선박 대형화에 따른 선박 제원 예측에 관한 연구

조성우 ( Sung Woo Cho ),원승환 ( Seung Hwan Won ),이주호 ( Joo Ho Lee ) 한국해운물류학회(구 한국해운학회) 2015 해운물류연구 Vol.31 No.3

본 연구에서는 선박의 대형화 요인 및 추세를 살펴보았으며, 이러한 변화에 선제적으로 대응하여 허브항만의 지위를 유지하기 위해 필요한 기초자료인 2만 5000TEU급 그리고 3만 TEU급 초대형 컨테이너선의 출현시기와 해당 선박들의 제원(선장, 선폭, 최대흘수)을 시나리오별로 나누어 분석하였다. 지금까지 출현한 선박의 규모 변화, 근래 10년간의 추세 그리고 전문가들의 의견을 종합해볼 때 선박의 대형화는 당분간 지속될 것으로 전망된다. 타 연구결과와 비교한 결과 본 연구의 시나리오 3이 정확도가 가장 높은 것으로 판단되었으며, 2만 TEU급은 2017년, 2만 5000TEU급은 2022년 그리고 3만 TEU급은 2026년 운항될 것으로 분석되었다. 이와 더불어 선박 제원의 경우도 시나리오 3이 적절한 결과라고 판단되었으며, 2만 5000TEU급 컨테이너선의 경우 선장 474m, 선폭 61m, 최대흘수 18.3m가 될 것으로 분석되었으며, 3만 TEU급 컨테이너선은 선장 517m, 선폭 65m, 최대흘수 19.4m에 이를 것으로 분석되었다. In the early 2000’s, many maritime researchers had a negative opinion about this question “Is it possible to go beyond the 18kTEU barrier?” However, 18kTEU+ container vessels have been operated since the second half of 2013. The transportation of containers by sea began in the 1950s, 8kTEU+ container ships were sailed in 2003, 13kTEU+ container ships were deployed in 2006. In 2015, 21kTEU+ container vessels have been ordered and are going to be operated in the second half of 2017. There are several reasons why size of vessel dramatically increase in spite of a negative outlook and technical issues which are related to practical development. (1) the capital costs for the larger units are actually not increasing in a linear progression but slightly below that (2) the economies of scale of the voyage costs can be reduced to the single biggest cost driver: the propulsion consumption of the ships (3) it could be explained the increase of ocean route service demand and the extension of international trade (4) the liner service market becomes more competitive due to the gradual collapse of shipping conference. The mega shipping companies try to have the mega container vessels more and more in order to survive the intense competition. The main maritime routes are expected to redesigned with hub-ports as the center that are being secured depth and infrastructure fixes such as longer and stringer quays, container crane(quay crane). “Mega-ships have mega-dimensions, which pose challenges to ports and require adaptations.” Some main ports in republic of Korea should be prepared to maintain the position of hub-ports. Ports, that is oriented hub-ports all over the world, located in Singapore, Netherlands, and China just accelerate the expansion of port facilities and the development of new concept container terminal system This study examines some determinants and trends with the growing container vessel size. The purpose of this study is to propose the time of first appearance on 25kTEU and 30kTEU class container ship and analyze the expected vessel specifications above-mentioned container ships. The results of this paper are as follows: Firstly, we expect the trend of growing container vessel size to last due to changing in the scale of container ships from the past until now, trend over 10 years, and the opinion of a so-called ‘experts.’ Secondly, in case of the first service time on ultra large container ships, a scenario 3 of this study is a very high accuracy in comparison with other previous studies. Analysis shows that 20kTEU+ will begin to service in 2017, 25kTEU+ will provide service in 2022, and 30kTEU+ might start to operate in 2026. Thirdly, a scenario 3 of this study is considered appropriate result in the expected vessel specifications. The following are the estimated specifications in case of 25kTEU class (1) Length overall: 474m (2) Breadth: 61m (3) Scantling draft: 18.3m and in case of 30kTEU class, (1) Length overall: 517m (2) Breadth: 65m (3) Scantling draft: 19.4m.

선박대형화에 따른 도선사 수요 예측과 공급 정책 개선 방안에 관한 소고

김태일 ( Tae Il Kim ),김명석 ( Myeong Seok Kim ),이나영 ( Na Yeong Lee ),박용안 ( Yong An Park ) 한국해운물류학회(구 한국해운학회) 2015 해운물류연구 Vol.31 No.2

