시계열분석을 이용한 중부내륙지역에서 수수-수단그라스 교잡종의 건물수량 추세 확인

김문주 ( Moonju Kim ),조무환 ( Mu Hwan Jo ),( Befekadu Chemere ),성경일 ( Kyung Il Sung ) 한국축산학회(구 한국동물자원과학회) 2021 동물자원연구 Vol.32 No.2

This study aimed to determine the trend in dry matter yield (DMY) of a new sorghum-sudangrass hybrid (SSH) in the central inland regions of Korea. The metadata (n=388) were collected from various reports of the experiments examining the adaptability of this new variety conducted by the Rural Development Administration (1988-2013). To determine the trend, the parameters of autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) were estimated from correlogram of Autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial ACF (PACF) using time series modeling. The results showed that the trend increased slightly year by year. Furthermore, ARIMA (1, 1, 0) was found to be the optimal model to describe the historical trend. This means that the trend in the DMY of the SSH was associated with changes over the past two years but not with changes from three years ago. Although climatic variables, such as temperature, precipitation, and sunshine were also considered as environmental factors for the annual trends, no clear association was observed between DMY and climates. Therefore, more precise processing and detailed definition of climate considering specific growth stages are required to validate this association. In particular, research on the impact of heavy rainfall and typhoons, which are expected to cause damage in the short term, on DMY trends is ongoing, and the model confirmed in this study is expected to play an important role in studying this aspect. Furthermore, we plan to add the environmental factors such as soil and cultivation management as well as climate to our future studies.

사일리지용 옥수수의 메타자료를 이용한 적정 파종 및 수확시기의 탐색

조현욱,김시철,김문주,김지융,조무환,김병완,성경일,Jo, Hyun Wook,Kim, Si Chul,Kim, Moon Ju,Kim, Ji Yung,Jo, Mu Hwan,Kim, Byong Wan,Sung, Kyung Il 한국초지조사료학회 2020 한국초지조사료학회지 Vol.40 No.1

본 연구는 사일리지용 옥수수(whole crop maize: WCM)의 메타자료를 통해 적정 파종 및 수확시기에 대한 탐색을 생육도일(Growing degree days, ℃; GDD)을 이용하여 검토하였다. WCM의 원자료(1982~2012년)는 학위논문, 학회지 및 연구보고서로부터 실험별 연도, 품종, 지역, 파종시기 및 수확시기 등 생육정보가 포함된 3,152점이었다. 수집한 자료 중 파종시기 및 수확시기와 관련된 자료는 데이터입력, 자료선별 및 오류자료수정 과정을 거쳐 최종데이터세트(파종시기 29점, 수확시기 92점; 총 121점)를 구성하였고 최적점 설정, 메타분석, 2차모형 구축을 통하여 적정 파종 및 수확시기의 허용 범위를 고려한 기간과 GDD를 제시하였다. WCM의 적정 파종 및 수확기간은 각각 4월 14일~5월 3일 및 8월 15일~9월 4일이었으며 이 때 GDD는 23.7~99.6℃ 및 1,328.7~1,602.1℃였다. 이상에서 GDD는 WCM의 적정 파종 및 수확시기의 판단기준으로 사용 가능할 것으로 사료된다 This study aimed to discuss the optimal seeding and harvesting dates with growing degree days(GDD) via meta-data of whole crop maize(WCM). The raw data (n=3,152) contains cultivation year, cultivars, location, seeding and harvesting dates collected from various reports such as thesis, science journals and research reports (1982-2012). The processing was: recording, screening and modification of errors; Then, the final dataset (n=121) consists of seeding cases (n=29), and harvesting cases (n=92) which were used to detect the optimum. In addition, the optimal periods considering tolerance range and GDD also were estimated. As a result, the optimum seeding and harvesting periods were 14th April ~ 3rd May and 15th August ~ 4th September, respectively; where, their GDDs were 23.7~99.6℃ and 1,328.7~1,602.1℃, respectively. These GDDs could be used as a judge standard for selecting the seeding and harvesting dates.

