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Tobit모형을 이용한 외래관광객 방한 횟수 영향요인 분석
전철현(Chul Hyun Jeon),최승묵(Seung Mook Choi) 한양대학교 관광연구소 2011 觀光硏究論叢 Vol.23 No.3
``국제관광`` 또는 ``관광수요``의 결정요인을 규명하는 것은 관광학계의 오래된, 그리고 매우 중요한 연구주제이다. 그동안 한국을 방문하는 외래관광객 수요에 영향을 미치는 요인을 분석한 연구들은 대부분 거시경제적 접근(환율, 국민소득, 국제사건 등)을 실시하였다. 이에 본 연구에서는 미시경제적 관점의 접근(소득, 성별, 교육수준 등)을 통해서 우리나라를 방문하는 외래관광객의 한국 방문 횟수에 영향을 미치는 요인을 도출하였다. 본 연구의 분석에 이용된 자료는 2009년 외래관광객 실태조사의 원자료(raw data)이다. 2009년 외래관광객 실태조사 유효 표본 수는 11,912개이나, 실증분석 및 모형 추정 과정에서 무응답, 불성실한 응답, 불명확한 응답 등 분석에 부적합한 표본을 제거하여 6,038개의 표본을 확보하였다. 그 후 모형 추정에서의 편의(bias) 발생 가능성을 제거하고 분석모형의 신뢰도를 제고하기 위하여 한국 방문 횟수가 5회 미만인 5,054개 표본을 추출한후 Tobit모형을 추정하였다. Tobit모형 추정 결과 한국방문의 주된 목적, 지방방문 여부, 한국 체재 1일당 여행비용, 한국여행 만족도, 성별, 교육 수준, 소득 수준, 연령 등이 외래관광객들의 최근 3년간 한국 방문 횟수에 통계적으로 유의한 영향을 미친 요인으로 도출 되었다. 이들 항목들의 계수의 절대값 크기를 비교해보면 한국여행 만족도(0.191), 한국방문의 주된 목적(-0.102), 지방방문 여부(0.096) 순으로 최근 3년간 한국 방문 횟수에 영향을 미친 것으로 나타났다. 요약하면, 외래관광객의 한국 방문 횟수를 증대시키기 위해서는 우선적으로 한국여행에 대한 만족도를 높여야 한다. 그리고 외래관광객의 성별, 교육수준, 연령 등을 고려한 맞춤형 관광상품, MICE·의료관광 등 다양한 목적의 관광상품 개발이 필요하다. 아울러 인터넷 등 지역 관광정보 접근성 향상, 언어 및 의사소통 문제 해결, 수도권 이외 지역 관광상품 발굴 등이 필요하다는 결론을 도출하였다. The purpose of this study is to estimate foreign tourists visit behavior and derive implications to improve foreign tourism policies and conditions by using 2009 international visitor survey data(MCST, 2010). As the result of tobit model estimation and the data frequency analysis on the observations 6,038, internet web search is a main approach to korean tour sites and information, which is associated with one of language inconvenience, and a single foreign visitor relatively occupies 40% higher ratio in them. Average tour expenditure of foreign visitors represents about $1,500∼2,300 between individual and full package visitors for a week. Especially, asian people shows a relatively high visit ratio in Korean visitor races and main purpose of foreign visitors in Korea is both travel and leisure, and youth generations show preference of Korean visit trend. In addition frequency of Korea visit increases with less travel costs, improvement of tour satisfaction, variety of visit purpose, more provision of regional sightseeing, higher ratio of male, higher education, high income, and more aged visitors. Hence, tourism policies and advertisements to foreign visit and visitors in Korea need to more strategically focus on these characteristics in order to response change of rapid tour demand of foreign visitors and elicit Korean visit demand.
전철현 ( Chul Hyun Jeon ),이충선 ( Chung Sun Lee ),신효중 ( Hio Jung Shin ) 한국환경연구원 2010 환경정책연구 Vol.9 No.2
The purposes of the paper are to estimate welfare change from water quality degradation by using contingent valuation method in Namdae stream of Gangrung and identify what factors of Namdae stream are important to Gangrun citizens. The study results show their total WTP per year and per household, ₩117,040 to improve Namdae stream quality from grade 3 to grade 1, including monetary WTP ₩87,502 plus opportunity cost of volunteering time for protection campaign, ₩29,538. The amount of total welfare change from water quality degradation based on the total WTP estimated above is calculated to be ₩27 billion of which the amount, as a sort of damage cost from water quality degraded, is so huge. All projects and policies related to natural environments, therefore, should consider both indirect and direct effects from them because natural environments have the irreversibility once degraded or deteriorated and would ultimately be influential on humans, both current and future generations, with tremendous amounts of time and costs beyond our imagination.
