Technology Transfer and Productivity Growth in the EU New Member States: Role of Trade and Foreign Direct Investment

UTAI UPRASEN 국제지역학회 2011 국제지역연구 Vol.15 No.3

This paper studies the contribution of imports and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) as a vehicle of technology transfer onto the EU new member states at both macroeconomic and industry level. The paper takes the effectiveness of the recipient’s utilization into account by constructing a new index, the so-called Effective Absorption (EA) Index, to measure ability to absorb and utilize the foreign technology in the recipient country. Using data from 12 donors and 10 recipients from 1998 to 2009, the study at macroeconomic level indicates that technical spillovers of foreign research and development (R&D) play more crucial role relatively to domestic R&D on total factor productivity (TFP) growth of the new member states. Imports are found as the major vehicle of technical spillovers rather than inward FDI. The study at industry level is conducted by using data from 17 manufacturing industries of 10 donors and 6 recipients during 1998 to 2009. The empirical results also support the findings at country level. The patterns of technology transfer are different across industries. Nonetheless, technical spillovers exhibit significantly high contribution on TFP growth in high-tech manufacturing industries.

The Handbook of European Welfare Systems Edited by Klaus Schubert, Simon Hegelich and Ursula Bazant

( Utai Uprasen ) 부산외국어대학교 지중해연구소 2010 The Mediterranean Review Vol.3 No.2

유럽연합에 대한 한국과 미국의 수출경쟁 대체 탄력성 분석을 중심으로

Utai Uprasen 부경대학교 인문사회과학연구소 2014 인문사회과학연구 Vol.15 No.2

This paper attempts to explain the export competition between Korea and the U.S. in the European Union market. The degree of competition is measured by estimating for elasticity of substitution using a refined simple demand model. The experiment has been conducted at industry level of HS 2-digit for 15 major export industries of Korea and the U.S. into the European market. The monthly time series data cover the period from 1999:1 to 2013:3. The empirical findings show that although the market share of the U.S. product in the EU market is higher than the share of Korea commodity, Korea has higher competitiveness in exports against those of the U.S. in the EU market in four industries: HS27 (mineral fuels), HS72 (iron and steel), HS89 (ships and boats) and HS90 (optical products). In addition, the degree of export competition in each industry is examined at disaggregate level (HS 4-digit) using the Rivalry Threat Index. The results at HS-4 digit support the empirical outcomes of HS-2 digit experiments. The findings of this article provide the policy implication that Korea should emphasize and support the exports of those four industries in order to compete with the exports from the U.S. in the EU market after the enforcement of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (The EU-US Free Trade Agreement) in the near future. 본 논문은 유럽연합에서 한국과 미국의 수출품 간의 경쟁에 대한 분석을 시도한다. 수정된 단순 수요모형을 바탕으로, 대체탄력성의 측정을 통해 두 국가 간의 경쟁의 정도가 추정되었다. 유럽연합에 대한 한국과 미국의 15개 주요 수출산업에 대해 HS 2단위 수준에서, 분석이 실시되었다. 추정을 위한 월별 시계열자료는 1999년 1월에서 2013년 3월에 걸친 자료를 사용하였다. 실증연구의 결과는, 비록 유럽연합시장에서 미국상품의 시장점유율이 한국상품의 점유율보다 높지만, 한국은 유럽연합시장에서 4개 산업 - HS27 (광물성연료), HS72 (철강), HS89 (조선), HS90 (광학기기) -에서 미국상품에 비해 더 높은 수출 경쟁력을 가진 것으로 나타나고 있다. 더 세밀한 실증분석을 위하여, 각 개별산업의 수출경쟁력을 HS 4단위 수준으로 세분화하여 경쟁위협지수를 사용하여 추정을 진행하였다. HS 4단위에서 진행된 분석결과역시도 HS 2단위 실증분석 결과를 뒷받침하고 있다. 본 논문 분석의 정책적 함의는, 가까운 장래에 환대서양 무역투자협정(TTIP)이 발효된 후에는 한국이 EU시장에서 미국 수출품과의 경쟁에 대비하여, 위의 4개 산업을 지원해야 한다는 것이다.

