델파이 활용 신재생 에너지 수요예측과 장기전원 구성의 경제성 평가

구훈영(Hoonyoung Koo),민대기(Daiki Min) 대한산업공학회 2013 대한산업공학회지 Vol.39 No.3

제조업종의 지역별 산업성장 및 고용효과 분석

구훈영(Hoonyoung Koo),민대기(Daiki Min) 한국경영과학회 2017 經營 科學 Vol.34 No.1

We evaluated industry growth and employment effects of every possible pairs of 22 manufacturing sectors and 16 regions (i.e, 352 region-sectors). We used annual data of manufacturing sectors from 2008 to 2014 for the evaluation. The evaluation comprises of two steps; We first find several region-sectors that outperform others with respect to the effects of industry growth and employment, which are measured by location quotient analysis, shift share method, employment to GDP ratio and employment elasticity. In addition, cross-efficiency analysis follows to classify region-sector pairs into two sub-categories : efficient region-sectors that deserve to hold the current level of investments and inefficient region-sectors where we should consider efficiency improvements. To examine the efficiency, R&D investment, employment size, and capital investment were used as input factors and production volume, added value, changes in employment size, changes in annual salary per capita were used as output factors. For region-sector pairs that have outstanding growth and employment effects but are inefficient, we employed a CCR DEA model and analyzed how much to adjust the values of input and output factors to improve the efficiency scores. The analysis results showed that inefficiency is mainly due to several factors such as R&D investment, changes in employment size and changes in annual salary per capita.

제조업종 연구개발투자의 혁신 및 기업성과에서 공동연구개발과 무형자산의 역할

구훈영(Hoonyoung Koo) 한국산업경영시스템학회 2020 한국산업경영시스템학회지 Vol.43 No.1

The effects of R&D investment on innovation such as patents and intangible assets, and the effect on the corporate performance such as revenue and profit growth, were analyzed using path analysis. In particular, this study compared and analyzed the performances of non-cooperative R&D and cooperative R&D. The results of this study are summarized as follows. First, R&D investment has a significant impact on innovation performance. This supports the existing research results. Second, patents have a significant impact on intangible asset growth. Third, in the case of corporate groups carrying out cooperative R&D, intangible asset growth forms a significant causal relationship with revenue growth. Fourth, in case of cooperative R&D, intangible asset growth has a significant mediating effect between patent and revenue growth. Like the existing research, the results of this research support the innovation performance of R&D investment. It also supports the existing argument that the results of cooperative R&D are more favorable to increase corporate value. However, unlike the existing research, we found a path leading to increased revenue through patents and intangible assets, and confirmed that such a path is likely to be achieved through cooperative R & D rather than internal R&D.

국내 태양광 산업의 중장기 전망에 관한 연구

구훈영(Hoonyoung Koo),민대기(Daiki Min) 한국산업경영학회 2014 경영연구 Vol.29 No.2

최근 우리나라 정부에서는 RPS 제도의 시행과 함께 다양한 지원 정책을 통하여 신재생 에너지의 확산과 보급을 위한 노력을 기울이고 있으며, 태양광 발전은 여러 신재생 에너지 원 중에서도 핵심 기술로 고려되고 있다. 본 논문은 태양광 발전의 확산과 보급 수준을 평가하고 향후 바람직한 발전 방향성을 탐색하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 이를 위하여 우리나라 태양광 산업의 현황, 미래전망 그리고 바람직한 발전 방향에 관하여 46명의 전문가를 대상으로 3차에 걸친 델파이 조사를 수행하였다. 태양광 발전의 보급 수준을 전망함에 있어 전망치의 타당성 확보를 목적으로 델파이조사를 통한 전문가 패널의 정성적 전망과 함께 과거 보급 실적을 기반으로 확산모형을 이용한 정량적 예측을 수행하였다. 과거 실적을 이용한 전망은 전문가 의견 도는 정부 계획에 비하여 낮은 수준을 보이고 있는데, 델파이 조사 결과를 수요, 공급, 기술, 정책의 네 측면에서 심층 분석하여 태양광 산업의 활성화를 위한 주요 이슈와 전제 조건 등을 정리하였다. 마지막으로 전문가 전망에 비하여 미흡한 태양광 발전의 확산ㆍ보급을 활성화하기 위한 정부와 산업계의 정책적 시사점을 제시하였다. The Korean government recently established a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) policy with aims to promote renewable energy technologies (RETs). The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the projections of solar photovoltaic generations, which is the major RET in Korea, and to provide suggestions for promoting solar energy in Korea. We conducted a three-round Delphi survey with a panel of 46 experts. Furthermore, a diffusion model is employed with aims to validate the projections of the installed capacity of solar power. The diffusion model based on the past data reveals that it is hard to assure the success of the initial RPS (i.e., government plan) if we expand the solar photovoltaic generation at the same rate as the past few years. Finally, this study did an in-depth analysis of the Delphi survey and suggested some implications on the direction of the Korean government and industry.

