비관세조치의 국내 고용효과

황운중 한국산업경제학회 2020 산업경제연구 Vol.33 No.3

The purpose of this study is to quantify the effect of changes in the global trade environment due to the strengthening of protectionism on the employment of South Korea as a NTM-affected country. For this purpose, the HS 6-digit level of product code information linked to individual non-tariff measures (NTMs) is used to estimate the effects of non-tariff measures imposing against Korea on the domestic employment via exports channel. The two‐stage least squares (2SLS) instrumental variables (IV) estimator, where NTM is used as an instrument for exports, was employed in order for improving the reliability of an estimation. The main result shows that NTMs imposed by foreign countries generally tend to decrease Korea's exports, which leads to a negative impact on domestic employment in the short run. These estimates were statistically significant regardless of the type of NTM exposure indices derived at the industry level. Given that the impact of NTMs on employment can be heterogeneous depending on the capital intensity of the industry, the analysis was conducted by additionally including the interaction term between exports and capital intensity variables. The result shows that the negative effects of non-tariff measures on employment tend to be reduced in industries with higher capital intensity. The estimation result with the interaction term indicates that there is little negative impact of non-tariff measures on employment in some manufacturing industries such as crude oil refining, chemicals, and primary steel, which have relatively high capital intensity. 본 연구를 통해 보호무역주의 강화에 따른 무역환경의 변화가 한국의 고용에 미친 영향을 실증적으로 분석하였다. 이를 위해 對한국 비관세조치에 연계된 HS 6단위 품목정보를 이용하여 외국의 비관세조치가 수출 경로를 통해 국내 고용에 간접적 으로 미친 영향을 산업 수준에서 추정하였다. 추정의 신뢰성을 제고하기 위해 비 관세조치를 수출의 도구변수로 하는 2단계 IV(2SLS) 추정방법론을 준용하였다. 추 정결과, 외국의 비관세조치는 수출을 저해하는 요인으로 작용하였으며 국내 고용 에 부정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 추정 결과는 산업 수준에서 도출된 비관세조치 노출지수의 형태에 관계없이 통계적으로 유의하였다. 비관세조 치가 고용에 미치는 영향이 산업의 자본집약도에 따라 이질적일 수 있다는 전제하 에 수출과 자본집약도 변수의 교차항을 추가적으로 구성하여 분석을 실시한 결과, 비관세조치가 고용에 미치는 부정적인 효과는 자본집약도가 높은 산업일수록 축소 되는 것으로 나타났다.

Comparative advantage, product quality, and the competitiveness of firms

황운중 한국무역학회 2017 Journal of Korea trade Vol.21 No.3

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to emphasize the importance of product quality in differentiatedproducts markets in determining the structure of competition among firms. Design/methodology/approach – First, two distinct models of firm heterogeneity are considered as two possible structures for firms’ competition: “price competition” and “quality competition.” Then, the author exploits the bilateral trade data of the world’s 83 largest countries in order to examine a link between the empirical findings and the theoretical models. Findings – The empirical findings support a model of “quality competition” rather than “price competition,” in which firms in a country with a comparative advantage in a given product tend to improve their product quality as opposed to lowering production costs, so they compete on the quality-adjusted price. Research limitations/implications – This paper used product-level data to examine the spatial pattern of the average export unit value of a product, which is able to answer the question of whether an industry is involved with quality competition. The product-level data used in this study, however, are not ideally suitable for exploring the predictions of a heterogeneous firms’ trade model. Originality/value – To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first paper that investigates a relationship between the country-product pair of comparative advantages and firms’ self-selection behavior in the product-level data to shed light on the role of product quality in determining the structure of firms’ competition.

Policy-based Loans to Korean SME Exporters and the Intensive Margin of Exports

황운중,구경현 대외경제정책연구원 2022 East Asian Economic Review Vol.26 No.3

This study examines the extent to which policy-based loans to SME exporters affect their export performance (the intensive margin of exports). We also investigate the heterogeneous export effects of policy-based loans that may depend on firm- and industry-specific characteristics, such as credit ratings, debt-to-assets ratios, firm size and age. To do so, we conduct a survey, of 1,000 Korean SMEs, that collect information on firm-level exports and policy-based loans. The main empirical findings strongly support that SMEs that receive policy-based loans tend to increase their export volumes. However, these loans’ positive impact on exports are only valid for SME exporters with credit scores of 12 or greater (that is, SMEs that have difficulty accessing the external financial market). The estimation results with respect to SMEs’ dependence on external financing imply that policy-based loans for SMEs in sectors that are heavily dependent on external finance are effective in that they are instrumental in increasing these firms’ exports. These empirical findings emphasize the importance of the external financial market to SME exporters who face various up-front investments that are related to their exporting activities.

