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교일양,정희주,김명길,안병일,엄창득 한국농업경제학회 2023 農業經濟硏究 Vol.64 No.3
This study aims to examine the carbon substitution effect in Korea's major carbon-intensive industry, the construction industry. To accomplish this, we estimate the factor demand functions for the building construction and maintenance industry as well as the civil construction industry using the SUR model. Subsequently, we conduct a simulation analysis to assess the carbon substitution effect resulting from the replacement of wood with other factor inputs in each industry. The data utilized in this study are gathered from the Bank of Korea's Input-Output table and the Bank of Korea's producer price index. The estimated results of the factor demand functions reveal a substitutive relationship between wood and wood products with processed metal products within the construction industry. The simulation analysis indicates that an 8.75% increase in demand for wood and wood products within the construction industry can lead to the most significant reduction in total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the industry, amounting to 277.52 thousand tons. This study is the first to quantify carbon substitution effects from an economic perspective, thereby contributing to providing insights for governments in formulating policies related to carbon neutrality.
교일양,안병일 한국농업경제학회 2022 農業經濟硏究 Vol.63 No.2
We examine the effect of the US-China trade war on the international feed grain futures markets and China’s pork market by using the univariate GARCH model with considering the structural breaks in each market. Granger causality test and the DCC-GARCH model are applied to examine the changes in the relationship between the international feed grain futures market and China’s pork market in the presence of the trade war. The analytical results suggest that the trade war has a significant negative effect on the volatility of international soybean futures price, but it exacerbated volatility in Chinese pork prices. Our empirical results also confirm that a stable causality existed between international soybean futures market and China’s pork market in the pre-trade war period, but it was disrupted after the trade war broke out.
Impacts of African Swine Fever on Structural Change in China’s Meat Demand
교일양,안병일 한국농업경제학회 2022 農業經濟硏究 Vol.63 No.3
In 2018, African Swine Fever (ASF) first broke out in China and had a noticeable effect on China’s pork market and the entire meat market. This paper models China’s meat market, including pork, beef, mutton, and poultry, and examines how the outbreak of ASF impacts structural changes in China’s meat demand. We use the inverse almost ideal demand system (IAIDS) model and employ province-level meat consumption and price data to form the panel data set of 30 provinces of China from 2015 to 2020. Our results indicate that ASF has a significant impact on the demand for pork, poultry, and mutton. Based on the estimated price flexibilities and scale flexibilities, we find that the outbreak of ASF impacts structural change in China’s meat demand. Furthermore, our results show the heterogeneity of the ASF’s effects across different provinces in China.
교일양(Yiyang Qiao),강민성(Minseong Kang),안병일(Byeong-il Ahn) 한국농식품정책학회 2022 한국농식품정책학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2022 No.8
The price fluctuation of vegetables is generally greater than other agricultural products and it constrains consumers' planned consumption and farmers' stable income. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the factors that affect vegetable price fluctuations and formulate effective policies to stabilize prices. In order to examine the factors affecting the fluctuation of vegetable prices, this paper used a structural model constructed by demand, supply, import and export functions to decompose price variance. We select cabbage, radish, dried red pepper, garlic and onion as research objects. The results indicate that production has a relatively large impact on price fluctuations while demand, imports and exports play small roles except for dried red pepper and onion. Our results provide policy implications for formulating vegetable price stabilization strategies.
시점 간 순사육두수 변화를 고려한 한우의 사육두수 전망 모형 분석
임희선,교일양,강전상,강민성,안병일 한국농식품정책학회 2022 농업경영정책연구 Vol.49 No.2
Decision-making on the number of slaughtered heads considering the change in the number of breeding heads is an important issue for Hanwoo-breeding farmers. While previous studies treat breeding heads of Hanwoo in terms of supply function, this study differs in the way that it develops a model for breeding heads that incorporate both supply and demand sides. The number of cattle raised is forecasted using the estimates of slaughtered heads, the estimates of breeding cattle under one year of age, and the actual number of breeding cattle in the previous period. The result of the precision of the model for estimating the number of cattle raised indicates that the accuracy of the model is very high.
