일별 국지기온 결정에 미치는 관측지점 표고영향의 계절변동

윤진일(Jin I Yun),최재연(Jae Yeon Choi),안재훈(Jae Hoon Ahn) 한국농림기상학회 2001 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.3 No.2

Usage of ecosystem models has been extended to landscape scales for understanding the effects of environmental factors on natural and agro-ecosystems and for serving as their management decision tools. Accurate prediction of spatial variation in daily temperature is required for most ecosystem models to be applied to landscape scales. There are relatively few empirical evaluations of landscape-scale temperature prediction techniques in mountainous terrain such as Korean Peninsula. We derived a periodic function of seasonal lapse rate fluctuation from analysis of elevation effects on daily temperatures. Observed daily maximum and minimum temperature data at 63 standard stations in 1999 were regressed to the latitude, longitude, distance from the nearest coastline and altitude of the stations, and the optimum models with r^2 of 0.65 and above were selected. Partial regression coefficients for the altitude variable were plotted against day of year, and a numerical formula was determined for simulating the seasonal trend of daily lapse rate, i.e., partial regression coefficients. The formula in conjunction with an inverse distance weighted interpolation scheme was applied to predict daily temperatures at 267 sites, where observation data are available, on randomly selected dates for winter, spring and summer in 2000. The estimation errors were smaller and more consistent than the inverse distance weighting plus mean annual lapse rate scheme. We conclude that this method is simple and accurate enough to be used as an operational temperature interpolation scheme at landscape scale in Korea and should be applicable to elsewhere.

온도시간 기반의 배추 생육단계 추정

김진희 ( Jin Hee Kim ),윤진일 ( Jin I. Yun ) 한국농림기상학회 2015 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.17 No.4

기온자료만으로 배추의 결구시기 및 수확적기를 정확하게 예측하기 위해 실측자료에 근거한 배추 생육단계 예측모형을 개발하였다. 이 모형에서는 배추의 일생을 생육기와 결구기로 나누고 각각에 대해 매일의 생장량이 최적 함수식에 의해 계산된다. 최적 함수식의 도출에는 강원도 고랭지 여름배추 주산지와 전남해남의 가을배추 주산지 7개 농가, 8개 작형에서 수집된 2012-2014년 자료가 활용되었다. 예측모형의 성능검증에는 같은 지역의 다른 농가 17개에서 수집된 생육자료와 소기후모형에 의해 복원된 국지기온자료로 구성된 독립자료세트가 사용되었는데, 17개 지점의 3년간 수확예정일 평균추정오차(RMSE)는 5.3일 이었다. 이 모형은 기상청의 일별 기온자료를 이용하여 다양한 지역과 작형에서 재배되는 배추의 결구기와 수확기를 예측하는 소위 ‘농업기상예보’ 목적으로 활용될 수 있을 것이다. A thermal time-based phenology model of Kimchi cabbage was developed by using the field observed growth and temperature data for the purpose of accurately predicting heading and harvest dates among diverse cropping systems. In this model the lifecycle of Kimchi cabbage was separated into the growth stage and the heading stage, while the growth amount of each stage was calculated by optimal mathematical functions describing the response curves for different temperature regimes. The parameter for individual functions were derived from the 2012-2014 crop status report collected from seven farms with different cropping systems located in major Kimchi cabbage production area of South Korea (i.e., alpine Gangwon Province for the summer cultivation and coastal plains in Jeonnam Province for the autumn cultivation). For the model validation, we used an independent data set consisting of local temperature data restored by a geospatial correction scheme and observed harvest dates from 17 farms. The results showed that the root mean square error averaged across the location and time period (2012-2014) was 5.3 days for the harvest date. This model is expected to enhance the utilization of the Korea Meteorological Administration``s daily temperature data in issuing agrometeorological forecasts for developmental stages of Kimchi cabbage grown widely in South Korea.

