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Event Tree하에서 베이지안 기법을 이용한 신뢰도예측
박철순,전치혁,양희중,장수영 한국경영과학회 1993 한국경영과학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.- No.2
When modeling a complex system we use an event tree to analyze propagation of failure. An event tree cannot represent the statistical interrelationships among parameters, but it can be represented as a statistically identical influence diagram so that parameter updating can be easily performed. After updating parameters we can calculate posterior distribution of the failure rate for each path. But exact distribution requires considerably complex numerical integration. We propose an approximation method to calculate the posterior and derive the predictive distribution of the time to next failure. Finally we introduce the system which implements our methodology.