2020년 부동산 향방은?

심교언(Shim, Gyo-Eon) 대한국토·도시계획학회 2020 도시정보 Vol.- No.455

세종시의 지속가능한 발전전략

심교언(Shim, Gyo-Eon),조경훈(Cho, Kyung-Hoon),민범식(Min, Beum-Sik) 대한건축학회 2015 建築 Vol.59 No.3

복합개발사업 공모의 공모 특성 및 당선작 특성 분석

심교언(Shim Gyo-Eon),서준원(Seo Jun-Won),이상경(Lee Sang-Kyeong) 한국도시행정학회 2008 도시 행정 학보 Vol.21 No.2

This research aims at analyzing the features of project financing(PF) competitions and winners of twelve mixed-use development(MXD) projects. As a result of our analysis, the features showed the expansion of competition organizations, the diversification of sites and development form, and quickening the time of competition in the development process. The size of project has grown in floor area, project expenses and capital. For the formation of winner's consortium, construction investor(CI)’s share was gradually decreasing from excessive share in the beginning; however, due to conservative approach by financial investors(FI), investor-based business was not yet available. Tenants were mainly composed by general commercial companies such as department stores and discount stores in the beginning; however, recently there are various companies such as multiplex movie theaters, sports centers, educational academies, broadcasting companies and medical institutions. The average business operation period is six years and four months and the average floor area of commercial function is about 3.1 times the 'Central City' in Seoul, which explains excessive size for commercial area.