구조방정식모형을 이용한 기후 네트워크 하에서 청보리 생산량에 영향을 미치는 기후의 인과성 분석

김문주 ( Moonju Kim ),조무환 ( Mu Hwan Jo ),성경일 ( Kyung Il Sung ) 한국축산학회 2021 동물자원연구 Vol.32 No.4

본 연구는 구조방정식모형을 이용하여 자연생태계의 일부분인 기후 네트워크를 구축하여 청보리(Whole crop barley: WCB)의 생산량에 영향을 미치는 기후요인의 인과성을 분석할 목적으로 수행하였다. WCB 데이터셋(n=316)은 사료정보와 기상정보로 이루어졌다. 여기서 생초수량, 건물수량, 재배연도 및 지역을 포함하는 사료정보는 다양한 신품종재배실험(1993-2012)으로부터 수집하였다. 기상정보는 일평균온도, 강수 및 일조시간을 포함하며 기상청의 기상정보시스템으로부터 수집하였다. 기상 변수는 파종일부터 수확일까지 기간을 계절(가을, 겨울 및 이듬해봄)로 구분한 생육기간, 누적온도, 강수 및 일조시간이었다. 생산량에 영향을 미치는 기후의 인과성 네트워크는 구조방정식에 의해 모델로 만들었다. 그 결과, 세가지 특징으로 가을과 이듬해봄 간의 종단효과, WCB 생산량에 대한 직접효과, 그리고 온도를 통한 강수의 간접효과가 뚜렷하게 나타났다. WCB 생산량에 대한 중요성은 이듬해봄 온도(0.45), 가을온도(0.35), 월동(-0.16) 및 이듬해봄 강수(0.04) 순으로 나타났다. 그러므로 본 연구를 통해 온도, 생장일수, 강수 및 일조를 포함한 기후 네트워크에서 다른 기후요인들이 최종경로인 이듬해 봄의 온도와 생장일수를 통해 WCB 생산량에 간접적으로 영향을 미친다는 결론을 내렸다. This study aimed to analyze causality of climatic factors that affecting the yield of whole crop barley (WCB) by constructing a network within the natural ecosystem via the structural equation model. The WCB dataset (n=316) consisted of data on the forage information and climatic information. The forage information was collected from numerous experimental reports from New Cultivars of Winter Crops (1993-2012) and included details of fresh and dry matter yield, and the year and location of cultivation. The climatic information included details of the daily mean temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration from the weather information system of the Korea Meteorological Administration. The variables were growing days, accumulated temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration in the season for the period of seeding to harvesting. The data was collected over 3 consecutive seasons―autumn, winter, and the following spring. We created a causality network depicting the effect of climatic factors on production by structural equation modeling. The results highlight: (i) the differences in the longitudinal effects between autumn and next spring, (ii) the factors that directly affect WCB production, and (iii) the indirect effects by certain factors, via two or more paths. For instance, the indirect effect of precipitation on WCB production in the following spring season via its effect on temperature was remarkable. Based on absolute values, the importance of WCB production in decreasing order was: the following spring temperature (0.45), autumn temperature (0.35), wintering (-0.16), and following spring precipitation (0.04). Therefore, we conclude that other climatic factors indirectly affect production through the final pathway, temperature and growing days in the next spring, in the climate-production network for WCB including temperature, growing days, precipitation and sunshine duration.

수확시기에 따른 사일리지용 옥수수의 생육특성 및 수량 비교

정의수(Eui-Soo Chung),조무환(Mu-Hwan Jo),김종근(Jong-Keun Kim),남덕우(Deuk-Woo Nam),진성주(Sung-Joo Jin),장석윤(Suek-Yoon Jang),강희설(Hee-Seol Kang) 한국초지조사료학회 2010 한국초지조사료학회지 Vol.30 No.4

본 연구는 수확시기에 따른 사일리지용 옥수수의 생육특성을 구명하고자 2010년 4월 19일 파이오니아 31N27 품종을 수원 지방에 파종하였다. 7월 10일부터 9월 20일까지 10일 간격으로 수확하여 건물률과 수량조사를 하였다. 경엽의 건물률은 수확시기가 늦어질수록 꾸준히 증가하다가 9월 10일 가장 높은 58.5%를 보였고 그 이후에는 감소하였고 (p < 0.05), 암이삭의 건물률은 직선적으로 증가하였으며 전체 건물률도 지속적인 증가를 보였으며(p < 0.05) 8월 11일에 사일리지 조제에 적합한 건물률 30%에 도달 하였다. 총건물에 대한 암이삭의 건물함량 비율은 출수 이후부터 증가하여 (p<0.05) 9월 20일에는 63.2%에 이르렀다. 암이삭의 건물수량은 수확시기가 늦어질수록 증가하였으나 경엽 및 전체의 건물수량과 TDN 수량은 9월 10일까지 유의적으로 증가하다가 그 이후에는 감소하였다(p<0.05). 회귀식에 의한 결정계수(R-square)는 경엽은 0.57로 낮은 반면 암이삭의 상관계수는 0.92, 총 건물수량은 0.90, TDN 수량은 0.93으로 높게 나타났다. Pioneer 31N27 variety was planted on April 19 at Suwon to determine agronomic and silage traits over time. Ten harvest times was made at intervals of 10 days beginning July 1 to September 20, 2010. Stalk dry matter (DM) content increased with maturity, the highest by 58.5% on September 10 and then decreased (p<0.05). Ear and whole-plant DM content increased linearly with maturity, and whole-plant DM reached by 30% on August 11. Ear DM to whole-plant DM increased with maturity and reached by 63.2% on September 20. Ear DM yield increased with maturity, and stalk, whole-plant and TDN yield were the highest on September 10 and then decreased (p<0.05). A regression coefficient for DM yield with maturity were 0.57 for stalk, 0.92 for ear, 0.90 for whole-plant and 0.93 for TDN yield.

