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도기석,정봉남,좌재호 한국식물병리학회 2016 식물병연구 Vol.22 No.3
A forecast model for estimating the infection risk of bacterial canker caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae on kiwifruit leaves in Korea was developed using the generic infection model of Magarey et al. (2005). Two-way contingency table analysis was carried out to evaluate accuracy of forecast models including the model developed in this study for estimating the infection of bacterial canker on kiwifruit using the weather and disease data collected from three kiwifruit orchards at Seogwipo in 2015. All the tested models had more than 80% of probability of detection indicating that all the tested models could be eḀective to manage the disease. The model developed in this study showed the highest values in proportion of correct (51.1%), probability of detection (90.9%), and critical success index (47.6%). It indicated that the model developed in this study would be the best model for estimating the infection of bacterial wilt on kiwifruit leaves in Korea. The model developed in this study could be used for a part of decision support system for managing bacterial wilt on kiwifruit leaves and help growers to reduce the loss caused by the disease in Korea.
A Forecast Model for the First Occurrence of Phytophthora Blight on Chili Pepper after Overwintering
도기석,박은우,강위수 한국식물병리학회 2012 Plant Pathology Journal Vol.28 No.2
An infection risk model for Phytophthora blight on chili pepper was developed to estimate the first date of disease occurrence in the field. The model consisted of three parts including estimation of zoosporangium formation, soil water content, and amount of active inoculum in soil. Daily weather data on air temperature,relative humidity and rainfall, and the soil texture data of local areas were used to estimate infection risk level that was quantified as the accumulated amount of active inoculum during the prior three days. Based on the analysis on 190 sets of weather and disease data, it was found that the threshold infection risk of 224 could be an appropriate criterion for determining the primary infection date. The 95% confidence interval for the difference between the estimated date of primary infection and the observed date of first disease occurrence was 8 ± 3 days. In the model validation tests, the observed dates of first disease occurrence were within the 95%confidence intervals of the estimated dates in the five out of six cases. The sensitivity analyses suggested that the model was more responsive to temperature and soil texture than relative humidity, rainfall, and transplanting date. The infection risk model could be implemented in practice to control Phytophthora blight in chili pepper fields.
도기석,정봉남,Jae Ho Joa 한국식물병리학회 2016 Plant Pathology Journal Vol.32 No.6
We developed a model, termed D-PSA-K, to estimatethe accumulated potential damage on kiwifruit canescaused by bacterial canker during the growing andoverwintering seasons. The model consisted of threeparts including estimation of the amount of necroticlesion in a non-frozen environment, the rate of necrosisincrease in a freezing environment during the overwinteringseason, and the amount of necrotic lesion onkiwifruit canes caused by bacterial canker during theoverwintering and growing seasons. We evaluated themodel’s accuracy by comparing the observed maximumdisease incidence on kiwifruit canes against thedamage estimated using weather and disease data collectedat Wando during 1994–1997 and at Seogwipoduring 2014–2015. For the Hayward cultivar, D-PSAKestimated the accumulated damage as approximatelynine times the observed maximum diseaseincidence. For the Hort16A cultivar, the accumulateddamage estimated by D-PSA-K was high when theobserved disease incidence was high. D-PSA-K couldassist kiwifruit growers in selecting optimal sites forkiwifruit cultivation and establishing improved productionplans by predicting the loss in kiwifruit productiondue to bacterial canker, using past weather orfuture climate change data.
스트림 데이터의 다차원 분석에서 평균응답시간을 줄이는 스트림 큐브
도기석(Kiseok Do),박석(Seog Park) 한국정보과학회 2005 한국정보과학회 학술발표논문집 Vol.32 No.1
유비쿼터스 환경이 도래함에 따라 데이터 흐름이 신속하고 연속적으로 변화하고 있다. 이러한 스트림 형태의 데이터는 데이터의 치명적 변화, 자주 발생하지 않는 패턴 등의 관점에서 데이터 분석을 필요로하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 다단계의 추상화 데이터 분석이 용이한 다차원 분석에 기반하여 고정적인 공간 활용만이 가능했던 기존 방식을 살펴본 후 이를 유동적으로 보완하여 공간 비용을 최소화 하면서 평균응답시간을 줄여주는 방법에 대해 논의한다. 또한 제안 방법의 시공간 비용을 수식으로 증명하고 기존 방법과의 비교 실험을 통하여 성능을 평가해 본다.
기후변화 시나리오에 따른 미래 참다래 궤양병 피해 예측
도기석 ( Ki Seok Do ),정봉남 ( Bong Nam Chung ),최경산 ( Kyung San Choi ),안정준 ( Jeong Joon Ahn ),좌재호 ( Jae Ho Joa ) 한국농림기상학회 2016 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.18 No.2
RCP4.5와 RCP8.5 미래 기후 변화 시나리오자료와 참다래 궤양병 피해 예측 모형인 D-PSA-K, 미래 참다래 재배적지 지도를 활용하여 궤양병의 미래 피해를 예측하고 참다래 궤양병의 발생 변화의 경향성을 찾아 보았다. 병원 세균에 의한 감염이 충분히 있다는 가정 아래에서 RCP4.5와 RCP8.5 시나리오의 2020년대와 2050년대에서 궤양병의 최대이병주율은 제주도와 남해안 일부 지역을 제외한 대부분의 지역에서 75% 이상으로 나타날 것으로 예측되었다. 두 시나리오들 모두에서 월동기 저온환경이 없다는 가정 아래에서의 참다래 궤양병에 의한 가지 피해량은 거의 모든 재배가능지에서 증가될 것으로 예측된 반면에 월동기 저온에 의한 가지 피해량 증가율은 거의 모든 재배가능지에서 감소할 것으로 예측되었다. 지역 및 시나리오별로 궤양병 피해의 증가 및 감소의 경향은 다르게 나타날 것으로 예측되었다. RCP4.5 시나리오에서 2050년대에 2020년대에 비하여 10% 이상 최대 이병주율의 증가가 일어날 것으로 예측된 참다래 재배 가능지는 전체 재배 가능지의 3.14%, RCP8.5 시나리오에서는 25.41%였다. We estimated the averaged maximum incidences of bacterial canker at suitable sites for kiwifruit cultivation in 2020s and 2050s using D-PSA-K model with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. Though there was a little difference between the estimation using RCP4.5 and that using RCP8.5, the estimated maximum disease incidences were more than 75% at all the suitable sites in Korea except for some southern coastal areas and Jeju island under the assumption that there are a plenty of infections to cause the symptoms. We also analyzed the intermediate and final outputs of D-PSA-K model to find out the trends on the change in disease incidence affected by climate change. Whereas increase of damage to kiwifruit canes in a non-frozen environment caused by bacterial canker was estimated at almost all the suitable sites in both the climate change scenarios, rate of necrosis increase caused by the bacterial canker pathogen in a frozen environment during the last overwintering season was predicted to be reduced at almost all the suitable sites in both the climate change scenarios. Directions of change in estimated maximum incidence varied with sites and scenarios. Whereas the maximum disease incidence at 3.14% of suitable sites for kiwifruit cultivation in 2020s under RCP4.5 scenario was estimated to increase by 10% or more in 2050s, the maximum disease incidence at 25.41% of the suitable sites under RCP8.5 scenario was estimated so.