넙치 관측사업 효과분석: 가격안정 및 시장효율성 개선효과, 산지-도매가격간 인과성 분석을 중심으로

이헌동 ( Heon Dong Lee ),안병일 ( Byeong Il Ahn ) 한국수산경영학회 2016 수산경영론집 Vol.47 No.1

The purpose of this study is to assess the effects of outlook project for olive flounder, from the view point of price stabilization, market efficiency, and causality of the prices in different distribution channels. Analytical results show that the volatility of producer price of olive flounder has been significantly mitigated after the implementation of the outlook project. The market efficiency is estimated to be improved after implementing the outlook project although there is an inefficiency on price determination process in some producing regions. The causality test on the producer and wholesale price shows that producing stage leads the wholesale stage in forming the prices. It is found that Jeju leads the flounder price on the size of 500g and 2kg, while Wando leads the price of 1kg size. These estimation result as whole indicate that outlook project for olive flounder has accomplished the intended goals.

델파이 기법을 적용한 수산업·어촌 정책방향 연구

이헌동 ( Heon-dong Lee ),김대영 ( Dae-young Kim ) 한국수산경영학회 2018 수산경영론집 Vol.49 No.3

This study is aimed at finding policy directions for Korean fisheries and fishing villages by using Delphi method for fisheries experts. Fisheries experts have highly evaluated the achievements of fostering aquaculture industry, seafood export support measures, and natural disasters relief and recovery arrangements among the policies promoted as so far. And it was recognized that policies such as fishery resources management, creation and recovery of fishery resources, improvement hygiene and seafood safety, and provision young fishermen with training and capacity building will be important. Future megatrends, for example changes in food consumption pattern, climate change, and demographic structure changes are expected to have a significant impact on fisheries and fishing villages. The Delphi survey indicates that the most important policy objective is to secure a stable fisheries production. In other words, fisheries policy in the future should be aimed at suppling sustainable seafood for popular consumption. Finding strategies and action plans that can achieve this goal will be an important policy issue. In conclusion, it is necessary that a number of fundamental researches carry out in Korea, which can lead to finding out a multifunctionality of fisheries and fishing village. In addition, it is important to expand the scope of fisheries policy, which can consider not only the fisheries producers but also seafood consumer’s and young fishermen perspectives. Furthermore, it recommends that fishery policy needs to include fishery related industry as well as application of 4th industrial revolution technology to fishery

양식넙치 산지-도매가격간 비대칭적 가격전이 분석

이헌동 ( Heon-dong Lee ),마창모 ( Chang-mo Ma ) 한국수산경영학회 2020 수산경영론집 Vol.51 No.4

The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate whether asymmetric price transmission exists in the distribution stage of farmed olive flounder market. For the analysis, time series data were used for the producer prices of Jeju and Wando, and the wholesale prices of Incheon, Hanam and Busan. Through the Granger causality test, the causal relationship from the producer price to the wholesale price was derived and the asymmetric price transmission was analyzed using the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL). As a result of the analysis, it was found that there is a phenomenon of ‘positive asymmetric price transmission’ from the producer price to the wholesale price. This result can be one evidence that excess profits are received in the intermediate distribution stage, and can be said to be a result showing the incompleteness and inefficiency of the distribution structure of the farmed olive flounder. In the future, it is required to establish an information-sharing system in all stages of production, distribution, and consumption that can create a competitive environment for distribution participants and resolve information asymmetry. Also, it is necessary to review the distribution center specializing in live fish from the viewpoint of the establishment of new distribution channels and sales diversification strategy under the rapidly changing fisheries environment.

김 수급 전망모형 구축에 관한 연구

이헌동 ( Lee¸ Heon-dong ),허수진 ( Heo¸ Su-jin ),하현정 ( Ha¸ Hyun-jung ) 한국도서(섬)학회 2020 韓國島嶼硏究 Vol.32 No.4