개회로 CO_2/H_2O 적외선 기체 분석기 보정 인자의 변동성과 장기 플럭스 관측에 미치는 영향

최태진,윤진일,임종환,박은우,김준 한국농림기상학회 2002 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.4 No.2

Calibration experiments were executed to document pertinent calibration methods for open-path infrared gas analyzer (OP-2) in field operations and to quantify their performance characteristics in continuous long-term flux measurements. Based on our results, we concluded: (1) flow rate of 2.0 L min^-1 can be used for calibration instead of the recommended 0.5 L min^-1. Such faster flow rate brings the sampled air in the calibration hood at equilibrium within 5 min for CO_2 and 10 min for H_2O; (2) after reaching equilibrium, two-minute average sampling for related variables per each concentration may be sufficient; (3) use of four concentration is needed to derive the nonlinear calibration equation for water vapor with 1% uncertainty of flux measurement; and (4) the resultant calibration interval for OP-2 for both CO_2 and H_2O is approximately one month.

지형기후모형에 근거한 서리경보시스템 구축

정유란,서희철,윤진일 한국농림기상학회 2004 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.6 No.3

A spatial interpolation scheme incorporating local geographic potential for cold air accumulation (TOPSIM) was used to test the feasibility of operational frost warning in Chatancheon basin in Yeoncheon County-, where the introduction of new crops including temperate zone fruits is planned. Air temperature from April to June 2003 was measured at one-minute intervals at four locations within the basin. Cold-air accumulation potentials (CAP) at 4 sites were calculated for 3 different catchment scales : a rectangular area of 65 x 55 km which covers the whole county, the KOWACO (Korea Water Corporation) hydrologic unit which includes all 4 sites, and the sub-basins delineated by a stream network analysis of the digital elevation model. Daily minimum temperatures at 4 sites were calculated by interpolating the perfect prognosis (i.e., synoptic observations at KMA Dongducheon station) based on TOPSIM with 3 different CAPs. Mean error; mean absolute error; and root mean square error were calculated for 45 days with no precipitation to test the model performance. For the 3 flat locations, little difference was detected in model performance among 3 catchment areas, but the best performance was found with the CAPs calculated for sub-basins at one site (Oksan) on complex terrain. When TOPSIM loaded with sub-basin CAPs was applied to Oksan to predict frost events during the fruit flowering period in 2004, the goodness of fit was sufficient for making an operational frost warning system for mountainous areas.

구릉지 과원의 고도에 따른 기온변이

정유란,서희철,윤진일 한국농림기상학회 2003 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.5 No.1

2001년 9월부터 2002년 6월까지 소규모 집수역 내고도가 다른 3개 지점(해발 49,104, 253m)에서 30분 간격으로 기온을 측정하여 다음과 같은 결과를 얻었다. 평균기온은 100m 당 0.2℃씩 하강하였으며, 이 감율양상은 낮 시간대 지형에 의한 일사 수광량변이에 의해 증폭되었다. 그러나 감율양상은 일몰시점부터 고도가 높을수록 기온이 더 높아지는 역전양상으로 전환되어 다음 날 일출시점까지 지속되었다. 이에 따라 계곡기저의 일 최저기온이 253m 지점에 비해 더 낮은 날이 연중 67%를 차지하였고 연평균 기온편차는 1.4℃ 이었다. 맑은 날의 최저기온 역전강도는 겨울보다 봄가을에 더 커지며 대상지역에서 관측된 최대값은 6℃ 이었다. 흐리고 비온 날의 최저기온은 감율양상이 지속되었으며 봄가을보다 겨울철의 기온감율이 더 컸다. Air temperature was continuously measured in hilly pear orchards at 4 sites with elevations of 10, 49, 104 and 253 m above sea level. The mean air temperature, averaged over the 10-month period from August 2001 to June 2002, decreased as the site elevation increased by 0.2℃ per 100 m. This weak lapse condition was amplified during daytime by sun-slope geometry. But on most days an inversion condition began by sunset and persisted until the next sunrise. During the observation period, daily minimum temperature at the valley bottom was lower than that of the hilltop on 67% of the days, and the average temperature difference was 1.4℃. Inversion of daily minimum temperature under clear sky conditions was stronger in spring and autumn than in winter with a maximum of 6℃. Lapse condition was predominant in daily minimum temperature on rainy days, and the lapse rate was strongest in winter.

