http://chineseinput.net/에서 pinyin(병음)방식으로 중국어를 변환할 수 있습니다.
변환된 중국어를 복사하여 사용하시면 됩니다.
시스템 다이내믹스를 활용한 원전 조직 및 인적인자 평가
안남성,곽상만,유재국 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2002 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.3 No.2
The intent of this study is to develop system dynamics model for assessment of organizational and human factors in nuclear power plant which can contribute to secure the nuclear safety. Previous studies are classified into two major approaches. One is engineering approach such as ergonomics and probability safety assessment (PSA). The other is social science approach such like sociology, organization theory and psychology. Both have contributed to find organization and human factors and to present guideline to lessen human error in NPP. But, since these methodologies assume that relationship among factors is independent they don't explain the interactions among factors or variable in NPP. To overcome these limits, we have developed system dynamics model which can show cause and effect among factors and quantity organizational and human factors. The model we developed is composed of 16 function of ob process in nuclear power, and shows interactions among various factors which affects employees' productivity and job quality. Handling variables such like degree of leadership, adjustment of number of employee, and workload in each department, user can simulate various situation in nuclear power plant in the organization side. Through simulation, user can get insight to improve safety in plant and to find managerial tools in the organization and human side. Analyzing pattern of variables, user can get knowledge of their organization structure, and understand stands of other departments or employees. Ultimately they can build learning organization to secure optimal safety in nuclear power plant.
안남성,김현실 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2002 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.3 No.1
This paper describes the forecast of wholesale price in competitive Korean electricity market using the system dynamics approach. The system dynamics concepts have been implemented with the Ithink software. This software facilitates the development of stock and flow model with information feedback. Using this model, the future wholesale electricity price can be computed hour by hour, quarterly, and yearly. This model also gives the energy planner the opportunity to create different scenarios for the future of deregulated wholesale markets in Korea. Also It will lead to increased understanding of competitive wholesale market as a complex, dynamics system. Research results show that the plant construction appeared in waves of boom and bust in Korean electricity market like real estate construction. That is, the Korea wholesale market's new power plants and the market price will appear the Boom and Bust cycle. It is very similar behavior as real estate industry. In case of consideration of DSM program, The DSM savings lead to a somewhat different timing of the booms in construction and of price spikes. But the DSM programs do not eliminated the fundamental dynamics of the boom and bust. And the wholesale price is maintained at the lower level compared to the case of without DSM program. However, the unexpected result is found that due to the lower market price, Investor make significantly less investment in new CCs, which leads to the higher wholesale price after 2010. It suggests that the DSM Policy must be implemented with the dynamics of competitive Electricity Market.
경쟁체제 하에서의 발전소 건설 시스템 다이내믹스 모델 개발
안남성 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2001 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.2 No.2
This paper describes the forecast of power plant construction in a competitive korean electricity market. In Korea, KEPCO (Korea Electric Power Corporation, fully controlled by government) was responsible for from the production of the electricity to the sale of electricity to customer. However, the generation part is separated from KEPCO and six generation companies were established for whole sale competition from April 1st, 2001. The generation companies consist of five fossil power companies and one nuclear power company in Korea at present time. Fossil power companies are scheduled to be sold to private companies including foreign investors. Nuclear power company is owned and controlled by government. The competition in generation market will start from 2003. ISO (Independence System Operator) will purchase the electricity from the power exchange market. The market price is determined by the SMP (System Marginal Price) which is decided by the balance between demand and supply of electricity in power exchange market. Under this uncertain circumstance, the energy policy planners such as government are interested to the construction of the power plant in the future. These interests are accelerated due to the recent shortage of electricity supply in California. In the competitive market, investors are no longer interested in the investment for the capital intensive, long lead time generating technologies such as nuclear and coal plants. Large nuclear and coal plants were no longer the top choices. Instead, investors in the competitive market are interested in smaller, more efficient, cheaper, cleaner technologies such as CCGT(Combined Cycle Gas Turbine). Electricity is treated as commodity in the competitive market. The investors behavior in the commodity market shows that the new investment decision is made when the market price exceeds the sum of capital cost and variable cost of the new facility and the existing facility utilization depends on the marginal cost of the facility. This investors behavior can be applied to the new investments for the power plant. Under these postulations, there is the potential for power plant construction to appear in waves causing alternating periods of over and under supply of electricity like commodity production or real estate production. A computer model was developed to study the possibility that construction will appear in waves of boom and bust in Korean electricity market. This model was constructed using System Dynamics method pioneered by Forrester (MIT, 1961) and explained in recent text by Sternman (Business Dynamics, MIT, 2000) and the recent work by Andrew Ford (Energy Policy, 1999). This model was designed based on the Energy Policy results (Ford, 1999) with parameters for loads and resources in Korea. This Korea Market Model was developed and tested in a small scale project to demonstrate the usefulness of the System Dynamics approach. Korea electricity market is isolated and not allowed to import electricity from outsides. In this model, the base load such as nuclear and large coal power plant are assumed to be user specified investment and only CCGT is selected for new investment by investors in the market. This model may be used to learn if government investment in new nuclear plants could compensate for the unstable actions of private developers. This model can be used to test the policy focused on the role of nuclear investments over time. This model also can be used to test whether the future power plant construction can meet the government targets for the mix of generating resources and to test whether to maintain stable price in the spot market.
안남성 ( Nam Sung Ahn ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2012 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.13 No.1
This paper is aiming at providing the systems thinking perspective on the collapse of the savings and loan banking system in Korea. Two causal loop diagrams are developed to conduct the analysis: The first is focusing on the structural problems included in the establishment of S&L banking in 1990s. The later is developed based on the project financing mechanism by controlling the credit standard required during the due diligence. The result of this study shows that the main cause of the collapse of the S&L banking is the structural problem connected to real estate market including the failure of regulation.