중국·대만관계와 동아시아의 안보

김승채 한국전략문제연구소 1997 전략연구 Vol.4 No.1

The aim of this article is to examine the influence of the relation between China and Taiwan on East Asian security. In order to achieve the aim, I analyzed changes of political relations between China and Taiwan, content and characteristics of economic exchanges, change of military and security policies between China and Taiwan, relation between the U.S. and the China Strait, development and prospects of the relation between china and Taiwan, and relation between two side and East Asian Security. After examination thoes factors I drew conclusion as follow. First, pertaining to political relations between two sides there are three evolving stages. In the first stage, 1949-1978 is characterized by extreme rivalry relation between two sides. During tis period period there was no attempt to breakthrough stalemate. The only effort to solve the relation by China resulted in an empty echo because of Taiwan's indifference. In the second period of 1978-1994 there were thaws between two sides. In 1979 the Standing Committee of the People's Republic of China reversed it's extremely hostilie policies toward Taiwan, and proposed to quit military confrontaton and called for 'three links' and 'four exchanges between two sides. In 1982 China passed the law which treats Taiwan as a 'special administrative region' with high degree of autonomy. After that Deng Xiaoping pronounced the reunification formula of 'one country, two systems' in 1984. To respond China's policy Taiwan lifted it's ban on visits by Taiwan residents to the mainland in November 1987. And in 1991 Taiwan ended its official 'state of war' with the mainland. During this period, especially from 1987 to 1993 personal exchanges between two sides reached 6 million persons. So I can say this period is identified by what we called thaw of cross-strait relation. Since 1995 I call it as a reconciliation period of two sides. During this period Jiang Zemin announced 'eight-point speech on Taiwan issue in 1995. But Lee Denghui's visit to the United States in June of 1995 made waves the relation between China and Taiwan including the relation between China and US. After that relation between China and Taiwan was deteriorated. Especially the military tension between China and Taiwan culminated just before Taiwan's the first direct presidential election in March of 1996. But China's missile exercise near Taiwan island made no winner or loser. China's military training helped Lee Denghui to be the first directly elected president. During the militay training period Lee's popularity has increased. As a result China had a good political effect on decreasing Taiwan's independent movement and Taiwan's political advertisement of the first direct presidential election. And US acquired leverage to China through selling F-16 fighters to Taiwan and could have arms trade with Taiwan. Second, the economic exchanges between two sides is the most important and positive aspect of cross strait relations. Trade between two sides reached 8.6 billion dollars in 1993. There are many charteristics in economic exchanges. For instance, economic exchanges depend on the principle of separation of politics from economics. Since 1987 economic exchanges between two through Honk Kong rapidly increased. Taiwan's investment pattern in China change from secific area and item to various area and items. Trade dependency of Taiwan on mainland has been intensified. And recently direct trade between two has increased. Pattern of economic cooperation of two sides is characterized by a vertical division of labor system in which raw materials of Taiwan are combined with Chinsese low cost labor and then export products the third world. The catalystic factors of trade between two sides are complementary nature of economies intermediate mechanism to foster economic exchanges, geographical nearness, and has a similar language and cultural background. But there are some restrictions on the relation between two sides. Such as different economic system, and different goals, furthermore economic exchanges are not to facilitate local economic development but to focus on oversea trade which is not contributed to significant trade conversion. Third, military relation of two sides is the worst aspects of the relations. China and Taiwan have increased their defense expenditures in opposition to the world trend. But each side has different characterics. First in defense expenditure China' aim to increase it is to react 'on the China Threat'. In other words China aims to respond western power, especially US in Northeast Asia. On the other hand Taiwan aims to build herself and to increase its autonmy from China. Second in arms import China had the autonomy. When China imports arms from outside, most of them from Russia, with technology. But Taiwan imports full set of arms. So China has autonomy of arms system, but not Taiwan. Like other fields in the area of military relation, there are opportunities and challenges. There are some opportunities to decrease military tension such as the Post-cold war trend, Chinese economic growth, uncertain succession problem, PLA problem, US factor. Taiwan also has striking military differences between two sides, Taiwan's economic dependency on China, and ambiguous attitude of other states which previously support Taiwan on Taiwan's military buildup. But on the other hand there are some challenges to aggrevate the military confrontation between both sides. Those conclude the voice of Taiwan's independence, Chinese political unstability after Deng, and Taiwan's effort to enter the UN and to expand foreign relationship with other countries. If the war occures Taiwan can adapt three strategies ; balance of power, formation of collective security system, and neo-functional strategy. Among three strategies the last neo-functional strategy is the best policy for Taiwan. US role toward cross-strait is clear. Though US superficially and formally support China, but she will practically raise Taiwan's hand. Under the Shanghai Communique in 1972, US acknowledged 'one China policy' in China. Since then US policy toward China officially followed this logic, but reality is different. From 1949 to 1979, normalization of diplomatic relation between US and China, US use black and white policy(zero-sum game) toward China, but after Deng era US will rely on positive-sum policy toward Cross-strait issues. Finally relation between two has influence on East Asian Security. It can give a chance to Japan to rebuild military power, and South and North Korea to buildup military power. And then it can increase the tension of Korean peninsular. In conclusion the relation between China and Taiwan has strong effects not only two states but also on neighbor countries.