제주시험림의 상록활엽수림 식생구조 특성 -한남시험림을 중심으로-
전철현 ( Chul Hyun Jeon ),원현규 ( Hyun Kyu Won ),김하송 ( Ha Song Kim ),조영준 ( Yeong Jun Cho ) 한국도서(섬)학회 2016 韓國島嶼硏究 Vol.28 No.1
This research was carried out from July to December of 2015 in the evergreen broad-leaved forests around Hannam Experiment Forest in Jeju-do. A total of 9 plots were set up in this study area and the plant communities were divided into 5 communities of Castanopsis cuspidata var. sievoldii community, Quercus acuta community, Quercus acuta-Carpinus tschonoskii community, Quercus acuta-Pinus densiflora community, Quercus glauca-Pinus densiflora community. Overall, in order to extract the vegetation units based on the vegetation ecological information of the evergreen broad-leaved forest in Korea, the distribution area, habitat characteristic and its main distribution of the Castanopsis cuspidata var. sievoldii community, Quercus acuta community and Quercus glauca community were compared. The main plant communities of the Castanopsis cuspidata var. sievoldii forest in Jeju-do, were the Castanopsis cuspidata var. sievoldii-Ardisia japonica association, the Castanopsis cuspidata var. sievoldii-Arachniodes aristata association, the Castanopsis cuspidata var. sievoldii-Hosta minor association, the Castanopsis cuspidata var. sievoldii-Machilus thunbergii community, and the Castanopsis cuspidata var. sievoldii-Quercus glauca community. The Quercus acuta forest examined in Hannam Experiment Forest by any dominant species were Quercus acuta community, Quercus acuta-Carpinus tschonoskii community, and Quercus acuta-Pinus densiflora community. The Quercus glauca forest was distributed in the Quercus glauca-Cyrtomium fortunei association in Gotjawal around Jeju-do, which developed an unique vegetation due to the specific microclimate formed by its geographical features. Also the actual vegetation map produced by the main evergreen broad-leaved forest communities represented the survey area. The main evergreen broad-leaved forest communities represented in the vegetation map were divided into the Castanopsis cuspidata var. sievoldii community, the Quercus acuta community, the Quercus acuta-Carpinus tschonoskii community, the Quercus acuta-Pinus densiflora community and the Quercus glauca-Pinus densiflora community.
김현희 ( Hyun-hee Kim ),김다빈 ( Da-bin Kim ),전철현 ( Chul-hyun Jeon ),김찬수 ( Chan-soo Kim ),공우석 ( Woo-seok Kong ) 한국환경영향평가학회 2017 환경영향평가 Vol.26 No.4
본 연구는 전라남도 도서지역 귀화식물의 분포 현황을 도서생물지리학적 관점에서 분석하였다. 유인도 47곳, 무인도 194곳의 식물상 자료를 분석한 결과 귀화식물은 30과 134종이 분포한다. 분포역이 가장 넓은 종은 소리쟁이(Rumex crispus)로 모두 141곳의 도서에 분포한다. 도서별 평균 귀화식물 종수는 유인도 20.6종(±14.22), 무인도 3.7종(±3.89)이다. 도서별로는 여수시 금오도가 59종으로 가장 많다. 자생식물 대비 귀화식물의 비율인 귀화율은 유인도서 7.66%(±3.96), 무인도서 4.97%(±3.70)이다. 지역별로는 전라남도 서해 도서지역 귀화율이 5.92%(±4.49)로 남해 도서지역 4.96%(±2.15)보다 높다. 특히 유인도서 내 귀화율은 서해 도서지역 8.39%(±4.37), 남해 도서지역 5.80%(±1.41)로 그 차이가 더 크다. 도서지역 귀화식물 귀화율은 섬의 크기와 유의한 양의 관계(r=0.412, p<0.01)를 갖지만, 육지로부터의 거리, 해발고도와의 상관성은 유의하지 않다. 법정 생태계 교란종은 8종이 분포하며 종에 따라 분포역에 차이가 있다. 이와 같은 도서 및 지역 간 차이는 물리적 환경 차이와 함께 육지와의 왕래 정도, 경작에 따른 토지 간섭 등 자연 및 인문 환경요인이 복합적으로 반영된 결과로 보인다. 도서지역은 서식지가 제한적이기 때문에 외부로부터 유입되는 종이나 각종 환경 변화에 취약할 수밖에 없다. 따라서 도서지역 외래종에 대한 지속적인 모니터링과 관리가 필요하다. This study analyzed the status of the naturalized plants in islands in Jeollanamdo from an island biogeographic perspective. As a result of a floristic analysis at 47 inhabited islands and 194 uninhabited islands, 30 families and 134 species naturalized plants are reported. The most commonly occurring naturalized plant from 141 islands was Rumex crispus. The average number of naturalized plants by islands is 20.6 species (±14.22) at the inhabited islands and 3.7 species (±3.89) at the uninhabited islands. Presence of fifty nine naturalized species at Geumodo in Yeosu-si is the largest in number. The naturalization ratio, which is the ratio of naturalized plants to native plants, is 7.66% (±3.96) in the inhabitable islands and 4.97% (±3.70) in the uninhabitable islands. The naturalization ratio among islands of the West Sea in Jeollanam-do is 5.92% (±4.49), and it is higher than 4.96% (±2.15) in islands in the South Sea. Especially, the naturalization ratio at the inhabitable islands, i.e., 8.39% (±4.37) at the islands of the West Sea is higher than 5.80% (±1.41) at islands in the South Sea. The naturalization ratio of naturalized plants at the islands shows positive correlation with the size of the island (r=0.412, p<0.01), but the correlations with distance from the mainland and altitude above sea level are not significant. Eight ecosystem disturbing species designated by law are reported, and each species shows distinct distributional ranges. The regional differences in the number of naturalized plant species seem to be a result of the complex reflection of natural and human environmental factors, such as the degree of traffic between mainland and islands, degree of cultivation activities, along with the physical environmental differences. Since islands have limited habitats and resources, islands could be more vulnerable to the incoming species from outside, and environmental changes than mainland. Therefore, continuous monitoring and management against the naturalized plants in islands are needed.
