Heat-related mortality risk model for climate change impact projection.

Honda, Yasushi,Kondo, Masahide,McGregor, Glenn,Kim, Ho,Guo, Yue-Leon,Hijioka, Yasuaki,Yoshikawa, Minoru,Oka, Kazutaka,Takano, Saneyuki,Hales, Simon,Kovats, R Sari Japanese Society for Hygiene 2014 Environmental health and preventive medicine.['97. Vol.19 No.1

<P>We previously developed a model for projection of heat-related mortality attributable to climate change. The objective of this paper is to improve the fit and precision of and examine the robustness of the model.</P>

Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

박재원,정해관,Yasushi Honda,하미나,김호,Joel Kolam,Kasis Inape,Ivo Mueller 환경독성보건학회 2016 환경독성보건학회지 Vol.31 No.-

Objectives: This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in rela¬tion to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using na¬tional health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rain¬fall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pat¬tern of malaria was analyzed. Results: Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreas¬ing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase be¬ing steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions: Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rain¬fall in coastal regions.

Association between diurnal temperature range and mortality modified by temperature in Japan, 1972–2015: Investigation of spatial and temporal patterns for 12 cause-specific deaths

Lee, Whanhee,Kim, Yoonhee,Honda, Yasushi,Kim, Ho Elsevier 2018 Environment international Vol.119 No.-

<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>Many previous literatures suggested that high temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR) are prominent risk factors to increase risk of mortality. However, the role of effect modification of temperature on the DTR-related mortality is unclear. We examined whether temperature was an effect modifier on the DTR-mortality association and how the modification patterns differed by cause of deaths and different regional climates using a nationwide 47 prefecture data in Japan (1972–2015). We used a two-stage analysis. For the first stage, we used a time-series regression with a distributed lag model to estimate the DTR-mortality association according to five levels of temperature (extreme cold, cold, moderate, hot, and extreme hot days) for each prefecture stratified by twelve cause-specific deaths. Then, we applied a meta-analysis to pool the estimates across the 47 prefectures in Japan and separately by cooler vs. warmer regions. Our findings showed that the risk of mortality associated with DTR was strongly modified by temperature for all causes and cardiovascular deaths (<I>p</I> < 0.001) in the total population, suggesting that the influence of DTR on mortality increases at higher levels of temperature. These findings were consistent across warmer and cooler regions. Similar patterns were observed for respiratory and renal disease deaths which demonstrated the associations with DTR were the highest during extreme hot days, although it was statistically not significant and varied depending on the climate regions. Our findings suggest that the DTR-related mortality may be modified by daily mean temperature and the most elevated during extremely hot temperatures.</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> We aimed to identify the DTR-related mortality with cause-specific deaths. </LI> <LI> Weather and 12-specific deaths data of Japan (47 prefectures; 1972–2015) were used. </LI> <LI> We found the DTR-related risks were highest in respiratory and renal deaths. </LI> <LI> The modification of temperature was significant in total and cardiovascular deaths. </LI> <LI> The DTR-related mortality changed during the study period. </LI> </UL> </P>

동북아시아 지역의 대기오염과 자살

김나경,임연희,김윤희,김호,Yeu Liang Guo,Yasushi Honda 한국대기환경학회 2013 한국대기환경학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.2013 No.8

Mortality Related to Extreme Temperature for 15 Cities in Northeast Asia

Chung, Yeonseung,Lim, Youn-Hee,Honda, Yasushi,Guo, Yue-Liang Leon,Hashizume, Masahiro,Bell, Michelle L.,Chen, Bing-Yu,Kim, Ho Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved. 2015 Epidemiology Vol.26 No.2

BACKGROUND:: Multisite time-series studies for temperature-related mortality have been conducted mainly in the United States and Europe, but are lacking in Asia. This multisite time-series study examined mortality related to extreme temperatures (both cold and hot) in Northeast Asia, focusing on 15 cities of 3 high-income countries. METHODS:: This study includes 3 cities in Taiwan for 1994–2007, 6 cities in Korea for 1992–2010, and 6 cities in Japan for 1972–2009. We used 2-stage Bayesian hierarchical Poisson semiparametric regression to model the nonlinear relationship between temperature and mortality, providing city-specific and country-wide estimates for cold and heat effects. Various exposure time frames, age groups, and causes of death were considered. RESULTS:: Cold effects had longer time lags (5–11 days) than heat effects, which were immediate (1–3 days). Cold effects were larger for cities in Taiwan, whereas heat effects were larger for cities in Korea and Japan. Patterns of increasing effects with age were observed in both cold and heat effects. Both cold and heat effects were larger for cardiorespiratory mortality than for other causes of death. Several city characteristics related to weather or air pollution were associated with both cold and heat effects. CONCLUSIONS:: Mortality increased with either cold or hot temperature in urban populations of high-income countries in Northeast Asia, with spatial variations of effects among cities and countries. Findings suggest that climate factors are major contributors to the spatial heterogeneity of effects in this region, although further research is merited to identify other factors as determinants of variability.

