지수평활모형간 정확도 비교: Pegels와 Gardner모형의 적용*

송근석,이충기 한국관광학회 2008 관광학연구 Vol.32 No.4

The primary purpose of this paper is to compare accuracy of various exponential smoothing models in order to suggest the best forecasting model, together with appling exponential smoothing model proposed by Pegels and Gardner. To this end, quarterly tourist time series data for Japanese and Chinese tourists were used from the period 1992:1-2007:4. Accuracy of forecasts was evaluated by the measures of MAPE and Theil's U statistics. The empirical results show that Pegels' and Gardner's models outperformed other competing smoothing models. In particular, multiplicative trend models for Chinese tourists performed best, while no trend and damped trend models outperformed other models in testing period.

단변량 시계열모형과 계량경제모형의 정확도 비교: 표본내 정확도와 표본후 정확도

송근석 한국관광학회 2007 관광학연구 Vol.31 No.4

The purpose of this paper is to compare accuracy among tourism forecasting models to predict tourism demand to South Korea from Japan and U.S.A. For this end, annual data from 1970 to 2000 were used for within sample accuracy, whereas data from 2001 to 2004 were employed for testing period in order to test post sample accuracy. The criterion used for testing accuracy is value of MAPE. The empirical results indicate that econometric model for Japan and exponential smoothing for USA performed best in terms of within sample accuracy, while naive 1 model for USA and ARIMA model for Japan outperformed others on the basis of ex post forecasting accuracy. The results suggest that no single forecasting method performs consistently best across within and post sample accuracies.핵심용어(Key words):표본내 정확도(within sample accuracy), 표본후 정확도(post sample accuracy), 단변량 시계열모형(univariate time series),계량경제모형(econometric model)

한국과 영국의 관광교육에 관한 비교연구

송근석,강영욱 한국관광정보학회 2001 觀光情報硏究 Vol.- No.8

Despite the rapid growth of tourism in Korea, only little amount of research on tourism education has been carried out in order to examine the nature of course provision and problem areas which need to be dealt with. The purpose of this research is to examine the development of tourism education at higher education level in Korea, focusing on a comparison with that of tourism education in the UK. It is also to produce a stepping stone for the improvement of tourism education in Korea. This study adopts two research approaches. One is a census of all known degree level tourism courses is undertaken through the examination of the institutions' Internet home pages and published sources. The other is a questionnaire survey is carried out to identify more information about tourism courses as well as issues on tourism education in Korea. From the research, the development of tourism education in Korea is set out, including the nature of current tourism courses as well as key issues on tourism education: growth and diversity of course provision. profiles of staff teaching tourism, the way of co-operation between institutions and the industry and so on. The importance of foreign languages (especially English) in most course contents in Korea is also identified. In short, there are many similarities in the development of tourism education in both countries, although the education system and the focus on course content are different. The study concludes not only with making suggestions on the future of tourism education, but also with making recommendations for the further research in order fully to draw the picture of tourism education in Korea.

성범죄 우범자 관리의 실태, 문제점 및 개선방안

송근석,노성호 원광대학교 경찰학연구소 2013 경찰학논총 Vol.8 No.2

최근 아동 및 부녀자들을 대상으로 한 성폭력 사건이 연이어 발생하면서 국민과 부녀자들의불 안감이 날로 커지고 있다. 그 일례로 최근 서울 중곡동에서 발생한 부녀자 살해사건의 경우전 자발찌를 착용한 성폭력 전력자에 의해 자행되는 등 우범자 관리가 제대로 되지 않아 언론에 서는 경찰의 치안력 부재까지 문제 삼아 경찰 불신이 정부의 책임으로까지 광범위하게 확산되 고 있는 실정이다. 성범죄를 비롯하여 많은 범죄들이 범죄전력이 있는 우범자들에 의해서 저 지르고 있는 것이 현실이다. 따라서 효과적인 범죄대책을 위해서 범죄의 경험이 있는 우범자 를효과적으로 관리하는 것이 중요함에도 현실적으로 그 관리가 제대로 이루어지지 못하고 있 다. 이에 이 연구에서는 이러한 연구의 필요성에 의해 현재 성폭력 등과 관련하여 경찰의 우범자 관리의 실태와 문제점, 개선방안을 살펴보고자 한다. 구체적으로 우범자관리에 관련된 경찰청 예규 「우범자 첩보수집 등에 관한 규칙」, 법무부에서 시행중인 전자감지제도(전자발찌),신 상공개 제도, 여성가족부에서 시행하고 있는 취업제한 제도 등의 운영 실태와 문제점을 살펴 봄에 있어서 우리나라 우범자들의 범죄유형별 재범률을 분석하고, 정부 부처별 우범자 관리 실태와 경찰의 성범죄 전력자 관리 근거, 법적 미비점으로 인한 문제점을 도출하고, 개선방안 으로 경찰관들이 인권의식 강화 및 법적 근거마련을 통한 효율적인 성폭력 우범자의 관리를 통한 사회적 안정을 모색하였다.

