연구 Vol.12 No.1

본 논문은 노인가구주의 주거안정과 생활안정을 위해, 주택가격, 전세가격, 3년만기 회사채 수익률자료를 이용하여 한국주택시장에서의 역저당제도의 경제적 타당성을 분석하는 데 목적이 있다. 이 논문은 위의 세 가지 시계열시리즈 자료를 활용하여, 주택자산의 비유동화에 따른 비용과 가능한 월역저당 연금액을 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 역저당연금 제도가 한국 주택 시장에서 경제적인 타당성이 있으며, 또한 많은 잠재적인 수요가 있는 것으로 판명되었다 따라서 노후 복지를 위해서는 노인 가구가 소유하고 있는 주택자산을 유동화하여 주택에 대한 소유권을 보장하면서, 주거안정과 생활안정을 동시에 보장할 수 있는 역저당제도가 시급히 도입되어야 할 것으로 판단된다. This study analyzed the economic feasibility of reverse mortgage system in the Korean housing market using the data of housing and Chonsei price, and three years maturity corporate bond in order to solve the shortage of living cost of elderly homeowners. Using these time series data, this paper analyzed the non-liquidation costs of housing assets and monthly reverse mortgage annuity amount. The result shows that the reverse mortgage system is economically feasible in the Korean housing market and there are a lot of potential demanders. Therefore, this paper will contribute to suggest some policy implications for the guarantee of living cost of the Korean elderly households.

The Estimation of Effects of Subprime Mortgage for Improving the Farmland Pension System Using Intervention Time Series Model

Cho, Deokho(조덕호) 한국도시행정학회 2015 도시 행정 학보 Vol.28 No.2

South Korea is one of the fastest ageing countries due to longer life expectancy and lower birth rate. And sooner or later ageing population will becomes a big social problem, especially in the rural area. In order to solve this problem, the Korean government develops the farmland reverse mortgage system (FP). The key factor of FP is the farmland value forecasting. The land value is affected by the land tax, economic recession, and subprime mortgage crisis, etc. Therefore this paper estimated the effect of subprime mortgage which significantly affects the farmland value. In order to estimate the external effects of changing rates of farmland value by the subprime mortgage, this paper reviews the actuarial model of farmland pension system, the time series model (ARIMA), OLS regression, and interrupted time series model (ITSA). More specifically this study implemented the purse function model to figures out the changing rates of three key variables of farmland pension which are composed of the increasing rates of dryfield, ricefield, and interest rates. The coefficients of dummy variables of dryfield and ricefield during the subprime mortgage periods are -3.755 and -3.479 respectively. Their regression coefficients before the intervention are -0.007 and -0.004 respectively. It means that the subprime mortgage affects extremely negatively the increasing rates of farmland value. It also shows the similar results in the change of interest rates. Therefore ITSA model should be developed for the long term forecasting for considering the interruption effects, such as public policies and any other interruption.

The Characteristics Analysis of Life Satisfaction of Potential Elderly and Elderly People

Cho, Deokho(조덕호),Kim, Soo Young(김수영) 한국도시행정학회 2017 도시 행정 학보 Vol.30 No.2

Life satisfaction has often been referred to as one of the most powerful factors in establishing senior citizens’ welfare policy. The main purpose of this study is to analyze the life satisfaction of elderly people (65 and over) and potential elderly people (55-64) in order to establish adequate welfare policies. This study uses the ordered logistic model because the Korean Retirement and Income Study Panel Dataset are composed of the ordered category data. The results revealed that, first, health, economy and housing variables in both potential elderly and elderly people groups are commonly fundamental to the life satisfaction. Hence the Korean government should focus more on giving some policy priorities with health of elderly people being at the top of the list, irrespective of age levels. Secondly, economic issue is also important for these people. Thus, a pension policy which stabilizes the economic status for the senior groups should be established. Thirdly, housing reflects the dwelling instability due to high housing price and lack of rental housing for the poor and elderly. Based on these findings, the Korean government needs to come up with several strategies which aim at addressing such challenges in establishing the elderly welfare policy.

노인가구와 잠재적 노인가구의 주거 만족도 특성 연구

조덕호 ( Cho Deokho ) 대한정치학회 2017 대한정치학회보 Vol.25 No.1

Housing satisfaction is one of the most powerful factors in establishing elderly welfare policy. Especially housing satisfaction along with economic factors is one of the most important factors in the life satisfaction. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the determinants of the housing satisfaction of elderly people (65 and over) and potential elderly group (55-64) for building the age considered welfare policies. The ordered panel probit regression and Pooled OLS methods are used in this study because the Korean Retirement and Income Study Panel Dataset on the satisfaction are composed of the ordered category panel data. The results revealed that economy, neighborhood, and leisure variables are commonly fundamental to the housing satisfaction irrespective of age groups and analysis methods. Based on these findings, the Korean government should establish the pension policy which stabilizes the economic status for the senior groups. She also should make an effort to recover the social community system for the elderly households for neighborhood and leisure variables.

농지연금을 활용한 농촌지역 구조조정

조덕호 ( Deokho Cho ),김동신 ( Dongshin Kim ),여창환 ( Changhwan Yeo ) 대한정치학회 2016 대한정치학회보 Vol.24 No.4

Despite of Korea experiencing the fastest economic growth in the world Korea simultaneously suffers from the fastest population aging due to the lowest birth rates and extension of the average life expectancy. These problems become more serious in the rural areas because a lot of young generations move into the urban areas for children education and better job opportunity. Population aging in the rural areas becomes deteriorates the social problems. In order to solve these social and economic problems in the rural areas, the Korean government eventually introduced in 2011 the farmland reverse mortgage system, which is called “Farmland Pension” (FP). However its policy effects are still questionable in term of economic development and social welfare delivery in the rural areas. And then this paper tries to identify the farmland pension monthly payment for the rural elderly and also to figure out a method how the farmland returned from the rural elderly can be developed into a social enterprise. Finally it notes that this social enterprise, which represents a convergence of agriculture, manufacturing and marketing (CAMM), can be implemented at the local community level and it results in the economic development and good welfare delivery for the rural community.