Effect of Climate Change on Malaria in Papua New Guinea

Jae-Won Park,Hae-Kwan Cheong,Yasushi Honda,Mina Ha,Ho Kim,Joel Kolam,Kasis Inape,Ivo Mueller 한국환경독성학회 2011 한국독성학회 심포지움 및 학술발표회 Vol.2011 No.10

Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

Jae-Won Park,Hae-Kwan Cheong,Yasushi Honda,Mina Ha,Ho Kim,Joel Kolam,Kasis Inape,Ivo Mueller 환경독성보건학회 2016 환경독성보건학회지 Vol.31 No.-

Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

Park, Jae-Won,Cheong, Hae-Kwan,Honda, Yasushi,Ha, Mina,Kim, Ho,Kolam, Joel,Inape, Kasis,Mueller, Ivo The Korean Society of Environmental Toxicology 2016 환경독성보건학회지 Vol.31 No.-

Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

Temporal changes in mortality attributed to heat extremes for 57 cities in Northeast Asia

Lee, Whanhee,Choi, Hayon Michelle,Kim, Dahye,Honda, Yasushi,Guo, Yue-Liang Leon,Kim, Ho Elsevier 2018 Science of the Total Environment Vol.616 No.-

<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>Recent studies have reported that heat-related mortality decreased by adaptation during decades. However, since the frequency of extreme heat events is increasing, it is difficult to conclude with certainty that the heat mortality burden is decreasing. To examine temporal changes in mortality attributed to heat extremes in Northeast Asia, we collected temperature and mortality data covering the years 1972–2012 from 57 cities of 3 countries (Taiwan, Korea, and Japan) in Northeast Asia. Poisson regression curves were fitted to the data from each city. The temporal changes in heat-mortality association were estimated with a time-varying distributed lag non-linear model. Heat extremes were defined as temperatures greater than the 97.5th percentiles of city-specific average temperatures. Attributable deaths were calculated considering temporal variations in exposure and relative risk. The estimates were then pooled through meta-analysis. The results show that the mortality risk on extreme heat days declined during the study period in all countries. However, as summer temperatures in Japan have shown more heat extremes over time, the mortality risk attributed to heat increased during 2003–2012 (0.32%) compared with 1972–1981 (0.19%). Thus, to assess the total health burden due to heat extremes related to climate change, public health strategies should focus on the temporal variation in heat-mortality association as well as changes in the distribution of heat extremes overtime.</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> Heat-related mortality has declined for all three countries. </LI> <LI> In Japan, a positive shift of heat extremes was observed during study period. </LI> <LI> The attributable risk fraction (ARF) of heat extremes increased overtime in Japan. </LI> <LI> The ARF heat extremes temporally declined in Korea and Taiwan. </LI> <LI> We suggest that the ARF of heat extremes will not reduce in climate change. </LI> </UL> </P> <P><B>Graphical abstract</B></P> <P>[DISPLAY OMISSION]</P>

Non-invasive imaging biomarkers for liver steatosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: present and future

Asako Nogami,Masato Yoneda,Michihiro Iwaki,Takashi Kobayashi,Yasushi Honda,Yuji Ogawa,Kento Imajo,Satoru Saito,Atsushi Nakajima 대한간학회 2023 Clinical and Molecular Hepatology(대한간학회지) Vol.29 No.-

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is currently the most common chronic liver disease, affecting up to 25% of the global population. Simple fatty liver, in which fat is deposited in the liver without fibrosis, has been regarded as a benign disease in the past, but it is now known to be prognostic. In the future, more emphasis should be placed on the quantification of liver fat. Traditionally, fatty liver has been assessed by histological evaluation, which requires an invasive examination; however, technological innovations have made it possible to evaluate fatty liver by non-invasive imaging methods, such as ultrasonography, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging. In addition, quantitative as well as qualitative measurements for the detection of fatty liver have become available. In this review, we summarize the currently used qualitative evaluations of fatty liver and discuss quantitative evaluations that are expected to further develop in the future.