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        북한의 핵무기 사용가능성에 대한 전망과 군사적 대비방향

        이상택 한국동북아학회 2022 한국동북아논총 Vol.27 No.4

        Since the first nuclear test in 2006, North Korea has been concentrating on developing its own nuclear weapons, including six nuclear tests and more than 100 ballistic missile launches. The study began with the assumption that DPRK's possession of nuclear is being analyzed to use or not nuclear weapons directly for South Korea, and ROK needs to prepare for military preparation. The study analyzed the possibility of using DPRK's nuclear weapons directly to ROK using the METT+TCW analysis tool. As a result, it was concluded that DPRK could use nuclear weapons directly for ROK. The results of this analysis include military implications such as military superiority from ROK to DPRK, increasing the possibility of communist unification, the biggest obstacles to peaceful unification, and the DPRK's nuclear issue as a national discourse. In the ROK's military preparation, it is necessary to establish the ROK's 3-axis defense system, secure the extended inhibition, change to the offensive military strategy, develop the civil defense nuclear system, and acquire the status of potential nuclear. 북한은 2006년 제1차 핵실험 이후 현재까지 6차에 걸친 핵실험과 100회가 넘는 탄도미사일 시험발사 등 자체개발한 핵을 무기화하는데 주력해 오고 있다. 이 연구는 북한의 핵보유가 기정사실화 되고 있다는 전제하에 북한이한국에 대해 핵무기를 직접 사용할 것인가에 대한 정밀한 분석과 한국의 군사적 대비책이 필요하다는 판단에서 시작되었다. 이 연구는 북한이 개발한 핵무기를 한국을 향해 직접 사용할 가능성에 대해 METT+TCW 분석도구를 사용하여분석하였다. 그 결과 북한이 한국에 대해 핵무기를 직접 사용할 가능성이 있다는 결론이 도출되었다. 이 분석결과의군사적 함의는 군사적 우위가 한국에서 북한으로 이동, 공산화 통일의 가능성 증대, 평화통일에 최대 장애요인, 북핵문제가 국민적 담론으로 부상 등이 있다. 한국의 군사적 대비방향으로는 한국형 3축 체계의 조기 구축, 확장억제력의 신뢰성 확보, 공세적인 군사전략으로의 전환, 민방위 핵대응 체계의 발전, 잠재적 핵보유국의 지위 획득 등이 필요하다.

