글로벌 금융위기 이후 환률변동과 수출가격

최창열,함형범,Choi, Chang-Yeoul,Ham, Hyung-Bum 한국통상정보학회 2011 통상정보연구 Vol.13 No.4

본 연구는 글로벌금융위기 이후에 환율변동과 수출가격과의 관련성을 살펴보았다. 이를 위하여 우리나라 수출기업의 가격차별화 가격결정 행태뿐만 아니라 우리나라 수출산업의 특성상 가공무역구조로 인식하고 수출가격 결정모형을 설정하였다. 이러한 수출가격 결정모형에 근거하여 된 2008년 1월 이후 2011년 10월까지의 기간을 대상으로 음식료품, 목재나무제품, 펄프종이제품, 화학제품을 제외한 제조업을 대상으로 환율변동의 수출가격에의 전가율을 추정하였다. 연구결과 원화환율은 수출가격에 불완전 하게 전가되는 것으로 추정됨을 확인하였다. 원화환율의 1% 상승(하락)은 우리나라 제조업 수출가격을 장단기적으로 0.44 %와 0.33%상승(하락)시키는 것으로 추정되었다. 또한 우리나라 수출가격은 원화환율 뿐만 아니라 경쟁국의 수출가격, 미국경기통행지수, 단위노동비용 및 원자재 수입가격을 대변하는 생산자물가지수, 경쟁국의 환율에 크게 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 산업별 환율전가의 차이는 시장 점유율, 제품차별화, 자본집약도 등과 밀접한 관련이 있는 것으로 분석되었는데 대체로 해외시장 점유율이 높거나 혹은 제품차별화 정도가 크거나 혹은 노동비율이 높은 자본집약산업에서 환율전가도가 높게 나타났다. The exchange rate change has been increased since the time when the floating exchange rate system was introduced in Korea. As a result, the increase of the exchange rate changes raised the risk in international trades in Korea. Also after Bretton Woods System broke down, the increasing exchange rate fluctuation raised the risk in international trade. The purpose of this dissertation is to study whether this incomplete pass-through exists in Korean export industry and furthermore to measure the markup rate of the export price using real data since Global Financial Crisis. The estimation results of the export price determination model by Error Correction Model shows that the export price of Korea has been greatly influenced by the export prices and exchange rates against U.S. Dollar of rival countries, domestic producer price as well as the Korean Won-U.S. Dollar exchange rate and also business coincidence index of U.S. in demand. Particularly, the pass-through rate of Korean Won-U.S. Dollar exchange rate to export price is estimated to be incomplete, which contrasts with the propositions of traditional exchange rate determination approach, e. g. elasticity approach, monetary approach, etc.

지역통상정보 : 금융통상환경 변화와 한중일 환율 동조화 분석

최창열 ( Chang Yeoul Choi ),함형범 ( Hyung Bum Ham ) 한국통상정보학회 2010 통상정보연구 Vol.12 No.1

TV 홈쇼핑 이용자의 구매특성에 대한 실증분석

최창열 ( Chang Yeoul Choi ) 한국유통정보학회 2004 유통정보학회지 Vol.7 No.2

한국 물류기업의 북아프리카 진출 전략에 대한 연구

최창열(Chang-Yeoul Choi),최혁준(Hyuk-Jun, Choi) 한국통상정보학회 2012 통상정보연구 Vol.14 No.1

아프리카에 대한 관심이 높아지고 있다. 선진국을 중심으로 자원개발, 경제협력 등의 다양한 목적으로 아프리카에 진출하고 있다. 자원을 향한 선진국의 움직임은 새로운 물류시장을 형성하고 있다. 현재 중남미·대양주·아프리카 지역은 자원개발과 국제물류의 새로운 메카로 떠오르고 있다. 막대한 사회간접 시설에 대한 투자, 물류SOC에 대한 투자를 통해 아프리카를 선점하고 있는 선진국의 움직임은 우리나라 물류기업에게 새로운 기회를 제공할 것으로 기대된다. 본 연구는 아프리카, 특히 북아프리카지역에 진출하기 위한 물류기업의 진출전략을 제시하고자 한다. 연구의 방법은 관련기업을 대상으로 설문연구를 진행하였다. 연구결과 진입시기, 진입방법, 지리적 시장범위, 정부관계 측면에서 물류기업의 진출전략을 제시할 수 있다. 진입시기에 있어서는 진입시기의 결정이 중요하다. 진입시기가 빠를수록 경쟁력은 높아진다. 진입방법에 있어서 전략적 제휴방식이 효과적이다. 지리적 시장범위는 아프리카지역의 물류인프라가 발달하지 못한 상황에서 중요성이 높은 요인으로 분석되었다. 정부간 관계는 기업활동에 직접적으로 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 아프리카 지역은 정부의 시장개입이 크다는 것을 인식해야 한다. Africa has got largely attention from around the world and industrial advanced countries mainly have focused their interest on the continent for the purposes of natural resources development or economic cooperation. Such is in part for their exploiting new logistics. Central America, Oceania and Africa are together now emerging as a new mecca for resources development and global logistics. Considering that Western countries are heavily investing in and preoccupying both social overhead infrastructure and logistics in Africa, it is expected that it will be new opportunities for domestic logistics companies. This research is focused on studying strategies for logistics companies to open Africa, especially Northern African market. For this, the method of questionnaire is applied for related companies. And it also considers proper time for the opening the market, how to enter, geographical market range and interests of countries there. From the result, it is important the timing for entering the market, which means competitive edge gets better with fast making inroads into the market. And strategic alliance is revealed more effective. In addition, geographical market range is another important factor in low infrastructure of logistics in Africa. It is shown that relations between governments have directly effect on business activities. It should be kept in mind that African countries have their big influences on the market.

