데이터 마이닝을 활용한 한국 프로야구 구단의 승패예측과 승률 향상을 위한 전략 도출 연구

김원종 ( Kim Won-jong ),최연식 ( Choi Yeon-sik ),유동희 ( Yoo Dong-hee ) 한국스포츠산업경영학회 2018 한국스포츠산업경영학회지 Vol.23 No.3

본 연구에서는 데이터 마이닝 기법을 활용하여 한국 프로야구의 승패예측모형을 구축하는 실험을 진행하였다. 이를 위해, 2017년에 실시된 한국 프로야구 10개 구단의 전체 경기 중 무승부 경기를 제외한 1,418경기에 대한 자료를 사용하였다. 승패예측모형에는 의사결정나무, 베이즈넷, 인공신경망 알고리즘과 앙상블 기법인 배깅과 부스팅이 사용되었으며, 그 결과 배깅 기법에 인공신경망을 적용한 예측모형에서 가장 높은 예측률인 85.18%를 기록하였다. 다음으로 의사결정나무 기반 예측모형을 활용하여 한국 프로야구 전체 구단에 관한 8개의 승패규칙을 도출하였다. 여기에서 승패규칙은 승패예측에 영향을 미치는 주요 요인들인 팀출루율, 팀타율, 피안타, 안타, 타석, 타수로 표현되며, 도출된 규칙을 바탕으로 구단의 승률 향상에 도움을 주는 전략을 제안하였다. 또한 플레이오프 진출 구단과 미진출 구단에 관한 승리규칙을 각각 4개씩 도출하였고 이를 바탕으로 두 집단에 맞춤화된 승률 향상 전략을 제시하였으며, 실제 구단에서 선수를 영입한 방향과의 비교를 통해 제시된 전략의 활용 가능성을 확인하였다. This study conducted an experiment to develop win-loss prediction models for the Korean professional baseball league using data mining techniques. To this end, we used data on 1,418 games from all games played by the ten Korean professional baseball teams in 2017, except draw games. We developed win-loss prediction models using not only a decision tree, Bayse net, and artificial neural network algorithms, but also ensemble methods, such as bagging and boosting. As a result, first, we found that the artificial neural network-based prediction model using the bagging method reported the best accuracy (85.18%). Second, we derived eight win-loss rules for entire teams from the decision tree-based prediction model. These rules consist of six influential factors: team on base average, team batting average, hit by opponent, hit, plate appearances, and at bat. Using the derived rules, we proposed helpful strategies for improving the winning rate. Third, we derived four winning rules for both playoff teams and non-playoff teams; using the rules we proposed customized strategies for improving the winning rate of the two different groups. Finally, we confirmed the feasibility of the proposed strategies by comparing non-playoff teams’ actual player recruitment strategies.

야뇨증 환아들의 심리사회적 특성에 대한 다기관 연구 : 행동 및 정서 문제를 중심으로

조수철,김재원,신민섭,황준원,한상원,박관현,이상돈,김경도,김건석,서홍진,이유식,정재용,김영균,문두건,남궁미경,한창희,조원열,김영식,배기수,이종국,정우영,신의진 大韓神經精神醫學會 2005 신경정신의학 Vol.44 No.6

Objectives : The aim of this study was to examine the behavioral and emotional problems associated with nocturnal enuresis in Korean children. Methods : Three hundred eighteen children with nocturnal enuresis, together with their parents, completed the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL), Disruptive Behavior Disorder Scale according to DSM-IV (DBDS), Children's Depression Inventory (CDI), State-Trait Anxiety Inventory for Children (STAIC), and Piers-Harris Children's Self-Concept Scale (PHCSC). Ninety-three normal students were selected as the control group. Results : Compared to the normal control group, the mean scores with regard to the withdrawn, social problems, attention problems, delinquent behavior, aggressive behavior, externalizing problems and total problems profiles were significantly higher in the nocturnal enuresis group according to the CBCL results. The nocturnal enuresis group also scored significantly higher in the ADHD and ODD profiles of the DBDS. The nocturnal enuresis group was more depressed and anxious than the control group according to the results of the CDI and STAI. The mean score of the PHCSC was significantly lower in the nocturnal enuresis group when compared to the normal control group. Conclusion : The results of this study suggest that children with nocturnal enuresis in Korea have clinically relevant behavioral and emotional problems. The findings support the link between nocturnal enuresis and psychopathology in Korean children.