유럽연합에 대한 한국과 미국의 수출경쟁 대체 탄력성 분석을 중심으로

UTAI UPRASEN 부경대학교 인문사회과학연구소 2014 인문사회과학연구 Vol.15 No.2

This paper attempts to explain the export competition between Korea and the U.S. in the European Union market. The degree of competition is measured by estimating for elasticity of substitution using a refined simple demand model. The experiment has been conducted at industry level of HS 2-digit for 15 major export industries of Korea and the U.S. into the European market. The monthly time series data cover the period from 1999:1 to 2013:3. The empirical findings show that although the market share of the U.S. product in the EU market is higher than the share of Korea commodity, Korea has higher competitiveness in exports against those of the U.S. in the EU market in four industries: HS27 (mineral fuels), HS72 (iron and steel), HS89 (ships and boats) and HS90 (optical products). In addition, the degree of export competition in each industry is examined at disaggregate level (HS 4-digit) using the Rivalry Threat Index. The results at HS-4 digit support the empirical outcomes of HS-2 digit experiments. The findings of this article provide the policy implication that Korea should emphasize and support the exports of those four industries in order to compete with the exports from the U.S. in the EU market after the enforcement of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (The EU-US Free Trade Agreement) in the near future.

The Impact of Official Development Assistance on the Economic Growth of the Solomon Islands

UTAI UPRASEN 부경대학교 글로벌지역학연구소 2022 Journal of Global and Area Studies(JGA) Vol.6 No.3

The Solomon Islands is a least developed country in the Pacific Ocean. As a low-income country, its economic development has been significantly relied on official development assistance (ODA). According to the economic growth theory, ODA is a vital contributor to the economic development of a low-income economy. Nonetheless, the existing literature shows inconclusive empirical findings. This paper fills the research gap by scrutinizing the effect of ODA on the economic growth of the Solomon Islands. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is adopted using the annual data from 1980 to 2019. The empirical findings from the ARDL model indicate the positive impact of ODA on economic growth, but with a marginal effect. A one percent increase in ODA raises 0.07 percent of per capita GDP. The Toda-Yamamoto approach of Granger causality analysis is performed for the robustness check. The finding from the Toda-Yamamoto method suggests that there is no causal relationship running from ODA toward the economic growth of the Solomon Islands.

The Impact of the EU-US FTA on Trade of the New Member States

Utai Uprasen 한국유럽학회 2014 유럽연구 Vol.32 No.4

유럽연합국가(EU28)가 기존 국가들(EU15)과 신규 회원국(NMS13)의 결합이라고 보았을 때, NMS13의 최대 무역 대상은 EU15라는 것을 통계를 통해서 알 수 있다. EU-미국 FTA 협정에 따르면, EU15와 NMS13 그리고 미국 사이에 현존하는 무역 패턴은 NMS13과 미국 사이의 무역 기회를 증가시킬 뿐만 아니라, 미국에서 EU15개국 시장으로의 잠재적인 수출 증가로 인해 NMS13에서 EU15를 대상으로 한 수출에서 높은 대체효과를 가져온다. 본 연구는 질적 및 양적 분석방법을 모두 사용함으로써 두 잠재적인 영향에 관해 설명한다. 무역기회의 증가는 현시비교우위지수를 사용하는 SITC Rev.4산업의 3-digit level에서 자세히 조사된다. NMS13의 수출에 대한 잠재적인 대체효과는 중력모형을 사용함으로써 조사된다. 경험적 추정에 따르면, 대체효과는 NMS13 26개 주요 산업 중 13개에서 발견된다. 연구결과는 NMS13의 관점에서, EU-미국 FTA 협정이 미국이 수출 경쟁자인 동시에 무역 파트너의 역할을 한다는 것을 보여준다. 정책 시사점은 NMS13이 미국 내 시장에서 미국 상품들과 경쟁하기 위해서 산업의 경쟁 력과 효율성을 향상시킬 필요가 있을 뿐만 아니라, 13개의 산업 중 EU 15개 시장에서 미국 상품들과 경쟁할 수 있는 산업의 경쟁력을 증가시킬 필요가 있다고 보여 진다. When the European Union countries (EU28) are viewed as the composition between the old member countries (EU15) and the new member states (NMS13), the existing patterns of trade among the EU15, the NMS13, and the US may create both an increase in trade opportunity between the NMS13 and the US and a higher displacement effect on exports from the NMS13 to the EU15 destination due to the EU-US FTA agreement. This research examines potential impacts by employing both qualitative and quantitative analyses. The increase in trade opportunity is scrutinized by calculating the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index. The potential displacement effect on exports of the NMS13 is examined by employing the gravity model. According to the empirical results, the displacement effects are detected in 13 out of 26 major industries of the NMS13. The research findings indicate that from the point of view of the NMS13, the EU-US FTA agreement may cause the US to act as a trade partner and as an export competitor simultaneously. The policy implications can be drawn for the NMS13 that the NMS13 needs to increase the level of competitiveness of its industries to compete with the US products in the EU15 market in 13 industries.

