The Asymptotic Equivalence of the Iterative Least Squares Estimators and the Extended Yule-Walker Estimators of the AR Parameters for Stationary ARMA Models

이성백(Seong Baek Yi),최병선(Byoung Seon Choi) 연세대학교 경제연구소 1997 延世經濟硏究 Vol.4 No.2

The Choleaky Decomposition and the Maximum Entropy Probability Density of a Stationary Process

이성백(Seong Baek Yi),최병선(Byoung Seon Choi) 연세대학교 경제연구소 1997 延世經濟硏究 Vol.4 No.2

사회연결망분석을 이용한 확률분포들의 이용빈도 구조에 대한 연구

장대흥,이성백,Jang, Dae-Heung,Yi, Seong-Baek 한국통계학회 2011 응용통계연구 Vol.24 No.6

본 논문에서 포털사이트의 정보를 이용한 사회연결망분석을 통하여 통계학 책에서 주로 언급되는 확률분포들의 종류와 쓰임새에 대한 설명이 일상생활에서 언급되는 확률분포들과 어떤 관계가 있는 지 알아본다. 이를 통하여 우리들의 일상생활을 염두에 둘 때 통계학 책에서 강조하여야 할 확률분포들에 대하여 알아본다. Through social network analysis using portal site information, we study the relation of the probability distributions that appear in statistics textbooks with probability distributions that appear in daily life. Based on daily life, we discuss probability distributions that must be emphasized in frequent use.

연체율의 분석을 통한 효율적인 소상공인 금융지원에 대한 고찰

이유태 ( You Tay Lee ),이성백 ( Seong Baek Yi ) 한국금융공학회 2012 한국금융공학회 학술발표회 Vol.2012 No.-

본 연구는 소상공인에 대한 금융지원인 정부의 정책자금과 일반 은행 대출의 실질연체율의 비교·분석을 통하여 국가 전체의 균형발전의 관점에서 소상공인의 경쟁력 향상을 위한 효율적인 금융지원을 어떻게 하여야 하는 가를 조사하였다. 분석결과에 나타난 주요 특징을 요약하면 첫째, 2008년을 제외하고는 정책자금의 연체율이 일반 은행 대출의 연체율보다 통계적으로 의미 있게 낮았으며 둘째, 정책자금과 일반 은행 대출 두 지원방법 다 지방은행의 실질연체율이 시중은행의 실질연체율보다 의미 있게 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 또한 전국에서 유일하게 별도로 자영업지원센터를 운영하는 지방P은행의 경우다른 지방은행과 비교해서도 낮았지만, 특히 시중은행과는 더욱 현저히 차이가 나서 그 차이가 일반 은행 대출의 경우 0.822%에 이르는 것으로 조사되었다. 소상공인을 금융 지원하는 정부의 정책자금과 일반 은행 대출의 실질연체율을 비교·분석한 결과를 요약하면 소상공인을 지원함에 있어 컨설팅과 교육을 연결하여 대출을 실시하고 자율적이고 시장 원리에 맞는 지역 금융시스템을 구축해나갈 필요가 있다는 것이다. 일반 은행은 지난 10 여년간 일선에서 소상공인을 지원하면서 많은 경험과 인프라를 축적한 소상공인 지원센터 시스템 및 상담사의 상담 능력을 벤치마킹하여 대출과 연계하고 현재 정책자금을 실시하는 중요 주체인 소상공인 진흥원 및 소상공인지원센터는 보다 효율적인 금융지원이 될 수 있도록 더욱 컨설팅 및 교육 인프라를 확충하는게 중요하다는 것이 본 연구 결과가 시사하는 바이다. This study analyzed the way for efficient financial support to improve the competitiveness of small business through the comparison of the loan default rates between the government fund and bank`s loan for small business in the view of national balanced economy. Important findings are as follows: 1) the loan default rate for government fund is lower than that of bank`s loan for small enterprise except the year of 2008, 2) the loan default rate of local banks is lower than that of nationwide banks, and 3)the loan default rate of the local ``P bank`` which operates the supporting center for small business is significantly lower than that of nationwide banks. The difference amounted to 0.822% for banks loan. The loan default rate of the local ``P bank`` is lower than that of other local banks, too. It is concluded that the financial support for small business works better with the appropriate consulting and education and local financial system needs to be constructed in accordance with the economic principle. This paper emphasizes the importance of banks`s loan for small enterprise coupled with the expertise of the Small Enterprise Development System which has been accumulated over the last 10 years by serving the small enterprises. In addition, the Small Enterprise Development System which oversees the government fund needs to intensify the consulting and educational infrastructure for the efficient financial support for small business.