제주시험림 산림식생의 군락분포에 관한 연구 -한남시험림을 중심으로-
원현규 ( Hyun Kyu Won ),전철현 ( Chul Hyun Jeon ),김하송 ( Ha Song Kim ),조영준 ( Yeong Jun Cho ) 한국도서(섬)학회 2016 韓國島嶼硏究 Vol.28 No.1
This research was carried out from August to December 2015 to figure out the mountain forest vegetation of Jeju Hannam Experimental Forest``s vegetation. Mountain forest vegetation is subdivided into Plantation, Deciduous broad-leaved forest, Evergreen coniferous forest, Larix forest(Evergreen), Larix forest(Deciduous), Evergreen broad-leaved forest, Mixed deciduous forest, and other vegetation areas. These other areas include 18 communities of mountain forest vegetation and 2 communities of other areas vegetation. In total, 20 communities were researched; the mountain forest vegetation classified according to the physiognomy classification hold 4 communities of Plantation, 3 communities of the Deciduous broad-leaved forest, 1 community of the Evergreen coniferous forest, 3 communities of the Larix forest(Evergreen), 3 communities of the Larix forest(Deciduous), 2 communities of the Evergreen broad-leaved forest, 2 communities of the Mixed deciduous forest, and 2 from the other vegetation areas. As for the distribution rate of surveyed main communities, the Carpinus tschonoskii and Quercus serrata communities account for 99.7 percent of deciduous broad leaved forest. The Cryptomeria japonica community takes up 98.0 percent of plantation and the Quercus acuta community holds 85.8 percent of Evergreen broad-leaved forest. In conclusion, minority species consisting of the Carpinus tschonoskii, Cryptomeria japonica, Quercus acuta, Quercus serrata, and Castanopsis sieboldii are distributed as dominant species of the uppermost part of Hannam Experimental Forest. In addition, because of the vegetation succession and climate factors, numerous colonies formed by the two communities are expected to be replaced by the climax species of the Evergreen broad-leaved forest and the Mixed deciduous forest.
전라남도 남해안과 서해안 유인도서에서 팔색조 분포 및 강수량 비교
김은미 ( Kim Eun-mi ),전철현 ( Jeon Chul-hyun ),강창완 ( Kang Chang-wan ) 한국도서(섬)학회 2017 韓國島嶼硏究 Vol.29 No.4
Breeding sites of the Fairy Pitta (Pitta nympha) have been lost or degraded during the industrialization and economic development in the 19th and 20th century. The number of Fairy Pittas have decreased accordingly, and it is enlisted as Vulnerable species in the IUCN Red List. In the context of the conservation of threatened animal species, it is important to collect and understand basic information about the distribution of target species, their population size, and non-biological factors like weather conditions. Based on the previous knowledge on its breeding environments, we hypothesized that the distribution of Fairly Pittas in insular environments were related with both of forest structure and precipitation which often determines the density of foods and vegetation covers. In order to confirm the distribution of Fairy Pittas breeding in insular environments in the southern and western coasts of Jeollanam-do Province, we conducted field surveys on 27 inhabited islands more than twice a month from the middle of May to the end of August from 2014 to 2016. We used forest maps of selected islands in Jellanam-do and known breeding habitats in Jeju Island were also used for comparison of forest structures. Data about the amount of precipitation accumulated from May to September between 2014 and 2016 were downloaded from the Automated Weather Station (AWS) archives of the Korea Meteorological Administration. As a result of the field surveys, we confirmed 64 individuals in the study sites in Jeollanam-do Province; a total of 41 pittas were found on 9 of 12 islands in south and 23 birds on five of 15 islands in west. Fairy Pittas were commonly observed in most of the southern islands as well as five islands in Jindo-gun and Shinan-gun in the west where forests were dominated by old growhs of evergreen broad-leaved forests similar to the breeding habiats in Jeju Island. On the other hands, pittas were seldom found on inhabited islands, outside Jindo and Shinan, in the west where the proportion of old forests is lower and the shrubby underlayer below the Pinus thunbergii canopy is too densely developed for foraging of pittas. Precipitation on the islands where the pittas were confirmed was below 1,000 mm over the breeding period and lower than that of the breeding habitats in Jeju Island (>1,000-1,500 mm), suggesting a weak relationship between the distribution of Fairy Pittas and the precipitation. This study suggests that the distribution of Fairy Pittas in insular environments in Jellanam-do may be more determined by forest structures but not by precipitation.