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안상억,이효상,전민우 한국방재학회 2009 한국방재학회논문집 Vol.9 No.5
A prediction of streamflow based on multi-objective function is presented to check the performance of Probability Distributed Model(PDM) in Miho stream basin, Chungcheongbuk-do, Korea. PDM is a lumped conceptual rainfall runoff model which has been widely used for flood prevention activities in UK Environmental Agency. The Monte Carlo Analysis Toolkit(MCAT) is a numerical analysis tools based on population sampling, which allows evaluation of performance, identifiability, regional sensitivity and etc. PDM is calibrated for five model parameters by using MCAT. The results show that the performance of model parameters(cmax and k(q)) indicates high identifiability and the others obtain equifinality. In addition, the multi-objective function is applied to PDM for seeking suitable model parameters. The solution of the multi-objective function consists of the Pareto solution accounting to various trade-offs between the different objective functions considering properties of hydrograph. The result indicated the performance of model and simulated hydrograph are acceptable in terms on Nash Sutcliffe Effciency*(=0.035), FSB(=0.161), and FDBH(=0.809) to calibration periods, validation periods as well. 본 연구는 미호천 유역을 대상으로 유량곡선의 세부적인 특성을 고려한 다목적함수를 적용하여 Probability Distribution Model(PDM) 모형의 유량모의성능을 검토하였다. PDM은 유역을 한 개의 단위구역으로 개념화한 집중형 강우유출모형으로 영국의 지역화 연구 및 홍수량 산정방법에 대표적으로 이용되고 있다. PDM 모형의 5개 매개변수를 Monte Carlo 방법에 기반을 둔 분석도구(MCAT, Monte Carlo Analysis Toolkit)를 활용하여 사후검정분포, 검정근거 및 민감도 분석 등을 수행하였으며, 모형의 매개변수 중 cmax와 k(q)만이 뚜렷한 검정 근거가 있고 나머지 변수들은 동등성의 영향을 확인하였다. 또한, 유량곡선의 고유량 및 저유량의 특성을 맞춘 목적함수의 Trade-off를 고려한 매개변수의 파레토 최적해를 산정한 결과, 모든 목적에 최대한 부합하는 유량 산정의 가능성을 제시하였다. 검정(calibration)기간에서 NSE*=0.035, FSB=0.161, FDBH= 0.809로 안정적이며 만족할만한 모의성능을 나타내었고, 검증(validation)기간에 대해서도 안정적인 모의성능을 나타내었다.
충청북도 초강 유역의 관측자료를 바탕으로 한 유출특성분석
안상억,이승민,이효상,천호권 한국산학기술학회 2023 한국산학기술학회논문지 Vol.24 No.11
There is increasing risks in water-resources management in South Korea due to large-scale floods and droughts in recent years. A detailed analysis of water budget in catchment scale is required. Hydrological data including precipitation, stream flow, and evapotranpiration, are highly valuable and crucial for water resource studies. Chogang catchment in Chungbuk is important because evapotranspiration data have been measured at the Yuelli site in the catchment since 2019. This study analyzed the water balance and flow duration curve with measured hydrological data in the period of 2019-2021. The water balance analysis shows the potential of period analysis in the flood season (June-September) and non-flood season (October-May). The runoff ratio (runoff/rainfall) was 0.53, 0.56, and 0.43 in a year, in the flood season, and in the non-flood season, respectively. A runoff ratio of 0.42 should be applied for water resource management in the Chogang. This is smaller than South Korea's general runoff ratio of 0.6. The ratio of the observed empirical emission (AET) to potential evapotranspiration (PET) differed between the non-flood period (0.63, 0.75, 0.79, and 0.72) and the flood season (1.25, 1.29, 1.49, and 0.72), indicating that AET is greater than PET in summer due to sufficient water supply and active plant growth. The coefficients for actual and potential evapotranspiration were 1.2 and 0.7 for the flood period and non-flood period, respectively. In the future, reliable runoff characteristics of mountainous basins in Chungcheongbuk-do will be suggested based on the accumulation of hydrological observation data within the basin.
이효상,김동영,천호권,안상억 한국산학기술학회 2024 한국산학기술학회논문지 Vol.25 No.2
New design of stepping stones is suggested in public infra-structures in water-environmental area with a concept of Nudge in behavioral economics. The stepping stone, which is frequently used in daily life, is a dangerous facility which causes death incident in flood events. It is a common public facility that is difficult to manage due to its large number in nation wide. The fatal accidents of people fall in the middle of the steeping stone have occurred every years since 2000, such as a death case of Ulsan in 2023. This study presents a new design in which the ends of the steeping stones are little lower than the central part, in order to cause a small inconvenience to the users and allow them to make better choices to avoid uisng dagerous stepping stone on their own. This both ends of the stepping stones is flooded in low water level leading a situation in which shoes of people can get wet before the river water level reaches a dangerous level. This design induces people to voluntarily avoid. using this stepping stones. A survey was conducted with 100 people of 20s using a Google form to conform its effectiveness. The results show that respondents who will cross the stepping stone if the stepping stone entrance of the stepping stone was submerged down 10% from 64%. New designs of public infra-structures using Nudge theory, such as stepping stone, will make our river environments more safe from disasters in near future.
충북 보청천 유역의 유출 분석을 통한 초소수력 에너지 평가
천호권(Ho-Kwon Cheon),임유리(Yu-Ri Lim),안상억(Sang-Eok Ahn),이효상(Hyo-Sang Lee) 한국산학기술학회 2023 한국산학기술학회논문지 Vol.24 No.9
최근 탄소 저감 및 탄소 중립화를 위한 재생에너지 개발은 활발히 연구되고 있으며, 특히 자연 친화적인 초소수력 개발이 주목받고 있다. 본 연구에서는 한반도의 중부지방에 있는 대표적인 소규모 산지 유역인 보청천 유역을 대상으로 유출 특성을 분석하고 소수력 발전의 개발 가능성을 평가한다. 대상 유역의 최근 30년간의 수문자료(1991~2022년, 보은기상관측소 및 기대 수위관측소) 및 GIS 자료를 통하여 유출 분석, 종단 선형 및 유황분석을 통하여 재생에너지 개발 부존량과 개발 가능성을 평가한다. 대상 유역의 기대교지점의 유출률은 약 56%이며, 대상 유역의 총에너지양은 14,832kWh며, 현재 하천 현황 아래에서 보 등을 활용한 개발 가능량은 평수랑(Q185, 5.2 m³/s)-약 270kWh), 갈수량 (Q355, 2.4 m³/s)- 123kWh다. 이를 통하여 소규모 산촌마을의 에너지 자립의 가능성을 보여주고 있다. Renewable energy has been researched to achieve the goal of neutralizing carbon emissions in recent decades. In particular, pico-hydropower is highlighted due to its low impact on the environment. This study estimated the potential and possibility of pico-hydropower based on catchment flow characteristics at a small mountainous catchment in Bocheong, South Korea. Hydrological data from Boen Meteorological station and Gidae flow observation station (1991-2022) were used for the runoff coefficient, flow duration analysis, etc. The results show that the potential energy and possible capacity of hydropower of the study catchment are 14,832 kWh and 270 kWh (at Q185, 5.2 m³/s), respectively. The minimum value of possible hydropower (at Q355, 2.4 m³/s) is 123 kWh, which shows that potential for the pico-hydropower development for a small villages in mountainous catchment.