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SWAT model과 기후변화 자료를 이용한 산사태 예측 기법 제안과 평가: 지리산 국립공원 중산리 일대 사례연구
김지수,김민석,조용찬,오현주,이춘오,Kim, Jisu,Kim, Minseok,Cho, Youngchan,Oh, Hyunjoo,Lee, Choonoh 한국지하수토양환경학회 2021 지하수토양환경 Vol.26 No.6
The purpose of this study is prediction of landslide occurrence reflecting the subsurface flow characteristics within the soil layer in the future due to climate change in a large scale watershed. To do this, we considered the infinite slope stability theory to evaluate the landslide occurrence with predicted soil moisture content by SWAT model based on monitored data (rainfall-soil moisture-discharge). The correlation between the SWAT model and the monitoring data was performed using the coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>) and the model's efficiency index (Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency; NSE) and, an accuracy analysis of landslide prediction was performed using auROC (area under Receiver Operating Curve) analysis. In results comparing with the calculated discharge-soil moisture content by SWAT model vs. actual observation data, R<sup>2</sup> was 0.9 and NSE was 0.91 in discharge and, R<sup>2</sup> was 0.7 and NSE was 0.79 in soil moisture, respectively. As a result of performing infinite slope stability analysis in the area where landslides occurred in the past based on simulated data (SWAT analysis result of 0.7~0.8), AuROC showed 0.98, indicating that the suggested prediction method was resonable. Based on this, as a result of predicting the characteristics of landslide occurrence by 2050 using climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) data, it was calculated that four landslides could occur with a soil moisture content of more than 75% and rainfall over 250 mm/day during simulation. Although this study needs to be evaluated in various regions because of a case study, it was possible to determine the possibility of prediction through modeling of subsurface flow mechanism, one of the most important attributes in landslide occurrence.
SWAT 모델을 이용한 강우특성 변화에 의한 퇴적물-유출량 간의 관계 평가
김지수,김민석,조용찬,Kim, Jisu,Kim, Minseok,Cho, Youngchan 한국지하수토양환경학회 2021 지하수토양환경 Vol.26 No.6
The sediment transportation caused by soil erosion due to rainfall-discharge in the large watershed scale plays critical role in human society. The relationship between rainfall-discharge-sediment transportation is depending on the start time of rainfall and end of rainfall but, the studies related with rainfall characteristics are insufficient. In this study, The Soil and Water Assession Tool (SWAT) model was used to study the relationship between rainfall-discharge-sediment transportation at the Sook river watershed which is monitored by the Ministry of Environment. To do this, first of all, the sensitivity analysis about model attributes was performed using monitored data. The accuracy analysis of SWAT model was conducted using the model's efficiency index (Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency; NSE) and the coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>). After that, it was studied what results could be obtained according to changes in rainfall timing and end points. In the result of discharge simulation, the modified rainfall values (sum of total rainfall starting time and end time) showed more high accuracy values (R<sup>2</sup>:0.90, NSE: 0.8) than original rainfall values (R<sup>2</sup>:0.76, NSE: 0.72). In the result of sediment transportation simulation, during calibration had more resonable results(R<sup>2</sup>:0.87, NSE: 0.86) than compared with original rainfall values (R<sup>2</sup>:0.44, NSE: 0.41). However, validation results of sediment transportation simulation showed low accuracy values compared with calibration results. This results maybe cause monitoring periods of sediment flow compared with discharge monitoring periods. Nevertheless, since rainfall characteristic plays critical rule in model results, continuous research on rainfall characteristic is needed.
최익근(IkKeun Choi),최재섭(Jaeseob Choi),강병영(Byungyoung Kang),조용찬(Youngchan Cho),안재헌(Jaehyun An),장경훈(Kyeonghoon Jang),김희석(Heeseok Kim),박상현(Sanghyun Park) 한국자동차공학회 2020 한국자동차공학회 부문종합 학술대회 Vol.2020 No.7
본 연구는 차량 내장부품(칵핏모듈) 경량화를 위한 카울 크로스 바 구조 최적화에 대해 논하고자 한다. ‘20년 이후 자동차 CO2 배출 허용량에 대한 규제가 급격히 강화 되면서, 완성차 업계에서는 부품 경량화를 통한 CO2 배출 개선 전략으로 대응하고 있고, 칵핏 모듈 내 가장 많은 중량을 차지하는 카울 크로스 바에 대한 경량화 연구도 다양한 공법과 재질로 진행되고 있다. 본 연구는 경량화 재질인 플라스틱 복합재를 활용하여 파이프를 제작하고, 복합재 파이프를 각각의 금형 내 인서트 사출을 통해 브라켓 형상을 구현한 후, 하드웨어를 통해 조립하는 구조로 카울 크로스 바를 설계하였다. 이 설계구조를 바탕으로 제품을 제작하여 카울 크로스 바 5대 성능 (실차 충돌/컬럼 NVH/조향 강성/마운팅 강성/내구강성)과 에어백 전개, 법규, 환경 내구시험에 통해 스틸 재질 카울 크로스 바보다 동등 이상의 강성과 성능을 검증하였고, 이와 같은 검증 과정으로 개발된 플라스틱 복합재 경량화 카울 크로스 바의 최적화 구조에 대해 제안 하고자 한다.