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박정도(Jeong-Do Park),송경빈(Kyung-Bin Song) 대한전기학회 2009 전기학회논문지 Vol.58 No.9
In general, short term load forecasting is based on the periodical load pattern during a day or a week. Therefore, the conventional methods do not expose stable performance to every day during a year. Especially for anomalous weather conditions such as typhoons, the methods have a tendency to show the conspicuous accuracy deterioration. Furthermore, the tendency raises the reliability and stability problems of the conventional load forecast. In this study, a new load forecasting method is proposed in order to increase the accuracy of the forecast result in case of anomalous weather conditions such as typhoons. For irregular weather conditions, the sensitivity between temperature and daily load is used to improve the accuracy of the load forecast. The proposed method was tested with the actual load profiles during 14 years, which shows that the suggested scheme considerably improves the accuracy of the load forecast results.
박정도(Jeong-Do Park),송경빈(Kyung-Bin Song) 대한전기학회 2013 전기학회논문지 Vol.62 No.4
Load forecasting is essential to the economical and the stable power system operations. In general, the forecasting days can be classified into weekdays, weekends, special days and special light-load periods in short-term load forecast. Special light-load periods are the consecutive holidays such as Lunar New Years holidays, Korean Thanksgiving holidays and summer special light-load period. For the weekdays and the weekends forecast, the conventional methods based on the statistics are mainly used and show excellent results for the most part. The forecast algorithms for special days yield good results also but its forecast error is relatively high than the results of the weekdays and the weekends forecast methods. For summer special light-load period, none of the previous studies have been performed ever before so if the conventional methods are applied to this period, forecasting errors of the conventional methods are considerably high. Therefore, short-term load forecast for summer special light-load period have mainly relied on the experience of power system operation experts. In this study, the trends of load profiles during summer special light-load period are classified into three patterns and new forecast algorithms for each pattern are suggested. The proposed method was tested with the last ten years’ summer special light-load periods. The simulation results show the excellent average forecast error near 2%.
박정도(Jeong-Do Park),이성환(Seong-Hwan Lee),도근영(Geun-Young Doe),성효성(Hyo-Seong Seong),장낙원(Nakwon Jang) 한국항해항만학회 2009 한국항해항만학회지 Vol.33 No.6
본 논문은 Newton-Rhapson법으로 조류계산을 하여 해양도시내 분산전원의 최적 설치점에 대해 연구하였다. 도시 내에 분산전원을 설치할 경우 대규모 발전소나 송전설비를 추가 건설하지 않고도 효율적으로 필요한 전력을 공급할 수 있는 장점이 있다. 따라서 전 세계적으로 분산전원은 도시 에너지원으로 주목받고 있다. 그러나 도시 내의 천원 설치지점 변경에 따른 전력손실 평가에 대한 연구는 미흡한 실정이다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 분산전원이 주변의 선로에 미치는 전력손실을 최소화 할 수 있도록, 분산전원의 최적 설치지점을 선정하는 방안을 제안한다. In this paper we suggest optimal positioning algorithm for DER(distributed energy resource)s near ocean s?de by using Newton-Rhapson load flow calculation By installing DERs w?thin urban area, electric power can be effectively transmitted to each loads without constructing additional large scale power stations and transmission lines. Therefore, DERs have attracted worldwide attention as urban area energy sources. However, there are quite a few studies for estimation of power loss due to DERs' location change within urban area Hence, in this study, an opt?mal positioning scheme for DERs ?s proposed in order to minimizing electrical power loss.
평일과 주말의 특성이 결합된 연휴전 평일에 대한 단기 전력수요예측
박정도(Jeong-Do Park),송경빈(Kyung-Bin Song),임형우(Hyeong-Woo Lim),박해수(Hae-Soo Park) 대한전기학회 2012 전기학회논문지 Vol.61 No.12
The accuracy of load forecast is very important from the viewpoint of economical power system operation. In general, the weekdays’ load demand pattern has the continuous time series characteristics. Therefore, the conventional methods expose stable performance for weekdays. In case of special days or weekends, the load demand pattern has the discontinuous time series characteristics, so forecasting error is relatively high. Especially, weekdays near the thanksgiving day and lunar new year"s day have the mixed load profile characteristics of both weekdays and weekends. Therefore, it is difficult to forecast these days by using the existing algorithms. In this study, a new load forecasting method is proposed in order to enhance the accuracy of the forecast result considering the characteristics of weekdays and weekends. The proposed method was tested with these days during last decades, which shows that the suggested method considerably improves the accuracy of the load forecast results.