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제약적 NLS 방법을 이용한 출시 초기 신제품의 중장기 수요 예측 방안
홍정식(Jungsik Hong),구훈영(Hoonyoung Koo) 한국경영과학회 2013 韓國經營科學會誌 Vol.38 No.1
A long-term forecasting method for a new product in early stage of diffusion is proposed. The method includes a constrained non-linear least square estimation with the logistic diffusion model. The constraints would be critical market informations such as market potential, peak point, and take-off. Findings on 20 cases having almost full life cycle are that (ⅰ) combining any market information improves the forecasting accuracy, (ⅱ) market potential is the most stable information, and (ⅲ) peak point and take-off information have negative effect in case of overestimation.
확산이론 관점에서 로지스틱 모형과 Bass 모형의 비교
홍정식(Jungsik Hong),구훈영(Hoonyoung Koo) 한국경영과학회 2012 韓國經營科學會誌 Vol.37 No.2
The logistic model and the Bass model have diverse names and formulae in diffusion theory. This diversity makes users or readers confused while it also contributes to the flexibility of modeling. The method of handling the integration constant, which is generated in process of deriving the closed form solution of the differential equation for a diffusion model, results in two different "actual" models. We rename the actual four models and propose the usage of the models with respect to the purpose of model applications. The application purpose would be the explanation of historical diffusion pattern or the forecasting of future demand. Empirical validation with 86 historical diffusion data shows that misuse of the models can draw improper conclusions for the explanation of historical diffusion pattern.
한국과 미국에 있어 영화 수익관련 통계량과 확산 현상의 비교분석
김태구(Taegu Kim),홍정식(Jungsik Hong) 한국경영과학회 2015 經營 科學 Vol.32 No.1
Motion picture industry in Korea has been growing constantly and aroused various kinds of research attention. Particularly, the introduction of official box-office database service brought quantitative studies. However, approaches based on diffusion models have been rarely found with domestic film markets. In addition to the fundamental statistical review on Korea and US film markets, we applied a diffusion model to daily box-office revenue. Unlike conventional preference of Gamma distribution on the film markets, estimation results proved that BMIC can also explain the trend of daily revenue successfully. The comparison with BMIC showed that there is a distinctive difference in diffusion patterns of Korea and US film markets. Generally, word-of-mouth effect appeared more significant in Korea.