개발부담금 부과기준으로서의 개발이익 산정에 관한 문제점과 개선방안

김성훈 ( Sung-hoon Kim ),심교언 ( Gyo-eon Shim ) 건국대학교 법학연구소 2021 일감부동산법학 Vol.- No.23

토지공개념을 실현하기 위한 제도로 1990년 개발부담금 제도가 도입되어 제도가 시행된 지 30년이 경과하였다. 개발부담금 제도는 정상지가상승분을 초과하는 불로소득적인 개발이익이 생긴 경우 국가가 납부의무자로부터 이를 환수하여 배분하는 제도이다. 개발부담금은 개발사업의 시행으로 취득한 이익, 즉 개발이익 중 일부를 환수하는 부담금이라고 할 수 있다. 개발부담금 부과는 재산권 제한을 의미하므로 그 부과기준은 부과 대상자가 현실적으로 얻게 되는 개발이익과 일치하여야 한다. 개발이익환수법 제6조 제1항 제3호는 개발사업을 완료하기 전 사업 시행자의 지위가 승계된 경우 승계인에게 사업기간 전체의 개발부담금 납부의무를 부과하도록 하고 있다. 개발사업이 승계되는 경우 승계 전사업시행자(양도인)는 자신이 발생시킨 개발이익을 매매가격에 포함시키는 방식으로 실현하게 된다. 그럼에도 위 법률조항은 승계인으로 하여금 언제나 양도인이 발생시킨 개발이익에 관한 개발부담금까지 부담하도록 하고 있다. 이는 양도 전 개발이익에 관하여 실질적 이익귀속자가 아닌 사람에게 개발부담금을 부과하는 것이므로, 실질적 이익귀속자부담 원칙과 평등원칙에 반하고, 재산권 제한의 과잉금지 원칙에도 위반된다. 따라서 위 법률조항은 삭제되어야 한다. 대신 개발사업 도중 사업 시행자의 지위가 이전된 경우 그 시점을 양도인에 대한 부과 종료 시점으로 정하면 개발부담금 부과의 공백은 발생하지 않을 것이다. 개발이익환수법 제2조 제3호와 개발이익환수법 시행령 제2조 제4항에 따라 정상지가상승분은 일반적으로 각 연도별 해당 시ㆍ군ㆍ구의 평균지가변동률이 적용되어 산정된다. 그런데 당해 토지의 부과 개시 시점 당시의 이용 상황에 따른 지가변동률과 해당 시ㆍ군ㆍ구의 평균 지가변동률은 편차가 있을 수밖에 없다. 공시지가를 활용하면 종래 이용 상황에 따른 지가변동을 공시지가제도 범위 내에서 정확하게 산출할 수 있다. 그럼에도 위 법률조항은 개발 토지의 실제 지가변동과 다른 금액이 산출될 수밖에 없도록 입법되어 있으므로 입법형성권을 일탈하였다고 할 수 있다. 또 종래 이용 상황이나 지역이 다른 동일 시ㆍ군ㆍ구의 개발사업지에 같은 평균지가변동률을 적용하여 정상지가상승분을 산정하는 것은 실질적 평등원칙에도 위배된다. 뿐만 아니라 종래 이용 상황에 따른 지가상승액보다 위와 같이 산정한 정상지가상승분이 더 적을 경우에는 개발로 상승한 지가상승분이 아닌 부분에 대하여도 개발부담금을 부과하게 되어 납부의무자의 재산권을 침해하게 된다. 이러한 문제점은 정상지가상승분 산출에 공시지가를 활용함으로써 해소할 수 있다. 부과 개시 시점 당시의 표준지를 이용하여 종료시점의 공시지가를 산정한 후, 그 산정된 지가에서 개시시점의 공시지가를 뺀 금액을 정상지가상승분으로 인정하도록 한다면, 법체계에 부합하는 적정한 개발부담금을 산정할 수 있을 것이다. As a system to realize the concept of land disclosure, the development levy system was introduced in 1990 and 30 years have passed since the system was implemented. The development levy system is a system in which the state recovers and allocates unearned development profits that exceed the increase in normal land prices from the person liable for payment. A development levy can be said to be a levy on recovering part of the development profit from the implementation of a development project. The imposition of a development levy means a restriction on property rights, so the criteria for imposition shall be consistent with the development gains that the person subject to imposition actually obtains. Article 6 (1) 3 of the Development Profit Recovery Act imposes a payment obligation on the successor if the status of the project operator is succeeded before the completion of the development project. This provision is that even if the successor has paid the sale price including development profits generated by the previous implementer, the successor must also bear the development charges related to the development profits generated by the previous implementer. This is a development levy imposed on a person who is not an attributor of real profit in relation to pre-transfer development gains. This is contrary to the principle of real taxation and the principle of equality, as well as the principle of prohibition of excessive restriction of property rights. Therefore, the above clause should be removed. Instead, where the development project is transferred in the interim, the timing of the completion of the imposition of the transferor shall be separately determined. There will be no vacuum in the development levy. According to Article 2-3 of the Development Profit Recovery Act and Article 2 (4) of the Enforcement Decree of the Development Profit Recovery Act, the average land price fluctuation rate of the relevant city, county, and district is generally applied to calculate the normal land price increase rate. Therefore, the normal land price increase differs from the actual land price change for the individual land. However, there are no devices to adjust. It is a deviation from the right to legislate, and it violates substantial equality by treating others equally. The above provisions may infringe on property rights. The above problems can be resolved by using the official land price to calculate the increase in normal land prices. The land price at the time of termination shall be calculated using the standard land at the time of commencement. The amount of land price calculated minus the land price at the beginning of the period shall be recognized as the increase in the normal land price. In this case, the calculation of the development levy would reflect a rise in the appropriate normal land value consistent with the legal framework.