      • 春香傳 硏究

        李相澤 空軍士官學校 1966 論文集 Vol.1 No.-

        UP TO THE PRESENT DAY, MANY STUDENTS OF KOREAN LITERATURE HAVE REPORTED ON THE STORY OF CHUN HYUNG FROM DIFFERENT POINTS OF VIEW. NONETHELESS, THE TRUE PERSONALITY OF CHUN HYANG STILL REMAINS A MYTH. AS A MATTER OF FACT, OPINIONS ARE VARIED EVEN ON A MOST PRIMARY QUESTION AS TO WHAT IS THE THEME OF THE STORY OF CHUN HYANG. SOME CONSIDER IT TO BE A REVOLT AGAINST THE CLASS SYSTEM OR TO OTHERS IT IS CHASTITY OR FREE LOVE. THERE MAY BE A NUMBER OF REASONS WHY THE CONSIDERABLE INTEREST IN THE STORY HAS NOT PRODUCED SATISFACTORY RESULTS. BUT THE MOST IMPORTANT REASON SEEMS TO BE THE LACK OF PROPER METHODOLOGY. THEREFORE, THIS PAPER BORROWS FROM PSYCHOLOGY OF PERSONALITY IN SEARCH OF A PROPER METHOD OF ANALYSIS. OF THE CHARACTER IN THE STORY, THE ONE WHOSE PERSONALITY IS ANALYZED HERE IS THE HEROINE CHUN HYUNG, BECAUSE ALL THE PROBLEMATIC ASPECTS OF THE STORY EVENTUALLY BOIL DOWN TO THOSE OF THE HEROINE HERSELF AND BECAUSE THE MAIN POINT OF INTEREST IN THIS PAPER IS IN REVEALING THE PARADOXICAL ATTITUDE OF CHUN HYANG TOWARD THE TWO MAIN MALE CHARACTERS, YI MONG RYONG AND PYON HAK DO. WHILE GLADLY SUBMITTING TO YI'S COURTING, CHUN HYANG RESOLUTELY REFUSES TO PLEASE PYON, EVEN THOUGH HE IS FROM THE SAME YANGBAN CLASS. THIS PARADOXICAL ATTITUDE OF CHUN HYANG BRINGS FORTH TWO QUESTIONS AS TO (1) WHETHER OR NOT CHUN HYANG APROVES OF THE FEUDALISTIC SOCIAL SYSTEM OF THE DAY, INCLUDEING CLASS STRUCTURE, AND (2) WHETHER OR NOT CHUN HYANG'S ATTITUDE TOWARD PYON MEANS A SACRIFICE ON HER PART FOR THE PRESERVATION OF THE DOGMATIC IDEAS OF HER TIME, NAMELY LOYALTY AND CHASTITY. AGAIN, IF CHUN HYANG IS ASSUMED TO SURRENDER TO THE DOGMATISM, IS IT NOT POSSIBLE TO LABEL HER AS A WOMAN POSSESSING A SERVILE SPIRIT AND ACCORDINGLY DECIDE THAT THE STORY OF CHUN HYANG IS MERELY A LITERARY WORK DESIGNED TO CULTIVATE DOGMATIC ETHICAL CONSCIOUSNESS? IN RELATION TO CHUN HYANG'S PARADOXICAL ATTITUDE, THE STRUCTURE OF HER PERSONALITY IS EXAMINED IN THIS PAPER FROM THE ASPECTS OF (1) TRAITS, (2) MOTIVES, AND (3) MODES OF ADJUSTMENT. CHUN HYANG HAS STRONG, AGGRESSIVE, AND POSITIVE TRAITS AS WELL AS A FATAL INFERIORITY COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH HER HUMBLE ORIGIN AND IS STRUGGLING TO ESCAPE FROM HER INFERIOR SOCIAL STATUS. IN TERMS OF MOTIVES, SHE CRAVES HIGH SOCIETY WHILE REALIZING LOVE WITH YI; IN OTHER WORDS, SHE IS PREOCCUPIED WITH AN ACHIEVEMENT NEED AND THE MOTIVE OF DEFENDING HERSELF FROM CONFLICTING OUTSIDE FORCE. AS FOR MODES OF ADJUSTMENT, SHE RESORTS TO DISPLACEMENT, RATIONALIZATION, AND COMPENSATION. AND CHUN HYANG'S CONSCIOUSNESS OF CHASTITY THAT SHE CLAIMS AT LEAST SUPERFICIALLY IS NOTHING BUT A MEANS OF REALIZING HER ACHIEVEMENT NEED, EMPLOYED FOR THE PURPOSE OF RATIONALIZING AND COMPENSATING HERSELF. FINALLY, ATTENTION IS PAID TO THE STATE OF THINGS IN THE 18TH AND 19TH CENTURIES WHICH GAVE BIRTH TO THE STORY OF CHUN HYANG. AS A RESULT, IT IS CLARIFIED THAT ALTHOUGH CONFUCIAN DOGMAS SUCH AS LOYALTY, FILIAL PIETY, AND CHASTITY WERE REVERED IN MIDDLE AND LOW CLASSES, INDIVIDUAL DESIRES TO ADVANCE TO HIGH SOCIETY THROUGH ECONOMIC WEALTH WERE STRONG ENOUGH, AND CIRCUMSTANCES OF THE TIME WERE FAVORABLE FOR THE APPEARANCE OF A CHARACTER LIKE CHUN HYANG. THUS, THE ULTIMATE VALUE OF THE STORY OF CHUN HYANG DOES NOT LIE IN ATTEMPTING TO REJECT OR CHANGE THE FEUDALISTIC ORDER AND VALUE ORIENTATION OF THE DAY, NOR IN UPHOLDING CONFUCIAN DOGMAS AT THE EXPENSE OF A YOUNG WOMAN. ITS REAL VALUE LIES IN DEPICTING THE EFFORT OF A WOMAN IN REALIZING HER ACHIEVEMENT NEED THROUGH INDEPENDENT JUDGMENT AND WILL. IN OTHER WORDS, THE STORY OF CHUN HYANG IS A WORK BASED NOT ON CONFUCIAN DOGMATISM BUT ON HUMANITY, AND CREATES THE IMAGE OF A HUMAN BEING IN GOSELLSCHAFT.

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