일사 수광량 보정에 의한 산악지대 매시기온의 공간내삽

정유란,윤진일 한국농림기상학회 2002 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.4 No.2

Spatial interpolation has become a common procedure in converting temperature forecasts and observations at irregular points for use in regional scale ecosystem modeling and the model based decision support systems for resource management. Neglection of terrain effects in most spatial interpolations for short term temperatures may cause erroneous results in mountainous regions, where the observation network hardly covers full features of the complicated terrain. A spatial interpolation model for daytime hourly temperature was formulated based on error analysis of unsampled site with respect to the site topography. The model has a solar irradiance correction scheme in addition to the common backbone of the lapse rate-corrected inverse distance weighting. The solar irradiance scheme calculates the direct, diffuse and reflected components of shortwave radiation over any surfaces based on the sun-slope geometry and compares the sum with that over a reference surface. The deviation from the reference radiation is used to calculate the temperature correction term by an empirical conversion formula between the solar energy and the air temperature on any sloped surfaces at an hourly time scale, which can be prepared seasonally for each land cover type. When this model was applied to a 14㎞ by 22㎞ mountainous region at a 10m horizontal resolution, the estimated hourly temperature surfaces showed a better agreement with the observed distribution than those by a conventional method.

일 최저기온 공간내삽을 위한 지형기후학적 최적 공간규모

정유란,서희철,윤진일,이광회 한국농림기상학회 2003 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.5 No.4

Cold air accumulation plays a critical role in formulating daily minimum temperature in complex terrain on radiative cooling nights, and spatial interpolation can be improved by accommodating this important topoclimatic variable. Little is known about the spatial scale for computing cold air accumulation which influences daily minimum temperature. Air temperature was measured at 10-minute intervals during September 2002 - February 2003 at eight locations within a 1 by 1 km hilly orchard area. Minimum temperature data for suspected radiative cooling nights were collected, and the deviations from reference observations at a near-by KMA automated weather station were calculated. A digital elevation model with a 10m cell size was used to calculate the cold air accumulation at 8 locations. Zonal averages of the cold air accumulation were computed for each location by increasing the cell radius from 1 to 10. Temperature deviations were regressed to a common logarithm of the smoothed averages of cold air accumulation to derive a linear relationship between the local temperature deviation and the site topography. The highest coefficient of determination (r² = 0.78) was found at a cell radius of 5, which corresponds to an approximately 1 ha boundary surrounding the point of interest.

기상청 동네예보의 영농활용도 증진을 위한 방안: IV. "하늘상태"를 이용한 일조시간 및 일 적산 일사량 상세화

김수옥 ( Soo Ock Kim ),윤진일 ( Jin I. Yun ) 한국농림기상학회 2015 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.17 No.4

일조시간 및 일사량은 작물생육에 중요한 기상요소 이지만 기상청 동네예보 항목에 없기 때문에 3시간간격 ‘하늘상태’를 활용하여 일조시간 및 수평면 일사량을 추정하는 방법을 고안하였다. 기상청 동네예보의 3시간 간격 ‘하늘상태’ 자료를 수집하고 전국 22개 일사관측 기상대의 동시간대 실측 운량과 비교하여 ‘하늘상태’의 4단계 격자값 ‘맑음(1)’, ‘구름조금(2)’, ‘구름많음(3)’, ‘흐림(4)’을 0부터 10까지의 운량으로 변환하였다. 22개 일사관측 기상대의 일 평균운량 0인날에 대하여 일조율을 비교하여 관측여건이 가장 좋은 3개 지점을 선정하였다. 선정된 지점의 3년치 운량과 일조시간 실측자료로부터 운량-일조시간 추정식을 도출하였으며, 이 식에 의해 추정된 일조시간값으로 Angstrom-Prescott 모형을 구동하여 수평면 일사량을 산출하였다. ‘하늘상태’ 기반으로 추정된 일조시간 및 일사량을 3 지점에서 2년간 실측자료와 비교한 결과RMSE 기준 일조시간 추정오차는 1.5~1.7 시간, 일사량추정오차는 2.5~3.0 MJ m-2 day-1 이었다. Information on sunshine duration and solar radiation are indispensable to the understanding of crop growth and development. Yet, relevant variables are not available in the Korea Meteorological Administration``s (KMA) digital forecast. We proposed the methods of estimating sunshine duration and solar radiation based on the ‘sky condition’ of digital forecast products and validated using the observed data. The sky condition values (1 for clear, 2 for partly cloudy, 3 for cloudy, and 4 for overcast) were collected from 22 weather stations at 3-hourly intervals from August 2013 to July 2015. According to the observed relationship, these data were converted to the corresponding amount of clouds on the 0 to 10 scale (0 for clear, 4 for partly cloudy, 7 for cloudy, and 10 for overcast). An equation for the cloud amount-sunshine duration conversion was derived from the 3-year observation data at three weather stations with the highest clear day sunshine ratio (i.e., Daegwallyeong, Bukgangneung, and Busan). Then, the estimated sunshine hour data were used to run the Angstrom- Prescott model which was parameterized with the long-term KMA observations, resulting in daily solar radiation for the three weather stations. Comparison of the estimated sunshine duration and solar radiation with the observed at those three stations showed that the root mean square error ranged from 1.5 to 1.7 hours for sunshine duration and from 2.5 to 3.0 MJ m-2 day-1 for solar radiation, respectively.