마산연안지역의 국지풍 순환 및 대기오염물질 확산에 관한 연구

김유근,이화운,문윤섭,김해동,원경미,정우식,오인보 부산대학교 환경문제연구소 1997 環境硏究報 Vol.15 No.1

To investigate a horizontal windrose and the mixing height in Masan coastal area, a local atmospheric flow and the concentration of air pollutants were analyzed by abserved data from AWS, airsonde and air sampler. The land-sea breeze model and the ISCST2 model of U. S. EPA(Environmental Protection Agency) were used to predict the concentration of air pollutants such as SO2 and TSP. As a result, during spring the principal wind direction in the Masan region is mainly represented by windrose of the WNW and NW, which can be induced by land breeze and the SE and SSW of sea breeze even if weak wind speed. The mixing height during the measurement was marked with the range from 400 m(0900 LST) to 1450 m(1500 LST), and the height of an inverse layer was presented as the range from 30 m(2100 LST) to 150 m(0300 LST). It is very important to cosider the local wind field for the accurate diffusion and movement of air pollutants in coastal urban area. The atmospheric flow was simulated by the two-dimensional local wind model upon considering the orographic characteristics such as land-sea contrast, mountain valley and urban building. The result of air quality simulated by ISCST2 support that the dispersion pattern of the pollutants in that area was followed as local circulation system in coastal urban area.

성장과 운동수행능력 향상에 도움을 주는 식이조성물의 개발

윤승원,정은희,양동식,이홍석,윤유식 대한지역사회영양학회 2003 대한지역사회영양학회지 Vol.8 No.3

We developed a dietary supplement using natural herbs and nutrients for the growth and exercise performance improvement. It called JR-22 supplement containing distilled extracts of natural herbs to remove bitterness and the addition of Vitamin B1, B6, Ca and xylitol. We investigated on the effect of JR-22 supplementation on the maximal exercise performance, IGF-1 (insulin like growth factor-1) concentration and antioxidant activity in SD rat model. In result, JR-22 supplement group was better than control group about 10% in exercise performance test and increased about 63% of IGF-1 concentration in blood. In addition, the oxidative damage induced by exercise was reduced by JR- 22 supplementation. Therefore, we suggested that JR-22 supplementation enhanced effectively exercise performance and IGF-1 concentration and reduced to oxidative stress in muscles. Also, we analysed biochemical factors in blood for the safety of JR-22 supplement. We known that there is no change of blood lactic acid, ammonia, inorganic phosphorous ion and creatine kinase activity.

스파크점화 기관의 회전형 흡배기장치의 개발에 의한 체적효율 향상에 관한 연구

김치원,윤창식,김유식 경남대학교 신소재연구소 1995 論文集 Vol.5 No.-

최근 자동차용 기관의 연구에 있어서는 고성능, 고효율과가 추진되고 있으며, 본 연구에서도 기관의 체적효율 향상을 달성하기 위하여 회전밸브를 설계 제작하였으며 기존의 포핏밸브와 실험적 방법을 통하여 비교하였다. 본 연구의 결과 회전식 흡배기 밸브장치에서 유입유동 저항이 현저하게 낮아짐으로서 체적효율의 향상을 기할 수 있었으며, 따라서 자동차용 기관의 성능이 높게 나타남을 확인할 수 있었다. In recent years, the study on the high efficiency of the internal combustion engine has been mainly proceeding. In this study, we developed rotary valve to achieve the improvement of volumetric efficiency and to be simple construction. And then made a comparative analysis between rotary and poppet valve. In this experiment, rotary valve enlarged the flow area of valve port to minimize the resistance of the fluid flow and to flow smoothly in intake and exhaust process. Indeed, valve timing was controlled properly lest positive pressure in exhaust process should affect intake process. Motoring and firing experiments were using engine speed and air-fuel ratio a s the principle parameter and the full opening of throttle valve and minimum spark advance for best torque(MBT) as engine operating variables.