중·소병의원 건물매력도와 교통인프라가 고객만족도에 미치는 영향

김덕기(Duck Ki Kim),심교언(Gyo-Eon Shim) 한국콘텐츠학회 2018 한국콘텐츠학회논문지 Vol.18 No.2

본 연구는 급변하는 의료 환경 속에서 중소병의원의 개원 및 운영과 관련하여 입지 및 건물의 매력도와 의료집적성이 고객만족도에 미치는 영향을 의료집적성이 매개효과를 중심으로 분석한 실증연구이다. 주요 연구결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 건물매력도가 고객만족도에 유의적인 정(+)의 영향을 미칠 것이라는 가설은 채택되었다. 둘째, 교통인프라가 고객만족도에 유의적인 정(+)의 영향을 미칠 것이라는 가설은 기각되었다. 셋째, 건물매력도가 의료집적성에 유의적인 정(+)의 영향을 미칠 것이라는 가설은 채택되었다. 넷째, 교통인프라가 의료집적성에 유의적인 정(+)의 영향을 미칠 것이라는 가설은 채택되었다. 다섯째, 의료집적성이 고객만족도에 유의적인 정(+)의 영향을 미칠 것이라는 가설은 채택되었다. 여섯째, 건물매력도와 고객만족도간의 관계를 의료집적성이 매개할 것이라는 가설은 부분매개역할이 있음이 확인되어 채택되었다. 일곱째, 교통인프라와 고객만족도 간의 관계를 의료집적성이 매개할 것이라는 가설은 완전매개역할이 있음이 확인되어 채택되었다. 본 연구의 결과는 향후 의료서비스 시설의 입지선정을 위한 기초를 제공하는 데 응용할 수 있을 것이다. This research refers to the importance of health care in relation to the establishment of health care facilities and health care facilities in the rapidly changing health care environment, and the influence of health care in relation to the customer’s satisfaction with health care. Orthographic analysis First, a hypothesis was adopted that the attractiveness of building materials will affect the positive (+) impact of the customer’s satisfaction. Second, the hypothesis that the transport infrastructure will have a significant impact on the customer’s satisfaction with the customer’s satisfaction has been denied. Third, the hypothesis that the building appeal will have a significant effect on the health of the medical industry is adopted. Fourth, the hypothesis that the transport infrastructure will have a significant impact on health care is adopted. Fifth, the hypothesis that medical integration will have a significant impact on the customer’s satisfaction with the customer’s satisfaction is adopted. Sixth, the hypothesis that the relationship between the building and the customer’s satisfaction in relation to the relationship between the client and the client was found to be partly attributable to the fact that there was a partial role. The assumption that the relationship between the transport infrastructure and the customer’s satisfaction in relation to the traffic infrastructure was established has been identified as a complete parameter. The results of this study could be applied to provide the basis for selecting the location for future health care facilities.

분양가 상한제의 실효성에 대한 실증분석

우철민(Chul-Min Woo),심교언(Gyo-Eon Shim) 건국대학교 부동산도시연구원 2010 Working Paper Series Vol.10 No.01

본 연구의 목적은 현재 정부에서 실행하고 있는 분양가상한제 제도의 실효성에 대한 실증분석 연구이다. 정부는 높은 아파트 분양가가 중고아파트 가격에 영향을 미쳐 아파트 가격이 동반 상승한다는 이론을 앞세워 분양가상한제를 시행하였다. 분양가상한제는 현재 주택공급 감소와 미분양주택의 증가와 같은 시장의 기능을 방해하고 있는 것으로 판단된다. 이에 본 연구에서는 실제적으로 주택시장에서 신규주택과 중고주택가격간에 인과성이 존재하는지를 실증분석하기 위해 각 시장별 수요·공급모형을 설정하여 분석하기로 한다. 분석결과 중고주택시장의 가격은 신규주택시장에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났지만 신규주택의 가격은 중고주택에 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 나타났다.

