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21st-Century Northeast Asian Order and America’s Choice
김의곤 인하대학교 국제관계연구소 2016 Pacific Focus Vol.31 No.2
The emerging new order in Northeast Asia in the 21st century is attributable to a few factors. First, the relative decline of the United States as the hegemonic power contributes to it. Second, the rise of China is also responsible. Buttressed by remarkable economic growth over the past 20 plus years, China is eager to regain its traditional influence and status as the regional hegemon. Third, the relative decline of Japan leads to Northeast Asian power restructuring. Fourth, North Korea is another major factor leading to instability in Northeast Asia. Finally, the rise of South Korea is also responsible for Northeast Asian power restructuring. In the intermediate and long-run, the US policy toward Northeast Asia will be centered on China, and its China policy will be characterized by engagement and/or hard balancing. To pursue the goal, the United States should further develop close ties with its allies, such as South Korea and Japan, and pursue improved relations with Vietnam and the Philippines. At the same time, the United States should persuade China that cooperating with its neighboring countries would be in its intermediate and long-term interests. In other words, the United States should firmly and persistently pursue the policy of the “Asianization of China.”
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김의곤 연세대학교 동서문제연구원 2001 동서연구 Vol.13 No.1
국제환경문제는 발생원인에 대한 체계적 연구와 논의가 부족할 뿐만 아니라 문제 해결에 관련된 각 국가들의 책임 범위 및 비용분담에 대한 국가간 현격한 의견 불일치를 보이고 있다. 국제환경문제는 국가간 협력과 갈등의 소지를 모두 포함하고 있다. 환경문제는 냉전이 종식된 후 국제 정치경제에서 보이는 국가간 협력과 갈등의 대표적인 사례가 되고 있으며, 21세기 세계평화와 국가안보를 마련하기 위한 시금석이 되고 있다. 따라서 21세기 국가들은 국제환경문제에 관련된 문제의 본질을 파악하고 공동으로 해결하기 위한 국제기구를 수립하고, 이와 더불어 비용분담에 대한 논의와 협상을 충분히 해나가야 할 것이다. 이론적 측면에서 볼 때, 국제환경문제는 냉전종식 후 활발하게 전개되고 있는 현실주의와 자유주의간의 “이론적 유용성”(Theoretical validity) 논쟁을 가시화 할 것으로 보인다. 환경문제에 대하여 현실주의자들은 기본적으로 가치의 획득(부정적가치의 획득)을 위한 무정부 상태로 규정 하고 있으며, 따라서 현실주의가 국제환경 문제를 설명할 수 있는 틀을 제시한다고 주장한다. 반면에 신자유주의자들은 환경은 집단재 혹은 공동재이며, 이것의 생산과 소비는 국가간 협력을 필요로 하는 사항이기 때문에 이 문제를 해결하기 위해서는 국제기구를 통해서만 가능하다는 입장을 보이고 있다. 결국 국제환경문제에 대한 보다 심도 있는 연구는 현실주의와 신자유제도주의간의 이론적 갈등을 해소하고, 두 이론을 동시에 포용할 수 있는 새로운 이론의 모색을 시작하는 계기를 마련해 줄 것이다.
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Northeast Asians Energy Cooperation The Irkutsk Pipeline Project
김의곤 인하대학교 국제관계연구소 2004 Pacific Focus Vol.19 No.2
Northeast Asia is a cluster of countries with wide differences in political systems, stages of economic development, levels of technology, and natural resource endowments. In addition, infrastructures of national economies are mutually complementary: Japan and Korea have capital and technology on the one hand and Russia and China enjoy abundant resources and cheap labor. Yet many socio‐political elements have so far barred active economic cooperation among Northeast Asian national economies from becoming a reality, such as, North Korean nuclear issues, different ideologies, unstable political systems, and anti‐Japanese sentiments. The Irkutsk Pipeline Projects can be a litmus test for the future economic cooperation in the region. Market forces in Russia, Japan, South Korea and China increasingly tend to jump national boundaries and to escape political control, seeking for economic profits, whereas socio‐political factors have tendency to restrict and channel the economic activities. Thus, problems of the Irkutsk Pipeline Projects lie in how and where those positive and negative factors are reconciled.
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Dawning of a New Horizon: Recent Trends in East Asian Studies
김의곤 인하대학교 국제관계연구소 2008 Pacific Focus Vol.23 No.1
Current tendencies in East Asian politics continue to be influenced by several structural factors in the region in the foreseeable future. The first factor is the ideological shift in regional politics. The second factor is a power shift in the region marked by the relative decline of U.S. dominance with a concomitant rise in the influence of China, Russia, and Japan. The third factor is the development of civil society in East Asia with the surge of democratization occurring since the late 1980s. Finally, it is important to note that increasing numbers of political scientists with diverse backgrounds such as social minorities like women and disparate ethnic groups have brought various research agendas into the field breaking the classical issue hierarchy in East Asian studies. Given the interplay of these factors, East Asian relations will continue to be dynamic and unpredictable, thus, challenging scholars with interesting yet still under-researched subjects that need to be thoroughly explored and analyzed.
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Rising China and Turbulent East Asia: Asianization of China?
김의곤 인하대학교 국제관계연구소 2014 Pacific Focus Vol.29 No.1
The international order in East Asia has been anchored on four pillars. The first pillar is the 1952 San Francisco peace treaty between the United States and Japan. The US–Japan mutual defense treaty was signed and Japan became demilitarized and its foreign policy was oriented toward the United States. Japan adopted the “peace” constitution. The second is the US–China Shanghai Communiqué of 1972. In this document, Nixon and Mao agreed that neither of their countries nor any power should seek hegemony in the Asia–Pacific region. The third pillar is the 1972 Sino–Japanese Joint Declaration. China recognized the US–Japan military alliance and Japan, in turn, recognized China as the sole legitimate government. The last is the 1965 ROK–Japan treaty to normalize bilateral relations. Japan recognized the ROK as the sole legitimate government representing the Korean people and nullified the treaties that led to Japan’s forceful annexation of Korea in 1910. In the 2010s, tensions and disputes between the United States and China and between China and Japan are undermining the four pillars of order. The United States, China, and Japan are now engaged in a dangerous power game to create a new international order in this turbulent region. China’s foreign policy toward East Asia will be predicated on three strategies. China will resort to soft balancing in dealing with the United States, unilateralism with Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam, and multilateralism vis-à-vis the remaining countries in East Asia. “The Asianization of China” would be a solution for future peace and prosperity in this region.
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