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GSADF를 이용한 서울주택시장의 다중거품에 대한 연구
김순용(Kim, Soon Yong),박헌수(Park, Heon Soo) 한국주거환경학회 2021 주거환경(한국주거환경학회논문집) Vol.19 No.1
본 연구는 한국의 서울시 25개 지역구의 다중거품의 존재여부를 검정한다. 분석시점은 2002년 12월부터 2020년 4월까지의 월별자료를 이용하였다. 본 연구는 현재가치모형을 토대로 GSADF 검정을 통해 분석한다. GSADF test 결과 서울 25개지역구 중 21개 지역구에서 2-5개의 다중거품이 존재했다. 그리고 이러한 다중거품은 평균 9개월동안 지속되었다. 강남지역과 비교해서 강북지역에서 더 많은 다중거품이 발견되었으며 거품의 지속기간 또한 강북지역이 더 높게 나타났다. 한편 시점별로 보면 2015년 이전에는 강남지역에서는 거품이 발견되지 않았으나 강북지역의 경우에는 2006년과 2012년으로 거품시작시점이 두가지로 나타났다. 그러나 2015년부터 2019년까지는 서울시 25개 모든 지역구에서 거품이 나타났다. This study aims to investigate whether the current high housing prices in 25districts of Seoul, SouthKorea, were driven by multiple housing bubbles, using monthly data from December 2002 to April 2020. Our estimates are based on the present value model and generalized sup augmented Dickey-Fuller(GASDF) test. The empirical results showed that there were 2-5 bubbles in 21 districts out of 25 districts, which lasted about 9 months on average. Compared to the Gangnam region, the Gangbuk region had more districts where multiple bubbles occurred. The duration of the bubbles differed between the two regions, with the bubbles in the Gangbuk region being longer than those in the Gangnam region. There were no bubbles in districts of Kangnam region before 2015. However, after 2015, bubbles occurred significantly in most districts in Seoul. This finding is of special interest and importance.
발전소 고압배전계통 계기용변압기 Fuse 손상 메커니즘 및 대책
김순용(Soon-Yong Kim),박진엽(Jin-Yeub Park),정필범(Pil-Bum Jeong) 대한전기학회 2020 전기학회논문지 Vol.69 No.10
Power Fuses that are installed to protect for Voltage Transformer had been burnt out by operating environments, the characteristic of fuse and aging in power plants. To analyzes the root causes of fuse failures, this study reviews the appropriateness of the fuse selection according to the VT rating and capacity, the effects of inrush current that may occur during VT power up and the possibility of resonance due to poor VT excitation characteristics. In addition, the internal condition and the blown-off melt shape of the burned-out fuse were confirmed by the industrial X-ray, the electron microscope, and the material analysis.
비관측요소모형을 통한 주택의 기대가격상승률 추정에 대한 연구 -전월세전환율을 이용하여-
김순용 ( Soon Yong Kim ) 한국부동산분석학회 2016 不動産學硏究 Vol.22 No.1
This study estimates the expected growth rate in housing prices to better understand movement in housing prices. The results show that expected growth rate follows AR (1), in addition to a random walk instead of moving in regular intervals. Also, this expected growth rate exhibits both stable and unstable components. The former could be used to estimate the expected price growth rate while the latter suggests that expectations for housing price growth move stochastically every time. In addition, changes in external conditions affecting the housing market at a particular point in time continue to affect the expected price growth rate. The expected growth rate in Korean housing prices continues its downward trend. If this low growth rate in expected prices persists and there is no significant change in the housing sales market, the housing rental market will expand. Therefore, the Korean government should create legal or institutional policies that can ensure a stable residential environment for tenants.