일반논문 : 연체율의 분석을 통한 효율적인 소상공인 금융지원에 대한 고찰

이유태 ( You Tay Lee ),이성백 ( Seong Baek Yi ) 한국중소기업학회 2012 中小企業硏究 Vol.34 No.3

본 연구는 소상공인에 대한 금융지원인 정부의 정책자금과 일반 은행 대출의 실질연체율의 비교?분석을 통하여 국가 전체의 균형발전의 관점에서 소상공인의 경쟁력 향상을 위한 효율적인 금융지원을 어떻게 하여야 하는 가를 조사하였다. 분석결과에 나타난 주요 특징을 요약하면 첫째, 2008년을 제외하고는 정책자금의 연체율이 일반 은행 대출의 연체율보다 통계적으로 의미 있게 낮았으며 둘째, 정책자금과 일반 은행 대출 두 지원방법 다 지방은행의 실질연체율이 시중은행의 실질연체율보다 의미 있게 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 또한 전국에서 유일하게 별도로 자영업지원센터를 운영하는 지방 P은행의 경우 다른 지방은행과 비교해서도 낮았지만, 특히 시중은행과는 더욱 현저히 차이가 나서 그 차이가 일반 은행 대출의 경우 0.822%에 이르는 것으로 조사되었다. 소상공인을 금융 지원하는 정부의 정책자금과 일반 은행 대출의 실질연체율을 비교·분석한 결과를 요약 하면 소상공인을 지원함에 있어 컨설팅과 교육을 연결하여 대출을 실시하고 자율적이고 시장 원리에 맞는 지역 금융시스템을 구축해나갈 필요가 있다는 것이다. 일반 은행은 지난 10여 년간 일선에서 소상공인을 지원하면서 많은 경험과 인프라를 축적한 소상공인 지원센터 시스템 및 상담사의 상담 능력을 벤치마킹하여 대출과 연계하고 현재 정책자금을 실시하는 중요 주체인 소상공인 진흥원 및 소상공인지원센터는 보다 효율적인 금융지원이 될 수 있도록 더욱 컨설팅 및 교육 인프라를 확충하는 게 중요하다는 것이 본 연구 결과가 시사하는 바이다. This study analyzed the way for efficient financial support to improve the competitiveness of small enterprise through the comparison of the loan default rates between the policy fund and banks loan for small enterprise in light of national balanced economy. Important findings are as follows. 1) The default rate of the policy fund is lower than that of the banks loan for small enterprise except the year of 2008 and the difference among the default rates fetches to 0.243%. The difference in the default rates outstands in 2011. It may be due to the fact that the policy fund changes to the priority system which subsidizes the people first who took education and consulting courses beginning 2010. The financial support associated with education and consulting is expected to perform better than that without education and consulting in terms of the loan default rate. The fact that the interest rate of the policy fund is lower than that of banks loan could result in the lower default rate for the policy fund. Yet low interest rate turns out to be not related with low default rate in this analysis. Thus, it can be concluded that the financial support associated with education and consulting is superior to the other case. 2) The loan default rate of local banks is lower than that of nationwide banks across the policy fund and the bank loans. The difference in the loan default rate by local banks and nationwide banks amounts to 0.384% for the policy fund and 0.605% for banks loan. The result indicates that the loan to small enterprise is regionally oriented since small enterprise is based on the region. 3) The loan default rate of the local ``P Bank`` which operates the consulting center on its own for small enterprise is significantly lower than that of nationwide banks. The difference in the default rates amounted to 0.822%. Besides there was no notable difference across the policy fund and banks loan for ``P Bank.`` The loan default rate of the local ``P bank`` is lower than that of the other local banks, too. Therefore, the lower default rate of the policy fund is attributable to consulting and education system, not to lower interest rate set by the policy. It is concluded that the financial support for small enterprise works better with the appropriate consulting and education and local financial system needs to be constructed in accordance with this findings. It has been reported that the policy fund increases the sales volume of small enterprise and the fund has positive effect on the performance of management for small enterprise. But the policy fund can`t accomodate all of 2.7 million of small enterprise in Korea. Banks loan take most of loan to small enterprise. Therefore, The financial support under frequent start and closure of small enterprises these days needs to be associated with the appropriate consulting and education for the balanced economy as a whole. The outstanding banks loan to small enterprise now reached over 100 trillion won. If the default rate of bank loan ever rise, it gives much more financial distress to the banks. As a result, the national economy will surely suffer. The banks need to benchmark the expertise of the Small Enterprise Development System which has been accumulated over the last 20 years by serving numerous small enterprises. In addition, the Small Enterprise Development System which oversees the policy fund also needs to intensify the consulting and educational infrastructure for the efficient financial support to small enterprise in Korea. This paper finds that the superiority of the policy fund to the banks loan is attributable not to the lower interest rate of the policy fund, but to the role of the counsellor at the Small Enterprise Development System which provides the consulting and education and shows the way to the efficient financial system to strengthen the competitiveness of small enterprise in the future. When small enterprise borrows take loan from banks, the criteria for loan decision by banks should be based on its pure creditability. For regional financial system in accordance with spontaneous economic principle to work properly, the banks need to develop credit rating model associated with stylized and standard abilities of the counsellors at the Small Enterprise Development System. It is crucial since small enterprise, especially at the beginning stage in its business, does not have enough sound financial data for applying for banks loan. As a matter of fact, many of start-ups are excluded even from the policy fund since the lending process of the policy fund also puts a lot of emphasis on quantitative figure such sales volume, net income, etc. Therefore the policy fund tends to be not properly served according to its original purpose of aiding start-ups of small enterprises. The policy fund rather subsidizes mature small enterprises with good financial status. Considering that there is a great need for money at the beginning stage of small enterprise, the policy fund and banks loan need to be allocated more to start-ups rather than to growing enterprise with better statistics in terms of sales volume and managerial environment. The appropriate credit rating model needs to be developed by incorporating the evaluation and recommendation by the counsellors at the Small Enterprise Development System. The banks loan does not differentiate between small enterprise and an individual or self-employed although the government puts much energy in supporting small enterprise including making the law for small enterprise explicitly. Therefore, banks loan system needs to be coordinated in accordance with government policy for the competitiveness of small enterprise in light of national balanced economy, which in turn makes the aid more effective and efficient. This study yet has limitations in that the differences in default rates between the banks loan and the policy fund are compared in univariate way for each category of industries, interest rates, gender, age, the business history, etc. To analyze the determinants of the default rates of loan in more comprehensive way, multivariate regression analysis needs to be employed by designating the default rate as a dependent variable and industries, interest rates, gender, age, ways of supporting aids, the business history, etc. as independent variables. The data including financial statements for small enterprise in Korea is hardly available for the quantitative analysis such as regression analysis. Small sample of 7 banks analyzed, missing data, outliers, etc. are also restrictions for this analysis. It is advised that in future study more number of banks and more data after 2011 need to be analyzed to reach more meaningful conclusion for efficient way of financial support to small enterprise in terms of national economy.