정부출연연구기관의 기관평가에서 목표 모호성의 영향에 관한 연구

구훈영(Hoonyoung Koo) 한국산업경영시스템학회 2020 한국산업경영시스템학회지 Vol.43 No.4

In order to analyze the organizational performance of government-funded research institutes, four independent variables (organization size, organization age, evaluation system, organization location) and goal ambiguity were empirically analyzed. Although there are existing studies on institutional evaluation, which is the organizational performance of government-funded research institutes, there are differences in research in that it is an empirical analysis analyzed from the perspective of goal ambiguity and that the evaluation system, which is the specificity of institutional evaluation, is included in the analysis. As a result of the analysis, organizational location was the only independent variable that had a direct significant effect on organizational performance, and goal ambiguity showed a significant mediating effect for all independent variables. This indicates that goal ambiguity plays an important role in the organizational performance of government-funded research institutes, and to reduce this, increase the size of the organization, pay attention to establishment of the organization for organizational age, and that it is desirable to have an independent research group in the government department for the organization location. In addition, it was supported that the improvement effect of the evaluation system is proceeding in a desirable direction in terms of goal ambiguity.

RFID 도입을 위한 경제성 분석 방안에 관한 연구

구훈영(Hoonyoung Koo) 한국전자거래학회 2010 한국전자거래학회지 Vol.15 No.1

RFID 확산이 어려운 이유 중 하나는 구체적 경제성 분석 방법의 부재라 할 수 있다. 기존문헌 분석과 파급 효과가 큰 택배산업 사례를 통해 RFID 도입에 따른 비용/혜택 분석을 포함한 경제성 분석 방법을 제시하였다. RFID 적용 효과의 기대 수준을 낙관적, 보수적, 비관적으로 정의하여 분석하고, 태그 단가 등에 따른 민감도 분석을 통해 RFID 비용과 RFID 기술 기대 수준에 따른 불확실성을 반영하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 RFID 도입을 위한 의사결정에 기여할 수 있을 것으로 예상된다. The absence of a concrete method for economic analysis is one of the main reasons that the RFID is not so widespread. Through literature survey and a case study of a courier service company we propose a novel method of economic justification including cost and benefit analysis. In order to reflect the uncertainties caused by the RFID technology itself and the estimated investment cost, we propose optimistic, conservative and pessimistic estimations of benefits and a sensitivity analysis of investment costs. This paper may contribute the systematic evaluation of cost and benefit of RFID adoption.

지역 혁신기관의 효율성 분석

구훈영(Hoonyoung Koo),민대기(Daiki Min),이재호(Jaeho Lee) 한국산업경영학회 2016 經營硏究 Vol.31 No.1

지역 혁신기관의 정책적 목표인 지역 산업 활성화를 위한 사업실적과 자립적 운영을 위한 재정적 성과에 대응하여 효율성을 평가하고 비교, 분석하였다. 이를 통해 연구개발, 기업지원, 인력양성등과 같이 지역 산업 활성화를 위한 활동과 함께 지역 혁신기관이 자립적 운영을 위한 재정적 성과를 동시에 확보하고 있는지를 확인하고자 하였다. 효율성 평가를 위해 자료포락분석(DEA; Data Envelope Analysis)을 사용하였으며, 동일한 투입 요소인 정부와 지자체의 투자금액과 상시고용인 원에 대해 지역 산업 활성화 지표와 재정 자립도 지표로 산출 요소를 구분하여 두 개의 DEA 모형을 구성하였다. 효율성 분석 결과, 1) 지역 산업 활성화와 재정 자립도 간의 상관성은 통계적으로 유의하지 않았으며, 2) 지자체 연구소는 지역 산업 활성화 측면에서 특화센터에 비해 효율성이 유의하게 높으며, 3) 재정 자립도 측면에서는 테크노파크 내 특화센터가 유의하게 우수한 효율성을나타냈다. 또한, 4) 광역권과 시도권으로 지역 규모를 고려한 비교에서는 효율성의 차이가 유의하지 않았으며, 클러스터 형성기에서 우려하였던 충청･영남권과 호남･강원･제주권의 효율성 격차는 유의하지 않아 지역 클러스터 간 편차는 심화되지 않은 것을 확인하였다. 이를 통해 지자체연구소의 경우 재정 자립을 위한 정책적 지원과 평가 체계의 조정을, 특화센터의 경우 테크노파크의 관리 효율성과 시너지 활용을 정책적 시사점으로 제시하였다. The purpose of this study is to investigate the efficiency of 74 local innovation institutes in Korea. We used an input-oriented data envelope analysis (DEA) model to evaluate the efficiency of each institute. The results show that 1) local government institutes are more efficient in terms of revitalization activities, 2) local innovation centers established in techno-park are superior in terms of financial self-reliance. Thus, supporting policies should be reconsidered to enhance the financial dependence of local government institutes. For long-term survival of local innovation centers, centralization into the techno-park is a dominant policy to be more efficient in terms of local industrial revitalization and financial self-reliance.