노인가구의 공적 연금 지급에 관한 연구

조덕호 ( Deokho Cho ) 대한정치학회 2017 대한정치학회보 Vol.25 No.4

Korea has experienced two different things for the last 50 years. She achieved a dramatic economic growth from the desperately poor country to the advanced country. However, she meets the welfare shortage for the elderly people in the other aspect. Therefore the Korean government should solve the welfare issues for the elderly people. This study makes an effort to increase the payment of public pension and to improve the recipient of the public pension. It used the Tax and Finance Panel Data from 2012 to 2015 considering theoretical aspects and data availability. In order to make panel data set, this paper merges cross-sectional data set of each year using ‘hhid’ and ‘year’ which are key variables. This study analyzes the characteristics of household which receive the public pension payment using panel logit model. Three different models such as random, pooled and fixed models are used in this analysis. The Korean pension system has two basic problems such as the small proportion of recipients of public pension and low replacement rate of living costs. The Korean government should simultaneously search the policy alternatives to improve these two problems.

노인복지정책 개선을 위한 노인 및 잠재적 노인가구의 빈곤 특성

조덕호 ( Deokho Cho ),여창환 ( Changhwan Yeo ),정영숙 ( Young-sook Chung ) 대한정치학회 2017 대한정치학회보 Vol.25 No.3

The poverty problem of elderly (65 years old and over) in Korea remains pervasive. The one of potential elderly (55-64) will also become a big social issue after retirement from the job market. This paper tries to figure out the factors that affect the elderly and potential elderly household poverties in order to establish adequate welfare policies. The paper merges ten years Korean Welfare Panel Data using two merge key variables (hid and time). This study implements the panel logit analysis on the factors which affect the poverties of the elderly and potential elderly. It analyzes demographic, economic, and systematic related variables. Based on the analysis results, the ordinary income and housing values variables affect positively regular households irrespective of age groups. Main economic activities and sex variables have a negative effect on the poverty problems. The government chooses the policy alternatives for improving the poverty problems, considering the poverty characteristics of age groups, economic activity, sex, and so on. This paper suggests some current and future policy alternatives considering all together the poverty problems of elderly and potential elderly households.

The Assessment Model on the Urban Sustainability and its Application

조덕호(Deokho Cho),정회성(hoiseong Jeong),김창석(Changseok Kim),이동근(Donggun Lee) 대한국토·도시계획학회 2001 국토계획 Vol.36 No.6

The Analysis of Political, Financial, and Economic Perceptions on Selective versus Universal Welfare

Cho, Deokho(조덕호),Park, Gil H.(박길환) 한국도시행정학회 2014 도시 행정 학보 Vol.27 No.2

Social welfare is a major issue in both developing and developed countries, including Korea. Political parties are especially struggling with the choice between universal or selective welfare but hardly any clear guidelines exist. This paper reviews universal versus selective welfare concepts and analyzes the individual perceptions of welfare policy preferences. It uses the Supplemental Welfare Perception Data (2010) and implements the ordered logit analysis to figure out the individual opinion on welfare policy. The results show that, in general, people prefer universal welfare to selective one. Especially the high income group and general households prefer universal welfare and middle income households tend to prefer selective one. These results reflect the current socioeconomic situation which is very arguable on the welfare issues in the Korean society. It also discusses the need of social consensus among income groups, tax justice, and political concerns on welfare policy. This study concludes that the government and political parties should make an effort to obtain the public’s consensus on welfare policy building, considering the individual welfare perception according to their political, financial, and economic aspects.

자산유동화와 한국노인가구를 위한 새로운 주택금융제도

조덕호(DeokHo Cho) 한국지역개발학회 2000 韓國地域開發學會誌 Vol.12 No.3

고령화 사회는 선진국의 일반적인 경향이다. 세계의 주요 선진국들은 연금제도의 확충 및 주택금융제도의 개선을 통하여 안정된 노후를 보장하고 있다. 한국의 경우도 최근 생활여건의 개선과 평균수명이 길어짐에 따라 노인 인구가 크게 증가하고 있으며 이와 같은 현상은 더욱 가속화 될 것으로 판단된다. 그렇지만 본격적인 국민연금제도가 실시된 것은 극히 최근의 일이고, 노인들을 위한 별도의 금융지원정책이 없기 때문에 자가를 소유하고 있더라고 별도의 소득이 없어서 안정된 생활을 보장받기 어렵다. 따라서 본 연구는 다른 연령계층보다 주택 및 다른 고정자산은 상대적으로 많지만 월 소득이 부족하여 안락한 생활이 어려운 노인계층에 대해서 주택자산을 월 소득으로 유동화 하여 주택에 대한 소유권을 보장하면서 일생동안 안정된 삶을 보장할 수 있는 방향을 모색하고자 한다. 이를 위해 본 연구는 한국 노인가구의 사회·경제적인 특성을 분석하고 자산유동화제도에 대한 검토를 바탕으로 정년퇴임에서 사망에 이르기까지 안정된 삶을 모색할 수 있는 역저당제도를 정립하고 이의 잠재수요를 분석하여 노인주택정책 및 복지정책의 새로운 방안을 제시하고자 한다.