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맹승진 ( Maeng Sung-jin ),이순혁 ( Lee Soon-hyuk ),김병준 ( Kim Byung-jun ) 한국농공학회 2002 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2002 No.-
This research seeks to derive the design rainfalls through the L-moment with the test of homogeneity, independence and outlier of data on annual maximum daily rainfall in 38 Korean rainfall stations. To select the fit appropriate distribution of annual maximum daily rainfall data according to rainfall stations, applied were Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic (GLO) and Generalized Pareto (GPA) probability distributions were applied. and their aptness was judged Dusing an L-moment ratio diagram and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test, the aptitude was judged of applied distributions such as GEV, GLO and GPA. The GEV and GLO distributions were selected as the appropriate distributions. Their parameters were estimated Targetingfrom the observed and simulated annual maximum daily rainfalls and using Monte Carlo techniques, the parameters of GEV and GLO selected as suitable distributions were estimated and. dDesign rainfallss were then derived, using the L-moment. Appropriate design rainfalls were suggested by doing a comparative analysis of design rainfall from the GEV and GLO distributions according to rainfall stations.
LH-모멘트의 적정 차수 결정에 의한 설계홍수량 추정 (I)
맹승진 ( Maeng Sung Jin ),이순혁 ( Lee Soon Hyuk ) 한국농공학회 2002 韓國農工學會誌 : 전원과 자원 Vol.44 No.6
This study was conducted to estimate the design flood by the determination of best fitting order of LH-moments of the annual maximum series at six and nine watersheds in Korea and Australia, respectively. Adequacy for flood flow data was confirmed by the tests of independence, homogeneity, and outliers. Gumbel (GUM), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Pareto (GPA), and Generalized Logistic (GLO) distributions were applied to get the best fitting frequency distribution for flood flow data. Theoretical bases of L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moments were derived to estimate the parameters of 4 distributions. L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moment ratio diagrams (LH-moments ratio diagram) were developed in this study. GEV distribution for the flood flow data of the applied watersheds was confirmed as the best one among others by the LH-moments ratio diagram and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Best fitting order of LH-moments will be derived by the confidence analysis of estimated design flood in the second report of this study.
LH-모멘트의 적정 차수 결정에 의한 설계홍수량 추정(II)
맹승진 ( Maeng Sung Jin ),이순혁 ( Lee Soon Hyuk ) 한국농공학회 2003 韓國農工學會誌 : 전원과 자원 Vol.45 No.1
This study was conducted to estimate the design flood by the determination of best fitting order for LH-moments of the annual maximum series at fifteen watersheds. Using the LH-moment ratios and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the optimal regional probability distribution was identified to be the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) in the first report of this project. Parameters of GEV distribution and flood flows of return period n years were derived by the methods of L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moments. Frequency analysis of flood flow data generated by Monte Carlo simulation was performed by the methods of L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moments using GEV distribution. Relative Root Mean Square Error. (RRMSE), Relative Bias (RBIAS) and Relative Efficiency (RE.) using methods of L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moments for GEV distribution were computed and compared with those resulting from Monte Carlo simulation. At almost all of the watersheds, the more the order of LH-moments and the return periods increased, the more RE became, while the less RRMSE and RBIAS became. The Absolute Relative Reduction (ARR) for the design flood was computed. The more the order of LH-moments increased, the less ARR of all applied watershed became It was confirmed that confidence efficiency of estimated design flood was increased as the order of LH-moments increased. Consequently, design floods for the applied watersheds were derived by the methods of L3 and L4-moments among LH-moments in view of high confidence efficiency.
LH-모멘트에 의한 극치홍수량의 빈도분석을 위한 적정분포형 유도
맹승진 ( Maeng Sung-jin ),이순혁 ( Lee Soon-hyuk ) 한국농공학회 2002 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2002 No.-
This study was conducted to estimate the design flood by the determination of best fitting order of LH-moments of the annual maximum series at six and nine watersheds in Korea and Australia, respectively. Adequacy for flood flow data was confirmed by the tests of independence, homogeneity, and outliers. Gumbel (GUM), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Pareto (GPA), and Generalized Logistic (GLO) distributions were applied to get the best fitting frequency distribution for flood flow data. Theoretical bases of L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moments were derived to estimate the parameters of 4 distributions. L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moment ratio diagrams (LH-moments ratio diagram) were developed in this study.