The Impacts of International Remittances on Economic Growth and Human Development of Haiti

( Utai Uprasen ) 부경대학교 글로벌지역학연구소 2018 Journal of Global and Area Studies(JGA) Vol.2 No.2

Haiti is a member of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM). According to the World Bank, Haiti is a low income country. The international remittance is the most important source of foreign earning of Haiti. The statistics from the World Bank in 2017 revealed that Haiti was the 4th country as a recipient of the remittances of the world. The remittance inflow accounted for 29 per cent of its GDP. Although, the international remittance is the most important source of foreign income in Haiti, its contribution to economic development has not been rigorously analyzed. Consequently, this study examines the impact of remittance on economic growth of Haiti using time-series data model over the period from 1970 to 2017. The empirical results from the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model indicate the negative impact of remittance on economic growth. This finding is confirmed by the result from the Toda-Yamamoto Granger non-causality analysis. However, our findings show that the remittance contributes to the people’s wellbeing, which is represented by the Human Development Index (HDI).

Role of Exchange Rate on Trade Balance and J-curve Effect between Thailand and Malaysia: An Industry Level Analysis

UTAI UPRASEN 한국외국어대학교 동남아연구소 2018 東南亞硏究 Vol.28 No.2

The existing literature regarding the role of real exchange rate on balance of trade reveals mixed empirical findings. The remarkable argument for the inconclusive results is the aggregation bias emanating from aggregating either trading partners or trading commodities in the study. This paper scrutinizes the role of exchange rate on trade balance of Thailand vis-à-vis Malaysia at disaggregated level using annual data (1971-2017) at 2-digit level of 27 SITC industries with the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Our findings show that a depreciation of Thai Baht (THB) against Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) causes improvement on Thailand’s trade balance rather than generating a J-curve phenomenon in the short run. The J-curve effects are detected in 6 industries which account for 8.49 per cent of Thailand’s total trade share with Malaysia. The positive long run effects of a real depreciation of THB against MYR on Thailand’s trade balance are found in 10 industries which represent 29.75 per cent of Thailand-Malaysia total trade values. Our empirical findings provide an important policy implication for Thailand. The estimation results imply that the exchange rate policy is still an important measure to improve trade balance of certain industries of Thailand against Malaysia. Nonetheless, a depreciation of THB against MYR will also worsen trade balance of 6 products in the short run, caused by the J-curve effects. Therefore, the authorities should implement the policy cautiously.

The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Korea-Japan Trade Flows: An Industry Level Analysis

Utai Uprasen,Maria Bruna Zolin 한국무역연구원 2017 무역연구 Vol.13 No.3

The existing literature, in both theoretical and empirical viewpoints, indicates that there is no consensus regarding the effects of exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade flows. It can show the different effects across countries and industries. This article examines impact of volatility of exchange rate on 57 importing and 69 exporting industries of Korea vis-à-vis Japan. The study is conducted by employing disaggregated trade data (3-digit level of SITC product) to avoid the aggregation bias problem. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration model is adopted in the empirical estimation, using annual data during 1970 to 2016. The findings indicate that the exchange rate volatility affects bilateral trade flows between Korea and Japan in both short run and long run. Nevertheless, the majority of industries are unaffected in the long run. The number of negatively affected industries are remarkably higher than the positively affected ones in both exporting and importing products. The machinery and transport equipment (SITC7) are the most negatively affected commodities of both importing and exporting products. While the effects of income on bilateral trade flows are in line with the theoretical prediction, the majority of industries are not affected by the real exchange rate in the long run.

Roles of Macroeconomic Variables as the Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Hungary

UTAI UPRASEN 한국외국어대학교 EU연구소 2016 EU연구 Vol.- No.44

The existing literature on determinants of inward FDI in Hungary mostly adopted a panel data model as the empirical framework. This study examines the roles of macroeconomic variables as the determinants of FDI. The time series model: an autoregressive distributed lag(ARDL) cointegration model is employed for the empirical analysis, using the quarterly data during 1998:Q1-2015:Q4. The empirical results indicate that there is a long run relationship between macroeconomic variables and inward FDI. In addition, in the long run relationship, the country’s GDP, money supply and interest rate have positive relationships with FDI, whereas the real effective exchange rate shows negative relations with the FDI. The inflation rate and degree of trade openness play no role as determinants of FDI. The results from the Toda-Yamamoto approach for the Granger causality test support the findings of the ARDL model. The research findings imply that market-seeking FDI still plays a significant role in Hungary. The important policy implication is that in order to attract more inward FDI, Hungary needs to effectively manage their GDP, money supply, exchange rates and interest rates, rather than their inflation rates and trade liberalization.