김은 우리나라 수산물 생산과 수출에 있어서의 위상, 양식어업인의 소득원으로서 지역경제에 미치는 영향이 매우 큰 수산물이다. 그러나 산업적 중요성에도 불구하고 자연재해로 인한 시설피해, 해양환경 변화, 고수온에 따른 작황 부진 등으로 수급의 변동성이 매우 큰 품목이다. 이에 따라 김에 대한 수급 정보를 수집·분석하여 시장관계자들에게 제공하는 수산업관측사업이 2004년부터 추진되고 있다. 김 관측사업을 통해 공신력 있는 전망정보를 제공하기 위해서는 과학적이고 정교한 계량경제모형의 구축이 무엇보다 중요하며, 이러한 목적에서 한국해양수산개발원 수산업관측센터는 2014년에 김 수급 전망모형을 개발, 현재까지 운용해오고 있다. 그러나 구축 이후 모형의 구조 개선, 방정식의 재추정, 예측력 향상 등이 이루어지지 않아 전망모형의 활용도가 낮아지는 문제가 제기되었다. 이에 따라 본 연구는 김 수급 전망모형의 이론적 정합성, 현실 설명력, 정책적 활용도를 높이기 위한 개편의 일환으로 수행되었다. 새롭게 구축된 전망모형은 김 시설량 결정모형, 단수 결정모형, 생산량 월별 분배모형, 수출량 결정모형, 재고량 결정모형, 도매가격 결정모형, 산지가격 결정모형과 같이 총 7개의 하위모형이 연립방정식체계를 구성하도록 설계되었다. 모형 추정에 있어서는 추정계수의 부호가경제학적 이론에 부합되고, 통계적 유의수준이 최소 10% 이내이며, 조정된 결정계수가 가장 높게 추정된 결과를 채택하였다. 그리고 자기상관 문제를 고려, 더빈-왓슨 통계량이 2에 근접하는 추정결과를 채택하였다. 모형의 추정결과, 전체적인 설명력, 추정계수의 통계적 유의성, 예측력이 기존 모형에 비해 크게 개선되었다. 향후 김 수급 전망모형의 고도화, 정책 활용도를 제고하기 위해서는 첫째, 최소 2년 주기로 김 수급 전망모형에 대한 지속적인 개편이 요구된다. 전망모형은 구축도 중요하지만 일정 주기를 갖고 개편이 수반되어야 전망모형으로서의 가치와 활용도를 높일 수 있기 때문이다. 둘째, 현재 김 수급 전망모형은 생산량, 가격 전망에 초점을 맞추고 있으나, 향후 다양한 정책 시뮬레이션 기능을 보강하는 것에 주안점을 둘 필요가 있다. 셋째, 전망모형에 투입되는 통계 DB의 정확성을 제고하고, 신규 통계를 개발하여 전망모형에 활용하기 위한 노력이 요구된다. Gim(laver/dried seaweed) is one of the most important items in the production and export of seafood in Korea. As a source of income for aquaculture households, it has a great effect on the local economy. Despite this industrial importance, it shows very high fluctuations in supply and demand due to the facilities' damage from natural disasters, high water temperatures, and yield conditions. Accordingly, a fishery outlook project, which collects and analyzes the supply and demand information for Gim, and provides it to market participants, has been carried out since 2004. It is important to establish a more robust econometric model for the outlook project to provide reliable forecasting information. For this purpose, the Korea Maritime Institute(Fisheries outlook center) developed a supply and demand forecasting model in 2014 and has been operating it until now. However, there are some problems that the availability of the model was lowered because the reorganization of the forecasting model was not performed. This study was conducted as part of a restructuring process to increase the theoretical consistency, realistic explanatory power, and policy utilization of the forecasting model. The new forecasting model consists of seven sub-models, such as the number of facilities, unit yield, distribution of production, exports, inventory, wholesale prices, and farm prices. As a result of the estimation, it is significantly improved compared to the existing model on the overall explanatory power, statistical significance of estimation coefficients, and predictive power. In order to advance the forecasting model and improve the utilization of policies, it is necessary to reorganize for at least two years, and to reinforce various policy simulation functions. Also, efforts to improve the accuracy of statistics used in the model and to utilize new statistics are required.

고령화가 가계의 수산식품 소비지출에 미치는 영향 분석

이헌동 ( Heon Dong Lee ),안병일 ( Byeong Il Ahn ) 한국식품유통학회 2016 食品流通硏究 Vol.33 No.1

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the determinants of consumption and expenditure on seafood for the elderly households. Household level micro-data from 1990 to 2013 is used for the analyses. For the empirical implementations, Heckman``s sample selection model is applied to control the selection bias. Estimation results show that elderly households have higher probability to purchase seafoods than non-elderly households but spend less amount of money on seafoods. It is estimated that seafood consumption of unhealthy elderly households is relatively lower than that of healthyelderly households.