북핵문제에 대한 주변국의 입장과 정책 ; 제2의 북핵 해결과정에서 중국의 대북정책과 한국의 대응

김승채 평화문제연구소 2003 統一問題硏究 Vol.15 No.2

The aim of this paper analyzes China``s North Korea Policy in the 2nd nuclear crisis and suggests Korea``s policy alternatives. Korean peninsula again has suffered serious tension since last October. North Korea acknowledged resuming nuclear program in last October and withdrew Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty(NPT) in early 2003. North Korea aroused nuclear program to give pressure United States corning on negotiation table, to guarantee the survival of Kim jung-il regime, to secure nuclear capability, to press South Korea, and to get state autonomy from China. With the North Korea``s reckless action makes China be a positive coordinator. China thought if North Korea really has a nuclear weapons and increases instability in Korea peninsular it will hinder for China``s long plan for super power through modernization and economic growth in the world. Now China realized that North Korea become from old friend to new challenges. Besides that China faced increased pressures from the United States to take stronger measures to curb Pyongyang``s nuclear programme. So China changed her stance from negative posture to positive towards North Korea nuclear issues. China changed her policy from ideological cooperation to practical cooperation, from isolated policy to core pole of regional diplomacy, and from ``lip-and-teeth`` relation to limited military alliance with North Korea. In conclusion China has relation with North Korea status quo In short term, selective cooperation in the long run. With the North Korean nuclear crisis South Korea will restore the dislocated Korea-U.S. alliance, make selective cooperation with China, and elastic and strategic cooperation with North Korea.

북경통신:세계여성대회와 중국여성

김승채 북한연구소 1995 北韓 Vol.- No.286

아시아태평양지역연구소 춘계 학술 세미나 ( 1999 . 6 . 1 ) : 제 1 회의 / 동북아 신질서와 중국 ; 제 3 주제 / 강택민 등장 이후 중국의 대한반도 정책과 전망

김승채 전남대학교 아시아태평양지역연구소 1998 전환기의 중국 , 그 위상과 향방 Vol.- No.-

정치경제 개혁의 30년 - 중국화 vs 세계화

김승채 사단법인 한국민족연구원 2009 민족연구 Vol.0 No.38

China made tremendous changes for 30 years since 1978 when CCP declared reform and open the door to the world its system. In politics, during thirty years China revised its constitution five times and reform state structure too. China also changed her ruling ideology, socialism tactically with the factors, ‘Lower Stage of Socialism’,‘ Three Representatives(sangedaibiao)’, and‘ Scientific Development’etc.. China also democratized its decision making process at a higher level of politics, on the other hand direct election system at a local and lower level. In economics area, China made a great changes from GDP growth, accepting capitalist, market system to admitting private ownership, enterprise system under the socialist market economic system. These changes contributed to the development of Chinese Characteristic Socialism. But it also gave chance to transform China into global state which should accept global standard all the sphere. It can demolish authoritarian Chinese regime. So we need to keep an eyes on the next step of CCP’s reform politics.

강택민 등장 이후 중국의 대한반도 정책과 전망

김승채 전남대학교 글로벌디아스포라연구소 1999 전남대학교 세계한상문화연구단 국내학술회의 Vol.1999 No.6

[기획 : 굴기하는 중국…흔들리는 동북아] 중국, '아닌 것은 아니다'...국격 갖추었나?

김승채 평화문제연구소 2010 통일한국 Vol.324 No.-

[특집 : 오바마와 시진핑, 위기인가 기회인가] 중국: 시진핑 선장 제5세대호 출범...반부패 등 난제 산적

김승채 평화문제연구소 2012 통일한국 Vol.348 No.-

오뚜기 등소평,그는 누구인가

김승채 북한연구소 1995 北韓 Vol.- No.279

수교 10년 한,중관계 어디까지 왔나 한반도 평화체제 구축에 힘 모을 때

김승채 평화문제연구소 2002 통일한국 Vol.224 No.-