중국 물류거점도시의 비즈니스 환경 연구

최창열(Chang-Yeoul Choi),김형기(Hyoung-Gi Kim),이장원(Jang-Won Lee) 국제e-비즈니스학회 2007 e-비즈니스 연구 Vol.8 No.2

한ㆍEU간 통상환경변화가 수출에 미치는 영향

최창열(Choi, Chang-Yeoul),최혁준(Choi, Hyuk-Jun) 한국통상정보학회 2005 통상정보연구 Vol.7 No.3

The exchange rate volatility has been increased since the time when the floating exchange rate system was introduced in Korea. As a result, the increase of the exchange rate volatility raised the risk in international trades in Korea. The purpose of this study in to study the feature of exchange rate volatility and the main sources of its increase and to confirm whether the exchange rate volatility influence export volume and price of Korea. In the first place, I measured exchange rate volatility with two methods. The one is descriptive statistic method such as the width of daily exchange rate fluctuation and the rate of exchange rate devaluation. The other is the time varying conditional variance of exchange rate. Then, I studied the sources of exchange rate volatility. In the second place, I defined the exchange rate volatility as the time varying conditional variance and estimated it by using elastic a approach model which shows exchange rate is affected by itself and its conditional variance, I estimated its effects on export volumes and prices of electric home appliances, information & communication equal and semi-conductor. The result of this study is as follows. With presumed result EU and Korea because is not the goods which is to substantial competition relationship, The effect where the relative value change of presumed result expression anger and the dollar of import and export function goes mad to the import and export of Korea the income compared to is to export and it is appearing a lot. The EU goods is sold more expensively the Korean goods than from about length being caused by American market of the dollar and the balance of trade of Korea is visible like being visible the improvement of single breadth. Because the relationship of competition is weak but substantially there is to a short term and expression - the effect where the dollar rate fluctuation is big in Korean trade there is a possibility of saying that widely known it is not.

중국 물류기업의 SCM 전략과 기업성과

최창열(Chang-Yeoul Choi) 국제e-비즈니스학회 2007 e-비즈니스 연구 Vol.8 No.4

한·중 온라인 주식투자자의 투자특성에 대한 분석

최창열(Chang-Yeoul Choi),이주영(Joo-Young Lee),함형범(Hyung-Bum Ham) 국제e-비즈니스학회 2010 e-비즈니스 연구 Vol.11 No.1

모바일 3.0과 NFC 기반에서의 e-비즈니스 모델

최창열(Chang-Yeoul, Choi),한수범(Soo-Beom, Han) 국제e-비즈니스학회 2011 e-비즈니스 연구 Vol.12 No.3

위안화 절상이 한중 교역에 미치는 영향

최창열(Chang-Yeoul Choi) 한국무역연구원 2010 무역연구 Vol.6 No.2

This study is on the evolution of Korean companies' investment strategies in accordance to the changes in China's international trade and investment structures and policies since joining the World Trade Organization (WTO). Upon joining WTO, China has made many changes to its trade policies and systems, and direct investment of foreigners. These change have greatly influenced Korea's trading with and investment in China. Since it joined WTO, China has been applying stricter restrictions on exportation due to pressure in international trade and commerce, pressure to increase the value of RMB, and problems with excess liquidity with the constant increase in trading profits. As for the direct investment of foreigners, it has been focusing on reforming the investment-dependent economic structure and using foreign investment to develop its industrial structures and for the global development of Chinese companies. Therefore, Korean companies are required to utilize the business opportunities created by the Chinese government's new economic structure, trade relations, and investment policies and benchmark advanced investment companies' strategies in China to develop new policies and systems that may involve increasing the added value, expanding the service market, and targeting the domestic market.