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Yeh, Sang-Wook,Kug, Jong-Seong,Dewitte, Boris,Kwon, Min-Ho,Kirtman, Ben P.,Jin, Fei-Fei Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved 2009 Nature Vol.461 No.7263
<P>El Nino events, characterized by anomalous warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, have global climatic teleconnections and are the most dominant feature of cyclic climate variability on subdecadal timescales. Understanding changes in the frequency or characteristics of El Nino events in a changing climate is therefore of broad scientific and socioeconomic interest. Recent studies(1-5) show that the canonical El Nino has become less frequent and that a different kind of El Nino has become more common during the late twentieth century, in which warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific are flanked on the east and west by cooler SSTs. This type of El Nino, termed the central Pacific El Nino (CP-El Nino; also termed the dateline El Nino(2), El Nino Modoki(3) or warm pool El Nino(5)), differs from the canonical eastern Pacific El Nino (EP-El Nino) in both the location of maximum SST anomalies and tropical-midlatitude teleconnections. Here we show changes in the ratio of CP-El Nino to EP-El Nino under projected global warming scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 multi-model data set(6). Using calculations based on historical El Nino indices, we find that projections of anthropogenic climate change are associated with an increased frequency of the CP-El Nino compared to the EP-El Nino. When restricted to the six climate models with the best representation of the twentieth-century ratio of CP-El Nino to EP-El Nino, the occurrence ratio of CP-El Nino/EP-El Nino is projected to increase as much as five times under global warming. The change is related to a flattening of the thermocline in the equatorial Pacific.</P>
Changes in the spatial structure of strong and moderate El Niño events under global warming
Yeh, Sang‐,Wook,Kim, Hera,Kwon, MinHo,Dewitte, Boris John Wiley Sons, Ltd 2014 International journal of climatology Vol.34 No.8
<P><B>Abstract</B></P><P>In this study, we examine how the spatial structures of strong and moderate El Niño events have changed due to global warming using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) based on a historical run and a Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 run. The centre of the maximum anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) in the moderate El Niño has shifted significantly westward from the historical run to the RCP4.5 run; however, this is not seen with the strong El Niño events. Further analysis indicates that the centre of the maximum anomalous SST in the moderate El Niño with a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase shifted westward around the international dateline from the historical run to the RCP4.5 run. This is in contrast to the moderate El Niño, which shows a positive PDO phase. We also briefly discuss a possible mechanism on the change in the spatial structure of moderate El Niño with a negative phase of PDO from the historical run to the RCP4.5 run.</P>