비관세장벽의 수출효과 - 한국을 중심으로

황운중(Unjung Whang) 한국무역학회 2020 貿易學會誌 Vol.45 No.1

디지털 전환이 고용에 미치는 영향 - 중국 상장기업을 중심으로

왕우선,황운중,양범 한국산업경제학회 2022 한국산업경제학회 정기학술발표대회 논문집 Vol.2022 No.6

디지털 무역장벽의 실태와 시사점: 설문조사 결과를 중심으로

이규엽,황운중 대외경제정책연구원 2021 오늘의 세계경제 Vol.21 No.11

디지털 전환 기술 도입 및 활용이 기업의 성과에 미친 영향

정호진,황운중 조선대학교 지식경영연구원 2024 기업과 혁신연구 Vol.47 No.1

본 연구는 기업이 디지털 전환 기술의 도입 및 활용을 결정하는 요인들을 분석하고, 신기술 도입이 기업 성과에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 이를 위해 기업의 4차 산업혁명 관련 기술의 개발 및 활용 정보를 포함하는 통계청 기업활동조사 자료를 이용하여 패널회귀분석을 시행하였다. 실증분석결과, 큰 규모의 기업들이 상대적으로 디지털 기술을 도입하고 활용하는 경향이 높게 나타났으며, 오래된 기업일수록 새로운 기술 도입 확률은 낮아지는 것으로 추정되었다. 디지털 기술 도입은 기업의 고용, 매출, 혁신성과에 긍정적 영향을 미치는 것으로 추정되었으나, 산업별로 효과의 이질성이 강하게 나타났다. 특히, 디지털 전환 기술은 서비스업에서 매출 증가에 더 큰 영향을 미쳤으나 제조업에서는 통계적으로 유의한 영향이 없었다. 본 연구의 실증분석 결과는 기업들의 디지털 전환 기술 도입을 장려하기 위해 정부가 다양한 지원방안을 마련할 필요가 있다는 정책적 시사점을 제공한다. This study analyzed factors influencing a firm’s decision to adopt and utilize digital transformation technologies, as well as the impact of these technologies on firm performance. Panel regression analysis was conducted using data from the Korean Statistical Office’s Survey of Business Activities, which includes information on the development and use of Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies by firms. The empirical analysis revealed that larger firms are more inclined to adopt and utilize digital technologies compared to smaller ones. Moreover, older firms were found to have a lower likelihood of embracing new technologies. The use of digital technologies positively impacted firm’s employment, revenue, and innovation performance, although the extent of these effects varied significantly across industries. Notably, digital transformation technologies had a more significant influence on revenue within the service sector, while their effect in the manufacturing sector was not statistically significant. The findings of this study suggest policy implications, recommending that the government implement various support measures to encourage the adoption of digital transformation technologies by firms.

Contractors’ Asymmetric Bargaining Power and the Impact on Subcontractors’ Wages

구경현,황운중 서강대학교 지암남덕우경제연구원 2022 시장경제연구 Vol.51 No.2

This study investigates the wage differentials caused by the differences in bargaining power that reflect the hierarchical structure between buyers and suppliers of intermediate goods. It uses novel data that includes firm-level information on whether or not a firm is a subcontractor and whether prime contractors have requested unit-price reductions from subcontractors, and, if so, how these subcontractors respond to these contractors’ unfair requests. The main findings are that subcontractors’ wages are much lower than those of prime contractors, even when controlling for firm size and other characteristics. This is closely related to contractors with asymmetric bargaining power unfairly transferring costs to subcontractors. We also find that the negative impact of unfair unit-price reductions on subcontractors’ wages tends to be more pronounced when their sales in proportion to those of top-tier contractors are relatively large.

문재인-트럼프 시대 한미 FTA: 과제와 전망

김영귀,황운중 경남대학교 극동문제연구소 2017 한반도 포커스 Vol.40 No.0

The Impact of Digital Transformation on Employment, Evidence from Chinese Enterprises

왕우선,양범,황운중 한국무역학회 2023 한국무역학회 세미나 및 토론회 Vol.2023 No.2