국내분리 오제스키병 바이러스로 비강접종한 야생집쥐(Rattus norvegicus)의 병리학적 소견 및 in situ hybridization에 의한 바이러스 동정

송근석,문운경,정창근,김순복,Song, Geun-seok,Moon, Oun-kyong,Jeong, Chang-geun,Kim, Soon-bok 대한수의학회 1999 大韓獸醫學會誌 Vol.39 No.3

The present study was carried out to investigate the pathogenicity and pathogenesis of wild rats(Rattus norvegicus), trapped in nature, intranasally infected with Aujeszky's disease virus(ADV/NYJ-1-87) by histopathology, immunohistochemistry and in situ hybridization(ISH). Fifteen rats inoculated intranasally were roughened haircoat, anorexia, listlessness, and depression second day after inoculation, and three rats died in 66-72 hours. Eight rats showed severe pruritus at the face that was accompanied by frequent face-washing movements of the forelegs, and then became violent and spasmodic for an hour or until they died. Four rats slowly recovered after showing mild clinical signs of the disease. Microscopic lesions in infected rats were characterized by meningitis, perivascular round cell infiltration, focal gliosis, and neuronal degeneration and necrosis. And intranuclear inclusion bodies were frequently detected in the cerebral cortex and medulla. Positive reaction to ADV by immunohistochemistry and ISH were detected in the following areas : trigermimal ganglion, brain, tonsil, nasal mucosa, spleen, lung and liver. The result has suggested that ADV intranasally infected in wild rats is followed by replication in epithelial calls of nasal mucosa and tonsil, then invade local lymph nodes by way of the lymphatics. It is also believed that the virus invades bipolar olfactory cells and trigerminal ganglion; and then spread into central nervous system.

英國産業革命의 前提條件에 관한 小考 : 農業을 중심으로

송근석 건국대학교 1981 商經論叢 Vol.- No.16

국제관광수요 결정요인에 관한 연구

송근석,송학준 한국호텔관광학회 2006 호텔관광연구 Vol.8 No.2

The purpose of this study has three folds. Firstly, it is to identify the determinants of international tourism demand to Korea from Japan. Secondly, it is to construct an international tourism demand model. Finally, it is to improve the efficiency of planning and implementing international tourism policy in Korea. Tourist arrivals were used as a dependent variable, while income, real exchange rates, industrial production index and dummies were used as independent variables. Unit root test was carried out to avoid spurious regression before using OLS regression method. The reason is that OLS method assumes that time series data are stationary. If time series data are non-stationary, the coefficients estimated by OLS regression will be unreliable. Therefore, OLS method was used after making time series data stationary. The results showed that industrial production variable was statistically significant. The elasticity was 2.87, which had the most influence in tourism demand from Japan to Korea. In the case of dummy variables, only two variables, political conflicts in 1974 and social unrest in 1980 were significant. Real GDP per capita as a proxy of income and real exchange rate were turned out to be insignificant.

필립스 曲線에 관한 小考

송근석 건국대학교 1982 商經論叢 Vol.- No.17

연구논문 : 관광수요 예측모형의 선정 시 표본후 예측의 중요성

송근석 ( Keun Seok Song ),이충기 ( Choong Ki Lee ) 대한관광경영학회 2007 觀光硏究 Vol.22 No.2

결합기법을 이용한 관광수요예측

송근석(Song Keun-Seok),이충기(Lee Choong-Ki) 한국관광레저학회 2009 관광레저연구 Vol.21 No.1