국제경제 : 일본 외환시장과 주식시장 수익간의 관련성분석: 금융위기와 비금융위기 시기 상호비교를 중심으로

이근재 ( Keun Jae Lee ),조남형 ( Nam Hyung Cho ),주세우 ( Shi You Zhu ),이성백 ( Seong Baek Yi ) 국제지역학회 2010 국제지역연구 Vol.14 No.1

본 연구는 1995년 1월 04부터 2009년 8월 30일까지 일본의 주식시장과 외환시장의 일별자료를 이용하여 두 시장의 수익률, 변동성 및 상관관계를 분석하였다. 특히, 전체 분석대상 기간을 아시아 금융위기 이전시기, 아시아 금융위기 시기, 그 이후부터 서브프라임 사태에 의한 금융위기 발발이전 시기 그리고 서브프라임사태에 의한 금융위기시기로 각각 구분하여 비교분석하였으며, 실증모형은 이변량(Bivariate) GJR-GARCH(1,1)을 가정하여 추정하였다. 실증분석의 주요한 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 각 시기별로 수익률의 평균방정식과 분산방정식의 추정결과가 상당히 다르게 나타났으며 둘째 금융위기 시기에 주식시장의 시장비효율성이 증가하고 과거의 예측하지 못한 변동성 충격에 시장이 훨씬 민감하게 반응하며, 특히 나쁜 뉴스에 의한 변동성 충격에 훨씬 많은 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 금융위기의 시기 중에서도 변동성 충격, 비대칭성 등의 측면에서 보면 아시아 금융위기보다는 최근에 발생한 전 세계적 금융위기의 기간에 보다 뚜렷하게 나타났다. 넷째. 전체적으로 두 시장의 상관관계는 대체로 정의 관계가 있는 것으로 나타났으며 이는 일본경제가 상대적으로 금융투자처로서의 매력보다는 일본 경제 전체에 실물부문의 중요성이 상대적으로 높기 때문에 나타난 현상으로 보인다. 특히 최근의 서브프라임 사태에 의한 전세계적 금융위기 기간 동안 두시장의 정의 상관관계는 더욱 심화되는 것으로 나타났다. This paper analyses interaction between yen/dollar exchange rates and NIKKEI index using bivariate GJR-GARCH(1,1) model. The data employed for the study is daily data series for the period of Jan. 4, 1995 through Aug. 30, 2009. One of main findings is that market inefficiency appears in the periods of financial crisis. Second, the volatility of exchange rates and stock returns has more increased in the wake of the volatility shock of the previous period during financial crisis than during non-financial crisis. Third, interestingly, the asymmetric volatility shock by bad news in those markets is bigger in financial crisis period than in non financial crisis. Fourth, in the period of current global financial crisis triggered by subprime mortgage crisis in U.S, volatility shock at the previous period is bigger than that of Asian financial crisis that happened in 1997. Lastly, the correlation between both returns of exchange rates and stock prices turns up positive according to the empirical estimation. This result may come from the fact that Japanese stock market does not have much attraction for international financial investment compared to stock markets of neighbouring countries like China, Korea arid so on, while real sector`s contribution to the economy is considered more importantly.