신흥국가의 인플레이션 타게팅 도입의 장·단기 효과

차혜경(Hye-Kyung Cha),조성일(Sung-il Cho) 한국무역연구원 2015 무역연구 Vol.11 No.6

Inflation targeting (IT) policy is a kind of monetary policy that is to control inflation rate directly without any other intermediate targets. It is widely reported by previous studies that IT policy is effective to decrease inflation rate, especially more powerful on emerging economies than on advanced economies. Whereas there still remains question: advanced economies' monetary circumstance is all alike, but each emerging economies' circumstance differs in its own way. In this paper regional asymmetric effect of IT policy among the emerging economies is focused. The inflationary effect of IT policy is empirically estimated with the use of a balanced panel of 12 emerging economies from 1980 to 2013. To investigate regional asymmetry, emerging economies are divided into two groups - Latin American countries and non-Latin American countries. The period of IT adoption and regional difference of countries are treated by dummy-variables. Dynamic panel model of partial adjustment regression is applied as an econometric methodology and long-run effect as well as short-run effect are estimated and tested. Empirical results indicate that the inflationary effect of IT is more powerful in the long-run and on Latin America. Such an econometric results imply that the adoption of IT policy decrease expectation of inflation rate in the long-run in Latin American countries which had been exposed to more inflationary circumstance.

금융세계화의 비대칭적 구조와 ‘금융적 종속’: 한국과 미국을 중심으로

윤종희 비판사회학회 2019 경제와 사회 Vol.- No.122

In the meantime, Marxism and the world-system theory have regarded the chronic trade deficit and foreign debt of the. semi) periphery economy as a sign of economic dependency. Emerging economies, however, have accumulated net foreign assets through continuous trade surplus in the 21st century. The resulting global imbalance is not only a major factor in the financial crisis of 2007-2009, but also raises the question of the existing concept of ‘economic dependency’. In this situation, some suggest a new ‘financial subordination’(or subordinate financialization). The cost of stockpiling the reserve assets of emerging economies far exceeds operating revenues, and their economic wealth(value) is transferred to the advanced economies(‘core’). However, they overlook the fact that the function of reserve assets has changed since the late 1990s, and as a result, they can not demonstrate a level of value transfer that is defined as “financial subordination”. This study analyzes the asymmetry of financial globalization in Korea and the United States in order to clarify the precise mechanism of ‘financial subordination’ of emerging economies. Emerging economies. Korea) and advanced economies. USA) show a big difference in the composition of external liabilities as well as external assets including reserve assets. Korea’s external assets are largely composed of the relatively less profitable and secure bonds, while US foreign assets are highly profitable stocks. As a result, the United States gets a positive return on investment despite negative net external assets, while Korea has the opposite result. In the end, the financial system of U.S. functions as a “venture capitalist in the world” that invests in emerging economies by depositing funds from emerging economies. In this process, the value produced in the emerging economies is transferred to the core. 그동안 마르크스주의와 세계체계론은 (반)주변부 경제의 만성적인 무역적자와 외채 누적을 경제적 종속의 표지로 간주했다. 그런데 21세기부터 신흥경제는 지속적인 무역 흑자를 통해 양(+)의 순 대외자산을 축적한다. 그로 인한 글로벌 불균형은 2007∼ 2009년의 금융위기의 주요인으로 지목될 뿐만 아니라 기존의 경제적 종속 개념에 대 해 회의를 불러일으킨다. 이에 따라 일각에서는 ‘금융적 종속’ 개념을 제시한다. 신흥경 제의 준비자산을 비축하는 데 소요되는 비용이 그것의 운용수익을 크게 초과하고, 그만 큼 가치가 중심부 경제로 이전된다는 것이다. 그러나 이들은 1990년대 후반 외환위기 를 거치면서 준비자산의 기능이 변모했다는 사실을 간과한다. 또 ‘금융적 종속’으로 규 정할 수준의 가치 이전을 실증하지 못한다. 본 연구는 신흥경제의 ‘금융적 종속’의 메커 니즘을 규명하기 위해 한국과 미국을 대상으로 금융세계화의 비대칭성을 분석한다. 신 흥경제(한국)와 중심부 경제(미국)는 준비자산을 포함한 대외자산 전체와 대외부채의 구성에서 큰 차이를 보인다. 한국의 대외자산은 상대적으로 수익성이 낮고 안전한 채권 이 큰 비중을 차지하는 반면, 미국의 대외자산은 수익성이 높은 주식이 큰 비중을 차지 한다. 그 결과 미국은 음(-)의 순 대외자산에도 불구하고 양의 투자수익을 획득하는 반 면, 한국은 이와 정반대의 결과를 보인다. 결국 중심부의 금융시스템은 신흥경제의 자 금을 예치해 수익성이 높은 곳에 투자하는 ‘세계의 벤처자본가’로서 기능하고, 이 과정 에서 신흥경제의 가치가 중심부로 이전된다.