Prediction Model of Real Estate Transaction Price with the LSTM Model based on AI and Bigdata

Jeong-hyun Lee,Hoo-bin Kim,Gyo-eon Shim 국제문화기술진흥원 2022 International Journal of Advanced Culture Technolo Vol.10 No.1

Korea is facing a number difficulties arising from rising housing prices. As ‘housing’ takes the lion’s share in personal assets, many difficulties are expected to arise from fluctuating housing prices. The purpose of this study is creating housing price prediction model to prevent such risks and induce reasonable real estate purchases. This study made many attempts for understanding real estate instability and creating appropriate housing price prediction model. This study predicted and validated housing prices by using the LSTM technique - a type of Artificial Intelligence deep learning technology. LSTM is a network in which cell state and hidden state are recursively calculated in a structure which added cell state, which is conveyor belt role, to the existing RNN’s hidden state. The real sale prices of apartments in autonomous districts ranging from January 2006 to December 2019 were collected through the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport’s real sale price open system and basic apartment and commercial district information were collected through the Public Data Portal and the Seoul Metropolitan City Data. The collected real sale price data were scaled based on monthly average sale price and a total of 168 data were organized by preprocessing respective data based on address. In order to predict prices, the LSTM implementation process was conducted by setting training period as 29 months (April 2015 to August 2017), validation period as 13 months (September 2017 to September 2018), and test period as 13 months (December 2018 to December 2019) according to time series data set. As a result of this study for predicting ‘prices’, there have been the following results. Firstly, this study obtained 76 percent of prediction similarity. We tried to design a prediction model of real estate transaction price with the LSTM Model based on AI and Bigdata. The final prediction model was created by collecting time series data, which identified the fact that 76 percent model can be made. This validated that predicting rate of return through the LSTM method can gain reliability.

야간 도시 조명 관리 방안에 관한 연구

안내영(Ahn Nae-Young),심교언(Shim Gyo-Eon),안건혁(Ahn Kun-Hyuck) 한국도시행정학회 2008 도시 행정 학보 Vol.21 No.1

As the outdoor lighting has increased, it becomes difficult to look at the Galaxy or stars in cities any more. And the overuse of the outdoor lighting results in the glare, the trespass into a property, the damage to the wildlife and the waste of energy. Because of the growing interest in the nightscape, the light plans have increased. But the comprehensive light plans for the city are still few. Foreign countries are concerned about the negative effects of the artificial luminaire, and have the regulations to control the light pollution. The objectives of the outdoor light management are clearly defined in the other countries, which contain the protection of wildlife, the prevention of glare and trespass, the preservation of darksky, and energy efficiency. The more various objectives the outdoor lighting regulations contain, the more the laws adapt ‘Lighting Zone’and the more detail tools they have. In Korea, the recognition which the light could be pollution is insufficient, the regulation which manages the light pollution is few. To improve the quality of our urban environment, the management system of the outdoor lighting in the level of whole city is necessary.