혼파초지에서 모형의 단계적 적용을 통한 수량예측 연구

오승민,김문주,팽경룬,이배훈,김지융,김병완,조무환,성경일,Oh, Seung Min,Kim, Moon Ju,Peng, Jinglun,Lee, Bae Hun,Kim, Ji Yung,Kim, Byong Wan,Jo, Mu Hwan,Sung, Kyung Il 한국초지조사료학회 2017 한국초지조사료학회지 Vol.37 No.1

The objective of this study was to select a model showing high-levels of interpretability which is high in R-squared value in terms of predicting the yield in the mixed pasture using the factors of fertilization, seeding rate and years after pasture establishment in steps, as well as the climate as a basic factor. The processes of constructing the yield prediction model for the mixed pasture were performed in the sequence of data collection (forage and climatic data), preparation, analysis, and model construction. Through this process, six models were constructed after considering climatic variables, fertilization management, seeding rates, and periods after pasture establishment years in steps, thereafter the optimum model was selected through considering the coincidence of the models to the forage production theories. As a result, Model VI (R squared = 53.8%) including climatic variables, fertilization amount, seeding rates, and periods after pasture establishment was considered as the optimum yield prediction model for mixed pastures in South Korea. The interpretability of independent variables in the model were decreased in the sequence of climatic variables(24.5%), fertilization amount(17.8%), seeding rates(10.7%), and periods after pasture establishment(0.8%). However, it is necessary to investigate the reasons of positive correlation between dry matter yield and days of summer depression (DSD) by considering cultivated locations and using other cumulative temperature related variables instead of DSD. Meanwhile the another research about the optimum levels of fertilization amounts and seeding rates is required using the quadratic term due to the certain value-centered distribution of these two variables. 본 연구는 기후요인을 이용한 혼파초지 수량예측모형을 기초로 하여 시비, 파종 및 조성연차 요인을 단계적으로 적용하여 해석력이 높은 모형을 선정하는데 목적이 있다. 혼파초지 수량예측모형 구축 과정은 자료(풀사료 및 기상자료)수집, 가공, 분석 및 모형 구축의 순이었다. 여기서 수량예측모형은 기후, 시비, 파종 및 조성연차 요인을 고려하여 6가지를 구축하였으며, 해석력 및 풀사료 생산 이론 측면의 검토를 통해 최적의 모형을 선택하였다. 그 결과 기후, 시비 및 파종과 조성연차(조성연차의 그룹화) 요인을 고려한 Model VI이 선택되었다(해석력=53.8%). Model VI의 요인 별 해석력은 기후요인이 가장 크고(24.5%) 시비(17.8%), 파종(10.7%) 및 조성연차(0.8%) 요인의 순이었다. 그러나 건물수량과 하고일수 간에 나타난 정(+)의 상관관계는 지역별 및 적산변수 등의 관점에서 검토가 필요하다. 또한 시비량 및 파종량은 특정값에 집중적으로 분포하고 있어 이차항(Quadratic term)을 이용하여 적정 수준에 관한 연구가 요구된다.

혼파초지에서 지역별 건물수량과 하고일수 간 관계

오승민,김문주,팽경룬,이배훈,김지융,베페카두,김시철,김경대,김병완,조무환,성경일,Oh, Seung Min,Kim, Moonju,Peng, Jinglun,Lee, Bae Hun,Kim, Ji Yung,Chemere, Befekadu,Kim, Si Chul,Kim, Kyeong Dae,Kim, Byong Wan,Jo, Mu Hwan,Sung, Kyung Il 한국초지조사료학회 2018 한국초지조사료학회지 Vol.38 No.1