Recent Issues in Emerging-economies Macroeconomics

윤택 한국국제경제학회 2013 International Economic Journal Vol.27 No.2

In this paper, we summarize the recent advancement of emerging-economies macroeconomics. We begin with stylized facts and models of real business-cycles (RBCs) for emerging-market countries and then move onto the discussion of various issues associated with overborrowings and sovereign debts. The common feature of these models is that their analysis is mainly focused on the framework of RBC models for small open economies combined with financial frictions. We also discuss nominal features of emerging economies that are associated with the behavior of nominal exchange rate and foreign reserves observed during the recent global financial crisis, as well as the practice and impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy measures. We also present some extensions of existing emerging-economies models that allow for the significant role of conventional monetary and fiscal policies. Our results can be summarized as follows. First, the canonical specification of recent models with pecuniary externalities is modified to allow for channels through which conventional monetary and fiscal policies can affect the degree of pecuniary externalities. Second, we attempt to explain the behavior of nominal exchange rate ‘going up elevators and coming down stairs’ shown in emerging economies during periods of zero lower bounds on the short-term nominal interest rate. Third, we modify a prototypical model of sovereign debt to show the negative correlation between the maturity of foreign debt and the accumulation of foreign reserves when the level of foreign debt is substantially high.

신흥국가 해외직접투자의 이론적 설명: 기존 연구의 비판적 고찰과 새로운 연구방향의 모색

나원찬 한국외국어대학교 국제지역연구센터 2008 국제지역연구 Vol.11 No.4

Companies from emerging economies including BRICs have recently increased their outward foreign direct investment (FDI) as the internal and external business environment have changed. They have made active FDI both for exploiting their competitive advantages and for seeking complementary assets and knowledge in foreign markets. Compared with FDI by developed country companies, however, theoretical explanations of FDI by emerging economy firms have been relatively limited. This paper attempted to evaluate the extant theories on FDI determinants in term of their applicability to the recent surge of FDI from emerging economies and to present future research directions for establishing a better theoretical framework to explain this newer, but ever increasing, phenomenon in the international business area. 최근 기업의 내외부의 여건변화에 따라 중국을 비롯한 신흥국가 (emerging economies) 기업들이 해외직접투자를 크게 확대하고 있는데, 해외직접투자는 크게 자신들이 가지고 있는 경쟁우위를 활용하기 위한 자산활용형 투자와 자신들의 부족한 경쟁우위를 보완하거나 강화하기 위한 자산증식형 투자로 나눌 수 있다. 뚜렷한 경쟁우위를 가지고 해외로 진출하는 선진국의 다국적기업들과는 달리, 신흥국가 기업들의 해외직접투자에 대한 이론적 설명은 매우 제한된 범위 내에서만 이루어졌다. 이 논문은 제품수명주기이론의 연장, 기술변화의 국지화이론, 절충패러다임, 투자발달경로, 불균형이론, LLL (linkage, leverage & learning) 프레임워크 등과 같은 전통적인 선진국의 해외직접투자 이론과 비전통적인 투자에 관한 기존의 관련 이론들이 최근의 신흥국가 기업들의 해외직접투자를 설명하는데 있어서 어느 정도의 적용가능성이 있는지 평가하여 그 한계점을 분석하고 그 결과를 바탕으로 더욱 유력한 이론의 정립을 위한 바람직한 연구방향을 제시하고자 하는 것을 주요한 내용으로 한다.

Product Innovation through International Joint Venture in Emerging Markets: A Focus on the Role of Joint Market Orientation

오한모 한국무역연구원 2014 무역연구 Vol.10 No.4

Product innovation has been viewed as an engine of economic growth for society. It is often considered a driver of competitive advantage for firms in that it enables the firms to differentiate themselves from their competitors, improve on existing products’ ability to fulfill customer needs, and reduce costs. Nonetheless, IJVs do not always achieve product innovation in emerging economies. Many of the IJVs fail. Even though some studies have investigated IJVs between firms from developed economies, research on how MNCs can use their local partners to enhance their innovation outcomes has received little attention. Furthermore, although an extensive body of research on strategic partnerships and their effects on innovation takes the institutional background for granted, it is unclear to apply previous findings to emerging economies. The current study attempts to find what makes IJVs succeed in product innovation in emerging economies, such as China and India. The study will focus on providing insights of how MNCs succeed in product innovation in emerging economies.