이 연구는 우리나라에 기항하는 선박의 대형화 속도가 빨라지고 있는 점에 착안하여 선박대형화가 도선사 수요에 미치는 영향을 다루었으며, 향후 예상되는 도선사공급의 문제점과 이를 해결하기 위한 정책 개선 방안을 제시하여 도선사 수급 정책수립에 있어 새로운 시각을 제시하고자 하였다. 본 연구는 수요 측면에서 회귀분석을 수행한 후 선박대형화 요인을 고려하여 도선사 수요를 추정하였으며, 그 결과 도선사 수요가 과거에 비해 크게 증가하지 않을 것으로 전망된다. 다만 공급 측면에서도선수습생 전형시험 응시자의 고령화 추세가 지속되고 있어 향후 도선사 라이프 사이클의 축소가 예상되며, 이는 도선사 공급 및 자질 문제를 초래할 것으로 예상된다. 이에 따라 도선시장은 수요 둔화 전망에도 불구하고 공급시장의 내적 문제가 존재하는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 도선사의 원활한 공급을 위해 승선요건의 완화, 양성 체계의 개선, 시험제도의 개편 및 자질 향상 방안 등을 추진할 필요가 있다. 이 연구는 도선 정책 당국 및 도선시장 참여자들에게 유익한 정보를 제공할 것으로 기대된다. The pilotage market is undergoing many environmental changes of which the enlargement of ship size is a typical example. Whereas the vessels of 75,000 tons or more out of the total vessels calling at South Korean ports have shown a double-digit growth, the number of ships below the size of 75,000 tons has recorded a mere one-digit or negative growth from 2001 to 2013. Such growth in large-sized vessels is expected to affect the demand of maritime pilots as it will decelerate the number of ships calling at ports. In this study, we first forecasted the demand of pilots in consideration of the trend of increase in the size of the vessels calling at Korean ports. In the latter part of the study, we derived alternative suggestions for improving pilot supply policy. As shown in the results of the analysis, the average annual growth rate of the pilotage acts for ships recorded 6.8% in 1992-2002 but it is expected to shrink to 1.4% in 2015-2025. Eventually, the number of pilotage acts performed by one pilot in 2025 is expected to be 613 based on the simple regression analysis. However, considering the size effect, that figure is expected to decrease to 585 and the total number of 7,337 ships under pilotage in the overall pilotage market will be reduced. Consequently, the number of pilots is forecasted to reduce about 12 people (11.97 people) in the market. In the pilot supply side, the number of captains aboard merchant ships of 6,000 tons or more has increased and the average competition rate in the apprentice pilot aptitude test has maintained 10 to 1. Unless the sudden reduction of crew resources is carried out, the pilot supply market is expected to maintain stability until 2025. Nevertheless, it is judged that the life cycle of pilots be shorter than before because the candidates for apprentice pilot aptitude test have been aging. When forecasting the age structure of the candidates for apprentice pilot aptitude test, 55-59 year-old age is expected to exceed 50% in 2017. The trend of aging candidates would play as a biggest problem in the pilot supply structure by shortening the working duration as a pilot, which will lead to supply shortage and quality degradation in the pilotage market. Although the demand for pilots is not to be increased significantly, the pilots`` quality and supply problems in the market are expected to take place. To improve pilot supply policies, it is necessary to promote the reforms such as relaxation of pilot boarding requirements, improvement of pilot training and examination systems. With measures to improve the quality of the pilots, these reforms are also going to soften the supply of pilots.

선박 대형화에 따른 부산항 선석 생산성 및 효율성 비교분석

김정훈 ( Kim Jong-hoon ),남형식 ( Nam Hyung-sik ),강달원 ( Kang Dal-won ) 한국해운물류학회 2024 해운물류연구 Vol.40 No.1

컨테이너를 이용한 해상운송이 본격화됨에 따라 컨테이너선의 크기는 꾸준히 증가했으며 최근에는 24,000TEU급 선박의 운항이 일반화되어 있다. 컨테이너선은 TEU 당 운송비용을 낮추는 규모의 경제 실현을 목적으로 대형화되어 왔지만 규모의 비경제성, 항만 운영의 부정적 영향 등의 이유로 선박 대형화 타당성에 대한 의문이 제기되고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 부산항 터미널별 선형에 따른 선석 생산성을 분석하고, 단순회귀분석을 통해 선형과 선석 생산성과의 인과관계 및 변동 수치를 분석하였다. 이후 DEA 분석을 통해 부산항 컨테이너 터미널들의 상대적 효율성을 살펴보았으며, 향후 항만 효율성 향상 방안을 제시하였다. 또한, 향후 항만개발 및 설립 시 선석 생산성을 극대화하며 선석의 제약 요소를 최소화하는 방안을 고려할 것을 제시하였다. As maritime transportation using containers began in earnest, the size of container ships steadily increased, and in recent years, the operation of 24,000TEU-class ships has become common. Container ships have been enlarged for the purpose of realizing economies of scale that lower transportation costs per TEU, but the feasibility of expanding ships has been raised due to non-economy of scale and negative effects of port operations. As a result, this study analyzed the berth productivity by ship size at Busan Port terminals and analyzed the change in the causal relationship ratio between ship size and berth productivity through simple regression analysis. Afterwards, through DEA analysis, the relative efficiency of Busan Port container terminals was examined, and suggested measures to improve port efficiency in the future. Also, it was suggested to consider ways to maximize berth productivity and minimize the constraints of berths when developing and establishing ports in the future.

선박 통항로에 인접한 활주로 항공기 이착륙 안전기준에 관한 연구

유용웅,김승연,이윤석 해양환경안전학회 2021 해양환경안전학회 학술발표대회 논문집 Vol.2021 No.11

선박 대형화에 따른 계류안전성 향상을 위한 부두시설 개선 연구

김승연,김수용,이윤석 해양환경안전학회 2022 해양환경안전학회 학술발표대회 논문집 Vol.2022 No.06

인천-제주항로 운항 여객선의 대형화에 따른 계류안전성 평가 연구

김승연,유용웅,이윤석 해양환경안전학회 2019 해양환경안전학회 학술발표대회 논문집 Vol.2019 No.04