남경수,교일양,심환희,안병일 한국농촌경제연구원 2020 농촌경제 Vol.43 No.2
This study analyzes social welfare changes as a result of improving the GAP certification standards by taking into consideration both the consumer and producer sides of agricultural products. In the analysis, we set hypotheses for improving the GAP certification standards in three directions, including promoting consumption, pursuing internationalization, and accelerating popularization. Also, we calculated social welfare changes following each scenario of the improvement of GAP certification standards. Our analysis shows that social welfare associated with all agricultural products is likely to increase along with enhanced GAP certification standards. 본 연구에서는 소비자 측면과 생산자 측면을 동시에 고려하여 GAP 인증 기준 개편 시나리오를 보급활성화, 소비촉진, 국제화 추구 등으로 설정하였다. 각 개편 방향 시나리오에 따라 식량작물, 과일류, 과채류, 채소류로 구분하여 GAP 인증기준 개편에 따른 사회후생 변화를 분석한 결과, 식량작물에 대한 GAP 인증 개편은 대부분의 사나리오에서 사회후생이 증가하는 것으로 나타났으나, 보급 활성화로 인한 사회후생증가는 크지 않았다. 과채류, 채소류 그리고 과일류는 소비 촉진 또는 국제화 추구와 같이 인증 기준을 강화하는 것이 사회후생을 증가시키는 방향인 것으로 나타났다. 이와 같은 분석 결과는 중장기적으로 GAP 인증 기준을 강화하여 소비자의 신뢰를 확보하는 것이 GAP 인증제도 활성화의 바람직한 방향이라는 점을 시사한다.
친환경 어업의 경제적 가치 평가:가상가치평가법을 적용하여
남경수 ( Nam Kyung-soo ),교일양 ( Qiao Yi-yang ),마창모 ( Ma Chang-mo ),안병일 ( Ahn Byeong-il ) 한국식품유통학회 2021 食品流通硏究 Vol.38 No.1
The primary purpose of this study is to present the importance and necessity of the environmentally-friendly fishery. We estimates the economic value by dividing the environmental conservation functions of environmentally-friendly fishery into maintaining bio-diversity, improving the quality of water, and reducing greenhouse gas. The estimations are implemented by contingent valuation method(CVM). The WTP is estimated to be 2,219 won for maintaining bio-diversity, 2,342 won for improving the quality of water, and 2,474 won for reducing the greenhouse gas. For the group of people who are well aware of these functions, the amount of WTP is estimated to be 400 to 1,200 won higher than the other group.
GAP인증 농산물에 대한 소비자의 지불의사와 생산자의 수용의사 비교
남경수(Kyungsoo Nam),교일양(Yiyang Qiao),주준형(Joonhyung Joo),김세리(Se-Ri Kim),김양숙(Yangsuk Kim),안병일(Byeong-il Ahn) 한국농식품정책학회 2020 농업경영정책연구 Vol.47 No.3
This study estimates the producer’s willingness to accept (WTA) and consumer’s willingness to pay (WTP) for GAP-certified agricultural products. We apply contingent valuation method (CVM) with producer and consumer survey data. The results suggest that the producer’s willingness to accept is turned out to be the lowest for fruits followed by grains and vegetables. On the other hand, the consumer’s willingness to pay turns out to be relatively higher in grains and fruits than fruit-vegetables and vegetables. Accordingly, the difference between WTP and WTA is the largest in fruits and the smallest in vegetables. The order of this difference is exactly the same as the GAP certification rate for each category of agricultural product. Therefore, in order to increase the rate of GAP certification, the government needs to improve consumers’ awareness and reliability regarding GAP certification. Concurrently, the production side support plan should be implemented.
지니계수 분해를 이용한 공적 보조금이 임가소득불평등에 미치는 영향 분석
남경수(Kyungsoo Nam),교일양(Yiyang Qiao),강전상(Jeon-sang Kang),강민성(Minseong Kang),안병일(Byeong-il Ahn) 한국농식품정책학회 2021 농업경영정책연구 Vol.48 No.3
In this study, the Gini coefficient is estimated and decomposed within as well as between the forest industries according to income components. Analytical results indicate that the average Gini coefficient for the entire sample from 2009 to 2018 is 0.478 which can be interpreted that a high level of inequality in the forestry household income exists. Forestry investment subsidies are proven to play a vital role in alleviating income inequality for forestry households. This study suggests that government needs to increase the public forestry subsidies in order to mitigate the high level of income inequality.