Product Innovation through International Joint Venture in Emerging Markets: A Focus on the Role of Joint Market Orientation

Han-Mo Oh 한국무역연구원 2014 貿易 硏究 Vol.10 No.4

Product innovation has been viewed as an engine of economic growth for society. It is often considered a driver of competitive advantage for firms in that it enables the firms to differentiate themselves from their competitors, improve on existing products’ ability to fulfill customer needs, and reduce costs. Nonetheless, IJVs do not always achieve product innovation in emerging economies. Many of the IJVs fail. Even though some studies have investigated IJVs between firms from developed economies, research on how MNCs can use their local partners to enhance their innovation outcomes has received little attention. Furthermore, although an extensive body of research on strategic partnerships and their effects on innovation takes the institutional background for granted, it is unclear to apply previous findings to emerging economies. The current study attempts to find what makes IJVs succeed in product innovation in emerging economies, such as China and India. The study will focus on providing insights of how MNCs succeed in product innovation in emerging economies.

How do Institutions Matter for the Internationalization of Emerging Economy Firms? : Evidence from China

Shu-Feng Xiao 한국무역연구원 2015 무역연구 Vol.11 No.6

Research proposes that institutions matter in shaping firm strategic behavior as well as the performance implications of such behavior but is less forthcoming with respect to how they matter especially during the process of internationalization of emerging-economy firms. We build on the institution-based view to propose that emerging-economy firms often involves significant interplays with institutional rules as well as the changes of such rules when going international. We argue that the institutions in emerging economies play a central role in shaping the international expansion and the performance outcomes of such strategic behavior. In other words, institutions may shape and determine directly how emerging-economy firms formulate and implement strategies that create a competitive advantage. We test the proposed hypotheses using a comprehensive longitudinal data of internationalizing firms from China and offer important contributions and insights to better understand how institutions matter in explaining the internationalization strategy and performance of emerging-economy firms.

How do Institutions Matter for the Internationalization of Emerging Economy Firms?

Shu-Feng (Simon) Xiaoa 한국무역연구원 2015 貿易 硏究 Vol.11 No.6

Research proposes that institutions matter in shaping firm strategic behavior as well as the performance implications of such behavior but is less forthcoming with respect to how they matter especially during the process of internationalization of emerging-economy firms. We build on the institution-based view to propose that emerging-economy firms often involves significant interplays with institutional rules as well as the changes of such rules when going international. We argue that the institutions in emerging economies play a central role in shaping the international expansion and the performance outcomes of such strategic behavior. In other words, institutions may shape and determine directly how emerging-economy firms formulate and implement strategies that create a competitive advantage. We test the proposed hypotheses using a comprehensive longitudinal data of internationalizing firms from China and offer important contributions and insights to better understand how institutions matter in explaining the internationalization strategy and performance of emerging-economy firms.

Defending an Emerging Economy from Global Financial Turbulences

이종은 한국국제금융학회 2014 국제금융연구 Vol.4 No.1

The purpose of this article is to go back to basics of the international balance of payments to take a closer look at the roles of international reserves and related factors in the exchange rate managements of an emerging economy. It is a timely attempt because; (1) international reserves are playing a crisis resolution role at least in the practical terms. (2) liquidity changes from external factors are particularly important since the US quantitative easing during the Great Recession. (3) central banks’ balance sheets have expanded in emerging economies since the post-Asian Crisis period. We extend the model from Turnovsky(1985) to capture the international monetary aspects of emerging economies. Emerging economies with international reserves and their own sterilization measures are found to be able to partially offset external factors.

Is Time Ripe for a Currency Union in Emerging East Asia?: The Role of Monetary Stabilization

( Marcelo Sanchez ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 (구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2006 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.21 No.4

This paper assesses the prospects for monetary integration between Emerging East Asian (EEA) economies. We develop a simple analytical framework for currency unions of small open economies. The empirical analysis looks at a number of supply-side characteristics of EEA countries highlighted by the model, distinguishing between aggregate and tradable sector structural features. Moreover, we discuss the evidence on the cross-country correlation of disturbances hitting the region. Our study indicates that, at present, EEA economies exhibit a high degree of cross-country supply diversity, while there is no compelling evidence that shocks are highly correlated across the region.