기업 규모 및 수출입 수준에 따른 제조업종별 연구개발투자의 고용 및 성장성 분석

구훈영(Hoonyoung Koo) 한국산업경영시스템학회 2019 한국산업경영시스템학회지 Vol.42 No.2

The growth and employment effects of R&D investment were analyzed according to business size, export value and manufacturing sectors so as to suggest improvement directions for effective industry policies. The effect of R&D investment was considered simultaneously from the two perspectives of growth and employment effect, and the causality analysis was carried out by using a path analysis. The result of the path analysis confirmed significant differences in the growth effect of R&D investment depending on business size. However, the effect of increasing employment was difficult to obtain statistically significant results for any various combinations of business size and export value. This is a mixture of directions for the effects of R&D investment on employment, which could be due to the failure to consider appropriate time lags between investment and effect. Efficiency analysis by industry sectors confirmed significant differences in efficiency depending on business size, but differences depending on export value were difficult to identify. In order to derive improvement policy by industry sector according to business size and export value, the direction of selective support policy and universal support policy was derived for six industry groups by combining the return to scale in the efficiency analysis and R&D concentration. Hirschman-Herfindahl index is used for calculating R&D concentration.

확산이론 관점에서 로지스틱 모형과 Bass 모형의 비교

홍정식(Jungsik Hong),구훈영(Hoonyoung Koo) 한국경영과학회 2012 韓國經營科學會誌 Vol.37 No.2

The logistic model and the Bass model have diverse names and formulae in diffusion theory. This diversity makes users or readers confused while it also contributes to the flexibility of modeling. The method of handling the integration constant, which is generated in process of deriving the closed form solution of the differential equation for a diffusion model, results in two different "actual" models. We rename the actual four models and propose the usage of the models with respect to the purpose of model applications. The application purpose would be the explanation of historical diffusion pattern or the forecasting of future demand. Empirical validation with 86 historical diffusion data shows that misuse of the models can draw improper conclusions for the explanation of historical diffusion pattern.

병원 외래환자의 예약부도 요인

민대기(Daiki Min),구훈영(Hoonyoung Koo) 한국전자거래학회 2017 한국전자거래학회지 Vol.22 No.1

병원 진료의 효율성과 진료 품질의 극대화를 위해 진료예약을 시행하고 있다. 그러나 예약일에 방문하지 않는 예약부도로 인해 의료서비스 자원이 낭비되고 다른 환자의 진료기회를 박탈하는 등 현대 병원 운영에서 주요한 이슈의 하나로 떠오르고 있다. 이러한 예약부도의 원인을 분석하기 위해 미국의 한 보훈병원의 5만 건 진료예약 데이터를 대상으로 예약부도 요인의 중요도와 유의성을 검정하였다. 랜덤 포레스트와 로지스틱 회귀분석 결과, 예약대기시간, 방문율, 내원 거리, 예약부도율, 환자 나이, 중증도, 질병의 복합도, 만성통증, 우울증, 약물의존 등이 주요한 원인으로 파악되었다. 예약대기시간과 방문율, 내원거리, 예약부도율은 SMS 사전 통지를 강화하고 사후 전화 상담을 통해 점진적으로 개선 가능할 것으로 판단되며 기타 요인에 대해서는 환자 그룹별로 차별화된 대응방안을 구성하는 것을 고려해 볼 수 있다. In order to maximize the efficiency and the quality of care in a hospital, hospitals in general operate by appointments. Patient no-shows or missed appointments waste the time of staffs who prepare for appointments, deprive patients of needed care, and increase burden on clinic capacity. The purpose of this study is to examine the importance and significance of factors that affect patient no-shows. The actual data of 50,000 outpatient appointments is compiled and analyzed from a VAMC in the United States with aims to identify the factors that contribute to outpatient no-shows and to draw meaningful implications. Random forest along with logistic regression analysis identify the factors affecting no-shows; appointment leadtime, show-up rate, travel distance, no-show rate in previous period, patient age, severity, complexity of disease, chronic pain, depression, drug dependence. The appointment leadtime, show-up rate, travel distance and previous no-show rate can be improved by enhancing SMS pre-notification and by improving afterwards telephone counseling. For other factors, it needs to study on the service differentiation with the characteristics of each patient group.