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아시안하이웨이 6번 노선의 국제여객 교통수단선택에 관한 연구
이백진,이세홍,이윤석,이덕환,Lee, Back Jin,Lee, Se Hong,Lee, Yun Seok,Lee, Deok Hwan 대한토목학회 2015 대한토목학회논문집 Vol.35 No.4
본 연구는 남북한간 교류협력 증진과 국제협력사업 활성화에 따라 향후 동북아 차원에서 연계가 예상되는 아시안하이웨이 6번노선(간성-선봉)의 이용을 가정하고, 현존하지 않는 북한 육로망 연계에 따른 한반도 주변의 국제여객수송 행태 변화를 분석하였다. 이를 위해 SP(Stated Preference), RP(Revealed Preference) 자료를 기반으로 다항로짓(ML)과 네스티드로짓(NL) 모형을 구축하였다. NL모형을 통해 분석한 결과, 현재 한중(동북부), 한러(극동러시아)간 국제여객수송 대부분이 육상로 단절로 인해 항공을 통해 이루어지나, AH6노선이 구축될 경우에는 약 90%이상이 육상운송으로 전환될 것으로 분석되었다. 또한, 여객수송거리가 길어질수록(903~1,631km) 국제철도의 수단분담률은 62.8%에서 66.1%로 증가하고, 이 때 도로수송은 29.6%에서 21.9%로 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 반면, 항공수송은 육상수송과는 달리 수송 거리대별 증감경향이 뚜렷하게 나타나지 않고, 약 10% 수준의 수단분담률을 나타내는 것으로 추정되었다. By promoting the international transportation and the improvement of advanced exchange between South and North Korea, the Asian Highway plan was expected to make considerable economical effects in the North-East Asian region. This study focuses on a part of AH6 route (i.e., South Korea-North Korea-China-Far East Russia) and aims to analyze the behavioral change of international passenger transport around the Korean Peninsula by assuming the non-existent North Korea land transport network connectivity. The study was performed using two main methods. First, a stated preference survey was performed to derive the actual modal share of each travel mode. Second, a disaggregate analysis was performed to develop possible mode-choice models for international passenger travel and find out the suitable choice. Based on the results of the model estimation, it is found that over 90% of the international passenger transport would be converted to land transport (rail+highway). In addition, international railroad modal share rate would be increased from 62.8% to 66.1% and international bus would be decreased from 29.6% to 21.9% as the distance lengthened (903km~1,631km).
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0.2% 불화나트륨용액으로 4년간 양치한 초등학교 아동의 영구치우식증 예방효과
이세홍,박인순,김지영,김진범 대한구강보건학회 2001 大韓口腔保健學會誌 Vol.25 No.4
Supervised weekly fluoride mouthrinsing programme with 0.2 percent neutral sodium fluoride solution has been implemented at primary schools in Pusan, Korea since 1995. 260,734 children of 259 schools join the fluoride mouthrinsing programme in 1999. To estimate caries preventive effect, epidemiological dental survey was undertaken in 1999 for 10-year-old children joining the fluoride mouthrinsing programme for four school years until 1998 and 10-year-old children not joining the programme until 1998. Subjects were 322 children joining the programme and 512 children in control schools. The obtained results were as follows. 1. Children who experienced caries on permanent teeth were 73.6% in fluoride mouthrinsing group and 83.2% in control group. 2. The DMFT scores were 2.67 in fluoride mouthrinsing group and 3.49 in control group. The difference of DWFT scores was 0.82 between fluoride mouthrinsing group and control group. The caries reduction rate was 22.9% by fluoride mouthrinsing programme. 3. Filled teeth among total DMFT scores were 37.2% in fluoride mouthrinsing group and 32.2% in control group. 4. The caries reduction rates were comparatively high at anterior teeth and the lowest at upper and lower first molars by fluoride mouthrinsing programme. 5. The percentages of sound teeth at upper lateral incisors, upper and lower first premolars, upper second premolars, upper and lower first molars and upper and lower second molars in fluoride mouthrinsing group were significantly higher than control group. 6. The fluoride mouthrinsing programme should be developed at 4- to 5- year old children in nursery schools and all children in junior high schools as well as all primary schools.
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