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전치혁,고제석,서대석 한국경영과학회 1990 한국경영과학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.- No.1
This paper presents a forecasting method for domestic demand of electric home appliances. Because of lack of data, some popular methods such as time series analysis may not be appropriate to forecast such a demand domestically. We suggest a systematic and practical method by considering structural parameters and variables which determine the actual demand. We use this model to forecast the demand of color TV. Since the parameters in our model may be variant according to the change of economic environment, our model leads the user to develop an dynamic model to be used in the well-known System Dynamics Approach.
전치혁,박영신,김지수 한국경영과학회 1993 한국경영과학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.- No.1
어떤 무기체계의 임무신뢰도분석에 베이지안기법을 사용하는데 있어 고장을 이 주어졌을 때 고장간 시간이 지수분포를 따른다는 가정하에 이의 Conjugate Prior 인 감마분포의 추정문제를 다룬다. 임무별 고장간시간이 이 예측분포를 따른다는 전제하에 비선형 최소자승법을 이용하여 감마분포의 두 파라메터를 추정하는 방안을 제시하였다. 또한 대상 무기체계의 실제 고장 자료를 이용하여 추정치를 구하였다.
전치혁,양희중,장수영,정의승,임혜란 한국경영과학회 1993 한국경영과학회지 Vol.18 No.1
A Bayesian approach is proposed in estimating the mission failure rates by criticalities. A mission failure which occurs according to a Poisson process with unknown rate is assumed to be classified as one of the criticality levels with an unknown probability. We employ the Gamma prior for the mission failure rate and the Dirichlet prior for the criticality probabilities. Posterior distributions of the mission failure rates by criticalities and predictive distributions of the time to failure are derived.
시뮬레이션에서 Total Hazard를 이용한 신뢰도 추정
전치혁 한국경영과학회 1991 韓國經營科學會誌 Vol.16 No.1
The hazard estimator is proposed for estimating system failure probability of a general network where all minimal cut sets are given. Theoretical variance of the hazard estimator is derived in a bridge system. It is demonstrated that variance of the hazard estimator is much smaller than that of the raw simulation estimator particularly for small are failure probability.