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마르코프 체인 모델, MDP(Markov Decision Process)를 활용한 스포츠 전략 분석 - 컬링 사례
배기욱,박동현,김동현,신하용 대한산업공학회 2015 대한산업공학회 춘계학술대회논문집 Vol.2015 No.4
Curling is the one of the most important sports which requires in-game decision making. In this paper, we derive the optimal strategy to maximize expected probability of winning. The strategies depend on the current score difference and the possession of hammer. First, we utilize Markov Chain for modeling curling game, then compare 2 strategies which are ‘Blank End’ and ‘Take a point’ at the end of ‘End’. Furthermore, we develop our problem to Markov decision process (MDP) model to determine the end scale optimal strategy and solve with dynamic programming.
마르코프 체인 모델, MDP(Markov Decision Process)를 활용한 스포츠 전략 분석 - 컬링 사례
배기욱,박동현,김동현,신하용 한국경영과학회 2015 한국경영과학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.2015 No.4
Curling is the one of the most important sports which requires in-game decision making. In this paper, we derive the optimal strategy to maximize expected probability of winning. The strategies depend on the current score difference and the possession of hammer. First, we utilize Markov Chain for modeling curling game, then compare 2 strategies which are ‘Blank End’ and ‘Take a point’ at the end of ‘End’. Furthermore, we develop our problem to Markov decision process (MDP) model to determine the end scale optimal strategy and solve with dynamic programming.
내장산국립공원 금선계곡과 원적계곡의 현존식생 및 식물군집구조
배기욱 ( Ki Wook Bae ),이경재 ( Kyong Jae Lee ),한봉호 ( Bong Ho Han ),김종엽 ( Jong Yup Kim ),장재훈 ( Jae Hoon Jang ) 한국환경생태학회 2012 한국환경생태학회지 Vol.26 No.3
본 연구는 내장산국립공원 금선계곡과 원적계곡을 대상으로 현존식생과 식물군집구조를 조사하여 식생구조 특성을 밝혀냄으로써 국립공원 관리에 필요한 기초자료를 제공하고자 수행하였다. 현존식생 조사결과, 굴참나무군집(47.3%)과 졸참나무군집(17.0%) 등 참나무류군집(64.3%)이 넓은 면적으로 분포하고 있었으나, 계곡부에는 개서어나무군집 (7.5%)과 느티나무군집(6.9%)이 분포하고 있었다. 400㎡크기의 조사구 20개소를 설정하여 classification 분석 중 TWINSPAN 기법을 이용하여 군집분류를 실시한 결과, 들메나무군집, 개서어나무군집, 개서어나무-굴피나무-느티나무 군집, 느티나무군집, 낙엽활엽수혼효군집, 비목나무-말채나무군집 등 6개 군집으로 분류되었다. 금선계곡은 평균경사 20°의 전석지대 계곡부로서 수령 86년생의 들메나무군집, 수령 56~79년생의 개서어나무군집, 수령 48~71년생의 개서 어나무-굴피나무-느티나무군집이 분포하고 있었다. 원적계곡은 평균경사 11°의 전석지대 계곡부로서 수령 52~71년생의 느티나무군집, 수령 49~70년생의 낙엽활엽수혼효군집, 수령 43~51년생의 비목나무-말채나무군집이 분포하고 있었다. 군집별 천이경향은 대부분 현 상태를 유지할 것으로 예측되었으며, 400㎡당 Shannon의 종다양도지수는 0.8220(들메나무군집)~1.3850(개서어나무군집)이었다. This study investigated the actual vegetation and plant community structure of Geumsun valley and Weonjeok valley of Naejangsan(Mt.) National Park to provide the data for park management. As a result of analysis of actual vegetation, Quercus variabilis community (47.3%) and Quercus serrata community (17.0%) are widely distributed but Carpinus tschonoskii community(7.5%) and Zelkova serrata community(6.9%) are distributed in valley forests. Plant communities were divided into 6 communities of Fraxinus mandshurica, Carpinus tschonoskii, Carpinus tschonoskii-Platycarya strobilacea-Zelkova serrata, Zelkova serrata, deciduous broad-leaved mixture(Zelkova serrata-Lindera erythrocarpa-Acer palmatum), and Lindera erythrocarpa-Cornus walteri according to the analysis of TWINSPAN of classification using 20 plots(400㎡). Geumseon valley is composed of boulder stone area of average slope 20°, and there were distributed Fraxinus mandshurica community of 86 years old, Carpinus tschonoskii community in age from 56 to 79, and Carpinus tschonoskii-Platycarya strobilacea-Zelkova serrata community in age from 48 to 71. Weonjeok valley is composed of boulder stone area of average slope 11°, and there were distributed Zelkova serrata community in age from 52 to 71, deciduous broad-leaved mixture community in age from 49 to 70, and Lindera erythrocarpa-Cornus walteri community in age from 43 to 51. Ecological succession of each community was predicted to maintain same state. The Shannon`s species diversity showed from 0.8220(Fraxinus mandshurica community) to 1.3850(Carpinus tschonoskii community) per unit area of 400㎡.
Mantel - Haenszel 통계량에 따른 생잔분석에 있어 Uncensored 표본비율의 변화에 관한 연구
이승욱,배기욱 한국보건통계학회 1987 한국보건정보통계학회지 Vol.12 No.1
The Mantel-Haenszel Statistic has been widely recommended for the statistical comparison of groups of observation of event times in which some observations may be censored. It is the test of most local power for detecting differences in failure rates, and has many applications in clinical trids and carcinogenesis experiments. In order to show the result, In this paper, computation procedure is used the variance ratio (V/S) of Mantel-Haenszel statiseic (V) and indirect standardization statistic(S). Then survival distribution and censoring distribution determine the values of No/N. (N). presents the total number of death, N presents the total number at risk) According to this result, incresing survival distribution's V and censoring distribution V', No/M increases rapidely. (Survival distribution F(t)=e^vt, censoring distribution I(t)=e^-v't) But censoring distribution influenced No/N more sensitively. This means that censoring distribution influences more than survival distribution on the test statistic. We can apply this result to experimental design for toxicology study of clinical trials, and determine number of sample individuals at risk when we have prior information about v and v'.