맹승진 ( Maeng Sung Jin ),이순혁 ( Lee Soon Hyuk ),류경식 ( Ryoo Kyong Sik ) 한국농공학회 2004 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2004 No.-
본 연구에서는 수계별 한정된 수자원의 효율적 관리를 위한 기존댐의 연계운영과 병행하여 댐 상 · 하류 유출을 고려한 종합적인 수자원관리방안 수립의 필요성이 대두됨에 따라, 저수기 댐 상 · 하류의 수계주요지점에 대한 하천유출상황을 모의할 수 있는 모형을 개발하는데 있다. 본 연구의 중심이 되는 수문모형의 기본 모형인 SSARR 모형을 검토한 결과는 다음과 같다. 적용대상 유역은 한강수계로 하였으며 소유역 분할은 총 22개로 구분하였다. 강우관측소의 선정과 Thiessen 계수의 산정은 최근에 한국수자원공사에서 새로 추가한 강우관측소를 위주로 131개 강우관측소를 대상으로 하였다. 유역의 유출특성을 파악하기 위한 분석지점은 충주댐, 여주 수위표, 화천댐, 소양댐, 청평댐, 팔당댐으로 총 6개 지점을 선정하였다. SSARR 모형의 입력자료를 물리적 매개변수, 수문기상 매개변수 및 내부처리 매개변수로 구분하여 구축하였고 1993년과 1994년의 강우자료를 이용하여 매개변수의 민감도분석과 함께 모형의 보정을 실시하고 1998년도 자료를 이용하여 모형의 검정을 실시하였다. 민감도 분석 결과, 유역유출과 관련된 매개변수에서는 고수시와 저수시의 경우 지표수와 복류수의 분리하는 매개변수에서 민감도가 크게 나타났다. 저수시의 경우 지하수 중 회귀지하수가 차지하는 비율이 크게 나타났고, 지표수, 복류수, 지하수 및 회귀지하수의 저류시간에서 비교적 큰 민감도를 나타내었다. 모형의 보정결과 고수시 오차는 1993년과 1994년에서 감소되었으나 저수시 오차에서 1994년 자료에 있어서는 다소 감소되었으나 1993년 자료에 있어서는 증가하였다. 이는 각 소유역별 매개변수의 보정을 하지 못한 것에 기인한다고 사료된다. 모형의 검정결과 고수시에는 상대오차의 평균값이 보정자료에 비해 매우 오차가 작게 나타남으로써 고수시 검증결과는 만족스럽다고 할 수 있다. 저수시 검증결과도 보정자료에 비해 절대오차가 그리 크지 않으며, 청평과 팔당지점에서의 절대오차는 보정 자료에 비해 월등히 개선되었음을 알 수 있다. 따라서 한강유역 6개 지점의 고수 및 저수시의 검정 결과는 대체적으로 만족스런 결과를 보이고 있다. In this study, following works have been carried out : A) division of Han River Basin into 22 sub basins, B) development of a technique to evaluate spatial distribution of rainfall and analysis of rainfall data of 131 stations, C) selection of control points, D) selection of a hydrologic model(SSARR), E) preparation of input data, F) parameter calibration and sensitivity analysis using hydrologic data of 1993 and 1994, and G) verification of the model using data of 1998. The sensitivity analysis showed that the surface-subsurface separation parameter is the most sensitive one to the simulation result. From the verification test, it was found that total volume of discharges at every control points have errors in a reasonable range, and the correlations between observed and calculated daily runoff discharges at every control points were well coincided.
맹승진 ( Maeng Seung-jin ),이순혁 ( Lee Soon-hyuk ),나상일 ( Na Sang-il ),이순주 ( Lee Soon-ju ) 한국농공학회 2005 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2005 No.-
In this study, following works have been carried out : division of Nakdong River Basin into 25 sub basins, development of a technique to evaluate spatial distribution of rainfall and analysis of rainfall data of 169 stations, selection of control points, and selection of a hydrologic model(SSARR). Analysis results were found that total volume of discharges at every control points have errors in a reasonable range, and the correlations between observed and calculated daily runoff discharges at every control points were well coincided.