한국에서의 간질의 사회적 낙인

이상암,유희정,허경,박형국,신동진,송홍기,정원영,권오영,이성수,김요식,김성은,이병인 대한간질학회 2002 대한간질학회지 Vol.6 No.2

산소배양환경이 치주인대에서 유래한 세포에 미치는 영향에 관한 형태학적 연구

김기영,유수경,김강주,사명희,양원식 원광대학교 생체재료·매식연구소 1996 원광생체재료·매식 Vol.5 No.1

This study was undertaken to investigate the effect of oxygen culture condition on the cells derived from human periodontal ligament by observation of morphological change. Human periodontal ligament fibroblasts were collected from premolars extracted for orthhodontic treatment and incubated in the environment of 37℃, 5% CO_2, 100% humidity. For the change of culture condition, O_2, CO_2 and N_2 gases were mixed with 10%, O_2, 5% CO_2 and 85% N_2 in hypoxic group, 90% O_2, 5% CO_2 and 5% N_2 in hyperoxic group, and 5% CO_2 and 95% air for control, and the cells were incubated in 37℃ for 2 and 4 days. The cells after incubation were measured for the quantity of total collagen by colorimetry and were stained for the observation of morphological change by direct immunfluoroscence method. After 2 days, the cells showed the decreased level of total collagen in the 10% O_2 and 90% O_2 cultured cells in contrast cells (Control : 9.33 ± 1.49, 10% O_2 : 5.32 ± 0.51, 90% O_2 : 5.82 ± 0.94). After 4 days, the cells increased the amount of total collagen in 10% O_2 and 90% O_2 groups but this value was not overtaken in control cells. In the morphological change, cells showed the 10% O_2 cultured cells after 2days atrophy of nucleus, hypertrophy of cytoplasm, and weakly stimulation of differentiation and growth in compared to control cells. After 4 days, cells showed cell necrosis and moderate hypertrophy of cytoplasm. The 90% O_2 cultured cells in 2 day groups, the nucleus was changed to oval and cells showed cellular swelling and partial death. At 4 days after culture, dead cells were increased and the nucleus became long and thin. These results suggest that periodontal ligament cell might induce irreversible cellular adaption by hypoxia and hyperoxia condition, and consequently rapid irreversible cellular adaption might be induced by hyperoxia condition.

장내의 탄수화물과 지방 흡수 억제를 통한 체지방 및 비만 개선 효과에 관한 연구

정은희,윤승원,이홍석,윤유식,유경미,황인경 한국조리과학회 2003 한국식품조리과학회지 Vol.19 No.1

In a previous study, a dietary supplement was developed in our lab using natural herbal extracts against digest enzyme activity in GI tract for weight control. This natural herbal extracts could regulate absorption of glucose and lipid by the inhibition of digest enzyme activity. In this study, we screened the natural herbs that inhibit glucoamylase activity and developed an water extract of cinnamon. The cinnamon extract delayed and decreased the increment of carbohydrate degradation through the inhibition of glucoamylase activity in vitro. Fifty volunteers were subjected to the intake of the herbal extracts by taking twice a day for 60 days. As a result, the treated subjects lost 3kg of body weight and 3.5kg of body fat mass after the treatment. Furthermore, the body mass index and waist size were significantly decreased during the experimental period. Above results suggested that the administration of the dietary additives composed of cinnamon and natural herbal extract improves the obesity by the decrement of body weight and body fat mass.

부산광역시의 대기질 변화경향 및 특성에 관한 연구

이화운,김유근,원경미,홍정혜,문윤섭,장난심,정우식 부산대학교 환경문제연구소 1997 環境硏究報 Vol.15 No.1

실험계획법을 이용한 능동형 미소혼합기의 근사최적화

박재용,이원구,유진식,김용대,한석영,맹주성 한국공작기계학회 2008 한국공작기계학회 춘계학술대회논문집 Vol.2008 No.-

An active micro-mixer, which was composed of an oscillating micro-stirrer in the microchannel to provide rapid, effective mixing at high flow rates was analyzed. The effects of molecular diffusion and disturbance by the stirrer were considered with regard to two types of mixer models: the simple straight microchannel and microchannel with an oscillating stirrer. Two types of mixer models were studied by analyzing mixing behaviors such as their interactionafter the stirrer. The mixing was calculated by Lattice Boltzmann methods using the D2Q9 model, In this study, the time-averaged mixing index formula was used to estimate the mixing performance of time-dependent flow. The mixing indices of the two models were compared. From the results, it was found that the mixer with an oscillating stirrer was much more enhanced and stabilized. Therefore, an approximate optimization of an active micro-mixer with an oscillating stirrer was performed using Kriging method with OLHD(Optima1 Latin Hypercube Design) in order to obtain a optimum solution. The design parameters were established as the frequency, the length and the angle of the stirrer, and the optimal values were determined to be 1.0346, 0.66D and ±45°, respectively. It was found that the mixing index of the optimal design increased by 88.72% compared with that of the original design.