Chill Unit 축적과 휴면해제시기 공간변이 추정 프로그램 : CUMAP

김광수,정유란,윤진일 한국농림기상학회 2004 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.6 No.3

A chill unit has been used to estimate chilling requirement for dormancy release and risk of freezing damage. A system that calculates chill units was developed to obtain site-specific estimates of dormancy release date for grapes and evaluated in Baekgu myun near Kimje City, Chunbuk, Korea from September 2002 to March 2003. The system utilized daily minimum and maximum temperature maps generated from spatial interpolation with temperature correction for topography. Hourly temperature was temporally interpolated from the daily data using a sine-exponential equation (Patron and Logan, 1981). Hourly chill units were determined from sigmoid, reverse sigmoid, and negatively increasing sigmoid functions based on temperature ranges and summed for 24 h. Cumulative daily chill units obtained from measurements did not increase until 20 October 2002, which was used as a start date for accumulation to estimate the dormancy release date. As a result, a map of dormancy release date in the study area was generated, assuming 800 chill units as a threshold for the chilling requirement. The chill unit accumulation system, implemented using Microsoft Visual Basic and C++ (Microsoft, Redmond, WA, USA), runs in the Windows environment with ArcView (ESRI Inc., Redlands, CA, USA).

맑은 날 한낮의 사면 기온분포와 일사 수광량 간 관계

김수옥 ( Soo Ock Kim ),윤진일 ( Jin I Yun ) 한국농림기상학회 2013 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.15 No.4

소규모 집수역에서 한낮 기온의 분포와 일사수광량간 관계를 관찰하기 위해 고도 50m급 3곳, 100m급3곳, 300m급 3곳 등 9지점의 사면에 경사향을 달리하여 무인기상관측기를 설치하고 1년간 매일 1500 기온과 직전 4시간(1100-1500) 일사량자료를 수집하였다. 운량이 0인 맑은 날에 한정하여 각 지점의 사면 일사수광량을 계산하고 1500 기온과 비교하였다. 이때 각지점의 경사도(slope)와 경사향(aspect)은 30 × 30 m격자를 기준으로 반경이 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30개 격자로 평활화 하여 사용하였다. 1500 기온에 미치는 직전 4시간 일사수광량 간에는 통계적으로 유의한 회귀관계가 인정되었으며, 반경 25개 격자(750m)로 평활화한 경우 사면 기온변이의 54%를 설명할 수 있었다(y = 0.8309x + 0.0438, r2 = 0.5444). Automated weather stations were installed at 9 locations with, three different elevations, (i.e., 50m, 100m, and 300m a.s.l.) with different slope and aspect in a small watershed (50km2 area). Air temperature at 1500 LST and solar radiation accumulated for 1100-1500 LST were collected from January to December 2012. Topography of the study area was defined by a 30 × 30 m digital elevation model (DEM) grid. Accumulated solar irradiance was calculated for each location with the spatially averaged slope and aspect of surrounding circles with 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 grid cell radii, respectively. The 1500 LST air temperature from clear sky conditions with zero cloud amount was regressed to the 1100-1500 LST solar irradiance at 9 locations. We found the highest coefficient of determination (r2 = 0.544) at 25 grid cell radius and the temperature variation in this study was explained by Y = 0.8309X + 0.0438, where Y is 1500 LST temperature (in oC) and X is 1100-1500 LST accumulated solar irradiance (in MJ/m2).