PB 가공식품 및 간편식 소비의 결정요인 분석

이헌동(Heon-Dong Lee),안병일(Byeong-Il Ahn) 한국농식품정책학회 2016 농업경영정책연구 Vol.43 No.2

This study analyzes determinants of the consumption of private brand and convenience food using survey data of Consumers’ Attitude toward Processed Food provided by Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation. Based on the survey questionnaire regarding the food consumption lifestyle, 7 factors of taste, price, time, material, nutrition, food safety and brand are identified as the determinants of the food consumption. Probit model is applied to analyze the purchasing pattern of private brand food and Heckman 2 steps model is utilized for the investigation of the consumption pattern of convenience food. Estimation results indicate that ‘time’ is the most important determinant in consuming convenience food while ‘price’ influences most strongly the consumption of private brand food.

수산연구개발사업의 성과 결정요인 분석 : 수특사업을 중심으로

이헌동(Lee Heon-dong),김정봉(Kim Jung-bong) 한국해양수산개발원 2008 해양정책연구 Vol.23 No.2

The objective of this study is to analyze the determinants of performance about fisheries-specific R&D projects. R&D performance is measured by four indices: patent registration, SCI publication, technology transfer, and policy application. The achievements of 447 projects funded by Korea Institute of Marine Science & Technology Promotion(KIMST) are analyzed. A binary logit model is constructed and estimated to identify the variables that affect the probability of four indices. The major findings and consequences of this study can be summarized as follows : First of all, patent registrations & SCI publications are mainly derived from the high technology projects among five technology types. Secondly, a company's participation in projects is the most important factor to promote the technology transfer. Thirdly, it is shown that the researches related to the technologies of processing-distribution and fisheries resource are more likely to succeed in transferring technology and obtain more economic outcomes than any other research types. Fourthly, the performances of policy application are mainly derived from the marine environments and fisheries policy types rather than any other technology types. These results provide the following implications. A balance of budget level for R&D projects is needed for promoting Fisheries-Specific R&D Projects and a scientific assessment system for research should be prepared.

수산물 저온유통의 속성별 지불의사금액 추정 -고등어를 중심으로

이헌동 ( Heon Dong Lee ),주문배 ( Moon Bae Joo ) 한국수산경영학회 2009 수산경영론집 Vol.40 No.2

수산물 수급통계 실태 및 개선과제

이헌동 ( Heon-dong Lee ),김대영 ( Dae-young Kim ) 한국수산경영학회 2017 수산경영론집 Vol.48 No.2

The purpose of this study is to identify problems and suggest improvements of estimating procedures and item of fisheries supply-demand statistics served as a basis for the fisheries supply-demand policies. Korea Rural Economic Institute(KREI) and Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries(MOF) respectively publish the fisheries supply-demand statistics. But the reliability of data is low as the statistics of these two organizations are limited and show discrepancy in the numbers. It is therefore difficult to use them as the basic data for policies. Also, an accurate data aggregation is difficult due to following problems in the items of statistics. 1) Problems in estimating route sales and non-route sales of production, 2) adequacy of fishery product yield rate compared to raw material in the fisheries import/export sector, 3) selection of target companies for understand stocks and survey scope of fish species, 4) applying`0`to non-edible product demand etc. In order to develop the fisheries industry as a future growth industry, it is necessary to establish the accurate fisheries supply-demand policy as the instability of fisheries supply and demand is increasing. To do this, statistical reliability has to be improved. The improvements proposed in this study should be implemented considering urgency. First of all, an exhaustive analysis of stock statistics and conversion rates of raw material yield in the fisheries import/export sector should be conducted. In the medium term and the long term, transferring production statistics to MOF and surveys on the use demand of non-food product and the level of reduced and discarded seafood products should be carried out in consecutive order.

실물옵션을 이용한 구조용 집성재 생산 방식에서의 투자의사 결정 연구

이헌동 ( Heon-dong Lee ),안병일 ( Byeong-il Ahn ),심국보 ( Kug-bo Shim ),최용석 ( Yong-seok Choi ),김건호 ( Keon-ho Kim ) 한국농업경제학회 2016 農業經濟硏究 Vol.57 No.3

Using real option approach, this study analyzes the economical efficiency for introducing a high-frequency heating machinery in the production of glued laminated wood for building framework. The critical points for an investment are derived by considering the uncertainty of selling price and various situations of productivity increase due to the installation of new machinery. Analytical results show that the selling price of glued laminated wood have to be at least 5,880won/ton for 5% increase in the productivity, 1,960won/ton for 15% increase in the pro-ductivity, and 1,176won/ton for 25% increase in the productivity due to the installation of new machinery. These analytical results suggest that the companies producing glued laminated wood have to be cautious when they introduce the new technology of high-frequency heating, since there is high uncertainty in the price and irreversibility for the investment. The risk of the price and productivity for glued laminated wood suggests that government`s support would facilitate the adoption of the technology of high-frequency heating.