본 연구는 혼파초지 수량예측모형에서 기후특성이 뚜렷한 지역의 자료 제거 및 지역별 구분을 통해 건물수량과 하고일수 간 상관관계를 검토하였다. 데이터세트는 총 582점으로 11개 지역으로 분류되며 혼파조합은 총 41가지였다. 변수에서 반응변수는 건물수량 이었으며 설명변수는 하고일수를 포함한 5가지의 기상변수를 이용하였다. 통계방법은 산점도, 기술통계량 및 상관분석을 거쳐 다중회귀분석을 통해 건물수량과 하고일수 간 상관관계를 확인하였다. 산점도 분석 결과 데이터세트를 지역별로 구분하였을 때 9개 지역 중 7개에서 건물수량과 하고일수 간 부(-)의 상관관계가 나타나 지역을 구분할 필요가 있었으며 대표본 근사이론을 적용할 수 있었던 5개 지역(화성, 수원, 대전, 시흥 및 광주)을 선정하였다. 5개 지역의 상관분석 결과 3개 지역(화성, 수원 및 시흥)에서, 다중회귀분석결과 화성에서 건물수량에 대한 하고일수의 효과가 부(-)로 나타났다. 따라서 혼파초지의 건물수량에 대한 하고일수의 상관관계는 지역별로 구분하였을 때 풀사료 생산이론과 일치하여 수량예측모형의 정밀도를 높일 수 있을 것으로 판단하였다. Yield prediction model for mixed pasture was developed with a shortage that the relationship between dry matter yield (DMY) and days of summer depression (DSD) was not properly reflected in the model in the previous research. Therefore, this study was designed to eliminate the data of the regions with distinctly different climatic conditions and then investigate their relationships DMY and DSD using the data in each region separately of regions with distinct climatic characteristics and classify the data based on regions for further analysis based on the previous mixed pasture prediction model. The data set used in the research kept 582 data points from 11 regions and 41 mixed pasture types. The relationship between DMY and DSD in each region were analyzed through scatter plot, correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis in each region separately. In the statistical analysis, DMY was taken as the response variable and 5 climatic variables including DSD were taken as explanatory variables. The results of scatter plot showed that negative correlations between DMY and DSD were observed in 7 out of 9 regions. Therefore, it was confirmed that analyzing the relationship between DMY and DSD based on each region is necessary and 5 regions were selected (Hwaseong, Suwon, Daejeon, Siheung and Gwangju) since the data size in these regions is large enough to perform the further statistical analysis based on large sample approximation theory. Correlation analysis showed that negative correlations were found between DMY and DSD in 3 (Hwaseong, Suwon and Siheung) out of the 5 regions, meanwhile the negative relationship in Hwaseong was confirmed through multiple regression analysis. Therefore, it was concluded that the interpretability of the yield prediction model for mixed pasture could be improved based on constructing the models using the data from each region separately instead of using the pooled data from different regions.

강원도에서 토양과 기후 데이터베이스를 이용한 이탈리안 라이그라스의 재배 적지 구분

김경대(Kyung-Dae Kim),성경일(Kyung-Il Sung),정영상(Yeong-Sang Jung),이현일(Hyun-Il Lee),김은정(Eun-Jeong Kim),Jalil Ghassemi Nejad,조무환(Mu-Hwan Jo),임영철(Young-Chul Lim) 한국초지조사료학회 2012 한국초지조사료학회지 Vol.32 No.4

As a part of establishing suitability classification for forage production, use of the national soil and climate database was attempted for Italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum Lam., IRG) in Gangwon Province. The soil data base were from Heugtoram of the National Academy of Agricultural Science, and the climate data base were from the National Center for Agro-Meteorology, respectively. Soil physical properties including soil texture, drainage, slope available depth and surface rock contents, and soil chemical properties including soil acidity and salinity, organic matter content were selected as soil factors. The crieria and weighting factors of these elements were scored. Climate factors including average daily minimum temperature, average temperature from March to May, the number of days of which average temperature was higher than 5℃ from September to December, the number of days of precipitation and its amount from October to May of the following year were selected, and criteria and weighting factors were scored. The electronic maps were developed with these scores using the national data base of soil and climate. Based on soil scores, the area of Goseong, Sogcho, Gangreung, and Samcheog in east coastal region with gentle slope were classified as the possible and/or the proper area for IRG cultivation in Gangwon Province. The lands with gentle or moderate slope of Cheolwon, Yanggu, Chuncheon, Hweongseong, Pyungchang and Jeongsun in west side slope of Taebaeg mountains were classified as the possible and/or proper area as well. Based on climate score, the east coastal area of Goseong, Sogcho, Yangyang, Gangreung and Samcheog could be classified as the possible or proper area. Most area located on west side of the Taebaeg mountains were classified as not suitable for IRG production. In scattered area in Chuncheon and Weonju, where the scores exceeded 60, the IRG cultivation should be carefully managed for good production. For better application of electronic maps.