AHP를 이용한 중·소 병원 입지선택요인 분석

김덕기(Duck Ki Kim),심교언(Gyo-Eon Shim) 한국콘텐츠학회 2018 한국콘텐츠학회논문지 Vol.18 No.5

본 연구는 급격한 사회 경제적 여건의 변화에 따라 중소병원의 설립에 대한 선택요인 및 입지 선정 요인의 중요성이 점점 커짐에 따라 의료서비스 시설의 선택요인 및 입지선정 요인에 대해 실증 분석하였다. 본 연구는 중·소 병원 선택요인 및 입지선정요인에 관한 연구를 통하여 각 평가항목 요인들 간의 중요도에 따른 우선순위를 분석하고, 부동산 입지적 요인과 비입지적 요인을 구분하여 기존 중소병원의 경쟁력에 미치는 중요 요인이 무엇인지 도출하여, 신규 중·소 병원 개원을 준비하고 있는 의료 공급자에게 중소병원 선택요인의 중요 요인에 따른 입지특성을 고려한 중소병원의 개원전략의 기초 자료로 할용 하는데 목적이 있다. 기존의 선행연구와 사례연구 결과를 바탕으로 의료수준, 의료서비스, 병원의 접근성, 병원의 편리성, 물리적 환경 측면에서 28개의 평가요인을 도출 하였으며, 수집된 28개의 세부평가요인은 관련 전문가들과의 인터뷰를 통하여 의료수준, 의료서비스, 병원의 전문성, 병원의 편리성, 물리적환경 등 5개 요인을 상위계층 평가요인으로 선정하였고 각 상위 계층에 따라 총 28개의 하부 평가 요인을 선정하였다. 선정된 최적 정평가요인들은 의료전문가 200명을 대상으로 AHP 설문조사를 실시하여 최적 입지요인을 선정하였다. AHP 분석결과는 선행연구의 사례와 유사하게 의료수준, 의료서비스 ,병원의 접근성, 물리적 환경, 편리성의 순으로 중요도가 나타났으며, 병원의 시설과 관련된 요인은 낮게 나타났다. 본 연구의 결과는 향후 중·소병 입지선정 의사 결정을 위한 기초를 제공하는데 응용할 수 있을 것이다. This research empirically analyzed the selection factors and the locational selection factors of the medical service facilities according to the gradual increase of the importance of the selection factors and the locational selection factors regarding the establishments of the small- and medium-sized hospitals according to the rapid changes of the socio-economic conditions. By analyzing the priority order according to the levels of the importance of each evaluation item factor through a research related to the selection factors and the locational selection factors of the small- and medium-sized hospitals and by drawing what the important factors that have the influences on the competitiveness of the pre-existent small- and medium-sized hospitals are through the classification of the real estate locational factors and the non-locational factors, the purpose lies in utilizing them as the basic data and materials for the opening strategies of the small- and medium-sized hospitals considering the special, locational characteristics according to the important factors of the selection factors of the small- and medium-sized hospitals, regarding the medical suppliers that have been preparing, for opening the new, small- and medium-sized hospitals. Based on the results of the preceding researches and the researches on the case examples, 28 evaluation factors were arrived at in terms of the level of the medical treatment, the medical services, the accessibilities of the hospitals, the conveniences of the hospitals, and the physical environment. And, regarding the 28 detailed evaluation factors that had been collected, through the interviews with the related experts, the 5 factors of the medical level, the medical service, the expertise of the hospital, the convenience of the hospital, and the physical environment were selected as the upper class evaluation factors. And, according to each upper class, a total of 28 low-part evaluation factors were selected. Regarding the optimal evaluation factors that were selected, the optimal locational factors were selected by carrying out an AHP questionnaire survey investigation with 200 medical experts as the subjects. Regarding the AHP analysis results, similarly with the case examples of the precedent researches, the levels of the importance appeared in the order of the medical level, the medical services, the accessibility of the hospital, the physical environment, and the convenience. And the factors that were related to the facilities of a hospital appeared low. The results of this research can be applied in providing the basis for the decision-makings regarding the selections of the locations of the small- and medium-sized hospitals in the future.

지역 내부이주 선호 요인과 지역별 선호 차이에 관한 연구

이상경(Lee, Sang-Kyeong),심교언(Shim, Gyo-Eon) 한국지역개발학회 2008 韓國地域開發學會誌 Vol.20 No.2

The purpose of this paper is to find detenmnants and region-specific difference of preference for present residential area. An empirical analysis is applied to the survey data in which households are clustered into 21 regions in Seoul metropolitan area. First, preference for residential area is analysed by O-D type table and the reason of preference is analysed by ranking table and chart. Second, random intercept logit model, a basic form of multi - level model is applied to the survey data. First, Yongsan- gu, Yangcheon- gu, Gangnam-gu and Seocho- gu in Seoul and Seongnam-si and Yongin-si in Gyeonggi-do are highly preferred by residents. Second, among the independent variables of random intercept logit model, the variables of personal and household characteristics, such as woman, values having to own a house, married daughters and sons living close to the present house, living in apartment and the amount of asset are statistically significant and positive but the amount of income is negative. The variables of regional characteristics, such as the amount of local taxes and the increasing rate of housing price are statistically significant and positive. Third, the region- specific difference of preference for present residential area is empirically verified by the variance of random intercept logit model