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        레스토랑 매출 예측에 관한 연구

        나정기(Jeng ki Na) 한국외식경영학회 2001 외식경영연구 Vol.4 No.1

        In setting the objective of restaurant sales, this study used the value obtained by sung the simple moving average method of predict the short-term amount of sales. And it attempted to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction method by comparing the predicted value and the actual amount of sales through the irregular and cyclic indexes. To add to further accuracy, an attempt was made to conduct seasonal adjustment excluding the seasonal factor from the original series(actual amount of sales). Seasonal fluctuations are the one that are annually periodically repeated according to climate, economy and social norms, monthly time-series data were used. It is easy to evaluate the data of comparison at the same point in time identical with the ratio of the same month previous year. For this purpose, an attempt was made to adjust for seasonal fluctuations using the 12-period moving average method. Data obtained through this showed that the actual amount of sales in Jan 2001 accounted for 1,914,362,131won, whereas the predicted amount of sales accounted for 1,938,296,346won, which indicates that the gap between the actual and predicted amount of sales accounted for 23,934,215won(standard deviation:l.3%). That is, the results of comparison between the actual and predicted amount of sales over the 5-month period between January and May, 2001 showed that the standard deviation averaged 3.3%. The accuracy of the short-term prediction of the amount of restaurant sales was generally low(55% for more than ±3%), which was lower than 43% for rooms and 45% for catering. On the other hand, in predicting the short-term amount of restaurant sales the accuracy of the prediction method using the irregular or cyclic indexes obtained by eliminating the predicted value and the seasonal index could be said to be high. It is thought that this study laid the foundation for estimating and setting the target amount though the quantitative method by getting away form the past qualitative method in predicting the short-term amount of restaurant sales, but the absence of the original and pragmatic previous studies led to the evaluation of the accuracy of only one model of demand prediction. And there are several models in relation to the method of prediction by time series, but the optimal model could not be found in the results of prediction using only the moving average method. It is expected that with this point in mind, future research will be conducted based on the findings of this study in the following direction: First, the tourism industry sector is using time series, but used largely for industrial analysis and demand for tourists. With this point in mind, work schedule, and purchase and production(preparation) management should be preferentially conducted through more rational and effective demand prediction in the foodservice sector where great capital investment is made. Second, sustained research should be conducted to find out the optimal model for demand prediction in the foodservice sector.

      • 식당인증에 대한 소비자 인식도와 만족도에 관한 연구

        정지만(Jeong, Ji Man),나정기(Na, Jeng Ki) 한국식공간학회 2010 식공간연구 Vol.5 No.2

        This study aims at investigating to what extent consumers recognize the restaurant certification currently in force and if they do at all, what elements exist. It also aims to determine whether they associate restaurant certification with an image suitable for the intended purposes of certification. The scope of the study concerns classification run and approved by different authorities of the national or local government levels for restaurants. A questionnaire survey was conducted on consumers living in Seoul and Gyeonggi-do and the results of analysis are as follows: If awareness of certified restaurants is low, satisfaction appears to be low even though the need of the restaurant certification is agreed. More efforts should be made to improve both publicity of the certification system and customer satisfaction by certification authorities and restaurants. It is deemed necessary to study the development of 'restaurant certification evaluation measures' compatible with the purpose of certification system in the near future. Through these efforts, tangible or intangible qualities of goods should be enhanced for consumers who go to restaurants that operate restaurant certification. It will contribute to the increase of the reliability of restaurant certification and also suggest guidelines and a direction for the study of the government-led 'overseas Korean restaurant certification system' which can bring excellent Korean food culture to all over the world.

      • KCI등재
      • 메뉴 販賣價 決定에 관한 硏究

        나정기 경기대학교 호텔경영연구소 1992 호텔경영연구논총 Vol.- No.1

        Dramatic changes have taken place in the hotel industry's attitude toward food and beverage operations in the last ten years. The most significant change in attitude has been that food and beverage has become important as a potential source of new profits. The purpose of this study is to explain theories and methods for menu-pricing. In the foodservice area, success is based on developing the right menu-pricing system. Each operator has the option of developing a system. First requisite in menu pricing is to know for whom the menu is being planned and what they like to take. Pricing must fit the needs and desires of your makets. Before looking at specific cost approaches to pricing, we need to set the stage. When pricing is based on a cost approach, four modifying factors to consider are historical prices, perceived price/value relationship, competition, and price rounding. These price modifiers relate to the pricing of nearly all products and services. A major method of pricing food and beverages is making up the cost of the goods sold. The making-up is designed to cover all non-product costs, such as labor, utilities, supplies, interest expense, taxes, and also to provide the desired profit. Another basic concept used in menu pricing is the margin, or gross profit. A third basic requirement of any menu-pricing system is a standardized recipe most operators are very concerned with cost percentages because they are easier to understand than absolute numbers. However, the cost percentage is a function of prices charged; Therefore the food cost percentage will be low if the prices charged are high. There are also several informal approaches to setting prices for selling food and beverages.

      • 관광인력 양성체계에 관한 개념적인 모델전개에 관한 연구

        나정기 한국관광정책학회 1998 觀光政策學硏究 Vol.4 No.2

        This study was intended to present the conceptual model for improving the structural problem of the manpower training system for tourism industry in Korea. To attain this goal, this study first attempted to investigate the present situation and problem of the educational institution for training manpower for tourism industry. Next, it inquired into the structure of vocational education in France and then presented the scheme for ameliorating the problem of training manpower for tourism industry by dividing it into three steps. The first step is training manpower centering around secondary educational institutions. The second step is the construction of the linkage system between educational institutions, and between the licence system related to tourism and educational institutions. The third step is the reinforcement of industry-school cooperation.

      • 식음료 원가관리

        나정기 대신대학 1990 논문집 Vol.10 No.-

        Food dservice operations come in great varieties. They differ in size, location, clientele, food offered, reasons for existing, types, and so on. Despite all differences, do we need to have a unified cost control procedures. The success or failure of a restaurant operations is often dependent on management's ability to effectively control food and beverage costs, considering that food and beverage costs in the majority of restaurant operations represent the largest single expenditure. The purpose of this study is explain procedures for controlling food and beverage costs. This study begins with a discussion of the purpose of controls and various functions that make up this process. This study will also discuss the activities of food purchasing, receiving, storing, and issuing aling with examples of practical forms and documents. The second chapter concerns planning food production and using standardized recipes. Finally. the calculation and establishment of standard costs are explored along with the methodology used to compute actual costs.

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